| | | | |  | | By Charlie Mahtesian | | 
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) takes his seat beside Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in 2013. Both longtime Democratic senators could face tough re-election battles in red states in 2024. | T.J. Kirkpatrick/Getty Images | DEFENSIVE CROUCH — After Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock's fate is decided next week in Georgia's Senate runoff against Republican Herschel Walker, don't expect a breather. Democrats will almost immediately be back on defense, as the lopsided nature of the 2024 Senate playing field comes into full view. Democrats are defending roughly two-thirds of the seats up for election in 2024 — 23 of 34 seats — including in a handful of the most competitive states in the nation. Republicans, on the other hand, will be defending seats in some of the reddest and least competitive states — places where Democrats don't have a prayer of winning. Worse, at a time when split-ticket voting is on the decline, three Democratic incumbents are seeking reelection in states that former President Donald Trump carried — Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. In contrast, no Republican incumbents are running in states that President Joe Biden won. Even the Republicans who had the closest races in 2018 — Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — appear to have the wind at their backs in the upcoming election cycle. Both Texas and Florida broke to the right this month, with a red wave cresting across Florida and Texas registering yet another GOP sweep of statewide offices, led by GOP Gov. Greg Abbott's robust reelection victory. Add it all up and it's a grim, unforgiving map for Democrats, one that places the party in a defensive crouch and offers almost no obvious pickup opportunities. That's one of the biggest differences from 2022, when Democrats didn't have to protect any Senate seats in states Trump won in 2020, and had multiple pickup opportunities thanks to retiring Republicans in swing states like Pennsylvania. But just as in the most recent midterm elections, Trump could again unravel the best laid Republican plans. On the plus side, a Trump-led ticket would imperil three Democratic incumbents in particular — Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Jon Tester of Montana and Joe Manchin of West Virginia — since he carried their states. Yet the former president's presence on the GOP presidential ticket in 2024 could just as easily boost Democratic prospects elsewhere by juicing Democratic turnout and performance in the big, populous suburbs that have broken hard against him and his brand of politics in three consecutive elections. Trump's desire to play kingmaker could also shape the next Senate map in other important ways, whether or not he emerges as the GOP nominee. Democratic incumbents are up for reelection in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all of which rejected flawed, Trump-backed statewide candidates in November. It's not a stretch to imagine Trump playing a similar role in 2024, boosting similarly unelectable Senate candidates to the GOP nomination in key races, only to see swing state voters reject them once again in the general election. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight's author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on Twitter at @PoliticoCharlie .
| | | | GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our "Future Pulse" newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE . | | | | | | | | TOUGH TALK — A newly elected Democrat thinks the party is losing Hispanic voters because they aren't talking to them in the right way, writes Minho Kim . Rep.-Elect Delia Ramirez, a Hispanic American herself who won a safe Democratic seat in Illinois, wants to prove Democrats don't have to moderate to win back Hispanic voters. In her mind, the way to win is telling working-class Latinos the party is going to fight for them against the "rigged" economic system that favors, as she puts it, "a bunch of riquillos," or rich people. What brings out working Latino families to vote, Ramirez argues, is a straightforward economically progressive message — not threats to democracy or rhetoric on social justice issues but pocketbook issues such as health care and housing. Ramirez's playbook is hammering on Latinos' hunger for better political representation and connecting her progressive economic platform to her own personal story as "the daughter of two Guatemalan immigrants working factory jobs." Ramirez's parents are how she bonds emotionally and politically with voters. Her mother, she says, "nearly died in the Rio Grande," pregnant and crossing the river carrying Ramirez, and her 71-year-old father, she says, "can't retire with dignity" because "he needs to get another job to afford his Medicare supplements." Read the full profile of the new representative here .
