Tuesday, February 8, 2022

More Mikaela

It's the manmade snow.

Slalom racing used to be completely different, then again, so were the Olympics. The Olympics used to be held in winter burgs with nearby mountains with natural snow. They even used to be held in mountain towns, like St. Moritz, or Squaw Valley, even Lake Placid. Now the winter Olympics are held in the metropolis, to maximize dollars. The venues are almost secondary. It all comes down to money. And the country with the most money gets the games, and if there's any doubt, any difference, any question, that's where corruption comes in. The Olympics are no better than the Golden Globes. Pierce the surface of the telecast and you will not like what you see.

So, nobody wants the winter games anymore. Because they're too damn expensive. So that's how we end up with the games in Beijing, Xi believes the money spent is worth it, showing the advancement of China. As for Sochi... Since Putin is a kleptocrat, he gave the contracts to his buddies and even made money personally from the spend. And when the games were over he invaded Ukraine. As for the Sochi games... Sochi is a seaside resort. There are mountains, but the sun and temperature are intense, and what you want in ski racing is consistency, so the snow warmed up and later racers were penalized in Sochi, because the wetter snow is slower, and in Beijing...

There's essentially no snow at all. Depending upon reports, where the races are held they get somewhere between two and eight inches a year, so you've got to install the guns and make the snow yourself.

Now slalom used to be a game of going around the poles, i.e. gates. But with the advent of shaped-skis and breakaway gates, you now go through the gates as opposed to around them.

Yes, in the late nineties the skis changed. And it was the racers who cottoned to the new shaped skis last. But those who were there first, like Bode Miller and Deborah Compagnoni, ate up the field and then everybody switched... To much shorter skis that you only had to lay on edge and they carved.

As for the breakaway gates... At first the gates were made out of bamboo. Then they went to plastic, and when you hit them, it hurt. But when skiers hit traditional gates they frequently popped out of the snow. And then the race had to be stopped while the pole was replaced, and this happened over and over again. So someone came up with the idea of breakaway gates. They're still made of plastic, but there is a hinge at snow level, so when you hit the pole it bends, maybe even all the way down to the snow surface, and then pops back up, ready for the next racer

So the game changed. Now you donned your short shaped skis, which carved on a dime, put on your armor and then went as straight as you could, right into the gates.

As for the surface itself...

In the old days there used to be ruts. The initial skiers down the course had an advantage, the surface was smooth, yet it quickly got torn up. But, if they could make the course firm, it would be the same for everybody, much more fair. And you have to make it a bit fair for those at the bottom, otherwise they can never get good results and move up the ladder. And the solution to the rut problem was turning the surface into ice.

Which every recreational skier hates!

But the racers love it. Because it's consistent.

And to ensure there is ice, before the race they inject water into the course the night before, so it will freeze into ice, I kid you not.

Now making snow is an art. And don't confuse the manmade snow in Beijing with that on your local hill. The local hill always makes snow with a high water content, to make a firm base. They want a layer to cover the ground and stay there. And for decades, manmade snow was known for its iciness. But then with new equipment and greater insight they were able to make snow closer to the real thing.

So what happened in Beijing is they laid down high water content snow, for a base, but the top surface...they tried to replicate something closer to powder. So what you end up with is a firm surface with some kickaround dust that's akin to sand on top of it.

And underneath this dust is not conventional ice. It's rock hard, but it doesn't resemble what comes out of your freezer whatsoever. It's like highly compressed sand. It's firm, but the surface is different from natural snow.

So let's say you're a world class skier, a champion, and you want to win in the Olympics. You study the course, but if you're doing it right, you're skiing on feel. The more you inject your mind into the equation, the worse, the slower you ski.

Now a great slalom skier can set an edge and actually accelerate out of a turn. And a great World Cup slalom skier believes the surface surrounding the gate will be ice. That's right, like you have in your drink. You may not be able to ski on it, but their boards are tuned to an incredible sharpness at a higher angle than recreational skis and the athletes are in unbelievable shape, and so when you set your edge... It's essentially the same the entire winter. But in Beijing...

The greats have been faltering. Not only Shiffrin, but her boyfriend Kilde and her direct competitor Vlhova.

So Shiffrin pushes out of the gate, she gets into her groove, and sets her edge and... She feels this layer of sand on top. And underneath this is the brick hard compressed snow that is much harder to get an edge in than ice. So, you don't get instant grip, so you set your edge harder, and you bungle, what happens is not what you expected, your edge gets caught, or your ski slides and...you're out of the course.

But it gets even worse. Because the temperatures at the courses have been so damn low, hovering near zero, all the moisture that does exist in the snow has been wiped out, pulled out of the snow and is now gone. Try skiing on a bitter cold day, oftentimes your skis will barely move, because all the moisture has been sucked out of the snow, and the ski needs to heat up the snow underneath it to create a wet layer to slide ahead.

So, Mikaela Shiffrin feels the pressure, she's got to win. And she's got confidence in herself, she can ski these courses in her sleep, and she never skis out. But she's running on instinct, setting an edge, and it just doesn't feel like it normally does. Do you employ a lighter touch or a heavier one? Heavier ones usually slow you down, but if it's steep enough and you're good enough you can set an edge and accelerate. But your ski must hold the line exactly, never waver, which is very hard to do in the snow in Beijing.

Shiffrin is not the only skier having this problem. Her boyfriend Kilde, dominant in the downhill on the World Cup, got aggressive and set his edge and lost fractions of a second which left him out of the medals.

Same deal with Vlhova, Shiffrin's rival. She was way back in the giant slalom, and as I write this way off pace in the first run of the slalom.

But doesn't everybody ski on the same surface?

Yes, but there's less pressure on the non-stars. They can relax more, to their advantage. Whereas the stars, especially Shiffrin in the slalom, have to ski to win! They can't let their foot off the gas. And in this aggressive pose, they set their skis into this junk...

I mean it doesn't even feel like regular snow. Like I said, the top is like sand, small grains floating around. And underneath this is the same substance, just compressed so hard that there's almost no give. Whereas if it's ice, the edge comes in and melts the ice ever so minimally and you hold your carve, the ski doesn't slip, and you're on your way.

What next, winter Olympics in Miami?

This has gone too far.

P.S. Petra Vlhova won the gold medal in the slalom. Like I said above, she was far behind in the first run, in eighth place, .72 seconds off the pace, but the truth is Vlhova and Shiffrin can make up as much as 1.5 seconds in the second run, they're just that good. And on the second run, the start order is reversed. Slower skiers first, fastest skiers last, and there are thirty of them. And with absolutely nothing to lose, Vlhova threw down a blistering second run. To go into first position. With seven skiers left. And this is very tough psychologically for the remaining skiers. Vlhova is the best on the circuit, even better than Shiffrin this year, and if she threw down such a great run...to win, they had to lay down a blistering one too. Talk about pressure. No one could.

--
Visit the archive: lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1

If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, Unsubscribe

To change your email address this link

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wall Street favorite to “FLASH CRASH” next week?

Warning traders!!! Hey,   Before you trade next week, you need to see this.   My AI says one of Wall Street's favorite stocks could ex...