News : Southeast Asia’s moment

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Southeast Asia’s moment

Sep 28, 2022

By Ryan Heath, Zoya Sheftalovich and Stuart Lau

Follow Ryan on Twitter | Follow Zoya | Follow Stuart

Good morning from Singapore, the former British colony that's feeling fairly high and mighty this week as the British economy and currency tanks, despite six years of trying to become "Singapore-on-Thames" after voting to leave the EU.

Liz Truss vs. Neera Tanden: The shade is coming thick and fast from other quarters: check out the White House's Neera Tanden mocking Britain's policy choices.

IMF vs. Kwasi Kwarteng: The International Monetary Fund has urged the U.K. chancellor to reevaluate tax cuts announced last week, which led to the British pound plummeting.

James Cleverly, the new U.K. foreign secretary, will be in Singapore Thursday to defend his country: In his first major speech on the job, he's the star speaker at the 9th Milken Asia Summit.

Perhaps Cleverly's participation is a sign of impending good fortune: Truss, now the British prime minister, was the last U.K. foreign secretary to address Milken Asia.

The Milken event has a cozy feel: 1,100 participants plus 200 or so staff, in the recently renovated Four Seasons Hotel in the city's upscale Orchard district. Among the changes since the last fully in-person Milken gathering here in 2019: A Nobu restaurant has replaced the hotel's indoor tennis court, and there's a new spillover venue, the nearby Voco Orchard Hotel, accessed from the main venue via an art-studded walkway.

SINGAPORE'S POLE POSITION

It's Formula One Grand Prix season here in Singapore, but also a massive conference season.

All this is a warm-up for the world shining its spotlight on Southeast Asia over the next two months. Coming up: ASEAN, East Asia, G-20 and APEC summits.

The G-20 will be particularly tense mid-November, with the prospect of Presidents Joe Biden, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in the same room for the first time.

"This is Southeast Asia's moment," Curtis Chin, Milken Institute's new Asia Center director, told Global Insider. "You shouldn't look at Southeast Asia through the prism of U.S. and China, it should be seen as an opportunity in and of itself."

MICE INFESTATION: Some 90,000 delegates have descended on Singapore this month, for 25 high-profile "MICE" — that's the acronym Singaporeans use for the meetings, incentives, conventions and events that help float the city's reputation as a finance hub and global city.

Global Insider is here to partner with the Milken summit.

ECONOMIC CLOUDS: The news context is heavy — dozens of central banks are issuing coordinated interest rate rises in an effort to control inflation. With the U.S. signaling at least two more interest rate rises, money is flowing into U.S. Treasury notes and hurting Asian currencies.

The threat of deglobalization also hangs over Singapore, a city state built on the breaking down of economic barriers.

Singapore desperately wants to be friends with both the U.S. and China, but is trapped between the warring parties, and many here are worried about what a lifetime presidency for Xi would mean for the region. After all: If Beijing can undermine freedom in Hong Kong and Taiwan, who's to say what else it will disrupt?

Not in Singapore …

Vice President Kamala Harris. The U.S. vice president was dispatched this week to Tokyo (she led the presidential delegation to the state funeral of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe) and South Korea.

Check out the orchid dedicated to Harris at the VIP Orchid area in Singapore's National Botanic Garden. Joe and Jill Biden, Barack and Michelle Obama and Mike and Karen Pence have their own hybrids too — but it seems Donald and Melania Trump didn't make the cut.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Milken does only in-person appearances, unless you're U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns, who was granted an exception because attending in-person would have required him to quarantine on return to Beijing.

Covid dropouts: Yes, that's still a thing. Two Milken speakers have dropped out at the last minute due to Covid infection.

MILKEN ASIA — HOW TO FOLLOW

The public sessions of the conference — under the theme "The World Transformed" — run from the evening of Sept. 28 to the early hours of Sept. 30 in the U.S. Eastern time zone.

Livestream | Agenda | Speaker List | Thought leadership background reading

Here's how Ambassador Chin described the last in-person Milken gathering in Tatler. Spoiler alert: There are strong Crazy Rich Asians vibes.

Memo to VIPs : Your staff will not be allowed to collect your credentials. You'll have to show up with your photo ID and vaccine cards in tow. Global Insider witnessed several aides turned away Wednesday when they arrived to fetch their boss' badge.

ON OUR RADAR

Here are the sessions we're keeping a close eye on over the next 24 hours. Singapore is 12 hours ahead of Washington, D.C., as your time reference point.

The World Transformed, 9 a.m.-9:25 a.m. SGT, featuring opening remarks by U.S. Ambassador to Singapore Jonathan Kaplan, and Tharman Shanmugaratnam, a senior minister in the office of Singapore's prime minister.

