Tuesday, April 12, 2022

☹️Why Oil’s Further Tumble Might Not Be Good News…☹️

Good morning. After a 50 percent spike in just a few weeks, oil prices are pulling back. They're...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. After a 50 percent spike in just a few weeks, oil prices are pulling back. They're now near pre-invasion levels from early February. Yet with Russia's invasion of Ukraine still underway, supplies from that region are still unlikely to reach global markets at their fullest levels for some time to come.

That's because China is continuing its stringent Covid lockdown policy. And the longer it goes on, with all the related shutdowns of factories and the port city of Shanghai, the longer global production will be reduced. That's leading to a drop in oil prices now, and could also help kick off the next recession as interest rates start to rise. While consumers may be relieved of some pain at the pump, more supply chain disruptions and shortages will likely more than offset such a drop.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 34,308.08 -1.19%
S&P 4,412.53 -1.69%
NASDAQ 13,411.96 -2.18%
*As of market close
Stocks dropped on Monday, with all three indices closing near lows of the day.
Oil slid 3.5 percent, closing at $94.80 per barrel.
Gold rose 0.6 percent, going for $1,957 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies also declined, with Bitcoin at $40,091 at the market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
The Best Market Defense Is… A Good Defense Stock
Historically, defense stocks haven't necessarily related to the defense and aerospace industry. However, in today's economic and geopolitical climate, it's not a bad place to look.

The space has tended to consistently outperform the overall stock market, and even with a spike in recent weeks, shares of many big names haven't reached an overvalued level right now. That points to further moves higher, even if geopolitical tensions calm down.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)
Kevin Sheehan, Interim CEO at Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY), recently added 10,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 6.5 percent, and came to a total purchase price of $405,800.

This marks the first insider buy of the year. The CEO was the last buyer of 2021 as well. However, other companies insiders, all C-suite executives, have all been regular sellers of shares going back to 2019.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL)
Shares of Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) have been trading in a range over the past year. One trader sees shares, near the low end of their range right now, heading higher in the next few weeks.

That's based on the May 6th $18.50 calls. With 24 days until expiration, 15,210 contracts traded compared to an open interest of 122, for a 125-fold surge in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $1.10 to get into the trade.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
10-Year Yields Hit Highest Level in Three Years

10-year US Treasury yields hit 2.784 percent, their highest level since a brief spike in January 2019. Other rates are also rising, albeit at a slower pace, as rising inflation and more hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials in the past week have led to a push for higher bond yields.
Demand Softens for Consumer Debt

As inflation rates remain at multi-decade highs, consumer debt is increasing. Investors in such debt are growing more concerned, leading to reduced investment demand for this debt. Typically, rising inflation and slowing growth can mean higher yields, but also a higher prospect for borrowers falling behind on car or credit card payments.
Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt

Ratings agency S&P states that Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt. The nation has offered to pay its debt in rubles, not dollars, due to ongoing sanctions by the West targeting the country's banking system. That makes this a "selective default," as those who take rubles for payment may not be able to convert into the equivalent amount in dollars.
Epic Games Raises $2 Billion at $32 Billion Valuation

Epic Games, the company behind Fortnite, has announced that it has raised $2 billion in funding. Half has come from Japanese electronics firm Sony (SNE), and half from Kirkbi, the parent company of the Lego Group. Epic Games expects to use the funding to build a kid-friendly metaverse platform and other growth projects.
Musk Declines Twitter Board Seat

Despite taking a 9.2 percent position in Twitter (TWTR), billionaire Elon Musk has declined to take a board seat on the social media company, following expectation that he would be joining. Musk expects to still provide input regarding the firm's governance, and made several Tweets over the weekend about various plans to improve the platform and company.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
T 7.597%
DAL 3.892%
BBWI 3.447%
LUV 3.407%
SIVB 3.228%
BOTTOM
OXY 6.295%
IDXX 5.916%
NVDA 5.208%
CEG 5.194%
COP 5.017%

Quote of the Day
It's not that anything necessarily 'positive' is happening or that buyers are rushing into the market, but the bad news is fully absorbed for the time being and the market is now waiting for the next data point.
- Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge, on why the market has been volatile in recent weeks as it has been pricing in new data points, and will likely continue to do so, rallying as the current bad news gives way to better news.

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