😥Why You Shouldn’t Worry About Missing the Market’s Bullish Turn

Good morning. One trader is betting $4.5 million that the Fed will pivot starting early next year...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. One trader is betting $4.5 million that the Fed will pivot starting early next year – and that interest rates will drop to just 2 percent by mid-2023. If the trader is right, they stand to make a bundle. If not, the trade will lose it all. Traders may be tempted to make that sort of bet. But a Fed pivot will first start with a pause – where the central bank says they're done raising interest rates for now. That should lead to a modest rally for the stock market. And we'll see that trend continue as rates go down, whenever that happens. In short, a bull market turnaround is a process. It will take months to play out, much slower than the Covid crash and recovery in 2020. So traders don't need to make big bets on a change now. Rather, some patience will offer better returns. Until then, there are still plenty of good short-side trades until a pivot, and many companies are at a solid long-term entry price here. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Why 7 Billionaires Are Piling Into This Stock Thanks to a new battery technology, electric vehicles (EVs) may cost the same as gas-powered cars — by next year… and one company that pioneered this new technology could offer the investment of a lifetime. It has already attracted seven billionaire investors… The technology is protected by 200 patents… It is expected to trigger a 1,500% surge in EV sales over the next 4 years. See if this stock is a good fit for your portfolio. MARKETS DOW 33,745.69 +0.59% S&P 3,965.34 +0.48% NASDAQ 11,146.06 +0.01% *As of market close • Stocks closed higher on Friday, but were still down overall for the week. • Oil dropped 1.7 percent, closing at $80.26 per barrel. • Gold slid 0.7 percent, last going for about $1,750 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies traded flat, with Bitcoin at $16,641 at the stock market close. Today's TOP TIPS This Infrastructure Play May Prove One of the Best Income Investments Today With the stock market down so heavily, traders may feel hit hard. But looking at the market objectively, a big down year leads to lower valuations. And for income-generating investments like dividend stocks, it can mean higher starting yields. Investors who can buy growing companies with reasonable dividends can likely see both a higher share price and a higher dividend payout when things turn around. One area where investors can get both is in beaten-down infrastructure plays. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) Gregory Lucier, a director at Dentsply Sirona (XRAY), recently added 6,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by nearly 20 percent, and came to a total cost just under $189,000. This marks the first insider buy at the company in nearly a year. This year has seen one other insider transaction, with the sale of shares from a director. Over the past three years, insiders, mostly company directors, have been inclined to be sellers rather than buyers of shares. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) Shares of Chinese internet retailer Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) are down over 45 percent in the past year. One trader sees a further decline in shares by mid-2024. That's based on the June 2024 $60 puts. With 577 days until expiration, 3,147 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 126, for a 25-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $8.48 to make the bet. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • Home Sales Drop for Ninth Straight Month Existing home sales fell by 5.9 percent compared to September, hitting a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million. The drop was lower than expected, but sales are still down 28.4 percent compared to a year ago. Overall, the rate of sales is still near its lowest level since December 2011. • Jobless Claims Drop Slightly Initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 last week, to a seasonally-adjusted level of 222,000. That's close to the 2019 average of 218,000. That shows that the labor market is still tight, even among recent announcements of layoffs at large companies, notably tech companies. • Amazon CEO Sees Further Job Cuts Going Into 2023 Andy Jassy, CEO at Amazon (AMZN), sees further cuts at the company occurring next year. The company's planning process is underway, and leaders are expected to make adjustments to their teams. The move comes after the company announced a layoff of 10,000 last week. • Ticketmaster Facing Antitrust Action Over Taylor Swift Ticket Debacle Privately-held Ticketmaster is facing antitrust scrutiny from a number of politicians following the platform's issues while selling tickets for Taylor Swift's latest tour. The company noted that 3.5 million registered for a presale program, and that 1.5 million were put on a waiting list. • Bahama Regulators Seize FTX Assets Regulators in the Bahamas have acknowledged that they've transferred assets from FTX into their custody. The regulators have stated that they do not believe the company's Bahama subsidiary was subject to Chapter 11 proceedings. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP ROST 9.915% RXO 5.706% LNC  4.039% ELV 3.807% KEYS 3.602% BOTTOM LYV 6.931% FTNT 3.491% FANG 3.406% EOG  2.699% WYNN 2.666% Quote of the Day Additional monetary tightening and the cumulative impact of this year's rate hikes suggest recession risks remain elevated. We continue to believe that the macroeconomic preconditions for a sustainable rally—that interest rate cuts and a trough in growth and corporate earnings are on the horizon—are not yet in place. - Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer, on stocks are not ready to get out of the current bear market and into a sustained bull market. Sponsored Content Why 7 Billionaires Are Piling Into This Stock Thanks to a new battery technology, electric vehicles (EVs) may cost the same as gas-powered cars — by next year… and one company that pioneered this new technology could offer the investment of a lifetime. It has already attracted seven billionaire investors… The technology is protected by 200 patents… It is expected to trigger a 1,500% surge in EV sales over the next 4 years. See if this stock is a good fit for your portfolio. Not sure the best way to get started? 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