🤫 GOP ad rage

Plus: AIPAC's primary politics | Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By AHCA/NCAL   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team · Apr 27, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. The nation bade farewell to its first female secretary of State. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,182 words ... 4.5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: GOP ad rage Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   Republican incumbents and candidates facing competitive primaries are abandoning their pasts and turning to scorched-earth, socially focused campaigns to head off conservative rivals, Axios' Andrew Solender and Alayna Treene report. Why it matters: The trend underscores how former President Trump primed his base to demand GOP lawmakers mirror his aggressive tactics — and how his core voters are angrier than ever with him out of office. A prime example is Rep. Van Taylor (R-Texas), who ultimately ended his re-election bid in March after admitting to an extramarital affair. In recent cycles, Taylor was in a swing district and faced well-funded Democratic foes. He ran ads touting himself as "Mr. Bipartisan" and highlighting his legislative record — including a bill cracking down on domestic violence. But after redistricting this year, with a safe GOP district and the only serious threat to his right, he ran an ad called "Battlefield." It said "The Swamp" was going after him for "standing up to the radical left" and "fighting the woke mob and vaccine mandates." The big picture: Taylor's kind of Trump-channeling has been replicated across the country by Republican incumbents facing Trump-inspired primary challenges. Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), a member of the moderate Republican Governance Group, got drawn into a district with Trump-endorsed Rep. Mary Miller (R-Ill.). He said later in a statement he's a "conservative who gets things done." Davis also went further: Miller, he said, is "all talk, no action." He blasted her for voting with the "far-left Squad" on a defense appropriations bill and backing a "Never Trump ticket" for Illinois governor. Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), a low-key senator facing a right-wing opponent in former NFL player Jake Bequette, is running ads featuring Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). The prominent conservative firebrand dubs Boozman "our conservative fighter." Keep reading.     2. Pro-Israel groups wade into Dem primary fights Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   A new political group affiliated with the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is spending significant sums to boost more moderate Democrats in four closely watched House primaries, records reviewed by Axios' Lachlan Markay and Alexi McCammond show. Why it matters: New TV ad buys from the group, dubbed the United Democracy Project, are upping the stakes in proxy fights between the Democrats' moderate and progressive factions. Behind the scenes is a fight over U.S.-Israel policy. State of play: The United Democracy Project has reported spending more than $1.4 million on ads in four House races in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Ohio. It's joining a handful of other pro-Israel groups also training their sights on these intra-party battles. Most notably is J Street, a political organization fighting for pro-Israel policies and candidates — but with a liberal viewpoint. Their PAC raised $7 million for congressional candidates in the 2020 cycle. The political arms of Democratic Majority for Israel and the Jewish Democratic Council of America have also been active in House primaries this year. The progressive-moderate split on Israel mirrors — and almost serves as a proxy for — larger ideological divisions in the Democratic Party being litigated in these primary contests. The backdrop: So far, J Street is involved in House primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Texas, Maryland and Michigan. AIPAC has a presence in all of those races too, through either UDP or donations from a traditional political action committee formed late last year. Keep reading.     3. By the numbers: Spiraling POTUS Data: Gallup; Table: Simran Parwani/Axios President Biden's approval rating during the fifth quarter of his term is his lowest yet, according to new Gallup data reviewed by Axios' Sarah Mucha. Why it matters: The low approval rating — 41.3% — doesn't bode well for Democrats as they head into the midterm season. Only President Trump had a lower approval rating at this stage in his presidency, when compared with all U.S. presidents elected to their first term in office dating back to President Eisenhower. Trump was at 39.1%. Between the lines: A president's approval rating tends to drop during the second year. That comes long after the initial honeymoon period is over and as voters begin to hold the administration accountable for fulfilling its campaign promises. The current president is entering his second year following a chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in September 2021, and as the war in Ukraine intensifies. On the home front, the administration is still battling coronavirus remnants, like mask mandates, inflation and high gas prices. Zoom out: In addition to Trump, Presidents Carter, Reagan and Obama all had approval ratings averaging less than majority — though they still had higher ratings than Biden. Go deeper: A poll out this week from the Harvard Institute of Politics showed 41% of young Americans approve of Biden's job performance. That's down from 46% in fall 2021. Around this time last year, the president enjoyed a 59% approval rating from young Americans.     A message from AHCA/NCAL Seniors' access to care is at risk     More than 5 million seniors and individuals with disabilities benefit from long-term care every year. But COVID-19 caused a staffing and economic crisis that is forcing nursing home closures nationwide, limiting seniors' access to care. We must protect long-term care — before it's too late.     4. Worthy of your time Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) displays a photo from the U.S.-Mexico border as she questions Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Capitol Hill. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images   🗺️ The New York Court of Appeals rejected congressional maps drawn up by Democrats in the state Legislature with an eye to minimizing GOP seats. It also ordered a court-appointed special master to create temporary maps and signaled this year's primary elections, set for June, will have to be postponed until August, Axios' Andrew Solender reports in tonight's Sneak roundup. 🇶🇦 Richard Olson, a former U.S. ambassador to Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates, plans to plead guilty to charges brought by the Justice Department over his alleged role in an undisclosed lobbying campaign on behalf of Qatar, Lachlan also scooped earlier today. 💵 Federal Election Commission filings show Republican candidates for Congress have spent a collective $1.28 million at Trump's properties this cycle, including Trump-endorsed Senate candidates Kelly Tshibaka of Alaska and Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.), according to the Independent. 💰 House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said on a press call that combining COVID-19 and Ukraine aid packages into one bill is "an option" but noted that the two parties are "not united" on the COVID aid. He added, "If we find we don't have agreement [on COVID aid], we want to get the Ukrainian assistance ASAP." 🐘 Former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) told The Atlantic that Republicans should not nominate former President Trump in 2024 because he is a "crybaby sore loser who lost the popular vote twice" and is "vulnerable to having the stench of disaster on him." 🍁 A marijuana decriminalization bill that passed the House earlier this month is stalled in the Senate due in large part to concerns from moderate Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), on top of opposition from Republicans, HuffPost reported.     5. Pics du jour Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images   President Biden led the mourners at the funeral for Madeleine Albright, a Czech immigrant who became secretary of State. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (above) was among the speakers. Hillary Rodham Clinton also spoke about her predecessor. Former Secretary John Kerry joined current Secretary Antony Blinken in the crowd. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images During his eulogy, Biden said of Albright, "She could go toe-to-toe with the toughest dictators, then turn around and, literally, teach a fellow ambassador how to do the Macarena on the floor of the UN Security Council." Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images At the funeral's conclusion, badge-wearing leaders and former members of Albright's Diplomatic Security Service protective detail gave her one final escort — out of Washington National Cathedral.     A message from AHCA/NCAL It's past time to support our frontline heroes     Caregivers in long-term care have gone above and beyond the call of duty during the pandemic. We need to support these caregivers to ensure access to care for seniors and their families. It's time to invest in the frontline heroes who protect America's seniors. Learn more.   🐫 Thanks for reading tonight. We endured Hump Day! Please tell your family, friends and colleagues they can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. Like this email style and format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: