Tuesday, April 12, 2022

🀫 Scoop: Wargaming water

Plus: Ukraine mission creep | Tuesday, April 12, 2022
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By the Axios Politics team · Apr 12, 2022

Welcome back to Sneak.

Situational awareness: "New York Lt. Gov. Benjamin resigns after bribery conspiracy charges," Axios reported earlier.

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,011 words ... 4 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.

 
 
1 big thing: Scoop — Wargaming water security
Illustration of blueprints with water in the middle

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

 

National Security Council officials are discussing releasing a first-ever White House action plan for global water security, a source with direct knowledge of the plan tells Axios' Hans Nichols and Jonathan Swan.

Why it matters: Climate change, border conflicts, cyber threats and inefficient agricultural practices threaten humanity's future supply. External conflicts over water pose a threat to national security, as well as international relations.

  • A proposed White House action plan would link water security with national security for the first time.

Between the lines: Inflation, crime and Russia's war on Ukraine have taken center stage in U.S. politics as pandemic fears recede. But national security experts' job is to look around the corner for the next big threats.

  • The goals are to ensure America's water security and prevent conflicts over water — including in the Middle East and Africa.
  • Officials also want to improve global access to sanitation, all while promoting cross-border cooperation over resources.

What they're saying: An NSC spokesperson said no final decisions have been made about releasing a plan.

  • "We do not have a comment on any action plan at this time," a senior administration official told Axios in an emailed statement responding to a request for official comment from the White House.
  • "Global water security continues to play an important role in our national security interests and is a critical component of our ongoing work in the Biden administration."

Keep reading.

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2. Allied mission creep in Ukraine
Illustration of a life preserver being thrown with a camouflage pattern.

Illustration: AΓ―da Amer/Axios

 

The defeat of Russian forces near Kyiv — and the trail of atrocities they left behind — have fueled a Western willingness to provide Ukraine with military aid once thought too provocative and cumbersome for a war Russia was expected to win in weeks, Axios' Zachary Basu reports.

Why it matters: Fears of angering a nuclear-armed Vladimir Putin or undermining peace talks with the Russian president have faded. Most NATO allies are now giving Ukraine whatever it needs to prevail in Act Two: a bloody, protracted battle expected in the eastern Donbas region.

  • The guardrails against triggering World War III have largely fallen — short of providing the air and ground forces President Biden has pledged not to send.
  • In military parlance, it's called "mission creep."

The big picture: The Biden administration was careful early in the conflict to differentiate between what it called "offensive" and "defensive" weapons, fearful of becoming a "co-combatant" under international law.

  • On Sunday, national security advisor Jake Sullivan suggested that framework no longer applied given the "nature of the battle" and "war crimes" committed by Russian forces.
  • "[W]e have gotten to a place in the United States, and across many members of the NATO alliance, where the key question is, 'What does Ukraine need, and how can we provide it to them?'" Sullivan said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
  • The Washington Post reported late today the administration is looking at an additional $750 million in aid that includes Mi-17 helicopters the Ukrainians could easily fly.

Keep reading.

πŸ” Go deeper: President Biden tonight labeled Russia's actions in Ukraine "genocide."

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3. Charted: Stranding the oligarchs
Data: Axios research; Table: Will Chase/Axios

More than a dozen yachts owned by sanctioned Russian oligarchs have been seized — or identified for seizure — since the invasion of Ukraine began, according to public reports reviewed by Zach and Axios' Jacob Knutson.

Why it matters: The fleet of yachts impounded around the world so far is worth more than $2.5 billion. That's, ultimately, a drop in the bucket of sanctioned Russian assets, yet one that's garnered outsized publicity as a symbol of the plundered wealth enjoyed for so long by Putin's cronies.

The big picture: The day after President Biden's State of the Union address last month, the Justice Department announced the formation of a special task force intent on using "every tool to freeze and seize" the assets of sanctioned Russian oligarchs.

  • Task Force KleptoCapture's first trophy was secured last week. Spanish authorities acted at the request of the U.S. to seize a $90 million, 255-foot yacht owned by billionaire Viktor Vekselberg.
  • Authorities have separately seized or moored Russian-owned yachts docked in Italy, France, Croatia, the U.K., the Dominican Republic, Germany, and Antigua and Barbuda.
  • Desperate to find safe harbor, some oligarchs have set for international waters or countries that have not been enforcing Western sanctions.

What to watch: A community of online spectators has coalesced under the Twitter hashtag #YachtWatch.

  • Some accounts like @SanctionsAhoy are providing automated updates that track the movement of select oligarch yachts.
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4. Worthy of your time
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is seen meeting with the U.N. high commissioner for refugees.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Filippo Grandi, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees, in the State Department's Jefferson Room. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

 

⚖️ The South Dakota House of Representatives voted to impeach Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg for a 2020 incident in which Ravnsborg struck and killed a pedestrian with his car while driving home from a fundraiser, Axios' Andrew Solender writes in tonight's Sneak roundup.

πŸ’° Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) disclosed selling tens of thousands of dollars in cryptocurrency stock, stating in a financial disclosure form he "had no information related to this transaction that is unavailable to members of the public."

πŸ—️ Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said during an event in Kentucky that supporting the bipartisan infrastructure law last year was a "good thing to do." He also suggested Donald Trump's motive for opposing it was that he "did not want anything like that to happen during his successor's administration."

πŸ›️ McConnell also weighed in on the Jan. 6 attack. Asked if more should be done to "hold people accountable," he replied, "I think we don't know yet. But, I think everyone who had complicity in that, and can be proven, should get the maximum sentence."

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ The president spoke with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson after his counterpart's in-person visit to Kyiv, according to a White House readout. It said the two leaders "affirmed their commitment to continue providing security and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine in the face of ongoing atrocities by Russia."

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5. Pics du jour
President Biden is seen walking past the presidential seal as he exits Air Force One in Des Moines.

Photos: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

 

President Biden used the internal stairs to exit Air Force One in Des Moines, Iowa.

  • While in the first presidential caucus state, the incumbent toured a bioprocessing plant and announced an emergency waiver to use a cheaper blend of ethanol fuel this summer.
  • He was joined by Rep. Cynthia Axne (D-Iowa), seen in the blue jacket.
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