| | | | |  | | By Erin Durkin , Anna Gronewold and Georgia Rosenberg | Presented by Instacart | New York City's subways abruptly emptied out when the Covid-19 pandemic struck in March 2020. Nearly two and a half years later, the MTA is grappling with the fact that many of those riders may not be coming back, spelling a financial nightmare for the transit system. The MTA on Monday abandoned its rosier projections and issued new numbers predicting that subway, bus and rail ridership will be way down for a very long time. Using an analysis by consulting firm McKinsey & Company, transit officials had expected to have 77 percent of their riders back by this year. Instead, they've hit a wall at about 60 percent. What happened? The Omicron variant renewed the threat posed by widespread Covid-19 transmission, and workers and businesses alike came to a growing realization that remote work is here to stay. Looking forward, new projections expect ridership to still be down by 20 percent at the end of 2026 (and it could be down further under a worst-case scenario). Full recovery may not come until 2035, if it ever does. Straphangers would likely welcome slightly less packed trains for the long haul, but the trouble is coming up with the money to run them. The new numbers mean that the MTA will go off a "fiscal cliff" a year sooner than previously expected, with the $14.5 billion they've gotten in federal aid running out by the end of 2024. After that, it's multibillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. This could mean dramatic service cuts and fare hikes for the riding public, which of course would be likely to drive down ridership even further. Or…someone could find some more money somewhere, a possibility MTA execs are hoping for. The agency's chief financial officer said it should focus on finding new revenue streams next year. In practice, that would mean state or federal taxpayers coughing up more cash — an option that MTA head Janno Lieber has been arguing for , saying that transit should be treated like any other essential service and funded by the government, rather than relying so heavily on revenue from fares. IT'S TUESDAY. Got tips, suggestions or thoughts? Let us know ... By email: EDurkin@politico.com and agronewold@politico.com , or on Twitter: @erinmdurkin and @annagronewold WHERE'S KATHY? Speaking at the New York State Association of Chiefs of Police Annual Conference, the New York State Pipe Trades Association 112th Annual Convention and the New York State Laborers Summer Meeting and signing legislation related to people with disabilities. WHERE'S ERIC? Making a social services related announcement and speaking at the grand opening of the Jackie Robinson Museum and the Mayor's Office for People with Disabilities Sapolin Accessibility Awards.
| | | | A message from Instacart: Instacart connects New Yorkers to the local stores they love in their communities. https://newyorkimpact.instacart.com/ | | | |  | What City Hall's reading | | " Monkeypox cases in NYC surpass 1K, says Health Dept. ," by New York Daily News' Michael Gartland: "The number of people who've tested positive for monkeypox in New York City surpassed 1,000 on Monday — a deeply worrying milestone as the Big Apple continues its efforts to manage that disease and COVID-19 simultaneously. According to the city Health Department, 1,040 people have tested positive for monkeypox as of Monday — a jump of about 200 compared with the city's official count of 839 on Friday. That spike comes just two days after the World Health Organization labeled monkeypox a 'public health emergency of international concern,' the highest alert designation the entity has and one shared by only two other diseases — COVID and polio." — " New York is the nation's frontline defense against monkeypox. It's struggling to respond. ," by POLITICO's Amanda Eisenberg, Shannon Young and Georgia Rosenberg — " As Monkeypox Spread in New York, 300,000 Vaccine Doses Sat in Denmark ," by The New York Times' Joseph Goldstein and Sharon Otterman " Adams Blames Migrants for Shelter Woes. Critics Say That's Too Simple ," by The New York Times' Jeffery C. Mays: "Early last week, Mayor Eric Adams called for federal assistance to help with what he said was a flood of 2,800 asylum seekers who were making it difficult for New York City to fulfill its legal obligation to provide housing to those in need, known as the right to shelter. Mr. Adams said the influx was partly caused by migrant families 'arriving on buses sent by the Texas and Arizona governments.' The mayor's comments created his latest political entanglement, this time against a national backdrop: His assertion began a back-and-forth with the governors of those states — much as a similar accusation from the Washington, D.C., mayor, Muriel Bowser, had drawn headlines a few days earlier. But advocates for the homeless said that Mr. Adams's strategy of blaming the entire spike in shelter population on migrants is a distortion that distracts from the city's homeless crisis, leaving vulnerable families caught in the middle." " NYC files request to vacate in court case over school funding, further stalling negotiations ," by WNYC's Jessica Gould : "The battle over school budget cuts continues in court. New York City has petitioned the state Supreme Court to 'vacate' a temporary restraining order in a lawsuit against the budget reductions granted by a judge on Friday, claiming, in part, that complying with the order will disrupt planning for the coming school year. The suit was brought by a group of parents and teachers who said that dramatic cuts at their schools are leading to the elimination of arts programs, classroom and other staff positions, field trips, and after school enrichment. Mayor Eric Adams' administration has said the reductions were necessary to reflect declining enrollment." " Rikers Island Guards Charged With Misconduct in Teen's 2019 Attempted Suicide ," by The New York Times' Jan Ransom: "For nearly eight minutes, more than a half dozen New York City Department of Correction officers stood by as an 18-year-old detainee named Nicholas Feliciano tried to hang himself in a Rikers Island jail cell, not intervening even when he flailed his arms and then went still. When the officers finally cut Mr. Feliciano down on Nov. 27, 2019, they let his limp body drop to the floor. Over the next three years, as a severely brain damaged Mr. Feliciano received round-the-clock care at Bellevue Hospital, the guards remained on modified duty, allowed to collect their paychecks while working jobs that did not require contact with detainees. But on Monday, the Bronx district attorney filed felony charges against four of the jailers."
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today . | | | | | | | WHAT ALBANY'S READING | | " Monroe County DA under scrutiny after Zeldin incident ," by Times Union's Joshua Solomon: "U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin said that just minutes after he was accosted by a veteran with a sharp object at a campaign event last week, the Republican gubernatorial candidate conferred offstage with Monroe County District Attorney Sandra J. Doorley. 'She said, 'I guess I'm not going to be able to be in charge of this (case),' Zeldin said at a news conference Monday. 'Because she was present; she was a witness. So it was her instant decision ... to recuse herself, and I support that decision.' Doorley's office, however, offered a different version of the story. The district attorney now finds herself facing criticism on two fronts: an ethics debate about her connections to Zeldin's campaign as well as a legal debate over her office's handling of David G. Jakubonis, who was carrying a sharp key-ring-style defense tool when he approached Zeldin at the event outside Rochester on Thursday evening." " New York makes diapers fully tax exempt as Hochul touts $70 million in federal child care cash ," by New York Daily News' Denis Slattery: "Gov. Hochul held a ceremonial signing Monday for a new law exempting diapers from all local sales and use taxes in New York as she touted a $70 million influx of federal funds for child care. Diapers, already exempt from the state's four percent sales tax, will no longer be subject to local taxes when the law goes into effect next year." " Governor Hochul's 'Rolling' Clemency Process Has Set Just One Person Free ," By Hell Gate's Victoria Law: "When Kathy Hochul took office, those seeking clemency–and their loved ones–hoped that she would show more compassion than her predecessor. On Christmas Eve 2021, Governor Hochul announced plans to devote additional staff resources into clemency and create an advisory panel. She also declared that she would grant clemency on "a rolling basis " rather than only once each year. That day she granted nine pardons and one commutation. The singular commutation devastated many behind bars–and outraged family members and advocates–who had hoped for more. Seven months later, Hochul has granted no other clemencies. Since becoming governor, her office has received 286 applications for commutations, and 82 for pardons. … The delays are frustrating advocates who have been working for years to push the governor's office to fully exercise its executive power to grant more clemencies." " After a threat, 23 teachers called in sick. A state court called their move a strike ," by Buffalo News' Barbara O'Brien: "A youth fleeing from an altercation at Dr. Charles R. Drew Science Magnet four years ago threatened to come back the next day and shoot and kill everyone in the school. The next day, 23 Buffalo Public Schools teachers called in sick. A state court now says that act was tantamount to going out on strike. A state appeals court last week upheld an administrative ruling that 16 of the teachers engaged in an unlawful strike when they used a sick day following the fight. The Appellate Division of State Supreme Court, Third Department, upheld a ruling by the Public Employees Relations Board (PERB) against the New York State United Teachers, Buffalo. Although there was evidence to support a different conclusion, there was substantial evidence that the union 'caused, encouraged, instigated, and/or condoned an unlawful strike by 16 of its unit members at Public School 59,' the decision said." #UpstateAmerica: "A new art installation in Sharon Springs is bringing a 'goat-load' of joy to visitors of the historic Beekman Farm."
| | | | A message from Instacart:   | | | | | CAMPAIGN MODE | | Dueling polls show Maloney with sizable lead over Biaggi in New York primary , by POLITICO's Holly Otterbein: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney has a big lead over New York state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi in one of the most closely watched Democratic House primaries remaining this summer. Biaggi, who is challenging the five-term incumbent in the Democratic primary for the newly drawn 17th District, is trailing Maloney by double digits in a pair of internal polls commissioned on behalf of the dueling campaigns and shared exclusively with POLITICO. The point the two teams disagree over is just how much Maloney is ahead — and who's got the momentum. Maloney's polling shows him beating Biaggi by 34 points, 52 percent to 18 percent — almost exactly what another internal survey by his team found in late May and early June. Biaggi's numbers still show her behind, but by 13 points, 34 percent to 21 percent. Despite the deficit, her campaign says the figures indicate a race that is tightening in her favor. — " Hudson Valley's Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney admits fumbling Democratic redistricting fracas with Rep. Mondaire Jones ," by New York Daily News' Dave Goldiner: "Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) admitted mishandling the redistricting civil war that effectively forced fellow Democratic lawmaker Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) out of his suburban district. The powerful Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee leader admitted offending many in his party by big-footing Rep. Mondaire Jones, a popular progressive rising star. 'I know there are a lot of strong feelings about it and I think I could've handled it better,' Maloney said in a new interview with News12 Westchester." Espaillat endorses Rivera in open New York congressional race , by POLITICO's Joe Anuta: Rep. Adriano Espaillat endorsed City Council Member Carlina Rivera Monday in the crowded race for a congressional seat covering Lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn, giving her campaign a boost from a top figure in New York City Latino politics. "Carlina has more than proven herself to be a tireless and effective advocate for her constituents in the City Council, which is why I have every confidence in her to take on the toughest fights and deliver results in Congress for NY-10," Espaillat (D-N.Y.) said in a statement.
| | | | INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | | | AROUND NEW YORK | | — State Sen. Jessica Ramos doubled down on her critiques of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. — A lesser-known sixth co-defendant in the Central Park Five case had his related conviction overturned . — Pfizer Inc. will spend $470 million to expand its vaccine research facilities 25 miles northwest of New York City. — Neighbors spent up to $100,000 in legal fees to fight the town of Carmel and Verizon Wireless over a settlement that would have allowed the company to erect a 140-foot cell tower. — The smoking Bowline Point power generator was in violation of state air pollution control laws earlier this month. — Ice cream truck owners are struggling to stay afloat amid rising fuel and food costs. — The MTA will focus its upgrade efforts on the Sixth Avenue subway line.
| | SOCIAL DATA BY DANIEL LIPPMAN | | HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Erin Gloria Ryan ... Dan Harris ... Treasury's Jonathan Davidson … Lia Seremetis
| | | | A message from Instacart: Across New York, Instacart shoppers connect local communities to neighborhood businesses and give customers more time to spend with friends and family. https://newyorkimpact.instacart.com/ | | | | | Real Estate | | " He Runs a New York Real Estate Empire. Did He Steal It? ," by The New York Times' Stefanos Chen, Ted Clifford and Camellia Burris: "The practice is known as deed theft, and as city and state officials promised to crack down on it, they homed in on Mr. Solny. The Brooklyn district attorney, whose office has charged him with taking the homes of seven families, called his behavior 'despicable.' In Queens, prosecutors accused Mr. Solny and his associates of cheating 10 people out of their properties. The court appointed a monitor to scrutinize his transactions. But an examination by The New York Times has found that not only is Mr. Solny still profiting from buildings under dispute, city agencies are contributing to his earnings by subsidizing the rent at some of his properties." " Madison Square Garden held talks about moving to Hudson Yards ," by Crain's Aaron Elstein: "The owners of Madison Square Garden held talks about relocating the arena to Hudson Yards, a move that would have freed space to build an entirely new Penn Station. No agreement was reached earlier this year because Garden executives didn't like the plan put forward by The Related Cos., Hudson Yards' developer, to build a new arena atop a casino. 'We rejected that proposal,' an MSG representative told Crain's, describing Related's idea as 'unworkable.' A city official said detailed renderings were produced showing a new Garden in Hudson Yards, but the proposal died during the spring."
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