News: Biden and DeSantis pledge 'close coordination' as Ian bears down

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Biden and DeSantis pledge 'close coordination' as Ian bears down

Sep 28, 2022

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By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a press conference.

President Joe Biden spoke with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday night "to discuss the steps the Federal government is taking to help Florida prepare for Hurricane Ian." | Rebecca Blackwell, File/AP Photo

Listen to today's Daily Briefing

DRIVING THE DAY

EYE ON THE STORM — Hurricane Ian is set to reach Florida's Gulf Coast as early as this afternoon after days of dire warnings about its potential impacts. This morning, the national Hurricane Center said winds had reached 140 mph, strengthening to a Category 4.

More than 2 million people are under orders to leave their homes. Said Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS: "That doesn't mean you need to go all across God's creation to evacuate — just get to the higher ground and get into a safe structure."

President JOE BIDEN spoke with DeSantis on Tuesday night "to discuss the steps the Federal government is taking to help Florida prepare for Hurricane Ian," White House press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said in a statement, adding that Biden and DeSantis "committed to continued close coordination."

Our Arek Sarkissian and Kelly Garrity report that residents are being told to expect widespread power outages, gasoline shortages and cellphone service blackouts. (Ian left Cuba entirely without power before crossing the Gulf.) DeSantis emphasized the extreme danger posed by the expected coastal flooding: "The Gulf is going to be very angry as this comes in."

Emily Mahoney and Kirby Wilson of the Tampa Bay Times note some good news amid the gloom: What had looked like "a potentially disastrous forecast for the Tampa Bay region" — a direct hit that could push 15-foot swells into the heart of Florida's second-largest metro area — turned "into one that was merely terrible" after Ian started tracking south Tuesday.

In their 11 p.m. forecast, National Hurricane Center meteorologists warned of "life-threatening" storm surge, "with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region," while also warning of widespread wind impacts and potentially devastating inland flooding thanks to the expected deluge of rain.

A must-read this morning from Zack Colman: "People built in harm's way. Here comes Ian."

MANCH GETS MITCHED — He's been the de facto decision-maker for the Senate Democratic majority, but after a week of holding the line, Sen. JOE MANCHIN had to admit defeat Tuesday — for now.

The West Virginia senator was dead-set on passing a permitting overhaul for energy projects this month, by tying the legislation to a must-pass spending stopgap. Manchin world was convinced the time was right for action, with fresh buy-in from Democratic leaders, combined with long-standing support for the notion of permitting reform among Republicans.

The case Manchin made to his GOP colleagues over the past few days was simple: It's now or never. The deal he'd cut with Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER allowing for a permitting vote in return for his backing of the Inflation Reduction Act unlocked dozens of Democratic votes that might not otherwise exist. But he underestimated the power of Republican spite — and Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL's whipping.

In their new examination of the deal's collapse, Burgess Everett, Josh Siegel and Zack Colman write "there were simply too many problems for [Manchin] to solve in too short a time," and once McConnell "telegraphed he had the votes to stop Manchin, the centrist requested that Schumer pull the permitting language out" of the short-term funding bill.

Manchin said in a statement it was "unfortunate that [senators] are allowing politics to put the energy security of our nation at risk." One source in his orbit said his surprise and disappointment was genuine: "He's always surprised when politics kills good policy. But I think that's why he pulled it — so he can regroup and pass it after the election."

But Tuesday's surrender was a reminder that Manchin's "leverage is less strong than it was this summer when he controlled the deciding vote on Democrats' agenda," the trio write. Still, "party leaders see themselves as indebted to him and aren't going to walk away now."

There are at least two more must-pass bills that Manchin could try to attach the proposal to: the annual defense authorization bill and the lame-duck government spending bill. But consummating a deal would require delicate new negotiations with Republicans — and, most likely, McConnell's blessing.

McConnell didn't give Manchin much reason to hope Tuesday, calling his effort a "phony attempt to address an important topic" while suggesting that the issue might be better handled under a GOP majority: "Republicans are the leaders on this issue."

With Manchin's legislation axed, the funding stopgap moved forward on a 72-23 Senate vote, all but removing the threat of a government shutdown at midnight Friday . Congress will have until Dec. 16 to reach a broader deal on fiscal 2023 appropriations — or pass another stopgap. More from Government Executive

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Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza.

MIDTERM MARKERS — As we enter the final weeks of the midterm run-up, we want to give you a snapshot of two key indicators from our weekly POLITICO/Morning Consult polling.

1) Biden's approval rating: The president took a dip in his favorability ratings this week, notching an overall 41% approval, compared to his 46% mark last week. That includes a drop among Democrats, from 85% last week down to 80% this week.

2) The generic congressional ballot: Republicans have closed the gap a bit here, trimming Dems' advantage to 45% to 43% if the election were held today. Last week, Dems were leading 46% to 41%.

A chart shows the percentage of registered voters by who they would vote for in midterm races, if the election were held today

SURVEY SAYS — A new Grinnell College/Selzer & Co. national poll out this morning has Democrats up 46% to 42% on the generic ballot — but Biden sitting on a gnarly 36% approval rating. Eighty-one percent of voters say "the overall health of American democracy" will be a major factor in their vote.

— On the other hand, Reuters/Ipsos has Biden's approval rating ticking up this week to 41%.

BIG PICTURE

THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — Aware that some Democrats don't want him on their campaign trail, Biden is taking a lighter touch with the midterms, focusing on fundraising and espousing a national message around big-picture themes, Chris Cadelago and Jonathan Lemire report this morning. "Biden himself has, to this point, been comfortable with the lighter public footprint," they find. "That's an evolution from earlier this year, when the president hit a low-water mark, and he complained to aides that he was not in demand on the campaign trail."

LEFT BEHIND — Major progressive groups struggled in Democratic primaries this year, as "the Democratic establishment has an edge in the battle for the party's soul," FiveThirtyEight's Meredith Conroy and Nathaniel Rakich find in a new analysis of endorsements and outcomes. Progressives notched some big wins in open-seat races, but they had little success taking down incumbents. Still, some on the left say they're playing a long game — and they're changing the Democratic Party more every year.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A new poll of Americans ages 18 to 34 from YouGov and American University's Sine Institute for Policy & Politics finds that just 35% of young adults rate their enthusiasm for voting in November as 8 or higher on a 10-point scale. Generally, the survey finds dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy. But they remain somewhat optimistic about the prospects for change: Seventy-six percent agree that "dramatic change could occur in this country if my generation banded together and demanded change." Poll toplines

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

BORDER SONG — Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (D-Texas) blasted Biden over the border on Fox News on Tuesday, putting some distance between the unpopular president and the vulnerable congressman. "Obviously the border is not secure," Cuellar said. "I have tried and I have tried and I have tried" to get Biden to do more. More from the San Antonio Express-News

NOT GOING ANYWHERE — Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) may generate controversies nationally, but she's on firm footing to win reelection, The Denver Post's Conrad Swanson reports from Craig. "Voters throughout her district told The Denver Post they appreciate that Boebert is a loud voice for conservative values. They like and relate to her unpolished and blunt demeanor. She's standing up for at-risk religious freedoms and gun rights, they say. They shrug off the string of controversies."

PENCE'S PLAY — Former VP MIKE PENCE's Advancing American Freedom is going up with ads hitting Reps. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.) and ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.) on inflation, the Washington Examiner's David Drucker reports. They're putting in six figures each on TV ads.

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BATTLE FOR THE STATES

DOWN BALLOT — The Democratic Association of Secretaries of State is reserving $11 million worth of TV ads across Michigan, Minnesota and Nevada, Zach Montellaro scooped . It'll more than double that amount of spending by the election. The tranche of spending — which will launch ads that highlight issues like abortion as well as elections — is a sign of how seriously Democrats are taking races that could be consequential for democracy. "Republicans have not yet mounted a comparable national effort to back GOP secretary of state candidates."

HOT POLLS

— Colorado: Democratic Sen. MICHAEL BENNET is leading JOE O'DEA, but not by that much, per Trafalgar: He's up 49% to 43%. Democratic Gov. JARED POLIS is ahead of HEIDI GANAHL 49% to 41%.

— Ohio: In the Senate race, Democratic Rep. TIM RYAN is ahead of J.D. VANCE 46% to 43%, per Siena College/Spectrum News. Republican Gov. MIKE DeWINE is cruising: He leads NAN WHALEY 55% to 32%. The chief justice race is tied at 40% apiece.

— Arizona: Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY leads BLAKE MASTERS 49% to 42%, per the Arizona Republic/Suffolk University. The gubernatorial race is closer: Democrat KATIE HOBBS is just ahead of KARI LAKE, 46% to 45%. A new Marist poll out today finds the opposite gubernatorial result — Lake 46%, Hobbs 45% — but a slightly bigger advantage for Kelly: 51% to 41%.

