Wednesday, November 30, 2022

How 2 Russian refugees got to Alaska

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Nov 30, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Matt Berg , Alexander Ward and Lawrence Ukenye

 Toksook Bay, Alaska.

Sergey and Maksim embarked on a perilous five-day journey through the Bering Strait on a fishing boat, landing in Alaska. | Matt Hage/AP Images for U.S. Census Bureau

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With help from Paul McLeary

When Russian authorities knocked on their doors in late September, SERGEY and MAKSIM knew not to answer. If they did, they'd be drafted to fight in Ukraine as part of President VLADIMIR PUTIN's nationwide mobilization .

Instead, the pair embarked on a perilous five-day journey through the Bering Strait on a fishing boat, landing in Gambell, Alaska, a small village on the tip of an island where they were welcomed with open arms.

Now the first and only known Russians to have fled their country to Alaska are in a detention center in Tacoma, Washington, where they have to live in brutal conditions until their asylum cases are heard.

"The situation that most detainees are put under is similar to prison," said NICOLAS McKEE, a staff attorney at Northwest Immigrant Rights Project, who is working to get them out on parole. "They didn't want to leave Russia; these men were forced to do so … It's life or death."

Both men are referred to by their first names to protect their identities from the Russian government, at their lawyer's request.

The story of their journey underscores the lengths that Russian migrants will undertake to escape the deadly conditions draftees are subjected to — just as the Biden administration weighs expanding its policy for Russians' access to the U.S. refugee program as tens of thousands flee the war to the United States.

Even before Moscow's crackdown on dissenters, Russians have fled to the U.S. in hopes of finding refuge, with many coming in through the southern border. In October alone — when Sergey and Maksim arrived — more than 3,800 Russians came.

The mass exodus left U.S. officials at embassies worldwide and along the southern border scrambling, as POLITICO reported in May .

Some lawmakers and activists urged President JOE BIDEN to roll out a welcome mat for fleeing Russians, arguing that the gesture would send a powerful signal of U.S. generosity to ordinary Russians and undermine Putin's oppressive regime by accelerating brain drain from his country.

When asked if there's any update to the administration's migration policy, a State Department spokesperson said that officials are aware of the influx of Russians fleeing the country, but deferred asylum questions to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Read Matt's full story here.

 

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The Inbox

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– BLINKEN TO ADDRESS J STREET: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will address J Street's national conference in Washington, D.C. this Sunday, a State Department official told NatSec Daily.

Blinken's speech comes at a tense moment in the U.S.-Israel relationship, especially as BENJAMIN NETANYAHU prepares to return as prime minister. The venue of the speech, at a big event hosted by a left-leaning pro-Israel group, is surely meant to send a message to Jerusalem.

J Street's president and founder JEREMY BEN-AMI confirmed to NatSec Daily that Blinken will speak at the conference.

"At a critical time for Israelis and Palestinians and for the future of liberal democracy in the region and around the world, our movement is looking forward to hearing about these challenges from our nation's top diplomat," Ben-Ami said.

The conference will take place from Dec. 3-5 at the Omni Shoreham Hotel.

E.U. TARGETS RUSSIA: The European Union is eyeing setting up a U.N.-backed court to investigate possible war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine and using Russian assets frozen under sanctions to rebuild parts of the country it invaded, the Associated Press' SAMUEL PETREQUIN reports .

Investigations into war crimes are already underway around Europe, including at the Hague-based International Criminal Court. But since Russia doesn't accept the ICC's jurisdiction, European Commission officials said it could either enact an independent international court based on a multilateral treaty or a court integrated in a national justice system with international judges to investigate.

In a video message Wednesday, European Commission president URSULA von der LEYEN also estimated damage to Ukraine since the invasion at 600 billion euros, and stressed her intention for the aggressor to pay for reconstruction.

"Russia and its oligarchs have to compensate Ukraine for the damage and cover the costs for rebuilding the country," von der Leyen said. "We have the means to make Russia pay."

LETTER BOMB: An explosive inside an envelope sent to Ukraine's embassy in Spain inside detonated, injuring one diplomat and leading Kyiv to put each of its missions on high alert, the Financial Times' CHRISTOPHER MILLER reports.

"The Embassy of Ukraine in Spain received an envelope. During an inspection, the envelope exploded in the hands of a diplomat," Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson OLEG NIKOLENKO told the FT. "The diplomat suffered minor injuries and is now hospitalized, receiving the necessary medical attention. There is no threat to his life."

It's unclear who sent the letter. Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA warned that the culprit "will not succeed in intimidating Ukrainian diplomats or stopping their daily work on strengthening Ukraine and countering Russian aggression."

ISIS LEADER DEAD: An ISIS spokesperson said that its leader, ABU AL-HASSAN AL-HASHIMI AL-QURAYSHI, died in battle, the Associated Press reports. He's now the second ISIS leader to be killed this year.

U.S. Central Command confirmed the news. "The death of Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi in mid-October is another blow to ISIS. This operation was conducted by The Free Syrian Army in Dar'a province in Syria. ISIS remains a threat to the region," CENTCOM spokesperson Col. Joe Buccino said in a statement.

TURN IT UP: Today is Spotify Wrapped Day, akin to Christmas for buffs of the streaming service. Here's a breakdown of what tunes fuel the NatSec Daily crew:

Alex's top artists include the Red Hot Chili Peppers, Slipknot, Arctic Monkeys, Kings of Leon and — the odd one out — Doja Cat. "Vegas is a bop," he hastily explained.

Matt listened to Elliott Smith, Everything Everything, Mitski, Arctic Monkeys and Belle & Sebastian the most. Are you okay?

Lawrence nodded along to Gunna, Drake, Playboi Carti, Future and Lil Uzi Vert this year, contributing to a whopping 101,538 minutes on Spotify. Should we be concerned?

IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 .

While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye .

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Flashpoints

ROK SCRAMBLES JETS: South Korea scrambled fighter jets after Chinese and Russian warplanes flew on the edge of South Korea's "air defense zone," an area where countries ask foreign aircraft to identify themselves, Reuters HYONHEE SHIN reports. 

Two Chinese H-6 bombers repeatedly entered and exited South Korea's zone along its southeastern and northeastern coasts. China and Russia claimed the flights were part of joint exercises and neither countries' planes violated South Korean airspace.

Russia does not recognize Seoul's air defense zone, and China claims the zone is not territorial airspace, meaning countries should be able to freely navigate the area.

Japan also scrambled jets after Chinese bombers entered through the Sea of Japan. The incursions come as South Korea and Japan have participated in joint drills alongside the U.S. in response to North Korean missile tests.

Keystrokes

'SPILLOVER' OF RUSSIAN CYBERATTACKS: NATO is tracking potential Russian cyberattacks aimed at Ukraine spilling over into other European nations amid the ongoing conflict, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!).

"We have seen what looks like some sustained attempts to disrupt Ukrainian government military systems, and we have seen what looks like some spillover affecting some surrounding countries," NATO's assistant secretary general for its Joint Intelligence and Security Division, DAVID CATTLER, told reporters during a virtual briefing.

Cattler declined to name the countries where NATO is seeing attacks, but noted that the alliance is working with four NATO-allied nations that border Ukraine to strengthen their cyber defenses: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania.

NATO is also seeing increasing attempted cyberattacks against its own critical networks by "malicious actors," Cattler said.

The Complex

CANADA'S INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY: The Canadian government dropped a new five-year, $2.3 billion strategy to bolster its presence and ties in the Pacific on Wednesday. Like all such plans, it's a wide-ranging set of initiatives with mostly vague promises and goals for the next half-decade. But there are some key details.

About half of that $2.3 billion will fall into two pots of money that aim to check Chinese economic and military expansion in the region. The biggest slice — $750 million over three years — is earmarked for infrastructure support across Asia. The description doesn't go into detail, but it's most likely a move to keep small countries from turning to Beijing for economic support, which often comes with strings attached that bind the country in need to China and its foreign policy goals. The Canadian strategy says the money will go to building "sustainable infrastructure, and also provides alternative options to developing economies exploring infrastructure development."

The next largest funding stream — $493 million over five years — will go toward building up Ottawa's naval presence in the Pacific and increasing the military's participation in regional military exercises. Some of that money will go toward deploying an additional frigate to the Pacific each year, joining the two already based in Western Canada. It's a big ask, as the Canadian frigate fleet has been stretched thin in recent years between back-to-back Atlantic and Pacific deployments and the Navy is short about 1,300 sailors to crew its ships, but that's what the hundreds of millions of dollars are for.

On the Hill

DIVISIONS OVER TURKEY: When Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) was asked if he viewed Turkey as a valuable NATO ally, he responded by saying, "They're a NATO ally," reports Foreign Policy's ROBBIE GRAMER. Alrighty then.

Russia's war with Ukraine has highlighted brewing transatlantic dissatisfaction with Turkey's efforts to prevent the alliance from forming a united front against VLADIMIR PUTIN. Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN has held a series of calls with Putin, some of which have yielded diplomatic progress but stymie efforts to punish Russia's economy.

Frustration has grown among U.S. lawmakers, some of whom say they recognize the benefit of Ankara's contributions to the alliance but want to hold the country accountable for when it acts in a way that counters NATO's objectives, like by slowing Finland and Sweden's admission to the alliance.

"We've got to recognize that [Turkey] can make important contributions, and it's better to have them in NATO than out of NATO," said Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN , (D-N.H.) "But they also have been a bad actor in some ways. And we need to look at how we can … encourage them and hold them accountable when President Erdogan is a bad actor."

 

GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our "Future Pulse" newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .

 
 
Broadsides

ZELENKSYY CALLS OUT MUSK: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY criticized SpaceX founder and Twitter CEO ELON MUSK for his peace proposal to end the country's war with Russia, The New York Times' MATTHEW MPOKE BIGG reports.

"If you want to understand what Russia has done here, come to Ukraine, and you will see this with your own eyes," Zelenskyy said on Wednesday at The New York Times' DealBook Summit. "After that, you will tell us how to end this war, who started and when we can end it."

Zelenskyy criticized Musk last month for proposals that included ceding territory to Russia. Both men also took to Twitter using polls to ask users which scenarios they'd prefer in order to facilitate an end to the conflict.

Transitions

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: DIMITRI SIMES will retire as president of the Center for the National Interest and publisher of The National Interest on Dec. 31, NatSec Daily has learned. CFNTI has yet to announce a successor.

— CHRIS JOHNSON has been promoted to senior adviser at Eurasia Group. He previously served as an Asian affairs expert for the firm.

 

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What to Read

— HEATHER WILLIAMS, POLITICO: Don't Tell Your Non-Work Friends About the Decapitations

— ANUJ CHOPRA, The Guardian: 'The Godfather, Saudi-style': inside the palace coup that brought MBS to power

— MYKHAYLO ZABRODSKYI, JACK WATLING, OLEKSANDR DANYLYUK and NICK REYNOLDS, Royal United Services Institute: Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022

Tomorrow Today

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: "The Capital Cable #60: Nuclear Weapons and Kim Family"

— United States Institute of Peace, 9:30 a.m.: "Beyond the 2001 Paradigm: Counterterrorism and the U.N. Security Council Since 9/11"

— The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 9:45 a.m.: "Rogue Proliferators: Nonproliferation Threats Posed by Iran, Syria, Russia, and North Korea."

— The Arab Center, 10 a.m.: " Iraq at a Crossroads: Challenges and Prospects Facing the New Government."

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: " How to Overcome the Military Recruitment and Retention Crisis"

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: "The Importance of US Alliances in Europe: A Conversation with Senator JONI ERNST"

— The Henry L. Stimson Center, 11 a.m.: The Chairman's Forum: A Conversation with Space Force leader General John "Jay" Raymond (ret.)

— The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2 p.m.: "Moving Pieces: Near-Term Changes to Pacific Air Posture"

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: " Growing Challenges, Rising Ambitions: AUSMIN 2022 and Expanding U.S.-Australia Cooperation"

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who would rather flee the country than keep working with us.

And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who we would follow anywhere.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

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Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more.

 
 

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