| | | | | | | Presented By American Bankers Association | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By the Axios Politics team · May 03, 2022 | | Welcome back to Sneak. Primary day in Ohio was overshadowed by a tectonic Supreme Court leak in Washington. 📅 Join Axios' Tina Reed and Caitlin Owens tomorrow at 12:30pm ET for a virtual event looking at the prognosis for health care reform in 2022. Guests include Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) and MIT professor Jonathan Gruber. Register here. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,324 words ... 5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Biden's abortion play |  | | | Operation Rescue founder Randall Terry (left) leads demonstrators outside the Supreme Court on Tuesday. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images | | | | President Biden and Democrats will try to use their base's new nightmare scenario — a repeal of federal abortion rights — to salvage midterm elections in which inflation, crime and COVID-19 malaise have made losing control of Congress all but a foregone conclusion. Why it matters: One big question is whether they can have that impact between now and November or have to wait for 2024, write Axios' Hans Nichols, Alexi McCammond and Alayna Treene. - The answer is partly in whether key Democratic blocs — including young voters, suburban women and voters of color — care enough about preserving abortion rights.
- Democrats need them to overcome their apathy in a non-presidential election year and turn out this fall with the kind of force needed to make a difference.
- Swing states, states with key Senate and governor's races and those where abortion could soon be banned are especially in play.
What we're hearing: Biden plans to seize on the expected ruling to sharpen the contrast with congressional Republicans, a senior Biden adviser told Axios. He'll also aim to convince the public that voting in November is the best shot to codify the protections of Roe v. Wade into federal law. The president, aides say, is also troubled by what the repeal of Roe could mean in many states: diminished access to safe abortions. - Democrats hope the stark language used in Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito's draft opinion — obtained by Politico and confirmed by the court itself — can finally convince voters access to abortion is, indeed, imperiled.
- "If this was more nuanced, it might be harder to operationalize, but they came in with a sledgehammer," the adviser said. "That makes it a lot easier.
- "Cycle after cycle, it hasn't broken through because people think Roe wouldn't be overturned. This is something that has a real opportunity to break through."
Between the lines: Polling suggests the voters most passionate about protecting abortion rights also historically have been the more reliable in terms of midterm turnout, including Black women and liberal, college-educated women. - But polls also suggest it may be harder for Democrats to use the issue to turn out working-class, male or Hispanic voters.
What they're saying: "We have a real deficit in terms of energy on our side," said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. - "Our base is less energized than their base," Lake said of Republicans, "and now young voters and independent women are going to be energized."
Keep reading. |     | | | | | | 2. Families push POTUS to make other hostage trades |  | | | Joey and Paula Reed. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | | | | The surprise prisoner exchange that led to Trevor Reed's release from Russia is emboldening the families of other hostages to apply new pressure on the Biden administration to make deals for their loved ones, Axios' Zachary Basu reports. Driving the news: More than a dozen families of American hostages and wrongful detainees will appear in front of the White House tomorrow morning — some remotely and others in person — to demand to meet with Biden and share their proposals. - The family of Reed, a former Marine, plans to attend the launch of the "Bring Our Families Home Campaign" alongside the sister of Paul Whelan, another former Marine, who's been detained in Russia since 2018.
- While Reed hasn't yet appeared publicly, family spokesman Jonathan Franks tells Axios he's been "laser-focused" since walking free on the need to advocate for Whelan's release.
- The campaign organizers believe at least 16 of 55 Americans known to be held abroad could be freed through a prisoner exchange.
Between the lines: Three key factors played a role in the agreement to trade Reed for convicted Russian drug smuggler Konstantin Yaroshenko, says Mickey Bergman. He's a hostage expert whose work with former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has led to a number of high-profile releases in recent years. - Reed's deteriorating health: His family believed Russian authorities were failing to treat him for tuberculosis, and feared he could become "the next Otto Warmbier."
- Joey and Paula Reed's relentless pursuit of a meeting with Biden: They protested outside the White House and waited for the president's motorcade for hours in the cold during his visit to Fort Worth, Texas — before eventually meeting with the president on March 30.
- A secret visit Bergman and Richardson made to Moscow on Feb. 23 at the invitation of Russian leadership: Bergman said it demonstrated a deal was still possible, even during a time of war.
What they're saying: "Trades are difficult and seem unjust, but sometimes they're the right thing to do for our fellow Americans, their families and our nation," Bergman told Axios in an interview. Keep reading. | | | | | | | | 3. Charted: Diminished access |  Data: Axios Research; Cartogram: Sara Wise and Oriana Gonzalez/Axios If the draft decision overturning Roe v. Wade is enacted, abortion would immediately become illegal in at least 13 states — and more would likely follow suit quickly, Axios' Oriana Gonzalez reported earlier today. Why it matters: Should the court ultimately overturn the precedents that established the constitutional right to an abortion, a patchwork of state laws would govern the procedure. Where it stands: Wyoming is the 13th state to pass a so-called trigger law — an abortion ban that would kick in right away if the court completely overturns its precedents. - Four states — Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee and West Virginia — have even amended their state constitutions to prohibit any protections for abortion rights.
- Oklahoma state lawmakers passed a bill in late April that would modify the language of the trigger law to ban abortions if the court "overrules in whole or in part" Roe and Planned Parenthood v. Casey.
- Several other states don't have trigger laws in place but would likely move quickly to ban or tightly restrict the procedure if the court clears the way: Florida, Indiana, Montana and Nebraska would be prime candidates, according to analysis from the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive rights research organization.
- Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and South Carolina have all enacted restrictive laws that were then blocked by federal courts. They could try to revive those policies in a post-Roe world.
Keep reading. Go deeper: | | | | | | | | A message from American Bankers Association | | For America's banks, this week and every week is Small Business Week | | |  | | | | When struggling small businesses needed a financial lifeline during the pandemic, America's banks stepped up, facilitating more than $780 billion in Paycheck Protection Program loans. Learn more about how America's banks are helping small businesses succeed. | | | | | | 4. Worthy of your time |  | | | President Biden speaks with employees during a visit to a Javelin anti-tank missile manufacturing line in Troy, Ala. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images | | | | 💵 Democrats and their allies raised more than $5 million on the donation website ActBlue between last night, when the leaked draft Roe v. Wade opinion was published, and this afternoon, according to CNBC, Axios' Andrew Solender reports in tonight's Sneak roundup. 📄 The Senate GOP's campaign arm is circulating a memo, obtained by Alayna, urging its members to be "the compassionate, consensus-builder on abortion" and "expose the Democrats for the extreme views they hold." 🔵 On the Democratic side, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), chair of the House Democrats' campaign arm, urged his party to channel their anger into winning the midterms. He tweeted, "Focusing on what's wrong with Democrats in the Senate or elsewhere is (another) circular firing squad." ⛰️ Colorado Democrats are "actively exploring" an application to hold an early presidential primary, state party spokesperson Megan Burns told Axios. Ten states have already jumped in to try to seize one of up to five early spots. 🤝 The Lugar Center released its annual bipartisan index for lawmakers, which had Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and John Katko (R-N.Y.) leading among House members, and Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) topping the list of senators. 🗳️ Several prominent Democrats in New York's Hudson Valley are hinting at bids to replace Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-N.Y.), who's leaving to serve as New York's lieutenant governor. They include state Sen. Michelle Hinchey and Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan, who previously ran for the seat in 2018. | | | | | | | | 5. Tweet du jour |  | | | Via Twitter | | | | The great Tom Williams, Roll Call's Capitol photographer, caught the frenzy surrounding one of the Senate's female Republican members in the aftermath of the Roe v. Wade leak. - For the record, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) laughed about the scrum — and said the draft decision "rocks my confidence" in the court.
| | | | | | | | A message from American Bankers Association | | For America's banks, this week and every week is Small Business Week | | |  | | | | America's banks stand with their small business customers every day. For Mississippi-based Hancock Whitney, that commitment includes an entrepreneurship and outreach program helping minority and women-owned small businesses. See how the bank is making a difference. | | | | 📬 Thanks for reading this important evening! Please tell your family, friends and colleagues they can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. |  | It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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