HOT ADS

With help from Steve Shepard

— North Carolina: Senate Majority PAC, the top super PAC for Senate Democrats, has been dark on the North Carolina airwaves for more than a month until launching this new ad Tuesday, hitting GOP Rep. TED BUDD's family seed company, which went bankrupt. They've booked ads for the next two weeks. … Meanwhile, House Majority PAC is tying 27-year-old GOP nominee BO HINES to outgoing Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN, who lost his primary for a district on the other side of the state from where Hines is running.

BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY:

8 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

9:30 a.m.: Biden will leave the White House for the Ronald Reagan Building, where he'll speak at the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health at 10 a.m. He'll return to the White House at 10:50 a.m.

11 a.m.: The Bidens will speak in the Rose Garden to celebrate the Americans with Disabilities Act and commemorate Disability Pride Month.

1:15 p.m.: Biden will get a briefing on global economic developments.

6 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House for a Democratic Governors Association reception in D.C. at 7 p.m. He'll return to the White House at 8 p.m.

The White House monkeypox response team and public health officials will brief at 11:45 a.m. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 12:30 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' WEDNESDAY — The VP is in Japan, where she has hosted a roundtable about the CHIPS and Science Act; toured, met with service members and spoken at the USS Howard at Yokosuka Naval Base; and left for Hardy Barracks.

THE HOUSE will meet at noon, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m.

THE SENATE will meet at 10 a.m. to take up the motion to proceed to the vehicle for the CR, with a recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for weekly conference meetings.

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (L) pose for a photo at a campaign event for Kemp.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (L) pose for a photo at a campaign event for Kemp on Tuesday, Sept. 27, in Alpharetta, Ga. | Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

THE WHITE HOUSE

YELLEN DEPARTIN'? — Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN, National Economic Council Director BRIAN REESE and Council of Economic Advisers Chair CECILIA ROUSE could be among the first big departures from the Biden administration after the midterms, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. It's still early yet, but White House is starting to make plans: What happens could depend on which party controls Congress, and "Yellen will also have some say in her fate."

WHAT BIDEN IS HIGHLIGHTING — From the Rose Garden on Tuesday, Biden blasted Republicans — including Sens. RON JOHNSON (Wis.) and RICK SCOTT (Fla.) — for proposing changes to Social Security and Medicare. His speech also focused on efforts to bring down health care costs. More from Yahoo

— Good news: "For the first time in a decade, Americans will pay less next year on monthly premiums for Medicare's Part B plan, which covers routine doctors' visits and other outpatient care," AP's Amanda Seitz reports . "The rare 3% decrease in monthly premiums is likely to be coupled with a historically high cost-of-living increase in Social Security benefits — perhaps 9% or 10% — putting hundreds of dollars directly into the pockets of millions of people."

CONGRESS

DEMOCRACY WATCH — The bipartisan Senate bill to reform the Electoral Count Act and prevent election subversion sailed out of the Rules Committee on a 14-1 vote, notably garnering the support of McConnell on Tuesday. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) was the only committee member to vote no, saying it would harm the fight against voter fraud.

How it's playing: A slight majority of voters think it should be harder for politicians to override election results in new POLITICO/Morning Consult polling out this morning, Brittany Gibson writes. (Many voters don't have specific thoughts about the mechanisms for doing so.)

STOCK AND TRADE — House Democrats released the text of their bill to ban government officials from trading stocks, per Insider's Bryan Metzger and Dave Levinthal. The bill "would also increase penalties for violating federal conflicts-of-interest law and strengthen several transparency provisions."

But, but, but: Congress doesn't have much time to pass it, and House Majority Leader STENY HOYER is proving a major impediment to congressional efforts, WSJ's Natalie Andrews reports. Hoyer has said privately he'll vote against the bill, which is hitting some bumps in the road as Republicans criticize Democrats for not including them enough in the process. Regardless, its Senate prospects look dim.

MAR-A-LAGO FALLOUT

HELLO, GOODBYE — New DONALD TRUMP lawyer CHRIS KISE has shifted away from working on the Mar-a-Lago documents legal fight just weeks after he joined the team, CNN's Kaitlan Collins reports . "The move is notable given Kise, the former solicitor general for Florida, was brought on to the team after a weeks-long search and struggle to find someone willing to take on the case who was also experienced in Florida law." Kise may instead focus on some of the other investigations bearing down on Trump, though the impetus for the change is unclear.

MORE POLITICS

DEMOCRACY DIGEST — Five percent of Americans, or about 13 million, think that force would be justified to put Trump back in the White House, and 15 million say the same to stop him from being prosecuted, per a new University of Chicago study, CBS reports. But the former number has fallen since June 2021, when an estimated 23 million thought force would be justified to reinstall him. The study

2024 WATCH — West Virginia Gov. JIM JUSTICE is weighing a possible Republican bid for Senate when his term ends in two years, potentially foreshadowing a high-profile clash with Manchin, The Parkersburg News and Sentinel's Joselyn King reports . "I really believe the good Lord made me, Jim Justice, for a reason," the former Democrat said. "That reason does not mean for me to just go home and go hunting."

— MIKE POMPEO's CAVFUND is launching ads to run in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — as well as a new website — decrying "woke and weak" policies for the military, Fox News' Paul Steinhauser scooped.

— Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN is hosting national donors for a retreat near Charlottesville on Thursday and Friday, WaPo's Michael Scherer and Ashley Parker report. Sources tell them "the primary purpose of the event, which does not require a donation to attend, is to evaluate Youngkin's capacity to mount a presidential campaign."

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JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

POSTPONED — The House Jan. 6 committee delayed its return to public hearings, originally scheduled for this afternoon, because of Hurricane Ian. No replacement date has been announced yet. More from NPR

LIKE A ROLLING STONE — NYT's Luke Broadwater, Alan Feuer and Maggie Haberman report on some more video evidence of ROGER STONE that the committee has obtained. Among the revelations: Stone texted lawyer DAVID SCHOEN after the insurrection to ask for help with a pardon from Trump. "There will be mass prosecutions," he said. "Mark my words."

IN THE COURTS — "'Afraid of losing their power': Judge decries GOP leaders who back Trump election claims," by Kyle Cheney

WAR IN UKRAINE

APOCALYPSE NOW — In the wake of growing nuclear threats from Moscow, "U.S. and allied intelligence agencies are stepping up efforts to detect any Russian military moves or communications that might signal that VLADIMIR PUTIN has ordered the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine," Bryan Bender reports. "But any indications that the erratic Russian leader has decided to unleash the unthinkable … could come too late, they warned."

— The latest came from DMITRY MEDVEDEV, who said Tuesday that Russia's nuclear brinkmanship is "certainly not a bluff" and that NATO would be too fearful of escalation to respond, per Reuters.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

CATCH THE LEAKERS — Explosions that sprung multiple methane leaks in Europe's Nord Stream pipelines triggered a global blame game Tuesday: Sullivan called the breaks "apparent sabotage," and some European leaders blamed Russia, NYT's Melissa Eddy reports from Berlin. "Russian state media suggested U.S. or Ukrainian involvement." Though the incidents didn't affect current energy supplies, "the leaks hammered home the message that Europe and its energy infrastructure are vulnerable." The CIA warned Europe this summer about the potential for attacks, as Der Spiegel scooped.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

FIONA FALLOUT — Puerto Rico Gov. PEDRO PIERLUISI asked Biden to help the island get crucial fuel supplies by waiving the Jones Act in the wake of Hurricane Fiona, the Miami Herald's Syra Ortiz-Blanes and Alex Roarty report. "The letter escalates the showdown between Puerto Rican leaders and the Biden administration, as island officials seek the quickest way to deliver aid to residents even if it means granting an exception to a politically popular law supported by the president."

VALLEY TALK

TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — TikTok has ramped up its lobbying efforts this year to try to win over a skeptical and sometimes hostile Washington, Bloomberg's Alex Barinka and Emily Birnbaum report. But the team led by MICHAEL BECKERMAN has yet to engage formally with its harshest Republican critics and party leaders, including House Minority Leader KEVIN McCARTHY, House Minority Whip STEVE SCALISE (La.), and Sens. JOSH HAWLEY (Mo.) and MARCO RUBIO (Fla.). And the company may need to erase its trust deficit soon. "Some congressional aides have complained that their most consistent communication with TikTok is through its weekly government affairs newsletter, which arrives unsolicited in their inboxes."

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PLAYBOOKERS

Lizzo played James Madison's crystal flute onstage: "History is freaking cool, you guys."

Former Rep. Michael "Ozzie" Myers will return to prison some 40 years after being jailed in the Abscam scandal.

Tom Colicchio will open a major new restaurant in Penn Quarter.

"Love Is Blind" is apparently casting in D.C.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Seven Letter is adding Paige Rusher and Omari Hardy as directors, Eunice Yau as a manager and Imani Hudson and Sam Smith as content specialists. Rusher previously was press secretary for Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and the HELP Committee. Hardy previously was a Florida state representative.

— We have the trailer for Showtime's new docuseries "The Lincoln Project" from Fisher Stevens and Karim Amer. The five-part show, which "goes behind the scenes of the meteoric rise and sudden rift of the group," premieres Oct. 7.

OUT AND ABOUT — At a private reception at Dauphine's, Terrance Woodbury, Shaniqua McClendon and Richard Fowler hosted "A Toast to Black Journalists" on Tuesday night. SPOTTED: press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, Reps. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) and Shontel Brown (D-Ohio), Symone Sanders, Erica Loewe, Vincent Evans, April Ryan, Geoff Bennett, Eugene Daniels, Jason Johnson, Panama Jackson, David John, Adjoa Asamoah, Juanita Tolliver, Christopher Huntley, Eugene Scott, Gerren Gaynor, Maurice Mitchell, Eva McKend, Quentin and Stefanie James, Kamau Marshall, Damon Young, Antjuan Seawright, Cameron Trimble, Heather Foster, Shadawn Reddick-Smith and Alencia Johnson.

— SPOTTED at a party at Joe's on Tuesday night for Major Garrett and David Becker's new book, "The Big Truth: Upholding Democracy in the Age of the Big Lie" ($24.99): Heather Podesta, Doug Heye, Kevin Madden, Jim Popkin, Robert Costa, Kurt Bardella, Paul Kane, Michael Meehan, Anna Massoglia, Bob Barnett, Ed O'Keefe, Kerrianne Maloy, Margaret Talev, Ken Thomas, Alayna Treene, Christina Ruffini, Samantha Granville, Steven Portnoy, Luke Garrett, Kaia Hubbard, Ward Sloane and Kevin Bohn.

— Ahead of today's White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health, Bread for the World, Mazon: A Jewish Response to Hunger and Islamic Relief USA, hosted an interfaith reception with anti-hunger advocates Tuesday. SPOTTED: Rev. Eugene Cho, Anwar Khan, Claire Babineaux-Fontenot, Luis Garcia, Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), Ben Marcus, Cindy Long and Lisa Carr.

MEDIA MOVE — Jesús Rodríguez is now a staff writer for POLITICO Magazine. He previously was a contributing editor, and recently graduated from Georgetown Law.

STAFFING UP — Zoë Baird was announced as senior counselor to the Commerce secretary for technology and economic growth. She previously had been longtime CEO and president of the Markle Foundation and a nominee for U.S. attorney general.

TRANSITIONS — Hamilton Place Strategies, Ballast Research, Flag Media Analytics, alva, Gotham Research Group and Decode_M are all rebranding today as Penta, led by Matt McDonald. Kevin Madden is returning from Arnold Ventures to join senior partners Tony Fratto, Alberto Lopez-Valenzuela and Mike Berland. Mike Gottlieb will continue atop Ballast Research within Penta. …

… Dave Natonski has joined the lobbying firm HHQ Ventures. He previously was chief of staff to Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.). … Marcus Woodson is now government affairs lead for Ørsted's power-to-x business. He most recently was chief strategist and founder of Black Lake Strategies. … Adriana Rivera is now a legislative aide for Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.). She previously was a legislative correspondent and staff assistant for Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Calif.).

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Lauren Roseman Schwartz, SVP for late night and specials comms at NBC, and Michael Schwartz, director for product strategy and client engagement at Moody's Analytics, welcomed Jesse Elliott Schwartz on Sept. 19. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … Jen O'Malley Dillon … Scott Mulhauser of Bully Pulpit Interactive … Steve Schmidt … L.A. Times' Del Quentin Wilber … POLITICO's Patrick D'Silva, Bob McGovern, Tony Benson … E&E News' Christian Vasquez … DCCC's Matt Corridoni … Vanessa Valdivia … Chrys Kefalas of the National Association of Manufacturers … Dave Davis … Brian Rogers of Bullpen Strategy Group … Abby Livingston … Molly Crosby of Planned Parenthood … Rohan Patel … Rory Murphy of the US-China Business Council … Chris Geidner … William Thompson of Sidley Austin … Jon Summers … Laura Quinn of Catalist … Dan Crawford of the Hub Project … WaPo's Emily Heil … Bhavna Ghia … former Reps. Curt Clawson (R-Fla.) and Steve Largent (R-Okla.) … Marty Machowsky … Florida GOP's Helen Aguirre Ferré … Kelsie Wendelberger … Poppy MacDonald of USAFacts … former Vermont Gov. Madeleine Kunin … American Cleaning Institute's Wanda Stokes and Shawnté Furbush-Jones … Rokk Solutions' James Nash

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Correction: Tuesday's Playbook misstated the CBO cost estimate for Biden's proposed student loan relief plan. It is $400 billion.

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