| | | | 
Shipping containers and rail cars sit in a Union Pacific Intermodal Terminal rail yard in Los Angeles, California. | Mario Tama/Getty Images | — Rail contract faces uncertain Senate future as freight shutdown looms: A House-passed bill to head off a nationwide freight rail strike faces an uncertain future in the Senate — just days before the threatened work stoppage is likely to begin affecting the economy. The bill, which still needs a vote in the Senate, would impose a labor contract opposed by tens of thousands of unionized workers. It is meant to prevent a freight shutdown that the railroads say would cost the U.S. an estimated $2 billion per day, but the contract doesn't address sick leave policies, a disappointment for unions that form one of Democrats' core constituencies. — Hakeem Jeffries elected House Democratic Leader: The strategy behind Rep. Hakeem Jeffries' yearslong ascent to House Democratic leader , as his top allies see it, focused on making the outcome feel inevitable. And in the end, it did. The New York Democrat culminated a remarkably frictionless climb of the party ladder today, securing every vote and avoiding a single challenger. He became the highest-ranking Black congressional leader in U.S. history just 12 days after formally declaring his run. — Braun to run for Indiana governor, opening Senate seat in 2024: Indiana GOP Sen. Mike Braun is running for governor , according to paperwork filed with the secretary of state's office Tuesday. POLITICO reported in September that Braun, elected to the Senate in 2018 after defeating former Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), was leaning toward a gubernatorial run. He won a fierce GOP primary six years ago, defeating former Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer.
| | | | POLITICO APP USERS: UPGRADE YOUR APP BY DECEMBER 19! We recently upgraded the POLITICO app with a fresh look and improved features for easier access to POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Starting December 19, users will no longer have access to the previous version of the app. Update your app today to stay on top of essential political news, insights, and analysis from the best journalists in the business. UPDATE iOS APP – UPDATE ANDROID APP . | | | | | | | | BAD OMENS — Even in death his timing was impeccable, writes Jamil Anderlini . Jiang Zemin, the former Chinese president who was vaulted to the top of the Communist Party thanks to the 1989 Tiananmen massacre, died today at the age of 96 — just as a wave of political protest sweeps the country once more . For current leader Xi Jinping, the historical echoes could not be more ominous. In April 1989, mass mourning over the sudden death of former party supremo Hu Yaobang triggered nationwide protests that were eventually crushed by the People's Liberation Army in June. Now, as then, it is impossible for the party to ban mourning or memorial activities for a former paramount leader. But acts of remembrance in the coming days and weeks will provide untold opportunities to express dissent and dissatisfaction over the current state of Chinese politics. Known for his relaxed, sometimes comical, performances on the world stage, Jiang was not particularly popular while in office. But as China has become more repressive and authoritarian over the last decade under Xi, Jiang's image has been rehabilitated. Many now look fondly at the period from 1989 until 2004, when Jiang relinquished his role as head of the Chinese military, as a time of openness and reform – when China was growing rapidly and looking to the West for inspiration and friendship. That contrasts starkly with Xi's ethno-nationalist imperial vision of a "great rejuvenation," in which "all under heaven" bends to the will of Xi and his party and China asserts itself as an expansionist military power in the world.
| | | | | $45 billion The amount of money that House and Senate negotiators agreed to add to Biden's defense budget , setting the budget topline of the fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act at $847 billion for national defense. The White House sought $802 billion for national defense programs in its fiscal 2023 budget, making the extra funding a rebuke of Biden's ask. | | | | | DRAGNET — In conducting its Jan. 6 investigations, the FBI used a controversial "geofence dragnet" to scoop up data from its largest haul of phones ever. Even phones on airplane mode, or phones where people attempted to delete traces afterwards, were caught. The technology might help catch criminals, but how much can it also infringe on rights to privacy? Mark Harris takes us into the debate over these digital dragnets for WIRED.
| | | | 
A place setting is seen during a media preview for the upcoming State Dinner for French President Macron and his wife Brigitte Macron, scheduled for Thursday at the White House. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here . | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment