Axios World: Biden Africa scoop

Plus: China's cases rise | Monday, December 12, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Babbel   Axios World By Dave Lawler · Dec 12, 2022 Welcome back to Axios World. We're focusing tonight (1,900 words, 7 minutes) on Africa, and more specifically on the big U.S.-Africa summit that's coming to town this week. We've also got rising COVID cases in China, and a story to watch on Iran's missiles. Heads up: Axios will be at the 2023 World Economic Forum in Davos. If you'll be there, request an invite for our events.     1 big thing: Scoop... Biden to announce Africa trip President Biden speaks with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at last year's G-7 summit. Photo: Leon Neal/Getty Images   President Biden is planning a multi-country trip to Africa next year, with an announcement expected to be made at this week's U.S.-Africa summit, two sources familiar with the plans tell Axios' Hans Nichols and me. Why it matters: U.S. officials want the summit to be a mixture of substance and symbolism. The Biden administration hopes that announcing a presidential visit to sub-Saharan Africa will send a clear signal that the U.S. is serious about deepening ties to the continent. The big picture: With representatives from 49 African countries visiting Washington, the White House is using the pageantry of a summit to convince leaders that Africa is a priority — and move relations beyond the security concerns, humanitarian crises and human rights abuses that have dominated in the past. Biden will also highlight his support for an African seat on the UN Security Council and announce that he wants the African Union to join the G-20 as a permanent member, according to U.S. officials. National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden would announce $55 billion in initiatives over the next three years during the summit. The White House declined to comment on Biden's specific travel plans, though Sullivan told reporters today that there will be an announcement about a "broad-based commitment" by administration officials to travel to the continent in 2023. Between the lines: Any presidential trip to Africa will set off jockeying among countries looking to host a high-level guest as a validation of their policies and a signal to investors. Team Biden will have to weigh regional rivalries, as well as security concerns, before finalizing the itinerary. Flashback: For the first nine months of Biden's administration, none of the senior-most foreign policy officials visited Africa. Instead, they visited European allies and countries in Southeast Asia that have become a focus of U.S.-China competition. Since then, though, Secretary of State Tony Blinken has visited the continent multiple times, including in August to announce the new U.S. Africa strategy, which emphasizes the continent's growing global importance. Still, Biden's public call logs included conversations with only three sub-Saharan African leaders as of last month, per Politico. He's yet to visit the continent beyond a stop in Egypt for the COP27 climate summit. Donald Trump was the first president since Ronald Reagan not to visit sub-Saharan Africa. The Biden administration aims to show that things have come a long way since Trump's tenure — and since Barack Obama hosted the only previous U.S.-Africa summit in 2014. What they're saying: "This administration starts with the conviction that Africans are critical to addressing the most challenging problems of our time. It's a different frame than previous administrations. It's a focus on what we do with Africans, not just what we do in Africa," a senior administration official told Axios ahead of the summit. Biden isn't expected to announce a single signature policy, like George W. Bush's program to fight AIDS, or Obama's attempt to double electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa. The official said there would be "deliverables" in the areas of food security, health care, infrastructure, digital technology, security and governance.     Part II: U.S. lags behind in summitry with Africa President Xi Jinping hosts the China-Africa summit in 2018. Photo: How Hwee Young/AFP via Getty Images   Unmentioned in the agenda, but looming over the entire summit, is China, which holds summits with Africa every three years either in Beijing or on the continent. In the eight years since Obama hosted the previous summit, Russia, Turkey the Gulf states, the European Union, France and Japan have also all held summits with African leaders, with many of those recurring at a regular cadence. 43 heads of state or government went to Sochi in 2019 to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for a summit that doubled as an arms expo. Japan pledged $30 billion in development aid this August during a Japan-Africa summit in Tunisia. Turkey and the UAE have made major investments in areas ranging from construction to fintech. China's trade with Africa was five times the U.S. total last year, and Beijing can offer loans and infrastructure projects that the U.S. won't, says Gyude Moore, who attended three "Africa-plus-one" summits while serving as public works minister of Liberia. However, the U.S. can leverage its private sector investment and expertise in areas like health, he says. U.S. officials won't focus this week on countering China, but instead on what the U.S. can offer, the senior Biden administration official said. There will be sessions on issues like climate change and space cooperation, not just the security and humanitarian prisms of the past, the official added. That's important because "if you only have a partnership based on security to offer, that means you see the continent as a threat for the world," says Rama Yade, director of the Atlantic Council's Africa Center, noting that Africa is home to some of the world's fastest-growing economies and populations. "It's critically important for the U.S. to take the initiative because Africans don't expect to be lectured. I think what they expect is to become strategic partners for the U.S.," she says. What to watch: Senegalese President Macky Sall, who holds the African Union's rotating chair, told the NYT ahead of this week's summit: "Let no one tell us 'no, don't work with so-and-so, just work with us.' We want to work and trade with everyone." If Sall's comments are any gauge, Biden still has some convincing to do this week and during his trip to Africa. "When we talk, we're often not listened to, or in any case, not with enough interest," Sall added.     