| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | This morning at 8:30 a.m., the Labor Department will release its newest consumer price index report, and the White House is bracing itself for the political impact of inflation numbers that are widely expected to be the highest yet faced during the Biden administration.
- What to expect: Economists polled by Reuters anticipate that the report will show that, year-over-year, "consumer prices rose 8.4% in March, up from 7.9% in February." That would be the highest rate since December 1981, notes CNBC.
- Why it's likely to be that bad: This is the first CPI report since the large jump in oil and gas prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- Worth noting: "Economists consider two versions of the CPI data: The headline number that includes all prices consumers face, and a so-called core CPI that excludes often volatile food and energy price fluctuations," writes CNBC's Thomas Franck. "The White House says it anticipates a wider-than-normal disparity between the headline and core readings because of an abnormal increase in gas prices that occurred last month."
How the White House is pre-spinning it:
- Blaming Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN: At a White House briefing Monday, press secretary JEN PSAKI said the administration was expecting the CPI "headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin's price hike."
- Noting President JOE BIDEN's moves to reduce gas prices: Aides continue to point to steps the administration has taken to reduce prices, including releasing nearly 1 million barrels of oil a day from the strategic petroleum reserve. (You can also expect them to note that gas prices have begun to drop since taking that action, which came too late to be reflected in the release.) Which leads us to …
BIDEN'S ETHANOL PUSH — In a speech this afternoon in (where else?) Iowa, Biden will announce a forthcoming waiver by EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN that would lift a ban on the summertime sale of E15, which is gasoline mixed with 15% ethanol. (The administration says it's about 10 cents per gallon cheaper than normal unleaded gas.) A senior administration official told reporters on a call Monday night that the move will "increase fuel supplies, offer consumers more choices and flexibility and reduce gas prices." The move is a big win for corn-state famers and lawmakers, who have been pushing for this for some time. But it's also a tangible change that Biden can point at to show he's working to ease pain at the pump. IF AT FIRST YOU DON'T SUCCEED — MICHAEL BARR is the frontrunner to be Biden's pick for the top bank regulator at the Fed after SARAH BLOOM RASKIN's nomination sputtered amid Senate opposition, Victoria Guida scooped. The decision is not final yet, but if Barr is picked, the big question is whether he can land the support of the entire Democratic conference (or even some Republicans) — a feat Bloom Raskin was unable to pull off. — About the frontrunner: "Barr, now dean of the University of Michigan's public policy school, played a major role in the crafting of financial safeguards in the wake of the 2008 Wall Street meltdown and has been a longtime consumer advocate." Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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Learn about our efforts | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK I: DCCC'S RECORD-SETTING HAUL— The DCCC reports that it raised $52.4 million in the first quarter of 2022, including $21.3 million in March alone. The numbers set new record hauls for both the first quarter and March during an on-year. It's also $11 million more than the $40.9 million that House Republicans' campaign arm raised during Q1. The DCCC also says it has $113.2 million cash on hand. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK II: MANAFORT RETURNS — Four years after he was convicted on eight felony counts of bank and tax fraud stemming from an investigation involving his work as a consultant for a pro-Russian Ukrainian political party (and 16 months after he was pardoned by DONALD TRUMP), PAUL MANAFORT is returning to the consulting world. His business plans don't include Washington influence-peddling or the foreign lobbying work that helped get him in legal trouble in the first place. Instead, he'll work on "general business consulting." "When you're as old as I am, you have a lot of breadth and depth and are able to help people with strategic advice to solve their problems or give them comfort," Manafort, 73, told Daniel Lippman. He declined to go into further detail on his new business ventures. But he was eager to talk about other current events. When asked about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Manafort, who made millions working for former pro-Russian Ukrainian President VIKTOR YANUKOVICH, said that he's sickened by Russia's assault. "The U.S. and Europe need to be much more aggressive with providing Ukraine with the lethal weapons that they need to defend themselves," said Manafort, whose past work includes involvement in a Ukraine "peace deal" favorable to the Kremlin's interests (more on that from a 2020 Senate Intelligence Committee report). "I have no doubt in my mind that Ukraine would not lose a battle on the ground if they have the weapons they need, but I also worry that Putin's strategy will be to win through negotiations what he cannot win on the battlefield, and the Europeans and Americans would put pressure on the Ukrainians to concede on things that they should not concede on, like ceding any territory to Russia or committing that they would not be part of NATO in the future." Manafort, who chaired Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, also criticized Biden's handling of inflation, the border and national security, comparing it to Trump's record. "I think Biden's making it easier every day for Trump to run, but I don't think he's made a decision yet," he said. – Hailey Fuchs contributed to this item.
| | | |   | | | BIDEN'S TUESDAY (all times Eastern): — 10 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 11:15 a.m.: Biden will depart the White House for Iowa, arriving in Des Moines at 2:05 p.m. — 3:15 p.m.: Biden will visit POET Bioprocessing in Menlo, where he'll make an announcement about fighting inflation and investing in rural communities at 3:45 p.m. — 6:10 p.m.: Biden will depart Des Moines, arriving back at the White House at 8:40 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS' TUESDAY: — 10:35 a.m.: The VP will depart Washington for Philadelphia. — 5 p.m.: Harris will speak about "worker organizing and empowerment" at the Sheet Metal Workers Local 19 Training Center, along with Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH. — 6 p.m.: Harris will leave Philly to head back to D.C. Psaki will gaggle on Air Force One on the way to Iowa. THE SENATE and THE HOUSE are out.
| | | | DON'T MISS ANYTHING FROM THE 2022 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from the 25th annual Global Conference. This year's event, May 1-4, brings together more than 3,000 of the world's most influential leaders, including 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. "Celebrating the Power of Connection" is this year's theme, setting the stage to connect influencers with the resources to change the world with leading experts and thinkers whose insight and creativity can implement that change. Whether you're attending in person or following along from somewhere else in the world, keep up with this year's conference with POLITICO's special edition "Global Insider" so you don't miss a beat. Subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
|  President Joe Biden hugs Mia Tretta, a Saugus High School shooting survivor, after she spoke during an event about gun violence in the Rose Garden of the White House on Monday, April 11. | Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | WAR IN UKRAINE IT'S OFFICIAL — Russia has been forced to default on its foreign debt, S&P said Monday, per CNN. NEW OVERNIGHT — "Russia Unleashes New Attacks Overnight on Ukraine's Eastern Region," by WSJ's Thomas Grove and Brett Forrest SIREN I — A Ukrainian regiment alleged Monday that Russians had used chemical weapons in Mariupol, prompting the U.S. and other countries to scramble to try to verify the claim. It's unconfirmed as of now, and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY didn't go there yet in his nightly address, per Reuters, instead warning that Russia could use chemical weapons. If verified, a chemical attack would amount to a breach of a serious red line in the war — Biden has said the use of weapons of mass destruction would prompt a NATO response "in kind." More from CNBC SIREN II — Austrian Chancellor KARL NEHAMMER issued a stark warning after meeting with Putin on Monday: "The battle being threatened cannot be underestimated in its violence." He said Ukraine's Donbas region was about to come under a massive attack, and that Putin dismissed Nehammer when he tried to tell him of atrocities in Ukraine. Nehammer said "he came away feeling not only pessimistic about peace prospects but fearing that Mr. Putin intended to drastically intensify the brutality of the war," per NYT's Steven Erlanger and Anton Troianovski. — What will it look like? The Russians could have advantages they've lacked in the war thus far, reports NYT's Cora Engelbrecht: "They'll be operating in familiar territory there, given Russia's 2014 invasion, and with shorter supply lines, analysts say. The Russians also will be able to rely on a vast network of trains to resupply their army — no such rail network existed for them north of Kyiv."
- Izyum appears likely as an early target in the region, with Russian forces already on U.S. intelligence's radar moving toward the town, per WaPo.
- Mariupol seems to be on the verge of falling to Russia, the L.A. Times reports. The U.K. warned that its intelligence showed the city could come under attack from Russian phosphorus munitions, per Insider.
- Meanwhile, Ukraine claimed to have crushed a Russian weapons depot in Novoaidar, per CNN.
NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN — The White House is planning to tap Army Gen. CHRISTOPHER CAVOLI as the next head of U.S. European Command, WSJ's Nancy Youssef and Gordon Lubold scoop . He currently leads U.S. Army Europe. His elevation would be "the biggest change to NATO military leadership since Russia invaded Ukraine." Army Lt. Gen. BRYAN FENTON is also expected to be named the leader of U.S. special operations forces worldwide. CONGRESS ABSENTEE VOTING — Honolulu Civil Beat's Nick Grube has a crazy piece of accountability journalism about Rep. KAI KAHELE (D-Hawaii), who appears to have barely been in Washington this year. Taking advantage of proxy voting, he's cast a total of five in-person votes — all over one three-day span in January — while missing the State of the Union and various D.C. meetings/hearings. Lobbyists say they've heard "crickets" from his office and he's been slow to request money for Hawaii in the appropriations process. Meanwhile, he's apparently still working as a Hawaiian Airlines pilot, which "paid him nearly $120,000 in 2020, according to his most recent House financial disclosure report." But Alex Daugherty and Oriana Pawlyk for Congress Minutes spoke to Kahele's office, which disputed some of the details in the story. "Spokesperson MICHAEL AHN told POLITICO that the congressman flies 'occasional flights to maintain his certification.' 'The congressman is not making $120,000. He is fully in compliance with Ethics,' Ahn said. 'He is an active member of the airline union, the ALPA Pilots Union, and is a certified commercial pilot and active member of Hawaiian Airlines. He does fly occasional flights to maintain his certification.' Ahn said Kahele, who has voted by proxy exclusively since January, flies a 'drastically reduced schedule to maintain his active status.'" It's a strange turn for a politician considered a rising star. He ran for Congress while saying he'd show up more than predecessor TULSI GABBARD had. Kahele's reportedly considering a run for governor. His office refused to comment or provide his schedule to Grube. — FWIW, three lawmakers have cast even more proxy votes than Kahele this year: Reps. ALBIO SIRES (D-N.J.) LUCILLE ROYBAL-ALLARD (D-Calif.) and AL LAWSON (D-Fla.) haven't voted in person once. UP IN SMOKE — After the House passed marijuana decriminalization legislation, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said he'd already contacted "a few Republicans" to get talks started for his chamber. (He'd need 10, plus his whole caucus, to break a filibuster.) But Marijuana Business Daily's Matt Laslo finds that only two GOPers have heard from him: Alaska Sens. LISA MURKOWSKI and DAN SULLIVAN. Prospects for passage look remote: "Unless Schumer can work magic, marijuana reform is — once again — destined to die during this session of Congress."
| | | |   | | | ALL POLITICS SIGN OF THE TIMES — Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN (D-N.H.) is from one border state, but she's at the other border this week, touring Texas and Arizona as she urges the Biden administration to reinstate the controversial Title 42 policy. "The administration really needs to step up here," she said. More from WMUR 2022 WATCH — A quick spin through some news in the big GOP Senate and House primaries:
- Pennsylvania: On Monday, DAVID MCCORMICK's Senate campaign launched a new attack ad hitting MEHMET OZ as "anti-Trump" and highlighting clips from the past where Oz voiced positions that may not sit well with today's GOP primary voters. One problem? Trump, of course, endorsed Oz this weekend, and Bloomberg's Mark Niquette reports that McCormick may have to revamp his strategy — though the campaign claims it won't change course.
- North Carolina: Struggling Senate contender MARK WALKER came out swinging Monday, announcing that he'd been approached to drop out of the race, appear at Trump's Saturday rally in the state and endorse Rep. TED BUDD in return for onstage praise. "I didn't play this game in DC and I won't do it now," Walker vowed on Twitter, going on to quote WINSTON CHURCHILL.
- West Virginia: GOP Reps. DAVID MCKINLEY and ALEX MOONEY got drawn into the same primary because of redistricting, and whoever wins will be breaking the rules: Either McKinley beats a Trump-endorsed primary foe, or Mooney wins while voting (and campaigning hard) against bringing much-needed roads and bridges money to West Virginia. Ally Mutnick has more
- Arizona: Far-right Rep. PAUL GOSAR (R-Ariz.) is battling three primary challengers in "a test of the Republican electorate's appetite for candidates not as far to the right," NYT's Jack Healy reports from Kingman. The other candidates are running as strong conservatives with less appetite for conspiracies about the 2020 election, and hope to take advantage of mainstream voters' exhaustion with extremes.
DESANTIS STEAMROLLS THROUGH REDISTRICTING — Republicans in the Florida state legislature who had been resisting Gov. RON DESANTIS' efforts to impose a more extreme partisan gerrymander on the state's new congressional map are giving in to him, per the Tampa Bay Times' Ana Ceballos . Legislative leaders said they'd end the standoff by deferring to DeSantis and letting him draw his own map, in "a highly unusual move" for the branch of government that usually sets the boundaries. Democrats called it an undemocratic violation of the separation of powers, and emphasized that DeSantis "had earlier offered a map that experts said would have reduced Black and Hispanic voting strength in congressional districts," raising questions about the governor's "commitment to the Fair Districts standards of the Florida Constitution." TRUMP CARDS PENCE ON THE ROAD — There's a major free-speech debate ongoing at the University of Virginia over former VP MIKE PENCE, who will deliver an address today, WaPo's Susan Svrluga reports. Some students are calling for the event to be canceled over Pence's "hateful rhetoric," while others decry such calls as excessively restrictive. "The debate over the appearance is especially complicated at U-Va., where the question of free speech is intricately bound up in both the foundations of the school and its recent past." JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH FOR YOUR RADAR — Trump's top pick to administer Arizona elections in 2024 is more than a garden-variety backer — he played a little-known but notable role in bolstering the former president's push to subvert the 2020 ballot, Betsy Woodruff Swan, Zach Montellaro and Lee Hudson report. "It was the waning weeks of the Trump presidency when Arizona state Rep. MARK FINCHEM made an unusual request of the federal agency that deals with cybersecurity threats. … The emails to the DHS agency, known as CISA, are part of a tranche of new communications that show Trump lawyer RUDY GIULIANI and his allies' attempts to get the federal government to help them reverse election results went even broader than previously known. American Oversight, a watchdog group, obtained the emails through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit and shared them with POLITICO." EASTMAN STILL TRYING TO OVERTURN 2020 ELECTION — As late as last month, JOHN EASTMAN, the far-right attorney who tried to help Trump subvert the 2020 election was in Wisconsin to push state Republicans to decertify the election, ABC's Will Steakin, Katherine Faulders and Laura Romero report . Eastman was part of a group pressuring state Assembly Speaker ROBIN VOS on March 16 to attempt a plan experts say would be impossible: revoking the electors awarded to Biden in 2020 and handing them to Trump instead. The trip came in even as Eastman was defying a subpoena from the Jan. 6 committee. Also at the meeting: DOUGLAS FRANK, Army Reserve Lt. Col. IVAN RAIKLIN and SHAWN SMITH. COMMITTEE LATEST — Rep. ELANIE LURIA (D-Va.) talked to N.Y. Mag's Ben Jacobs about the committee getting ready to go public: "She thought that if the committee laid out what it found, 'it will have a very far reach,' like what happened during the congressional hearings into Watergate." MEDIAWATCH MADDOW SHIFTING TO ONCE A WEEK — RACHEL MADDOW told viewers Monday night that she's downsizing her MSNBC show to just once a week beginning next month, airing Mondays at 9 p.m. "The new schedule has an end-of-an-era feel for MSNBC, since so much of the channel has been built around Maddow for more than a decade," writes CNN's Brian Stelter. On Tuesdays through Fridays, the hour slot will be called "MSNBC Prime" and filled by a rotation of hosts for now. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION THE BEZOS EFFECT — Amazon vowed that it would help preserve affordable housing in the D.C. area with the arrival of its HQ2 in Arlington. But WaPo's Teo Armus finds that "more than 14 months and $750 million into that effort, the help is overwhelmingly flowing to renters with incomes on the high end of a range the company targeted."
| | | | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Willow Biden, the White House's new cat, is having fun with Jill Biden. Nancy Pelosi has tested negative for the coronavirus and is coming out of isolation today. Anderson Cooper, meanwhile, tested positive Monday. So did Rashida Tlaib. John Legend told Andrew Yang to think a bit deeper about his Abraham Lincoln historical analysis. Larry Hogan chugged a Natty Boh at Pickles Pub across from the Orioles game at Camden Yards. One of Liz Mair's cats bit off part of her finger and sent her to the ER. In Nevada, there's a partisan divide in finding voters to register, per Riley Snyder: Republicans going to gas stations, Democrats going to marijuana dispensaries. The Lerners may sell the Nationals. SPOTTED: Barack Obama, Ben Smith, Kara Swisher and Anne Applebaum having lunch at the Obama Foundation in Chicago on Thursday. STAFFING UP — HUD announced a slate of new appointees, including Sofia Greco-Byrne as special adviser and Colin Higgins as policy adviser in the deputy secretary's office, Peter Hunter as senior adviser and acting deputy assistant secretary for congressional relations, Ruth Jones Nichols as senior adviser for public engagement, Corey Minor Smith as senior counsel, Alexis Pelosi as senior adviser in the Office of Community Planning and Development, Felecia Rotellini as senior adviser at the Government National Mortgage Association, Vianne Singh as special assistant and lead comms strategist in the CIO's office, and Sam Valverde as EVP and COO at the Government National Mortgage Association. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) and Jesús "Chuy" García (D-Ill.) … Fred Ryan … Mindy Myers ... Brad Elkins ... CBS' Rita Braver ... Katherine Rodriguez of DCI Group ... Gretchen Andersen … former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) ... Sindy Benavides ... Anthony Bellmon … Peter Scher of JPMorgan Chase … Corry Robb ... Christian Datoc … John Athon of Safespill Systems (39) … Laly Rivera Perez … Nick Iacovella … National Student Legal Defense Network's Aaron Ament … Audra McGeorge … Chris Gorud ... Reed Galen … Vice's Eric Ortega … Shalla Ross … WaPo's Carrie Camillo … Jack Pandol Jr. … AARP's Timothy Gearan … CNN's Greg Clary … Julie Asher … Woody Johnson … Eric Leckey Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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