Accelerating the Path Towards Responsible Consumerism, 10 a.m.-10:45 a.m. SGT, featuring President and CEO of Bombardier Éric Martel.

The Future of U.S.-China Relations: A Conversation with U.S. Ambassador to China Burns, 11:30 a.m.-12 p.m. SGT.

The Next Saga for Asia's Creative Industries, 11:30 a.m.-1 p.m. SGT. Moderated by Chin, featuring Crazy Rich Asians actor Henry Golding, as well as pop star Eric Nam and actress Raline Shah.

Transforming Health through Innovative Medical Philanthropy, 12:45 p.m.-2 p.m. SGT featuring Murdoch Children's Research Institute's Sarah Murdoch.

Talent and Theatrics: The Future of Sports and Entertainment, 3:30 p.m.-4:15 p.m. SGT featuring W Series CEO Catherine Bond Muir, McLaren Racing chief Zak Brown, Candle Media Co-CEO Kevin Mayer and ONE Championship CEO Chatri Sityodtong.

British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly keynote, 6 p.m.-6:30 p.m. SGT, ESG Crescent Ballroom. Welcome remarks by British High Commissioner to Singapore Kara Owen.

INSIDER MILKEN TIPS

Top tips inside Four Seasons

Nobu — a.k.a. the Milken cafeteria — is open for lunch inside the hotel. It's the only time you'll get into Nobu without a reservation and there is a special Singaporean section on the menu, under "NOW." The Global Insider team recommends the Noby cheesecake, with a raspberry wasabi sorbet.

The Garden @ One Ninety at the lobby level is great for social meetings, and the closest thing to the wellness garden Milken operates at its L.A. conference.

The Executive Lounge on the 3rd floor is the calmest spot for business bilaterals. Spotted: JP Morgan's Andy Cohen and Milken CEO Michael Klowden.

Top tourist tip: Singapore Botanic Gardens — it's not as fancy as the light shows down in the Marina, but you can find a global collection of orchids named in honor of world leaders. Surprisingly good freshly brewed iced teas are available in the gift shop near the main entrance — get the pearls.

Top voyeur tip: Keep an eye for F1 drivers jogging around the city. You'll know it's them by the Netflix cameras following along.

QUOTABLE

DECRYPTING CRYPTO: Cryptocurrencies aren't a Ponzi scheme, and their days as headline news won't last forever, according to the top brass at crypto trading platform Binance.

Singapore is tightening the screws on cryptocurrencies, including an advertising ban, but that doesn't phase Richard Teng, regional head at Binance: "Every jurisdiction we go to there are different (policy) considerations," he told a closed Milken session attended by POLITICO.

While Teng avoided the combative tone some crypto and tech entrepreneurs adopt with regulators — "it makes perfect sense for us to work closely with regulators, no matter how high the compliance cost," he said — when asked how attractive Singapore is as a crypto hub, Teng could only let out a big sigh.

Binance's version of good regulation is: "Taking into account two dimensions: both protecting customers and supporting innovation," Teng said, code for urging regulators to look at more than risks to consumers. He urged potential crypto users to ignore celebrity endorsements of various platforms and coins, and instead "do your own research."

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GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

TALENT WARS PROMPTING NEW GOVERNMENT CARROTS: A shortage of skilled labor in some industries is leading more governments to increase incentives for workers to relocate to a country. Jonathan Pearlman tallies up what's on offer.

GLOBAL SANCTIONS INDEX: The data was collected by Castellum.AI from 198 countries, the United Nations and the European Union. The index ranks "every single sanctions list globally" using "an entirely data-driven approach," Castellum.AI's Spencer Vuksic told Global Insider.

GLOBAL POLICY CENSUS — PESSIMISM REIGNS: YouGov and Friedrich Ebert Foundation have published a poll of 15 major countries across all continents that found:

— A supermajority is "very" or "extremely" worried about energy prices and inflation in the near future

— Less than half of respondents in any country said they believe the Biden administration is "keeping the world safe from terrorism and rogue nations"

— While Kenya, Indonesia, India and South Africa are more optimistic, fewer than 15 percent of respondents in rich countries said they believed the world would be "much better off" in the near future

UNDERSTANDING NORD STREAM SABOTAGE

After natural gas leaks were detected on the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines this week, the key question is: Why would Russia blow up its own infrastructure?

The news immediately prompted claims of sabotage — and while the EU stopped short of explicitly blaming Moscow, Ukraine did accuse Russia of a "terrorist attack."

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov's response: "We cannot rule out any possibility right now. Obviously, there is some sort of destruction of the pipe." Translation: We did it.

