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Plus: Bravery at World Cup | Monday, November 21, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Babbel   Axios World By Dave Lawler · Nov 21, 2022 Welcome back to Axios World. Tonight's edition (1,916 words, 7 minutes) starts with the World Cup before heading to Malaysia, Indonesia, Zambia and North Korea. Heads up: We'll be off on Thursday for Thanksgiving. My thanks to you for reading.     1 big thing: The politics of the World Cup Iran fans watch the match in Doha, Qatar. Photo: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg via Getty Images   When Iran's national anthem rang out ahead of their opening World Cup match against England in Doha, Qatar, this morning, the players stared ahead in stone-faced silence. Driving the news: That remarkable moment came a day after captain Ehsan Hajsafi spoke in solidarity with the protests that began two months ago after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in custody after being arrested by Iran's morality police for "improper hijab." "They should know that we sympathize with them," Hajsafi said, adding: "I hope the situation changes as the people wish and that everyone will be happy." Many Iran fans in the stadium booed the national anthem and some waved banners with the rallying cry of the protesters: "Woman, Life, Freedom." The team faced criticism before the tournament for attending a ceremony in Tehran alongside President Ebrahim Raisi. After Iran's 6-2 loss, coach Carlos Queiroz seemed to blame the fans for putting an additional burden on the players. "You don't even imagine behind the scenes what these kids have been living ... . Whatever they say, they want to kill them," he said. Iranian authorities have criticized and in some cases even arrested celebrities who have backed the protests. Meanwhile, England's Harry Kane was one of seven European team captains who had planned to wear a "one love arm" band to protest the fact that homosexuality is illegal in Qatar. They all backed off after being threatened with "sporting sanctions" (likely yellow cards) by the tournament's organizers, FIFA, who urged all participating teams to "focus on the football." The World Cup is one of the world's biggest stages, and politics never entirely remain at home — something FIFA itself tacitly acknowledged when it banned Russia from qualifying after the invasion of Ukraine. Flashback: FIFA controversially awarded this tournament in 2010 to a tiny kingdom with enormous wealth but almost no pedigree in the sport, little of the required infrastructure, and a climate so hot the tournament had to belatedly be moved to winter. Since then, most of FIFA's top leaders have been ousted or charged with corruption, though bribery accusations surrounding Qatar's bid haven't been proven. Thousands of migrant laborers in Qatar have reportedly died on the job. Qatar's international profile has grown dramatically in those 12 years in the global economy, thanks to its enormous natural gas reserves, but also in sports, as takeovers of top clubs by Qatar and other Gulf states reshape European club soccer. Qatari leaders have decried the harsh scrutiny the kingdom is facing as unprecedented and unfair. There have certainly been controversial hosts before: Russia in 2018; Argentina's brutal military junta in 1978; Benito Mussolini's Italy in 1934. But while activists and soccer stars have been protesting Qatar, world leaders generally have not. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman donned a scarf in Qatar's colors as he attended the opening ceremony alongside Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani — just five years after MBS helped launch a blockade of Qatar, which ended in 2021. The leaders of Turkey and Egypt also shared a handshake during the opening ceremony, with Al-Thani looking on, in a sign they're prepared to end their own years-long dispute. Secretary of State Tony Blinken also attended today's U.S. vs. Wales match. Qatar is a key U.S. partner and hosts a major U.S. air base. The bottom line: With billions of people expected to tune in during the World Cup, Qatar will be at the center of global attention for the next few weeks for events on and off the field.     2. Scramble to form Malaysia's next government Anwar Ibrahim at a news conference on Monday. Photo: Samsul Said/Bloomberg via Getty Images   Two would-be prime ministers are competing to round up enough support to form a government after Sunday's election delivered Malaysia's first-ever hung parliament. Why it matters: With just a few hours left before a deadline set by Malaysia's king, it remains unclear whether the horse-trading now underway can produce a stable government, or who will lead it. The big picture: This was an unmitigated disaster for the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which led every government from 1957 until 2018 before being brought down by the massive 1MDB corruption scandal. UMNO helped force an early election in hopes of a comeback, but instead won just 30 of 222 seats. Many in its base turned to a rival conservative bloc dominated by an Islamist Party called PAS, led by a defector from UMNO, former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. PAS became Malaysia's biggest single party by winning 44 of the bloc's 73 seats — a sign of the growing appeal of political Islam, particularly among younger voters. State of play: Muhyiddin is now in a race with long-time opposition stalwart Anwar Ibrahim to win over MPs outside their blocs. Anwar heads a multi-ethnic alliance favored by many ethnic Chinese and Indian voters, while the nationalist UNMO and Islamist PAS appeal mainly to the mostly Muslim Malay majority. Flashback: Anwar won the 2018 election from a prison cell in an alliance with another former prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad. He'd been jailed on sodomy charges that were widely seen as politically motivated. After being freed, Anwar was supposed to follow Mahathir as prime minister, but their coalition collapsed. Worth noting: The 97-year-old Mahathir lost his seat on Sunday. What to watch: Anwar's coalition finished first with 83 seats but fell far short of a majority. That means if he's going to finally become prime minister, he'll likely have to win over some of his former foes in UMNO.     3. Indonesia earthquake kills more than 160 Wounded survivors are treated in Cianjur, Indonesia. Photo: Timur Matahari/AFP via Getty Images   At least 162 people were killed after a 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck the Indonesian island of Java on Monday, AP reported, citing West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil. Driving the news: Kamil said that more than 13,000 people have been displaced, and "the majority of those who died were children." "There are still many residents trapped at the incident sites; we assume that the injured and dead victims will continue to increase over time," Kamil said. The big picture: Indonesia frequently experiences earthquakes and other extreme weather events due to its location along the so-called "ring of fire" in the Pacific. More global headlines: It will be a tense week in Pakistan. The country's next army chief will be named in the coming days. Meanwhile, opposition leader Imran Khan is planning a massive demonstration in the capital after surviving an apparent assassination attempt this month. Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was moved to an isolation cell to "shut me up," according to tweets from his account. The Biden administration is preparing for the possibility of mass migration from Haiti by expanding a migrant center on Guantanamo Bay and looking into the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos for temporary new holding sites, Axios' Stef Kight reports. The Pentagon's top policy official warned America's partners in the Middle East on Friday that cooperating too closely with Beijing on security issues could damage their cooperation with Washington, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.     A message from Babbel Say "ja" to learning a new language     Babbel has what you need to learn how to hold real-world conversations in Dutch, Spanish and more. Learn through: Expert-curated lessons. Speech technology that improves your accent. Context and cultural tips. Live online classes or videos. Speak a new language in as little as three weeks.     Bonus: Where in the World (Cup)? Data: FIFA; Map: Thomas Oide/Axios I'm still in World Cup mode, so here's a quick quiz about some of the participants. A. Seven have won the tournament before. B. One former winner failed to qualify. C. Four have populations under 5 million (Hint: two in Europe, one in South America, one in the Middle East). D. Two have populations over 200 million. (Worth noting: Seven of the world's nine most populous countries failed to qualify). E. One doesn't have an army. Can you name them all? Scroll to the bottom for answers.     4. Energy and climate: Two big deals Data: Global Carbon Project; Chart: Alice Feng/Axios The COP27 summit produced a historic but vague deal to create a fund for wealthy industrial countries to compensate poor nations for the ravages of climate change, my colleagues write in Axios Generate. That's the result of a decades-long struggle by the most vulnerable nations, including small island states, but it could be years before they see a dollar. Diplomats did not agree to strengthen prior calls for phasing down the use of coal by adding oil and natural gas. Those efforts faced "staunch resistance from countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia," the FT reports. In related news... China's Sinopec signed a 27-year agreement for Qatari liquified natural gas, beginning in 2026. Why it matters: The market for LNG is expected to be tight until 2026, when projects in Qatar and the U.S. come online, per the WSJ. Japan, the world's top LNG importer, says contracts starting before then are virtually sold out. Germany and other European countries are seeking to replace Russian gas with LNG. But they've been reticent to sign longer-term contracts in part because they view LNG as a bridge to renewables. "Europe (Germany!) talks about buying LNG. China actually signs contracts for LNG," tweets Bloomberg's Javier Blas. "What would happen the day when China recovers from Covid-19 and Europe still needs LNG cargoes?" What to watch: EU gas storage is around 95% full, meaning a painful energy shortage will likely be avoided this winter, but the next few winters could actually be more difficult.     5. Zambia's debt restructuring precedent Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Zambia is restructuring its debts and causing a stare-down between China, on the one hand, and the IMF and World Bank on the other, Axios' Felix Salmon writes. Why it matters: One side is going to have to blink. An important precedent will be set either way. For the record: The G20 communiqué has 52 paragraphs, 9,700 words, and one footnote. The footnote, in full: "Noting that one member has divergent views on debt issues in paragraph 33, and emphasized the importance of debt treatment by multilateral creditors like MDBs." To be clear: The "one member" in question is China. The big picture: The multilateral development banks (MDBs), have so-called preferred creditor status, which means they always get paid back in full, partly because they lend at well below market rates. China, however, wants them to participate in "debt treatment" — which means it wants them to write down at least some of their debts. By the numbers: Zambia owes China $5.9 billion, per former Treasury official Brad Setser's excellent summary of the situation. The MDBs are owed $2.7 billion. Total external debt is $20 billion. "I don't think there is any 'give' in the MDBs," Setser emails Axios. "Their preferred status is not up for negotiation." The bottom line: Zambia is a crucial test case for many other countries that are going to have to restructure their debt in coming years. (Looking at you, Ghana.)     6. Kim Jong-un reveals his daughter, possible heir A picture of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter Kim Chu-ae during a news program. Photo: KIM Jae-Hwan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images   North Korean leader Kim Jong-un unveiled his daughter to the world this week as he watched the launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially reach the U.S. Why it matters: This is the first confirmed public sighting of the North Korean leader's daughter and shines a light on the potential next Kim family member to lead the country, Axios' Herb Scribner writes. North Korean state media said Kim watched the launch with officials, his wife Ri Sol Ju, and their "beloved daughter." Former basketball star Dennis Rodman previously said he had met Kim's daughter during a visit to Pyongyang. "South Korean intelligence agencies believe the North Korean leader has fathered two other children, born in 2010 and 2017, although their names and gender are not known," per the Washington Post.     7. Stories we're watching Children play in the old port in Mogadishu, Somalia. Photo: Scott Peterson/Getty Images   "Powerful explosions" near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant WaPo slams Biden's move to shield MBS in Khashoggi suit China reports first COVID-19 death in 6 months Iran enrichment warning Explosive residue found at site of Nord Stream explosions U.S. says Russia hasn't negotiated "in good faith" over Griner U.S. officials hope Netanyahu will bring back familiar face Quoted: "Queremos cerveza! Queremos cerveza! Queremos cerveza!" — Ecuador fans chanted "we want beer" during their opening match against Qatar. The kingdom banned alcohol sales at stadiums just two days before the tournament began.     A message from Babbel Language lessons you can use in the real world     Language learning platform Babbel offers 10-minute lessons that are proven to help users learn a new language in just three weeks. How it's done: Instead of random phrases, you'll learn to hold real-world conversations with expert-curated lessons and more. Get up to 55% off your subscription.   Answers: A. Argentina; Brazil; England; France; Germany; Uruguay; Spain. B. Italy. C. Croatia; Qatar; Uruguay; Wales. D. Brazil and U.S. E. Costa Rica Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: