💪 Michigan's new power

Plus: 1 cheesy thing | Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Visa   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Nov 30, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. We were overwhelmed by the flood of responses we received to yesterday's caption contest (winner at the bottom). Thank you to all our wonderful and witty readers. Smart Brevity™ count: 988 words ... 3.5 minutes.     1 big thing: Michigan poised to dominate presidential politics Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Michigan is inching closer to joining the early 2024 Democratic presidential primary window, a major shakeup after months of intense lobbying and an official vote in the state Senate backing the effort, Axios' Alexi McCammond and Josh Kraushaar report. Why it matters: The calendar change, if supported at a meeting of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee that starts tomorrow, would have seismic implications for President Biden's party. It would also cement Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer — once a top choice for Biden's running mate — as a Democratic star with the potential to be a formidable presidential candidate herself someday. The potential shift comes after Whitmer was comfortably elected to a second term and Democrats flipped the state legislature for the first time in 38 years, making Michigan one of the party's top midterm success stories. Driving the news: Michigan's state Senate voted Tuesday night to move the state's presidential primary date up to the second week of February, jockeying for an elusive position in the window before Super Tuesday. Michigan and Minnesota are the two top contenders to become the first Midwestern state in the calendar, after Iowa fell out of favor with Democrats over the 2020 caucus debacle and broader diversity concerns. Michigan looked like a tougher sell before Democrats won back full control of state government. Now, Democrats can unilaterally make changes to the calendar without GOP support. The big picture: The size difference between Michigan and Iowa alone would dramatically reshape the incentives for future campaigns. Michigan is the 10th largest state in the nation by population size and awarded more primary delegates in 2020 than the other three early states combined: New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Starting the primary process in Michigan would favor wealthy candidates and fundraising juggernauts — think Michael Bloomberg in 2020 — at the expense of grassroots-oriented underdogs. Between the lines: As they move away from Iowa, some Democrats question Michigan's relatively low Latino and AAPI representation compared to a state like Nevada, which is also lobbying to move up in the calendar. Pro-Michigan Democrats say the state would boost the fortunes of union-backed candidates, bolster Black voters' influence and divert new attention to the state's sizable Arab American constituencies. Women occupy the three top statewide offices in Michigan (governor, attorney general and secretary of state), and up-and-comers like Rep. Elissa Slotkin and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow are reinforcing Michigan's reputation as a factory for Democratic stars. What we're watching: Biden — whose opinion on the calendar will ultimately be the most important — was in Michigan this week to pitch his vision for domestic manufacturing and semiconductors. Whitmer is also scheduled to be in D.C. this week for a donor event at the Democracy Alliance conference. Share this story.     2. 🤝 Scoop: Jeffries' progressive bridge-building Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) at a House Judiciary Committee hearing in 2020. Photo: Alex Edelman-Pool/Getty Images   Newly elected Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has been sitting down with leading House progressives, including at least three members of the "Squad," as he prepares to lead the caucus into the post-Pelosi era, Axios' Andrew Solender has learned. Why it matters: A major task Jeffries will have as minority leader will be maintaining unity within his caucus — a fractious array of business-friendly moderates and urban progressives that spans a range of demographic divides. Jeffries' history with the left flank of his party has been fraught at times. "The extreme left is obsessed with talking trash about mainstream Democrats on Twitter," he told the New York Times last year. Jeffries also launched a PAC last year with several other Democrats to help House incumbents fend off primary insurgents. That would include Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), who both unseated longtime establishment members in Jeffries' home state. Driving the news: Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said she had a "really good conversation" with Jeffries yesterday and has encouraged him to "sit down with some of the key members in the left part of the caucus." He has already done so with Ocasio-Cortez, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), the three Squad members told Axios — with more meetings planned. Jayapal said of Jeffries' past comments about the left: "I hope he doesn't continue to use some of that language, because ... it's not actually reflecting what I think he believes about progressives." Keep reading.     3. 👬 Senate's gay-marriage evolution Data: U.S. Senate; Chart: Axios Visuals. Notes: Numbers for Defense of Marriage Act represent "nay" votes, while numbers for Respect for Marriage Act represent "yea" votes. One Democrat didn't vote in 1996. Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) voted last night to protect marriage equality rights — a reversal from 26 years ago, when they voted to define marriage as between one man and one woman, Axios' Stef Kight reports. By the numbers: In 1996, 32 out of 47 Senate Democrats voted in support of the Defense of Marriage Act. In 2022, 49 out of 50 Democrats — Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) missed the vote — voted for the Respect for Marriage Act, which officially repeals DOMA. Four Democrats, including Leahy and Murray, have been in the Senate long enough to vote both times. Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) voted both times in defense of same-sex marriage. Share this graphic.     A message from Visa Friendly fraud is not so friendly     Losses from friendly fraud, which is when a purchaser disputes a legitimate purchase, cost merchants billions of dollars every year. What you need to know: Visa's new dispute policy will help protect small businesses and merchants from these losses. Learn more.     4. 👀 Mapped: Coastal Dems' power Via Politico's Sarah Ferris Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) created the above graphic for her pitch to become Democratic caucus vice chair, centered on the need for Midwestern representation, according to Politico's Sarah Ferris. Dingell ended up losing to Rep. Ted Lieu — a Californian.     5. 🧀 1 cheesy thing Menu courtesy of the White House Above: The menu of cheeses for President Biden's state dinner tomorrow with French President Emmanuel Macron, designed by first lady Jill Biden and White House chefs. Also on the menu: American Osetra caviar, butter poached Maine lobster and Newton unfiltered Chardonnay 2018.     A message from Visa Preventing fraud with the power of AI     Hackers are constantly innovating — and at Visa, so are we. What you need to know: Visa applies the latest deep learning techniques to reduce false customer declines by as much as 30%. This means more sales for merchants of all sizes. Learn more.   Caption contest winner: "The happiest guy in the room is the one on the horse!" Congrats to Ellen H. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: