Donald Trump’s summer slump

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Jul 26, 2022 View in browser   By David Siders With help from Calder McHugh HEARING FOOTSTEPS — No subject has Republicans talking in recent weeks quite like the apparent weakening of Donald Trump. It's not just idle chatter. Whether it's the slow drip of the Jan. 6 committee hearings , the rise of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or the passage of time — and probably because of all three — rank-and-file Republicans appear more open than ever to the prospect of a different nominee in 2024. Trump, returning to D.C. for the first time today, appeared to know it — back at the scene of the crime, but offering the closest thing to a policy speech you'll ever hear from him. It was a tacit acknowledgment, during a summer slump in which Trump's polling has taken a hit and fundraising has slowed down , that Republicans may be tiring of the 2020 election talk — and that the former president's grievances might go better with a veneer of forward-looking policy ideas. Today, an uncharacteristically subdued Trump played some of his greatest hits — including his false claims about the 2020 election and his perceived persecution by enemies — but also spoke about crime and immigration. Everything we know about Trump's mercurial nature suggests that this was likely a one-off — that Trump's turn toward policy won't stick. And it might not matter. Though the 45th president's dominion over the Republican Party is not what it was a year ago, he is still king. That jarring New York Times/Siena College poll that had everyone going bananas? Yes, it showed nearly half of GOP primary voters would prefer a Republican other than Trump in 2024. But Trump was still far ahead at 49 percent, with the next-closest choice, DeSantis, running 24 percentage points behind him. If the primary were held today, Trump's performance would still be good enough to capture the nomination. After losing in Iowa in 2016, he carried one early primary state after another without cracking 50 percent. Trump appears to recognize that 2024 will be contested. His audience today witnessed "policy speech" Trump. But the more familiar "kick your opponents in the teeth" Trump is also out on the road — already sounding like the Republican who tore down the likes of "low-energy Jeb" Bush, "lyin' Ted" Cruz and "little Marco Rubio" in the 2016 primaries. Over the weekend in Arizona, his target was Larry Hogan, the Maryland governor and Trump nemesis who may run against him in 2024. Hogan, Trump told his supporters out West, is "very much like [Arizona Gov. Doug] Ducey, actually. Just not as good looking … Hogan, Larry Hogan, you ever hear of him? Real RINO … All he has to do is look into a mirror and he'll [see] it's not going to work." Republican crowds still eat up that combative approach, as they do Trump's animating cause — the lie that the 2020 election was stolen. That's something potential rivals like DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence, who also spoke in Washington today, are careful to tip-toe around. They know that no matter what happens to Trump, Trumpism isn't going anywhere. "You've got to distinguish between Trump the man and Trump the phenomenon," said Sarah Longwell, a moderate Republican strategist who has been conducting a series of focus groups of 2020 Trump supporters. "Trump the phenomenon is still in charge of the Republican Party." Like pollsters and other political observers, Longwell, who became a vocal supporter of Joe Biden in 2020, has seen an erosion of GOP interest in Trump running again in 2024. But that doesn't mean Republicans don't want a "Trump direction," as she put it. "Many times," Longwell said, focus group participants who want someone other than Trump say something that is simple but revealing about their affinity for the former president. "If Trump runs again, you only get four years," Longwell said. "If it's DeSantis or somebody, you get eight." Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight's author at dsiders@politico.com or on Twitter at @davidsiders .   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .     What'd I Miss? — N.H. poll: Biden's favorability in the state is at an all-time low: Biden's favorability ratings are at an all-time low among residents of the state that holds the nation's first presidential primary , according to a poll released today by the University of New Hampshire. Only one-fifth of New Hampshire residents want Biden to seek a second term in 2024, according to the poll. The president is statistically tied with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in 2024 presidential support. — White House doctor says Biden well enough to resume exercise: White House physician Kevin O' Connor said today that Biden has completed his five-day course of the Covid antiviral Paxlovid and "now feels well enough to resume his physical exercise regimen." — Appeals court rules Benghazi plotter's 22-year sentence isn't enough: The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals today ruled that Ahmed Abu Khatallah's sentence is "substantively unreasonably low in light of the gravity of his crimes of terrorism." Khatallah, 51, was originally convicted in 2018 on several counts for his involvement in the Sept. 11, 2012, attack on U.S. intelligence and diplomatic facilities in Benghazi, Libya — where armed militants overwhelmed security at the U.S. mission and killed four Americans. Khatallah appealed the conviction, but the government cross-appealed — arguing the 22-year sentence a judge imposed was unreasonably low.   INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .     AROUND THE WORLD DELICATE DIPLOMACY — Biden is expected to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week — perhaps as early as tonight — in a bid to manage rising tensions over Taiwan, trade and a deadlocked bilateral diplomatic agenda, writes Phelim Kine . Biden told reporters last Wednesday that he expects to speak with Xi "within the next 10 days," without providing details on a possible agenda. Although Biden tested positive for Covid-19 the next day, a diplomatic source told POLITICO that the call is still on and it could happen within the next 24 to 48 hours. President Joe Biden meets virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November of 2021. | Alex Wong/Getty Images Senior administration officials will pitch the call as a deliverable-free routine follow-up to a series of communications between Biden and Xi — they last spoke in March and had a virtual meeting in November — that senior administration officials say are to erect "guardrails" designed to ensure competition "doesn't lead to conflict." But Biden's main objective will be to ensure the latest eruption of Chinese rage over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's planned trip to Taiwan doesn't derail discussions for a long-awaited in-person meeting between Biden and Xi in November. GLOOMY GROWTH OUTLOOK — The International Monetary Fund today updated its global growth outlook to 3.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent the next , a further downgrade to an already downbeat April outlook of 3.6 percent for both this year and next, writes Paola Tamma . It also revised inflation upward to 6.6 percent in advanced economies and 9.5 percent in emerging markets — nearly a full percentage point higher than previously forecasted. Fighting inflation should be "the first priority," the fund said in its latest report, counseling central banks that started tightening monetary policy that they should stay the course. Meanwhile, governments should target any spending meant to cushion inflation impacts to the most vulnerable and offset those outlays by higher taxes or spending cuts elsewhere, so as to avoid adding to inflationary pressures. The world's economy contracted in the second quarter of this year, the fund said, due to high inflation in the U.S. and Europe, Covid-19 lockdowns in China and Russia's war in Ukraine. Nightly Number More than 50 percent The share of AAPI voters who reported they have never been contacted by either major party , according to a new poll from Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote. Fifty-two percent had never heard from the Democratic Party, and 60 percent said the same about the GOP. Parting Words The International Space Station. | Roscosmos Space Agency Press Service via AP SPACE SQUABBLE — Russia plans to ditch the International Space Station, it confirmed today, and focus on building its own outpost. "We will fulfill all our obligations to our partners, but the decision to leave this station after 2024 has been made," Yuri Borisov, the head of the Russian State Space Corporation Roscosmos, told Vladimir Putin in a meeting. "Good," Putin responded, according to a readout from the Kremlin . The news that Russia plans to leave the joint mission — currently between the United States, Russia, Japan, Canada and an intergovernmental European agency — would represent the end of a decadeslong partnership. But we shouldn't take their statement on the International Space Station at face value, writes Nightly's Calder McHugh . While Russia reportedly plans to launch its own space station , the Russian program is in financially dire straits — the prospect that they would be able to afford any large scale mission themselves is unlikely. Some experts suggest that Russia's announcement is just the latest in a series of unlikely threats about the space station. "Is 'Russia leaving the ISS' the new 'Water found on Mars' headline? We've seen this story many times before. Color me skeptical of any immediate changes," space policy expert Casey Dreier wondered on Twitter . Still, the announcement is taking place amidst tensions between Russia and the United States that are arguably worse than at any time since the end of the Cold War. And Putin is interested in maintaining a strong posture against the West. That creates a real possibility that NASA could abandon the costly project if Russia were to leave the ISS, putting an end to extensive research projects in fields like astrobiology, hampering the United States' ability to explore space and leaving China as the only superpower with a space station in orbit. The question, which we might not know until the Russian-imposed 2024 deadline gets closer, is whether Russia is willing to hamstring its own space exploration in order to do the same to the United States and its allies. And while these missions look to the stars, a lot will rest on how improved — or how worsened — diplomatic relations are between the two countries here on Earth. Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Myah Ward @myahward Naomi Andu @naomiandu   Follow us

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