But why?

With Europe looking elsewhere for gas amid Russia's war on Ukraine, reports of Germany's gas reserves filling up and gas prices falling off their peaks, Russia-watchers reckon Putin did what he always does: destabilize, sow chaos, throw everything at the wall and see what sticks. And he got a result: After the explosions, the price on the EU's benchmark TTF gas hub was up by 20 percent, in response to concern over Europe's future gas supplies.

Putin has little to lose: Germany has scrapped Nord Stream 2, and with supply on Nord Stream 1 constantly interrupted by Gazprom "maintenance," those pipelines were dead in the water anyway.

CHINA INFLUENCE OPERATION TARGETED U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS: Fake social media accounts on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, originating in China, are peddling partisan attacks to American voters, according to a report from Meta .

The campaign had many targets in both parties, including President Joe Biden, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, climate envoy John Kerry and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and Florida is one of the main geographic targets. More from POLITICO's Mark Scott.

Tech companies say they've managed to shut the accounts before significant reach and influence was achieved, but the report demonstrates China's increasingly sophisticated attempts to sow distrust within the U.S.

BY THE NUMBERS — WHO OWNS THE DEBT OF CLIMATE VULNERABLE COUNTRIES?

A new policy brief from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center finds the majority of the $686 billion in public debt owed by the so-called "V-20" group of countries most vulnerable to climate change, is owed to private creditors and multilateral development banks.

The World Bank, which has come under criticism for the pace of its reaction to climate issues, holds 20 percent of the debt.

AMERICA (DOESN'T) MEET WORLD

AMERICA EMPTY-CHAIRING DURING ANOTHER CRITICAL ELECTION: American politicians of all stripes say they want to boost democracy in Brazil. The Biden administration has dispatched national security adviser Jake Sullivan; Victoria Nuland , the State Department's undersecretary for political affairs; and William Burns, the head of the Central Intelligence Agency, to ram home the point.

But the U.S. won't have eyes and ears on-the-ground via an ambassador in Brazil during next week's election, which President Jair Bolsonaro has desperately sought to undermine (just as they don't have one in Italy as Giorgia Meloni sweeps into power).

Travis Waldron looks at why that is and why it matters ahead of a crucial contest in the world's fourth most populous democracy.

DON'T MISS - MILKEN INSTITUTE ASIA SUMMIT : Go inside the 9th annual Milken Institute Asia Summit, taking place from September 28-30, with a special edition of POLITICO's Global Insider newsletter, featuring exclusive coverage and insights from this important gathering. Stay up to speed with daily updates from the summit, which brings together more than 1,200 of the world's most influential leaders from business, government, finance, technology, and academia. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

GLOBETROTTERS

MORE MILKEN TIPS …

SINGAPORE'S BEST BARS: The Global Insider team is focused on bringing you the best content, so we're taking the word of The World's Best Bars guide. They recommend:

Sago House, 28 HongKong Street, MO Bar, Atlas, Analogue, No Sleep Club, Republic at The Ritz-Carlton, Nutmeg & Clove

SINGAPORE'S BEST COFFEE:

Mad Roaster, in Amoy Food Center: Every cup is designed by a refugee.

Coffee Academics, flagship café at Scotts Square is one of BuzzFeed's "25 coffee shops you have to see before you die." h/t Peter Anderson

Common Man Coffee Roasters, which also does a killer breakfast. h/t Stuart Meek

PLANETARY DEFENSE, GLOBAL TEAM: While NASA — which intentionally slammed a spacecraft into an asteroid, Dimorphos, on Monday at 14,000 miles per hour — got all the attention in this story, that was only part of the picture. Also involved: Italian Space Agency technology, and now a global team of astronomers.

Did it work? We don't know yet. Astronomers around the world will now spend weeks observing what changed. Four years from now, the European Space Agency's Hera project will conduct detailed surveys of both the asteroid Didymos and its small moonlet Dimorphos, to determine if intercepting an asteroid this far from Earth does enough to knock it off-course, or whether the interception has to happen sooner.

FIRED: Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank have voted to fire its president, Mauricio Claver-Carone, after an ethics probe found he likely carried on an intimate relationship with a subordinate.

THE GROVELING STATE VISIT: The United States doesn't grovel. Except when it does. Biden will host the first state visit of his presidency on Dec. 1, bringing French President Emmanuel Macron to the White House. Officially, the dinner will "underscore the deep and enduring relationship between the United States and France, our oldest ally, that is founded on our shared democratic values, economic ties, and defense and security cooperation."

We can only assume the Elysée got more than a few hours' notice of this news.

Thanks to editor Dave Brown and producer Hannah Farrow.