| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | He's back. All signs point to a typical midterm election this year in which the president's party suffers double-digit losses in the House. The GOP has the big structural advantages on its side: a Democratic president with low approval ratings, a sour public mood driven by inflation concerns and an edge in polling on issues like crime, education and immigration that are proving important to voters in the crucial swing suburbs where the midterms will be decided. One of the few ways Republicans could potentially blow this electoral equivalent of a layup is if former President DONALD TRUMP suddenly returns to center court. Trump is not toxic for his party everywhere. Republicans did better than expected in House races in 2020 because of the high MAGA turnout Trump generated. But he's deadly for the GOP in the decisive suburbs at the heart of 2022 politics. Recall how Virginia's GLENN YOUNGKIN treated Trump like Voldemort, concerned that even uttering his name would repel potential supporters in NoVa. This week, despite a war in Europe, a new presidential budget at home and a Supreme Court nominee battle, Trump emerged as the dominant story, mostly because of the geyser of news related to the Jan. 6 committee in recent days: — VIRGINIA THOMAS, wife of Justice CLARENCE THOMAS, pressed Trump's White House chief of staff to execute the JOHN EASTMAN plan. — JARED KUSHNER will not be protected by executive privilege when he is expected to voluntarily appear before the panel Thursday. — DAN SCAVINO and PETER NAVARRO, two former Trump White House advisers, have been recommended for criminal "contempt of Congress" citations. — The White House records of Trump's phone calls from Jan. 6 have a seven-hour gap that raises the possibility Trump was using a "burner phone," per Bob Woodward and Bob Costa's latest. — Trump unendorsed Rep. MO BROOKS (R-Ala.), who is running for a Senate seat now hints that he may cooperate with the Jan. 6 committee and says he was repeatedly (and fairly recently) pressed by Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential results. ( Nicholas Wu and Kyle Cheney note that the Brooks news could change the committee's previous decision not to try to compel Republican lawmakers to testify.) Trump has eagerly jumped into the Jan. 6 news cycle. He was slinging the usual conspiracy theories at a rally in Georgia on Saturday. He says he's never heard of a burner phone. ( Not true, says JOHN BOLTON.) He called on Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN to release dirt on the Bidens. (Yes, that's a real and true sentence and it is as shocking as you think, but we will spare you the adjectives and outrage. Full details here.) Oh, Trump also said he got a hole-in-one recently. There is a debate among Democrats about whether there is any strategic value in making Trump the center of the election. The moderate Dems barely clinging to their seats insist they have no interest in talking about him. The make-2022-about-Trump faction insists that the only way to recreate the Dem surges of 2018 and 2020 is to recreate the Trump-saturated political environment of those years when right-leaning suburbanites flocked to the Dems. But that debate may be moot. This week's convergence of 2020 election subversion news and wild Trump comments is a harbinger of things to come. The Jan. 6 committee's major reports, when released this year, will force every candidate to discuss Trump and 2020. And as the midterms approach, Trump, who has big bets placed on dozens of candidates up and down ballots across America, will be a central player in campaigns everywhere, whether either party likes it or not. Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza .
| | | | A message from The American Beverage Association: At America's beverage companies our plastic bottles are made to be remade. We're carefully designing them to be 100% recyclable — so every bottle can become a new one. That means less plastic waste in our environment. Please help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: SENATE GOP TO CRANK UP THE HEAT ON BIDEN BORDER CROSSINGS — Senate Republicans starting today are planning to make the nation's border situation a major focus of their talking points heading into the midterms. This morning, we have copies of two memos ( here and here ) being circulated by the Senate Republican Conference to all GOP offices in the upper chamber. They argue that "Biden's border crisis is the worst in American history," and highlight record-breaking border crossing statistics. And they warn of a greater surge to come should Biden end Title 42, the Trump-era immigration policy of turning away migrants at the border during the pandemic. For context: Biden is under major pressure from his party as well as immigration advocates, as Krista Mahr reported earlier this week, to discontinue Title 42. Some moderate Democrats on the border, including Arizonans KYRSTEN SINEMA and MARK KELLYhave written to the administration warning them to do no such thing without a proper plan in place to deal with any influx in asylum seekers that could impact border towns. "To date, we have not yet seen evidence that (the Department of Homeland Security) has developed and implemented a sufficient plan to maintain a humane and orderly process in the event of an end to Title 42," Sinema and Kelly wrote a few days ago. But advocates argue that the rule is not only outdated with the pandemic easing up, but that it's also inconsistent with international humanitarian law allowing people to claim asylum. And the debate is putting Biden in a real pickle right now — one the GOP intends to capitalize on. At noon today, we're told, Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) is going to lead a group of Republicans, including Sens. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) and ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio) to discuss what they view as Biden's weakness on this issue, as well as Title 42 and what they'll argue is a dearth of funding for border issues at a critical time. SPEAKING OF … DHS PREPARING FOR RECORD BORDER SURGE — NYT's Eileen Sullivan reports that "crossings at the southwest border have been peaking again in recent weeks, and homeland security officials are bracing for those numbers to rise much higher if the Biden administration decides to lift a public health order that has limited immigration during the pandemic." — How high could numbers go?: "Homeland security officials Tuesday described contingency plans for managing as many as 18,000 encounters a day at the border, regardless of the cause."