Part III: A controversial guest list President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Prime MInister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia are expected to attend. Photo: Minasse Wondimu Hailu/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images   In contrast with the Summit of the Americas and Biden's Summit for Democracy, the administration elected to invite countries of all political stripes. Breaking it down: Only leaders who recently took power in coups (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Sudan) or don't have diplomatic relations with the U.S. (Eritrea) were excluded. Zimbabwe President Emmerson Mnangagwa wasn't invited because he's under U.S. sanctions, but representatives of his government were. That means invitations went out to Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed, who has waged a brutal civil war, and Equatorial Guinea's Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who extended the world's longest presidential tenure through a sham election last month. Asked about criticism from activists over that approach, the senior U.S. official said "engagement is not a deliverable" and noted that members of civil society were invited as well. Between the lines: It's no longer really an option for the U.S. to try to isolate governments it sees as corrupt or abusing human rights, says Moore, who is now a fellow at the Center for Global Development. "20 years ago, when China wasn't on the scene, if the U.S. and the EU put you in a corner, you were in a corner," he says. "Now the Russians have become active, the Chinese are, the Turkish are... the space is now contested." After it emerged that China was seeking a potential military base in Equatorial Guinea, for example, the U.S. sent two high-level delegations to pitch Obiang on cooperation with Washington. "There's no exclusivity anymore," Yade says. "[African countries] have diversified their partners. They follow their national interests." All but "a couple" of the invited countries will be represented by their head of state or government, the U.S. official said, but no one-on-one meetings with Biden have been announced. If Biden doesn't personally engage much in smaller settings, some leaders will interpret that as a sign of disrespect given that they've all traveled to Washington, Moore says. They'll also be watching to see if the next summit is announced, after eight years without one, he says. "If African governments walk away from here knowing in three years there's going to be another summit, that is a very substantive takeaway because it allows some sort of rhythm to the relationship."     A message from Babbel Say "ja" to learning a new language     Babbel has what you need to learn how to hold real-world conversations in Dutch, Spanish and more. Learn through: Expert-curated lessons. Speech technology that improves your accent. Context and cultural tips. Live online classes or videos. Speak a new language in as little as three weeks.     Bonus: Where in the world? Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios   'Tis the season... can you place these 11 cities in order from closest to farthest from the North Pole? Bangkok Beijing Berlin Buenos Aires Cairo Cape Town London Melbourne Mexico City Saint Petersburg Toronto Scroll to the bottom for answers.     Part IV: Don't forget the Sahel Displaced children at a camp in Burkina Faso. Photo: Giles Clarke/UNOCHA via Getty Images   One area that may not get much attention this week is the Sahel, where countries have experienced coups, crop failures and chronic insecurity fueled by extremist groups. The big picture: Siaka Millogo, Mercy Corps' director for Burkina Faso and Niger, tells Axios those factors are combining to create a worsening humanitarian disaster. The UN says 18 million people in the West African region are "on the brink of starvation." Those people fall broadly into three groups, Millogo says. Some have been displaced by violence and have thus lost their food source. Others live in areas where there is simply insufficient food, often due to drought. The violence may make it hard for aid groups to reach them. In some areas there is food in the market, but rising prices have made it unaffordable, Millogo says. In such cases, Mercy Corps uses direct cash transfers to reach people. Political instability makes that work more difficult. Aid workers may develop contacts in a local agriculture ministry, Millogo says. Then, a few months later, the government will be ousted in a coup. Zoom out: Asked whether other conflicts like the war in Ukraine were pulling funding and attention away from the Sahel, Millogo replied, "I think you know the answer." It takes years for the Sahel to receive the amount of aid going into Ukraine every month or two, Millogo says.     5. Global news roundup Supporters of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party protest Saturday in Dhaka. Photo: Mamunur Rashid/NurPhoto via Getty Images   1. China is setting up new intensive care facilities in response to rising COVID-19 cases, AP reports. The big picture: The surge in cases comes after China began paring down its strict "zero COVID" policy last week following nationwide protests. 2. European Parliament Vice President Eva Kaili was one of four people arrested Wednesday in an investigation into alleged bribery by Qatar. Kaili, who is from Greece, has defended Qatar's human rights record in the past. Qatar denies paying any bribes. 3. Tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in Dhaka over the weekend to protest price rises and demand the resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Hasina has called opposition politicians "terrorists," and at least two opposition figures have been arrested. Security forces have cracked down hard. 4. At least two people have died during protests against the impeachment and arrest of former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo. New President Dina Boluarte responded by proposing in a televised address that Congress bring forward the next general elections to April 2024.     6. One to watch: Iran's missile deliveries Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, in Tehran on July 19. Photo: Sergei Savostyanov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images   Fearing international backlash, Iran wants to limit the range of the missiles it plans to provide Russia for the war in Ukraine, four senior Israeli officials tell Axios' Barak Ravid, citing intelligence reports. Why it matters: Iranian ballistic missile deliveries to Russia could violate a UN Security Council resolution and trigger a "snapback" mechanism, which would reimpose UN sanctions on Iran. Go deeper.     7. Stories we're watching A snowy night in Krakow, Poland. Photo: Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images   Lockerbie plane bombing suspect taken into U.S. custody Ukraine: Bakhmut in "ruins" after Russian attack; Ukraine strikes Melitopol; More U.S. aid Zelensky and Biden discuss U.S. air defense aid China's consumer sentiment crashes Hong Kong pro-democracy tycoon Jimmy Lai sentenced to 5 years U.S. forces kill two ISIS officials in eastern Syria RIP Grant Wahl Quoted: "As for the annual news conference, yes, there won't be one before the New Year, but we expect that the president will still find an opportunity to talk to [reporters], as he does regularly." — Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announcing that Putin won't hold his lengthy end-of-year press conference for the first time in a decade.     A message from Babbel Language lessons you can use in the real world     Language learning platform Babbel offers 10-minute lessons that are proven to help users learn a new language in just three weeks. How it's done: Instead of random phrases, you'll learn to hold real-world conversations with expert-curated lessons and more. Get up to 55% off your subscription.   Answers: 1. Saint Petersburg; 2. Berlin; 3. London; 4. Toronto; 5. Beijing; 6. Cairo; 7. Mexico City; 8. Bangkok; 9. Cape Town; 10. Bueno Aires; 11. Melbourne. Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: