Thursday: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will present his annual report. Friday: The EU and China will hold a summit on Friday, with the main topics being Ukraine's humanitarian crisis, climate change and biodiversity and trade. The EU will call for a resumption of an EU-China human rights dialogue. UKRAINE BATTLEFRONTS Follow POLITICO's Ukraine live blog here. DON'T BUY DEESCALATION TALK, WHITE HOUSE SAYS: The White House on Tuesday reacted with deep skepticism to Russia's promise to reduce violence in Ukraine as a means of paving the way for possible peace talks, and they're not the only ones who think the Kremlin was simply redirecting, not ending, its flailing invasion. Where have you heard this before? Humanitarian corridors that get bombed or never happen at all. Are American troops training Ukrainian troops in Poland? Yes, but not in the classic training sense. Alex Ward explains here. BEEFING UP SANCTIONS: Presidents Joe Biden and France's Emmanuel Macron, and Prime Ministers Boris Johnson of the U.K. and Italy's Mario Draghi spoke Tuesday. In a joint statement, the leaders said they "affirmed their determination to continue raising costs on Russia for its brutal attacks in Ukraine, as well as to continue supplying Ukraine with security assistance." So what could that look like? The G-7 countries say they'll refuse a Russian demand to buy Russian natural gas in rubles. Moscow could retaliate by turning off the taps. Beyond that, the EU and U.K. appear at odds over how to deepen sanctions. REALITY CHECK — HOW STRONG ARE RUSSIAN SANCTIONS, REALLY? Edward Fishman , a former State Department Russia and Europe Sanctions Lead, now with the Center for a New American Security and Columbia University, lays out the evidence that there's much more to do to be truly effective. Fishman told Global Insider "only one of Russia's five largest banks — VTB — is blocked and cut off from SWIFT. There's no good reason why the U.S. and EU shouldn't expand sanctions to all major Russian banks, including Sberbank (Russia's largest bank) and Gazprombank (which collects much of Russia's energy proceeds)." The U.K. unilaterally sanctioned Gazprombank last week. "The U.S. and Europe could impose blocking sanctions on non-financial state-owned enterprises, including in the energy, defense, shipping, mining, and minerals sectors." What would a secondary sanctions campaign to prevent sales of Russian oil look like? Fishman says such a campaign "would only make sense if the EU were on board, as Europe is the largest buyer of Russian oil. The first step would be for the EU to commit to phased reductions in its own purchases of Russian oil. Next, the U.S. and EU would threaten secondary sanctions against anyone around the world who buys Russian oil. They should provide waivers for countries that significantly reduce their purchases over a three- to six-month period, enabling major buyers like China to gradually wean off Russian oil. The final step is to prohibit payments for Russian oil from being repatriated to Russia" until Russia has ended the war and "satisfactorily compensated Ukraine for the damage it has wrought." Fishman pointed out that the U.S. successfully used such a campaign to reduce Iran's oil sales from 2.5 million barrels per day to under 500,000 barrels per day. Hydrogen Bridge: Deal for 5 million tonnes of Australian green hydrogen to be delivered to Germany and the Netherlands signed, as Europe looks to replace Russian gas. But there's a catch. Poland to ban Russian coal imports: That's a big deal for a country deeply attached to coal. GERMANY KNEW ABOUT RUSSIAN ENERGY RISKS — AND DID NOTHING : Berlin understood the dangers of increasing energy dependence on Russia after its 2014 Crimea annexation — and is now paying the price for ignoring the problem, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Tuesday in a speech. Verbatim: "We Europeans have known since 2014 at the latest … that we must become completely independent of Russian fossil fuel imports," Baerbock said. "However, we did not tackle this, and this is now taking its revenge in the most brutal way." EU COUNTRIES EXPEL RUSSIANS: Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland and the Czech Republic have expelled dozens of Russians, directly accusing some of spying. Belgium gave 21 Russian officials two weeks to leave the country, the Netherlands expelled 17, Ireland told four officials to leave, while the Czech Republic has requested one Russian official to leave within 72 hours. Retaliatory measures by Moscow are expected. PERSPECTIVES THE CASE FOR WHY GERMANY SHOULD FEEL MORE RESPONSIBILITY for Ukraine's security and freedom than any other country, by Janis Kluge. INSIDE UKRAINE'S PSYOPS ON RUSSIAN AND BELARUSIAN SOLDIERS. Amazing reporting from Michael Weiss for New Lines Magazine. "WhatsApp messages and audio recordings show a concerted effort by telecom specialists to dissuade the invaders with horror stories of what they'll face." US NAVY CONGRESSIONAL REALITY CHECK: Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), a Navy veteran, told the Navy its budget requests "suck" , won't allow the U.S. defend its interests against China, and told them to go develop a real strategy she and her colleagues could take seriously. KREMLIN PARANOIA: Former Italian ambassador to NATO Stefano Stefanini emails Global Insider that Biden's wish that Putin leave office is producing paranoia in the Kremlin. "In Italy the Russian Ambassador [ Sergey Razov] has sued La Stampa because of an article, by a veteran passionate war correspondent, that was raising the question "What if killing the tyrant is the only way out". The article was actually coming to the conclusion that it can be counterproductive, but to no avail. Off to court went Ambassador Rozov." NEW PODCAST EPISODE — HOW TO STARE DOWN BEIJING
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