| | | | A message from The American Beverage Association:   America's beverage companies are working together to reduce our industry's plastic footprint by investing in efforts to get our plastic bottles back. Our goal is for every bottle to become a new one, so they don't end up in our oceans, rivers and landfills. EveryBottleback.org | | | PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY: — 10:15 a.m.: Biden will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 12:30 p.m.: Biden will have lunch with VP KAMALA HARRIS. — 1:30 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks about the pandemic. HARRIS' WEDNESDAY (the rest of her schedule): — 11 a.m.: The VP will speak at Howard University about "building a more inclusive and equitable economy by assisting community lenders to ensure that small business owners in all communities have the resources needed," along with Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO and SBA Administrator ISABELLA GUZMAN. — 3:50 p.m.: Harris will hold a bilateral meeting with Jamaican PM ANDREW HOLNESS. Comms director KATE BEDINGFIELD will brief at 2:30 p.m. THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. USTR KATHERINE TAI will testify before the Ways and Means Committee at 10 a.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 1 p.m. to take up high-profile bills decriminalizing cannabis and capping insulin costs. CDC Director ROCHELLE WALENSKY and Surgeon General VIVEK MURTHY will be among those testifying before an Oversight subcommittee at 2 p.m. THE SENATE is in. OMB Director SHALANDA YOUNG will testify before the Budget Committee at 11 a.m. Journalist MARIA RESSA will be among those testifying before a Foreign Relations subcommittee at 2 p.m.
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President Joe Biden pays his respects to the late Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) as Young lies in state in Statuary Hall at the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, March 29. | Greg Nash - Pool/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | BREAKING THIS MORNING — Three stories worth diving into over your coffee: 1. A Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) spot: "GOP's Senate campaign chief won't back down from party fight," by AP's Steve Peoples and Brendan Farrington, who write Scott "likes to think of himself as Gen. ULYSSES S. GRANT during the Civil War." 2. The latest battleline in SCOTUS fights: Our Marianne LeVine writes about how GOP demands to see KETANJI BROWN JACKSON's pre-sentencing documents is the new frontier in battles over high court nominations. 3. And Russia breaking another promise: "New Attacks Hit Northern Ukraine, Where Russia Had Vowed to Ease Its Assault," per the NYT. ALL POLITICS NRCC BUYING (AND PROMOTING) JORDAN'S BOOK — A Democratic source recently complained to us about what some see as swampy self-promotion over at the NRCC: According to recent FEC filings, the GOP committee has spent more than $75,000 on bulk book sales, stocking up on Rep. JIM JORDAN's (R-Ohio) "Do What You Said You Would Do," and giving away copies as "donor mementos." "We set aside a signed copy of Jim Jordan's new book just for YOU!" reads one NRCC Facebook ad soliciting donations. "Order now & help retake our House majority!" This sort of setup isn't unprecedented for the GOP campaign arm. An NRCC spokesman defended the practice, saying that people are compelled to contribute more money when they receive a gift for their donations. Last cycle, they said, the committee "raised nearly $2 million dollars giving DAN CRENSHAW's book as a memento to grassroots donors." (An added bonus? Crenshaw's book, "Fortitude," landed on the NYT bestseller list for more than a month.) This year, the spox added, the NRCC expects to raise $300,000 while promoting Jordan's book. Jordan didn't reply to a request for comment about whether he's making money on the sales. Even as the tactic isn't new, from where we sit, it's surprising for another reason: Once upon a time, a half-decade ago, Jordan and the NRCC were at war over strategy and candidates — not to mention his group, the Freedom Caucus' habit of not paying NRCC dues. To see the party's official campaign apparatus promoting Jordan's book is still a shock to those of us who covered that era. Nowadays, we're told, Jordan pays his NRCC dues — and, as you can see, gets a bit of a boost from the committee in return. GOP'S NEW TREND: DITCHING DEBATES — "Republican candidates this year are increasingly ducking out of primary debates or demanding greater control over the terms than ever before, raising questions about the future of an institution that has long been a central part of American campaigns," reports David Siders. — Three big factors behind it: (1) "The media — a traditional arbiter of many debates — is so reviled by Republican primary voters that campaigns now recognize there may be more to gain from criticizing the process than participating." (2) "There's also been a surge in self-funding and celebrity candidates in 2022, whose inexperience at debating and fears of campaign-ending missteps may be leading them to dodge debates altogether." (3) "Then there's the shadow of Trump, whose complaints that debates are rigged is now the party line, with the RNC throwing the prospect of presidential debates in two years into question."
| | | | A message from The American Beverage Association:   Our plastic bottles are made to be remade. Help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org | | | WAR IN UKRAINE A SIGN OF HOPE? — "The first signs of significant progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine emerged on Tuesday, but there was no hint of an imminent end to the suffering…" NYT's Anton Troianovski writes. "After three hours of talks in Istanbul, Ukrainian officials said their country was ready to declare itself permanently neutral — forsaking the prospect of joining NATO, a key Russian demand — and discuss Russian territorial claims in exchange for 'security guarantees' from a group of other nations." — The White House has remained skeptical of any promises issued by Russia, specifically on talks of de-escalation of the invasion. Jonathan Lemire and Alexander Ward write that "administration officials cautioned that while they had seen a recent reduction in Russian attacks around Kyiv and Chernihiv, violence had continued unabated and even grown elsewhere, particularly in southern and eastern Ukraine. Moreover, the officials said that the pause near Kyiv may be a ruse to resupply troops and that the violence could ramp up at any time." Further reading: "Ukraine to negotiators: Don't eat or drink at Russia talks amid poison concern," WaPo … "Sanctioned Oligarch's Presence Adds Intrigue to Ukraine-Russia Talks," NYT … "Russia Built Parallel Payments System That Escaped Western Sanctions," WSJ … "Top US general in Europe says there 'could be' an intelligence gap in US that caused US to overestimate Russia's capabilities," CNN ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE … Just north of Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, "Ukrainian statements that they are pushing Russian forces back seem relatively true. Although the area is still dangerous, with shelling in the distance, Ukrainian soldiers said they are in more control here just north of Kyiv than they were even a few days ago. Still, in other areas close to the capital, intense shelling continued Tuesday, proving that the fight is far from over and casting doubt on claims of significant progress," WaPo's Siobhán O'Grady recaps. — "In villages near Kyiv, how Ukraine has kept Russia's army at bay," Reuters … "Day 34: Shattered lives in war-torn Ukraine," AP CONGRESS HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS SOURS ON CAWTHORN — House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY isn't the only GOP leader frustrated with Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN over his headline-grabbing claim that fellow lawmakers have invited him to participate in orgies and used cocaine in front of him. Olivia Beavers reports that House Freedom Caucus Chair SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) intends to speak with the North Carolina Republican about the remark. "When asked whether they would reconsider Cawthorn's membership in the group if he didn't make clear whom he has evidence of taking part in group sex and drug use, Perry wouldn't say either way: 'We will discuss that when we get to it,' he replied." —Pretty much captures the mood: "One Freedom Caucus member, also addressing Cawthorn on condition of anonymity, described responses from 'across the political spectrum … saying "what the hell?"'" ON THE BAYOU — There's no Senate Republican quite like BILL CASSIDY: He voted to convict Trump of inciting an insurrection after getting reelected by 40 points, while helping cut big deals on Covid relief and infrastructure. Now, he's eyeing the governor's office in Baton Rouge, Burgess Everett reports . "'They've seen what I've done on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, see what I did on Covid relief in December' 2020, Cassidy said on Tuesday. 'They obviously see I'm trying to do good things for the state. And they like it.' Cassidy said he'll decide by the end of the year on whether to run. But it's a natural fit for him, since the governor's race in 2023 offers a low-risk campaign that wouldn't cost him or his party his Senate seat." THE WHITE HOUSE BIDEN SIGNS ANTI-LYNCHING BILL — "President Biden on Tuesday signed into law the Emmett Till Antilynching Act to make lynching a federal hate crime, in a historic first that comes after more than a century of failed efforts against racial violence," write WaPo's Amy Wang and Felicia Sonmez. GETTING CLOSER AND CLOSER … Covid-19 has crept closer and closer to the president, "disrupting White House operations just as the country and the administration have been relaxing strict safeguards against Covid-19," writes WaPo's Annie Linskey. Recent positive tests from second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF, press secretary JEN PSAKI and principal deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE, among others, highlight "the continued threat posed by the virus, complicating White House efforts to signal that the country has turned the corner on the pandemic." BUT, BUT, BUT — "Biden will get additional Covid booster if his doctor recommends it, White House says," CNN THE PANDEMIC PUSHING BACK ON THE MASK MANDATE — "A group of 21 states filed a lawsuit Tuesday that seeks to stop the Biden administration from requiring travelers in the U.S. to wear masks on airplanes, trains, taxis, buses and other forms of public transit," WSJ's Jacob Gershman reports.
