Monday, December 12, 2022

😒 Beware This Subtle Way A Company Can Get into Trouble

Good morning. While investors are focused on earnings, trends such as sales can provide...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. While investors are focused on earnings, trends such as sales can provide an important clue for how a company is performing operationally.

One subtle trend is to watch a company's inventory. Rising inventories can be troublesome, as it could be a sign of slowing sales or overproduction. And to clear inventory, companies often have to engage in steep discounts. The latest example Lululemon (LULU), which recently saw its inventories jump to $1.8 billion. That's a lot of yoga pants.

Traders should watch this trend, as it can be a sign of a company in trouble. The good news? Declining inventories can be a sign of improving pricing power.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,476.46 -0.90%
S&P 3,934.38 -0.73%
NASDAQ 11,004.62 -0.70%
*As of market close
Stocks traded lower on Friday, after higher-than-expected inflation data.
Oil closed flat, at $71.44 per barrel.
Gold rose 0.3 percent, hitting $1,807 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies generally traded lower, with Bitcoin going for $17,114 at the market close

Today's TOP TIPS
This Takeover Target May Continue to Thrive on Its Own
The stock market's love of mergers and acquisitions has slowed in the past year, amid rising interest rates and declining stock prices. But there have been a few deals announced. Mergers can make companies bigger overall by providing an immediate and established source of revenue.

Some deals will end up garnering regulatory scrutiny. Regulators want to ensure that a company doesn't come to dominate the market it's in via acquisitions.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: New York Community Bank (NYCB)
Marshall Lux, a director at New York Community Bank (NYCB), recently added 6,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 42 percent, and came to a total cost just under $52,000.

The director was also the most recent buyer with the purchase of 6,000 shares in September. Other company directors have been buyers over the past three years. There have been no insider sales at the bank going back over the last five years.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Roblox (RBLX)
Shares of 3D world-building company Roblox (RBLX) are down about 75 percent in the past year. One trader sees a further decline in the coming weeks.

That's based on the January 13th $30 puts. With 32 days until expiration, 5,037 contracts traded compared to a prior interest of 238, for a 21-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $2.19 to make the downside bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Consumer Sentiment Improves

Consumer sentiment rose to 59.1 for December, a slight increase compared to the read of 56.8 in November. That also came in higher than expectations for a read of 56.9. The move comes amid the holiday shopping season, historically one of the strongest times for consumers.
PPI Inflation Continues to Rise

Producer price inflation, a measure of the costs to the manufacturers of goods, rose 0.3 percent in the most recent read. That's a sign that inflation may continue to run hotter than expected, even after rates have started to show year-over-year declines.
Natural Gas Supplies Drop Amid Cold Snap

Cold weather in Europe is causing a jump in demand for natural gas, with a 44 percent rise last week compared to the week prior. The UK reports that demand is set to rise 65 percent. The moves come as natural gas inventories remain low heading into the cold season.
UK Prepares Finance Sector Reforms

The United Kingdom is preparing a number of reform proposals designed to help the country become the next Silicon Valley. The proposals include strengthening the country's university system as well as tech and life sciences sectors, and would take 20 years to play out.
Unicorn Airtable Prepares Layoffs

Airtable, a privately-held company valued at $11 billion, is preparing to lay off 250 employees. That's about 25 percent of staff. The layoffs are about on par with other layoff announcements across the tech space. The company reported that it overly staffed during the past two years, on expectations for further growth.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
PARA  5.083%
TSLA  3.235%
NFLX 3.143%
WBD 3.067%
VNO 2.084%
BOTTOM
SLB 5.91%
ETSY 5.74%
HAL 5.334%
DXCM 5.062%
RL 4.12%

Quote of the Day
The market is still trying to decide if it wants higher or lower rates, but right now it likely just wants 'stable' rates. Bonds are extremely overbought by most metrics on a daily timeframe, so a pullback (higher rates) is likely in the near term. It will be interesting to see how equities react in that scenario.
- Jonathan Krinsky, analyst at BTIG, on the market's recent volatility, which has been more notable in changing bond yields than in stock prices.

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