Monday, September 19, 2022

😠This Recession Is About to Get Worse

Good morning. When the first quarter GDP numbers came out and surprised many with a negative...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. When the first quarter GDP numbers came out and surprised many with a negative read, we went out on a limb and stated that we're in a recession. The second quarter GDP numbers bore that out, even as many tried to walk back the definition of a recession.

Still more data points to a further slowdown. Imports into America's largest port at Los Angeles, dropped 17 percent in August. That's taken port volume back to levels last seen in 2014. And the latest numbers out of FedEx (FDX), who handles everyone's packages, is another sign that things are getting worse, not better.

That's why we're continuing to focus on some downside trading opportunities here. And while stocks will recover in time, it's looking to be longer than many market participants currently expect.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 30,822.42 -0.45%
S&P 3,873.33 -0.72%
NASDAQ 11,448.40 -0.90%
*As of market close
Markets moved lower on Friday, but closed near their highs of the day.
Oil traded flat, staying at $85.31 per barrel.
Gold rallied 0.4 percent, last going for about $1,683 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies trended lower, with Bitcoin at $19,623 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Find Companies With Strong Real Demand Now
Inflation can be an insidious force, making investing a challenge. That's because there are some areas where customers have to spend more due to inflation, whether they like it or not. Other businesses are more elastic, so higher prices can lead to a big drop in volume.

Companies that have strong real demand now can likely perform well in the future as inflation starts to wane. The trick is in finding the right trend to track amid today's high inflation.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)
Arik Ruchim, a director and major owner of Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), recently picked up 200,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 1.9 percent, and came to a total cost of just over $4.595 million.

He was joined by another major owner, who also picked up 200,000 shares for the same price. Both of the major owners were buyers in August, with multiple buys each totaling over 1,000,000 shares. Other company executives including the CFO have also been buyers this year.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Zillow Group (Z)
Shares of real estate analytics company Zillow Group (Z) are down 61 percent over the past year, with shares dropping well ahead of the current slowdown in the housing market. One trader sees a further drop ahead.

That's based on the October $40 puts. With 32 days until expiration, 6,502 contracts trade compared to a prior open interest of 173, for a 38-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $5.48 to make the bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
China's Economy Continues to Slow

China's economy has continued to slow in recent months, as the country has pursued a policy of shutting down cities showing cases of Covid. However, thanks to stimulus measures, the country is seeing a moderation in its slowdown, but further declines could still slow global economic growth.
FedEx Warns on Economy

Federal Express (FDX) saw shares have their largest one-day drop in the company's history on Friday. The package delivery company announced weak quarterly results and withdrew its full-year guidance. The reason? A slowing economy that looks likely to slow even further in the months ahead.
Wegman's Ends Self-Checkout App

Grocery store chain Wegman's is ending a self-checkout app. First rolled out in 2019, the app allowed shoppers to scan, bag, and pay for groceries and skip a checkout line altogether. However, rampant shoplifting has caused the grocery chain to suspend its use.
CFPB Looks to Regulate BNPL Industry

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has issued a report suggesting that more oversight is needed for the buy now, pay later (BNPL) industry. The Bureau is looking to issue guidance for BNPL vendors in line with reporting requirements for the credit card industry. The move comes as BNPL platforms have increased their loan approval, and while late fees have soared.
White House Unveils Crypto Regulation Framework

The White House has released a framework on what cryptocurrency regulation in the United States should look like. This follows up on an executive order issued in March to examine the pros and cons of cryptocurrency adoption. The framework looks to crack down on fraud in the space, while also working to make borderless transactions easier.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
NEM 3.031%
IRM 2.794%
DLTR 2.74%
LEN 2.709%
NFLX 2.415%
BOTTOM
FDX 21.45%
IP 11.467%
WRK 11.068%
PKG 10.409%
CTRA 7.004%

Quote of the Day
The Fed needs to pick their poison. Do you continue strong ahead to tamp down inflation at the risk of recession, at the risk of increasing unemployment? It's truly a dilemma, but I think that given what we have heard from the Fed the focus is squarely on inflation.
- Mike Loewengart, head of portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley, on why the market will likely continue to trend down as the Fed appears on a track to keep raising interest rates until the economy is in a much steeper recession.

Sponsored Content
The Million Dollar Lie, Here's What To Do…
This is going to be hard to hear.

But you've been sold the biggest lie on Wall Street.

The reality is, Wall Street actually can't trade the way I do, not because they don't want to, but because legally they CAN'T.

And since they can't profit from this sector, they want you to completely ignore it.

But I'm blowing the lid off of this hidden sector once and for all.

And I'm going to share this bombshell report on how you can do it too using just one pattern that's created more millionaires than any other strategy I'm aware of.

Click HERE to get immediate access completely free.

(By clicking on this link you are getting a free subscription to Tim Sykes Supernova newsletter and The Morning Bullets newsletter.)


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