| | | | DON'T MISS POLITICO'S INAUGURAL HEALTH CARE SUMMIT ON 3/31: Join POLITICO for a discussion with health care providers, policymakers, federal regulators, patient representatives, and industry leaders to better understand the latest policy and industry solutions in place as we enter year three of the pandemic. Panelists will discuss the latest proposals to overcome long-standing health care challenges in the U.S., such as expanding access to care, affordability, and prescription drug prices. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Donald Trump said he is not interested in becoming speaker of the House. (Sorry, Matt Gaetz!) Kasie Hunt has made a full recovery from brain surgery as her new CNN+ show launches, she tells People: "It turned out that the surgery and recovery was the end of a journey, not the beginning of something that was a lot more difficult." Kate Bedingfield made her first ever appearance at the White House briefing room lectern Tuesday — potentially something of a dress rehearsal to succeed Jen Psaki as press secretary. David Perdue said he "misunderstood" Trump rallygoers over the weekend when he smiled and gave a thumbs up as they chanted "lock him up" about Brian Kemp. (He says he thought they were chanting "lock them up" while referring to Georgia election officials.) George and Laura Bush met with Dreamers to talk immigration in Dallas. Ivanka Trump helped deliver meals to a Louisiana community hit hard by a tornado. SPOTTED at Peter Velz's birthday party at Hank's Oyster Bar: Rufus Gifford, Liz Allen, Sabrina Singh, Opal Vadhan, Hannah Hankins, Jasmine Wright, Remi Yamamato, Tyler Pager, Justin Sink, Reggie Greer, Asel Roberts, Ike Irby, Mike Memoli, Michael Gwin, Megan Apper, Alex Wagner, Tim Perry and Jamal Brown. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Paul Manafort will be the featured guest at a "Truth & Freedom Dinner" hosted by the conservative nonprofit Patriots for Florida Club in Naples on April 8. The invitation from the pro-Ron DeSantis/Donald Trump group promises a three-course dinner and a future autographed copy of his forthcoming book, "Political Prisoner" with admission. (h/t Daniel Lippman) MEDIA MOVES — The New Yorker is adding Molly Fischer and Rivka Galchen as staff writers. TRANSITIONS — Sen. Bob Menendez's (D-N.J.) office has added Hartley Voss as senior speechwriter and Guillermo Perez as speechwriter. Voss previously was at West Wing Writers and has written for several Hollywood shows. Perez previously was a legislative correspondent for Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-N.J.). … Nick Lisowski is now a director of federal advocacy at PhRMA. He previously was health policy adviser to Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), and is a Bruce Westerman alum. … … James Hong is now VP and chief of staff at the tech platform Urban Legend. He previously was a VP and chief of staff for SKDK's digital practice. … Danny Smith is joining Rep. Brian Babin's (R-Texas) office as a legislative assistant. He previously was legislative assistant for Rep. Van Taylor (R-Texas), and is a Bill Flores alum. WEEKEND WEDDING — Mitch Erdel, legislative assistant to Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), and Alyssa Hinman, minority member services director for the House Appropriations Committee, got married at Mizzou this weekend in his home state. They originally met working on the Hill. Pic … SPOTTED: Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Abigail Blunt, Saat Alety, Regi Simpson, Katherine Foster, Jimmy Walsh, Kelsey Baron, Lucas and Kirsten West,Jennifer Humphries, Sam Helton and Tucker Nelson. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) … Kevin Dowling of Venn Strategies … Tracey Lintott … WaPo's John Hudson … Mark Pfeifle … Joe Kildea of the Club for Growth … Suzy Khimm … Payne Griffin … Randee (Ulsh) Gilmore … Morning Consult's Michael Ramlet … Bradleigh Chance … NYT's Alex Kingsbury … Scott Rasmussen … Casey Higgins of Akin Gump … CBS' Richard Escobedo … Jason Greenblatt … Drew Maloney of the American Investment Council … Brunswick Group's Susan Lagana … Jeremy Kenney of Campaign Solutions … Jamiyl Peters … AT&T's Marc Gonzales … Peter La Fountain … Visa's Jeremy Sturchio … Mark Strand … David Greer of the Council of Large Public Housing Authorities … HuffPost's Jessica Schulberg … former Sens. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) (6-0) and Bob Smith (R-N.H.) … former Reps. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.) and Janice Hahn (D-Calif.) (7-0) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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