Wednesday, November 30, 2022

The Hill's big choice: Omnibus or struggle bus?

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza , Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

Presented by

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 29: U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Congressional Leaders to discuss legislative priorities through the end of 2022, at the White House on November 29, 2022 in Washington, DC. Biden met with Senate and House leaders including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY), Speaker   of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to discuss legislative priorities for the rest of the year. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

President Joe Biden meets with congressional leaders to discuss legislative priorities through the end of 2022, at the White House on Nov. 29, 2022. | Getty Images

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DRIVING THE DAY

NEW THIS MORNING — Burgess Everett steps back on yesterday's historic 61-36 Senate vote to protect same-sex marriage rights — and the slow GOP evolution that made it possible. He leads with Sen. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.), whose "decision to get involved was emblematic of a Republican Party that's divided over how much to edge away from hardline positions on social issues as it tries to rebuild credibility with swing voters after a disappointing midterm performance. … 'This was about settling something that is on the minds of millions of people and their families,' Tillis said. 'And I thought it was worth doing.'"

Still: The issue "still plainly splits the GOP. …. Though Republicans privately estimate perhaps 30 or so of their senators want the bill to pass, conservative backlash limited the whip count. [Arizona Democratic Sen. KYRSTEN] SINEMA has cut deals on infrastructure and gun safety but said that 'the attempts to derail this piece of legislation were probably more focused and robust than any other bills I've worked on in the last two years.'"

Related reads: "'Her leadership was critical': Tammy Baldwin guides same-sex marriage bill through extremely divided Senate," by CNN's Alex Rogers … "GOP Sen. Cynthia Lummis Gives Moving Speech In Support Of Same-Sex Marriage Protections," by HuffPost's Igor Bobic … "Here's which senators voted for or against the Respect for Marriage Act," WaPo

OMNIBUS UPDATE — The four congressional leaders spent over an hour with President JOE BIDEN in the Roosevelt Room on Tuesday, and when they emerged from the White House and spoke to reporters, something unusual happened: They all agreed.

What they agreed on was something that appeared awfully iffy earlier this week: that the lame-duck Congress should negotiate and pass an omnibus appropriations bill in the coming weeks.

On the face of it, that seems a little unusual , especially since the alternatives could get everyone out of town a lot quicker. Government funding runs out on Dec. 16, and Congress could simply pass a continuing resolution to kick things into early next year when the new Congress, presumably with a KEVIN McCARTHY-led House, is sworn in. Or it could keep current agency funding levels mostly in place until the new fiscal year starts in October 2023 (and, let's be honest, probably longer).

Several things are driving the five leaders to press forward with fraught negotiations over $1.5 trillion-plus in federal spending on a tight deadline. But we can't help but note the one common factor that came up in conversations with all sides: Nobody trusts McCarthy to pass anything (not even McCarthy). Let's take a spin through the thinking of all five camps …

— The White House: Biden has three top priorities for the bill: disaster relief, Ukraine and Covid. There's bipartisan support for the first two items. Natural disasters have touched both red states and blue in recent months, and Senate GOP Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who clearly wants to sideline some of the isolationist voices in his party, is particularly keen on Ukraine funding. (Covid relief remains a much heavier lift.)

As we reported Monday, the administration is also warning of national security implications. The Pentagon has never operated for a full fiscal year on the prior year's funding levels, and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN warned Hill leaders this week that doing so would (1) amount to a budget cut and (2) have the perverse effect of allocating money based on outdated priorities. And, yes, there are also lots of nondefense priorities outlined in Biden's budgets that could find a home in the omnibus.

But if the White House can't get a deal , look for Biden to seek a yearlong CR. This is both a negotiating tactic — many Republicans share the DOD concerns — and a bow to reality, because the only thing worse than funding the government at outdated levels and with last year's priorities is setting up a late-winter showdown with House Republicans.

— McConnell: The Senate Republican leader, who will have to round up ten GOP votes for any bill, told reporters "there's widespread agreement that we'd be better off with an omnibus than a CR" after the White House meeting.

That reflects (1) his view that the Pentagon can't suffer through a yearlong CR, (2) his understanding that many in his party have priorities they want funded — veterans, law enforcement, health research, agriculture, etc. — and (3) pressure from business lobbies that want a vehicle that can carry other goodies, including extensions of expiring tax policies.

McConnell also knows that if he reaches a deal this month, then outgoing Speaker NANCY PELOSI can be trusted to push it through the House. Can the same be said about McCarthy in January? As one GOP senator told POLITICO this week , "Nobody wants to hand Kevin McCarthy a grenade with the pin already pulled."

But McConnell has a price for his cooperation: He is insisting that defense spending receive a bigger boost than nondefense spending. Generally, in the past decade, omnibus deals have followed a bipartisan rule of parity: Both categories get bumped up at the same rate. But Republicans argue that the Democrats have already gone on a nondefense spending spree via their three big domestic policy bills and that the year-end deal has to be weighted toward the Pentagon.

Schumer: Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and his appropriators are determined to negotiate McConnell back to something closer to parity. But he's also facing pressure from Democratic senators who want to see their own priorities signed into law. For instance, Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) is pushing hard to re-expand the Child Tax Credit, at least temporarily.

Meanwhile, outside groups and lobbyists are flooding offices with requests that can most easily be dealt with in an omnibus. Here's the latest example: a letter from the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition asking Congress "to strengthen resources for America's civilian programs overseas."

Schumer was cautiously optimistic yesterday but noted that an omnibus was far from "a done deal."

— Pelosi: This will be Pelosi's last major piece of legislation, and she would be ending her speakership not with a bang, but a whimper if all she can muster in December is a CR. But for that same reason, she'll be highly incentivized to push back against McConnell and maintain defense-nondefense parity in the final deal.

Depending on how hard a bargain McConnell drives , rounding up Democratic votes in the House could prove to be one final herculean test of Pelosi's ability to whip her caucus. She'll be doing so from an unfamiliar posture: As a lame duck, will she retain her powers to cajole and browbeat progressives and moderates to unite in support of an inevitably flawed deal?

— McCarthy: Nobody expects McCarthy to provide a single Republican vote for a massive omnibus bill. He's already busy cutting deals over GOP conference rules as he tries to secure 218 votes to become speaker — more on that below — and if he has any hope of winning over the right flank, he cannot risk countenancing any compromise with Democrats.

But, like everyone else, the last thing he wants is to be dealing with this immediately in January. So that leaves McCarthy in the classic "hope yes, vote no" predicament, and this time he can probably count on Democrats to put up the necessary votes to pass the bill. This time.

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. What are you hearing that could get attached to an omni? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .

 

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BETTER NEWS FOR McCARTHY — Influential conservative talk show host MARK LEVIN gave the embattled House GOP leader a boost in his quest to become speaker on his syndicated radio show Tuesday, roundly mocking members of the Freedom Caucus who have gone on record opposing McCarthy's campaign for the gavel.

Dubbing them the "five boneheads" and "five saboteurs," he accused the group of "playing right into the hands of the Democrats" and standing in the way of a peaceful transition to GOP control that would allow for quick subpoenas of the Biden family and the Justice Department, as well as other Republican priorities. "How can they be so stupid?"

Levin got even more personal in lambasting the lawmakers, calling Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) "utterly useless," Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.) a "phony conservative" and Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.) a "moron."

Levin's rant — which is worth a listen — constitutes some welcome backup for McCarthy on the activist right as the Jan. 3 speaker vote draws closer. Expect McCarthy to recruit other powerful voices to help him lock down the votes, just as NANCY PELOSI did in early 2018 when she put down her own threatened mutiny.

 

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BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY:

9 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

11:30 a.m.: Biden will deliver remarks at the White House Tribal Nations Summit.

5:30 p.m.: Biden, first lady JILL BIDEN, VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will attend the National Christmas Tree Lighting, where Interior Secretary DEB HAALAND will deliver remarks.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2 p.m.

HARRIS' WEDNESDAY:

10:10 a.m.: The VP will meet with French President EMMANUEL MACRON to discuss space cooperation between the U.S. and France.

3 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks at the White House Tribal Nations Summit.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Christian Pulisic of the United States, center, scores the opening goal during the World Cup group B soccer match between Iran and the United States at the Al Thumama Stadium in Doha, Qatar, Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2022.

Christian Pulisic scores a goal for the U.S. that would seal a 1-0 victory over Iran and send the team to the knockout stage of the World Cup in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday, Nov. 29. | Hassan Ammar/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

RUNOFF REPORT — "Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker described himself as living in Texas during 2022 campaign speech," by CNN's Andrew Kaczynski and Olivia Alafriz: "Georgia Democrats have called for an investigation by state officials into [HERSCHEL] WALKER's residency after CNN's KFile reported last week that Walker was getting a tax break in Texas intended for a primary residence, possibly running afoul of Texas tax law and some rules for establishing Georgia residency for voting and running for office.

"'I live in Texas,' Walker said in January of this year, when speaking to University of Georgia College Republicans. … Earlier in the speech, Walker said he decided to run for Georgia's Senate seat while at his Texas home after seeing the country divided."

"'Is He for Real?': Warnock Hits Walker in New Ad, but Lets Others Do the Talking," by NYT's Reid Epstein

DRAWING THE LINES — "S. Carolina's US House maps under scrutiny because of race," by AP's James Pollard

JUSTICE SERVED — "Jacob Wohl, Jack Burkman must spend 500 hours registering voters as penance for phony robocalls targeting Black voters in Cleveland," by Cleveland.com's Cory Shaffer

THE WHITE HOUSE

BEHIND THE SCENES — "Inside Biden's decision to halt a rail strike," by Ben White: "Biden's decision to request Congress' intervention late Monday came after phone calls over recent days with Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH, Agriculture Secretary TOM VILSACK and Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG , the trio of aides running point for the White House on the issue, three people familiar with the planning told POLITICO. In the end, they said, Biden figured that the blowback from unions and highly progressive members of Congress would be limited."

SETTING THE STATE TABLE — "As Macron Pays State Visit to U.S., Ukraine Tests an Old Alliance," by NYT's Roger Cohen in Paris: "The 21-gun salute and elaborate reception that will be accorded to [French President EMMANUEL MACRON] reflect the resilience of the very old but sometimes fractious relationship between France and the United States. They also indicate the renewed centrality of Europe to American interests since the invasion of Ukraine by President VLADIMIR V. PUTIN of Russia nine months ago."

ON THE ROAD AGAIN — "Biden in Michigan: U.S. won't be 'held hostage' in chips supply," by the Detroit News' Breana Noble and Riley Beggin

CONGRESS

QUITE THE HONOR — "Lofgren introduces resolution to name Cannon Caucus Room after Pelosi," by The Hill's Zach Schonfeld

WHAT THE SENATE GOP WANTS — "GOP's Thune Sees Debt-Ceiling Hike as Vehicle for Budget Cuts," by Bloomberg's Laura Litvan: "Senate Republicans want to leverage the next US debt limit increase to force cuts in projected federal spending and changes to Social Security and other entitlement programs, the party's No. 2 leader said."

TOP-ED — Former CHUCK GRASSLEY aide Kris Kolesnik writes for The Hill: "Why the GOP oversight agenda in the new Congress likely will backfire"

 

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TRUMP CARDS

FAILURE TO LAUNCH — "Donald Trump's turbulence-filled launch," by Meridith McGraw and Zach Montellaro: "Trump aides stress that the former president continues to dominate in 2024 primary polling and he is no stranger to controversial news cycles. They note millions tuned in for his announcement and he has continued to fundraise and now sells 2024 merchandise on his website.

"And they're working to right the ship , with plans to formalize his surrogate operation, shift the focus to claims that the Biden administration has weaponized the justice system against Trump, and to accusations that Biden himself is not tough enough on China. They also plan to put Trump back in the spotlight with appearances and interviews — two things he has mostly avoided in the days since his campaign launch."

HOW IT HAPPENED — "The inside story of Trump's explosive dinner with Ye and Nick Fuentes," by NBC's Marc Caputo: "MILO YIANNOPOULOS, the anti-Trump, far-right provocateur who is now acting as a political adviser to YE … told NBC News that he was 'the architect' of the plan to have [NICK] FUENTES travel with Ye in the hopes of slipping him into the dinner with Trump. The intent, according to Yiannopoulos, was for Fuentes to give Trump an unvarnished view of how a portion of his base views his candidacy."

Related read: "Trump's dinner disaster sparks new rules for his campaign," by AP's Jill Colvin

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

DOJ SECURES MAJOR CONVICTION — Oath Keepers founder STEWART RHODES was convicted of orchestrating a seditious conspiracy against the government in leading his followers in a plot to violently subvert the transfer of power between Trump and Biden. The conviction, which came after a three-day deliberation by the jury, is the "most significant to emerge from the Justice Department's sprawling investigation" of the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, our colleague Kyle Cheney writes . Rhodes now faces a maximum sentence of 20 years on the seditious conspiracy conviction.

WHO'S TALKING — "Top Trump adviser Stephen Miller testifies to January 6 federal grand jury," by CNN's Katelyn Polantz and Hannah Rabinowitz … "Jan. 6 panel interviews ex-Secret Service agent Tony Ornato," by AP's Farnoush Amiri

THE GEORGIA INVESTIGATION — "South Carolina Supreme Court rejects Mark Meadows subpoena challenge, must testify in Georgia election probe," by USA Today's Kevin Johnson

 

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

HEADS UP — "U.S. Is Weighing a Terrorism Label for Russia's Wagner Group Mercenaries," by Bloomberg's Daniel Flatley and Stephanie Baker

ON THE GROUND — "With Intimidation and Surveillance, China Tries to Snuff Out Protests," by NYT's Chris Buckley: "Communist Party officials are using decades-old tactics, along with some new ones, to quash the most widespread protests in decades. But XI JINPING is silent."

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — "Pentagon warns of China's plans for dominance in Taiwan and beyond," by WaPo's Karoun Demirjian: "China conducted more ballistic missile tests last year than the rest of the world combined and is on course to possess 1,500 nuclear weapons within the next decade, the Pentagon warns in a new assessment of Beijing's rapidly expanding military posture."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

TROUBLING TREND — "Study: U.S. gun death rates hit highest levels in decades," by AP's Mike Stobbe

DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — "DeSantis-backed school boards begin ousting Florida educators," by Andrew Atterbury in Tallahassee, Fla. … "Suspended Florida prosecutor takes fight to DeSantis in opening day of federal trial," by Gary Fineout

POLICY CORNER

SHOT … "Sam Bankman-Fried says he's down to $100,000," by Axios' Lucinda Shen: "'Am I allowed to say a negative number?' he said, when asked about his personal finances. 'I mean, I have no idea. I don't know. I had $100,000 in my bank account last I checked,' he said. 'It's complicated. Basically everything I had was just tied up in the company,' he added."

CHASER … "Crisis managers warn Bankman-Fried: Shut up," by Sam Sutton: "Bankman-Fried's unrelenting public campaign has crisis management specialists, public relations experts and even some lawmakers warning that refusing to stay quiet is unlikely to salvage his reputation — and that he's putting himself in growing legal danger."

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Bob Corker does not miss his old gig.

John Hickenlooper was asked to show his staff ID by Capitol Police.

Kyrsten Sinema has a nickname for John Thune. Sinema also shared an embrace with Cynthia Lummis.

Joe Biden was really excited about the USA's win over Iran.

Terry McAuliffe was in the stands in Qatar for the U.S. victory.

SPOTTED: Merrick Garland stopping in at Oyamel to congratulate the DOJ's Oath Keepers trial team, which had decamped to the Jose Andres Mexican restaurant in Penn Quarter to celebrate after jury verdicts in the high stakes case were handed down on Tuesday.

GOVERNMENT ETHICS REFRESHER — A reminder to our readers in civil service that even book recommendations can be ethically fraught in the social-media age: Jen Easterly, the director of DHS' Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, deleted a tweet on Tuesday afternoon raving about Wired journalist Andy Greenberg 's "Tracers in the Dark: The Global Hunt for the Crime Lords of Cryptocurrency" ( $32.50 ) after our Daniel Lippman asked CISA why she had tweeted it given that it was an apparent violation of government ethics rules. According to Justice Department guidance , federal officials are not allowed to endorse specific products or services; Easterly's Sunday tweet called the book a "highly compelling, entertaining, & illuminating read." A CISA spokesperson declined to comment. See the deleted tweet

OUT AND ABOUT — The Barbara Bush Foundation hosted a Celebration of Reading event at the Planet Word Museum last night featuring a conversation with author and former Hillary Clinton staffer, Huma Abedin, about her memoir, "Both/And: A Life in Many Worlds." Guests were allowed to tour the museum's interactive exhibits and enjoyed cocktails and a spread of Mediterranean appetizers. SPOTTED: British Robinson, Doro Bush Koch, Gina Adams, Ashley Davis, Anita McBride, Mike Rodgers, Kristi Rogers, Rickie Niceta, Ann Friedman, Sylvia Burwell, Susanna Quinn, Grace Bender, Opal Vadhan, Priya Bery and Stewart McLaurin. Pic  … Another pic .

SPOTTED at a party at Susan Glasser and Peter Baker's house celebrating Bill Cohan's new book about GE called "Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of an American Icon" ( $31.71 ) and co-hosted by Jane Mayer, Bill Hamilton, Angela Stent and Dan Yergin on Tuesday night: Deb Futter, Josh Bolten, Mary Louise Kelly, UAE Ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba, Stu Jones, Sally Quinn, Juleanna Glover, Mark Leibovich, David Wessel, Al Hunt, David Marchick, Virginia Boney, Sari Horwitz, David Sanger, Indira Lakshmanan, Bob Barnett, Maureen Orth, Tara Palmeri, Tina Nguyen, Jane Harman, Brad Graham, Lissa Muscatine, Heidi Crebo-Rediker and Doug Rediker, Steve Weisman, Carlos Lozada and Bay Fang.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Director Evgeny Afineevsky and Ukrainian journalist Natalia Nagorna will give State Department employees an exclusive screening and Q&A for their new documentary, "Freedom on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom," about Ukrainian efforts to defend their country against Russia.

Marissa Mitrovich is now VP of public policy at the Fiber Broadband Association. She previously was VP of federal legislative affairs for Frontier Communications.

Campbell Millum is now global head of comms at Bird. She most recently was head of U.S. policy comms at DoorDash and is a Lyft alum.

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Courtney Rowe is now SVP of corporate comms at NBCUniversal. She most recently oversaw strategic comms and public engagement for the White House Covid-19 response team and is an Obama White House and National Geographic alum. More from Deadline

TRANSITIONS — Raphael Chavez-Fernandez is joining Rep. Ruben Gallego's (D-Ariz.) office as chief of staff. He most recently was deputy assistant VA secretary for intergovernmental affairs, and is a Bob Menendez alum. … Cally Perkins is joining Rep.-elect Morgan Luttrell's (R-Texas) office as comms director. She previously was national press secretary for the Congressional Leadership Fund and American Action Network and is an RSLC, Tom Rice and Trent Kelly alum.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Josh Rogin, a WaPo columnist, and Ali Rogin, a PBS News Weekend correspondent, welcomed Anne Shreve Rogin on Sunday. She came in at 9 lbs, 2 oz. He posts on Instagram: "The name 'Anne' is a tribute to my paternal grandmother Anne Rogin and is derived from Hebrew, meaning 'favor' or 'grace.' 'Shreve' is a Welsh name meaning 'sheriff' that has been passed on as a middle name from Ali's mother's side." Instapics

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) … South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemLarry SummersLauren Pratapas … CNN's Andrew Kaczynski Alex Clearfield of Bloomberg Industry Group … Sharon Soderstrom of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's office … Sergio GorScott Erickson of Wolf Global Advisors … Michael Beschloss … POLITICO's Andy Glass, Michele Carroll and Ruth Reader Steve HaroWilliam Daroff of the Conference of Presidents … Amijah Townsend-HolmesTravis Waldron of HuffPost … Jodi Rudoren of The Forward … James Sonne … Reuters' Jonathan LandayAmy PritchardCrystal Carson … Edelman's Ben Mahler … former Education Secretary Margaret Spellings Wesley Donehue José Bayona of NYC Mayor Eric Adams' office … David Halperin Marshall "Taco" Cohen (29)

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