| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Andrew Desiderio and Quint Forgey | | 
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks during a news conference with President Joe Biden in the East Room of the White House, Monday, Feb. 7, 2022, in Washington. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | With help from Connor O'Brien and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The greatest obsession in Washington, D.C.'s national security community, aside from the debate about whether Le Diplomate has the best brunch, is why German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ won't explicitly declare the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline dead should Russia enhance its invasion of Ukraine. He had three clear opportunities to do so during his visit to town the last two days, his first since taking over from ANGELA MERKEL in December. In each instance, he repeated a version of what he told CNN's JAKE TAPPER: "We will act absolutely together, we will have all the same steps," including imposing sanctions on Russia that will hurt the Kremlin "intensely." Was ist hier los? Why is Scholz dancing around the issue, even when standing beside President JOE BIDEN? First off, German officials have privately assured their American counterparts the pipeline project would end should more Russian troops storm into Ukraine, per multiple people familiar. While there's daylight in public messaging on Nord Stream 2, "there's no daylight between our governments," a U.S. official told NatSec Daily. When we asked the NSC and the German embassy in Washington about this, both directed us to Biden and Scholz's Monday news conference without denying (or explicitly confirming) what sources told us. Scholz, however, was a bit more direct with top senators Monday night during a dinner at the German embassy. He denied a charge that Berlin aims to serve as a bridge between Moscow and Washington, according to Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.). And, per Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), Scholz declared his public statements were designed to maintain "strategic ambiguity" regarding action toward the Kremlin. "We do that ourselves" on issues of mutual importance, the top Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee told us. "I believe we're in the same place on Nord Stream 2." But Scholz's reticence to state the obvious openly is also due to Scholz's domestic concerns, the Brookings Institution's CONSTANZE STELZENMÜLLER said in an interview. If Scholz declared the energy throughway a goner, the six-company consortium that built and owns the pipeline would initiate litigation to seek damages. German courts have taken this issue seriously before, namely when Merkel canceled nuclear power projects after the 2011 Fukushima disaster . Fending off what would be a messy, high-profile legal challenge is presumably on the chancellor's mind. Another aspect that may be troubling Scholz is his relatively weak political position, Stelzenmüller noted. He leads modern Germany's first-ever three-party coalition, with his Social Democrats receiving a mere 25.7 percent of the total vote in September's federal elections . It took months to form a government, with Scholz coming to power three months after polls closed. Openly declaring the pipeline a goner could invite political blowback and threaten his leadership. "German politics are funny. They can't say things out loud and on the fly like we can. They form a coalition and they stick to the agreements they made, which means he has less wiggle room to make public pronouncements on Nord Stream that we may like," said Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), who also attended the Scholz dinner. Finally, recent history plays into all this. The Germans appreciate how much the Biden administration has engaged Berlin, but few want to see another German chancellor pushed around by an American president, like Merkel was by former President DONALD TRUMP. Scholz, then, must maintain an aura of defiant independence. Scholz heads to Moscow next week to meet with Putin, where he'll surely field questions about the pipeline's future. After his American visit, he'll travel there confidently knowing the Nord Stream 2 situation remains strategically ambiguous.
| | | | HAPPENING THURSDAY – A LONG GAME CONVERSATION ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS : Join POLITICO for back-to-back conversations on climate and sustainability action, starting with a panel led by Global Insider author Ryan Heath focused on insights gleaned from our POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll of citizens from 13 countries on five continents about how their governments should respond to climate change. Following the panel, join a discussion with POLITICO White House Correspondent Laura Barrón-López and Gina McCarthy, White House national climate advisor, about the Biden administration's climate and sustainability agenda. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– 105 GROUPS DEMAND OVERHAUL OF CIVILIAN HARM POLICY: More than 100 humanitarian, veteran and other groups penned an open letter to Biden demanding he significantly change how the U.S. handles civilian casualties during military operations. Coming just one day before a high-profile Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the issue, organizations like the American Civil Liberties Union, Human Rights Watch and Oxfam called on the president to "publicly recognize the longstanding structural flaws in how the U.S. mitigates, investigates, and responds to civilian deaths and injuries in its operations." "For two decades, U.S. operations overseas have killed tens of thousands of civilians around the world — primarily from Brown, Black, and Muslim communities — and exacerbated communities' humanitarian needs. Rather than taking effective action to prevent and respond to these harms, the Defense Department has summarily dismissed countless credible claims of civilian casualties and regularly failed to conduct effective or transparent investigations, learn lessons over time, or provide amends, redress, or meaningful accountability," they wrote in the letter exclusively obtained by NatSec Daily. The civilian harm issue has become a larger focus for the media and NGOs, especially in light of recent New York Times exposés and the Pentagon's initial, wrongful claim that the killing of 10 civilians in Afghanistan last August was a "righteous strike." The administration took pains after the killing of ISIS' leader last week to say it wasn't responsible for the more than 10 civilian deaths during the raid. Now, the groups want Biden to announce four steps to stop such deadly mistakes from happening again: commit to a study on how to reduce civilian harm; prioritize civilian protection in counterterrorism operations; ensure transparency into all reports of civilian harm; and provide "meaningful accountability to civilian victims and survivors of U.S. operations." "We are asking President Biden, as Commander-in-Chief, to take the lead on a much needed structural reform of civilian harm policies and practices," PRIYANKA MOTAPARTHY of the Columbia Law School Human Rights Institute told NatSec Daily in an email. "He has made pledges to center human rights, and to end the forever wars, and it is time to reckon with a 20 year legacy of U.S. harm. An incredibly wide-ranging group of organizations, representing many constituencies, has asked him to take this on." After the errant strike in Afghanistan last August, the Defense Department announced that no staffers would be reprimanded. DOCS REVEAL MILITARY'S FRUSTRATION WITH AFG WITHDRAWAL: An Army investigative report, obtained by The Washington Post's DAN LAMOTHE and ALEX HORTON via a Freedom of Information Act request, provides stark new details about the U.S. military's displeasure with the Afghanistan evacuation and violent events at Kabul's airport. "Beyond the bleak, blunt assessments of top military commanders, the documents contain previously unreported disclosures about the violence American personnel experienced, including one exchange of gunfire that left two Taliban fighters dead after they allegedly menaced a group of U.S. Marines and Afghan civilians, and a separate incident in which U.S. troops killed a member of an elite Afghan strike unit and wounded six others after they fired on the Americans," they wrote. Rear Adm. PETER VASELY , who commanded the evacuation effort in Afghanistan's capital, said troops would've been "much better prepared to conduct a more orderly" evacuation if unnamed "policymakers had paid attention to the indicators of what was happening on the ground." Brig. Gen. FARRELL SULLIVAN, who helped with evacuations plans, said that a National Security Council official as late as Aug. 6 argued evacuating Afghanistan meant "we have failed." "In my opinion, the NSC was not seriously planning for an evacuation," Sullivan alleged in the report. A Senate Foreign Relations Committee panel Wednesday will address America's post-invasion humanitarian response to Afghanistan. NORTH KOREA'S NEW ICBM BASE: North Korea is likely to use a base roughly 15 miles from its border with China to store intercontinental ballistic missiles, a research team at the Center for Strategic and International Studies found. "[T]he Hoejung-ni missile operating base will, according to informed sources, likely house a regiment-sized unit equipped with" ICBMs, wrote JOSEPH BERMUDEZ, VICTOR CHA and JENNIFER JUN. "As of January 21, 2022, the base is active and being well-maintained by North Korean standards. As best as can be determined from satellite imagery, informed sources, and what little data is available, the base is ready to receive an operational ICBM unit." Experts expect that North Korea will launch an ICBM sometime this year, which would be the first since November 2017. North Korean leader KIM JONG UN indicated in January that he would lift the self-imposed moratorium, initially implemented to reduce tensions with the U.S. And after a record-setting number of tests in January , featuring some sophisticated missiles, analysts say Kim will likely launch the big weapon sometime after the Olympics. 'EXTREMELY DIFFICULT' TO DO CT IN AFG: Biden's pick to lead U.S. forces in the Middle East, Lt. Gen. MICHAEL KURILLA , acknowledged counterterror operations in Afghanistan will be a tough task with no troops on the ground. "Over-the-horizon capability is extremely difficult, but not impossible," Kurilla, the nominee to lead U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee today during his confirmation hearing. Without troops in Afghanistan or a base in a neighboring country, the long-distance approach to counterterror strikes is "resource intensive," Kurilla said in an exchange with Sen. DEB FISCHER (R-Neb.). He added that getting to Afghanistan and back alone consumes about two-thirds of flying time. Kurilla, who told senators that both ISIS and al Qaeda are "reconstituting" in Afghanistan, added the U.S. will have to rebuild its intelligence capabilities to perform the long-distance mission. "I think we need to reinvest in a lot of our intelligence capabilities, our human intelligence capabilities that was lost during the withdrawal," he said. The concept of "over-the-horizon" operations against terrorist groups has been repeatedly panned by lawmakers as unworkable, a sentiment several senators repeated during today's hearing. The Biden administration has sought nearby locations from which to conduct airstrikes against terrorist groups in Afghanistan, but has yet to clinch such a deal.
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At Lockheed Martin, customer focus, innovation and purpose are built into everything we do. Every mission is an expedition of the greatest importance: both to you, and to us. Learn more. | | | China looms large: Kurilla also told senators that rebuffing Beijing's growing influence in the Middle East, where it has boosted spending on infrastructure and development, is a "great concern" for Central Command. "Right now, 18 of 21 countries in the CENTCOM [area] have signed agreements, strategic agreements, for Belt and Road initiatives with China. China has increased their spending 360 percent in the Middle East," Kurilla told Sen. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.). "What we have to do is expose their predatory practices where they treat every country as a client or a customer." IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
| | | POLAND PREPARES FOR UKRAINE REFUGEES: Warsaw is bracing for an influx of refugees from Ukraine should Russia send more troops into the country, our own WOJCIECH KOŚĆ reported. "We have to be prepared for the worst-case scenario and [we have] been taking steps so as to be prepared for a wave of up to a million people," Deputy Interior Minister MACIEJ WĄSIK told Polish Radio. "In line with the Geneva Convention, these people will be under Polish protection, and we absolutely won't say no to helping them." This would be a totally different scenario from when Belarus tried to send Middle Eastern refugees into Poland. As Kość notes, "Ukrainians have the right to visa-free entry into the EU and Ukraine borders the EU — meaning authorities won't be able to claim that refugees should seek asylum elsewhere." The question is if Poland can handle around 1 million refugees. "Observers have doubts if Poland can do much. There are no more than 2,000 places to house refugees across 10 centers run by the Office for Foreigners — the government department responsible for migration. The Border Guard has just over 2,300 spots, but only 800 are currently available," Kość reports. "The Border Guard is prepared to make additional places available," a spokesperson for Poland's Interior Ministry told him. SYNTHETIC DRUG TRAFFICKING IS 'NATIONAL SECURITY' EMERGENCY: The Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking, convened in May 2020, has released a long-anticipated report that describes the crisis as "a national emergency that threatens both the national security and economic well-being of the country," per our own PHELIM KINE. The report includes 76 recommendations to reduce the supply of illicit synthetic opioids produced and exported by Mexican drug cartels using Chinese-manufactured raw materials. "In terms of loss of life and damage to the economy, illicit synthetic opioids have the effect of a slow-motion weapon of mass destruction in pill form," the document states. Specifically, the commission proposes that the U.S. government leverage its diplomatic influence to pressure the Chinese government to enforce laws and regulations, as well as bolster the capacity of the Mexican government to address the activities of Mexican cartels.
| | | PALESTINIAN-ALIGNED HACKERS USE INTEL-GATHERING MALWARE: The Palestinian-aligned hacking group Molerats is using a intelligence-gathering malware called NimbleMamba to spy on Middle Eastern governments and private groups, cybersecurity firm Proofpoint detailed in a report today. "In late 2021, Proofpoint analysts identified a complex attack chain targeting Middle Eastern governments, foreign policy think tanks, and a state-affiliated airline," Proofpoint's KONSTANTIN KLINGER, JOSHUA MILLER, and GEORGI MLADENOV wrote. "Proofpoint attributes these campaigns to TA402, an actor commonly tracked as Molerats and believed to be operating in the interest of the Palestinian Territories. Based on Proofpoint's research, TA402 is a persistent threat to organizations and governments in the Middle East, routinely updating not only their malware implants, but also their delivery methods." "TA402 continues to be an effective threat actor that demonstrates its persistence with its highly targeted campaigns focused on the Middle East. Based on the variations between campaigns delivering NimbleMamba, along with the historical pattern of developing new malware post disclosure, Proofpoint judges with moderate confidence that TA402 will continue to update both their implants and infection chains to complicate defensive efforts," they continued.
| | | |   | | | | | | ARMY INKS QUADCOPTER DRONE DEAL: After evaluating more than 30 proposals from small drone vendors and testing unmanned aircraft from five finalists, the Army has selected California-based Skydio to build the quadcopter drone for its short-range reconnaissance program, per our own LEE HUDSON (for Pros!). The military previously operated small quadcopter drones made by Chinese company Da Jiang Innovations. But the Pentagon discovered in 2018 that data was getting sent back to the Chinese government, prompting then-Deputy Defense Secretary PAT SHANAHAN to sign a memo banning the purchase and use of all commercially available drones due to cybersecurity concerns. In 2020, the Pentagon lifted the ban on purchases of commercially made drones. Since then, the Army has been seeking a quadcopter drone that a soldier could carry in a backpack and set up quickly to view enemy troop movements on the battlefield. And because these commercially available drones are not as sophisticated as military unmanned aircraft, the Pentagon isn't concerned about them getting shot down or falling into enemy hands. ARMY RELEASES CLIMATE STRATEGY: What a difference an administration makes. U.S. military and defense leaders avoided talking openly about climate change during the Trump years, while now the Army has just released its first-ever climate strategy. The strategy focuses on three lines of effort, per a news release.
- Installations: Enhance resilience and sustainability by adapting infrastructure and natural environments to climate change risks, securing access to training and testing lands into the future, and mitigating GHG emissions
- Acquisition & Logistics: Increase operational capability while reducing sustainment demand and strengthening climate resilience
- Training: Prepare a force that is ready to operate in a climate-altered world
As Defense News' JEN JUDSON reported, the strategy indicates that the Army "plans to install a microgrid on all of its installations by 2035, field fully electric tactical vehicles by 2050 and ensure all operational and strategic exercises and simulations consider climate change risks and threats by 2028." "The time to address climate change is now. The effects of climate change have taken a toll on supply chains, damaged our infrastructure, and increased risks to Army Soldiers and families due to natural disasters and extreme weather," Secretary of the Army CHRISTINE WORMUTH said in a released statement. "If we do not take action now, across our installations, acquisition and logistics, and training, our options to mitigate these risks will become more constrained with each passing year."
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– WARREN AND LEE PUSH DOD TO CONSIDER CLIMATE IN NDS: Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), Rep. BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.) and 16 other congressional Democrats wrote to Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN urging the Pentagon to "strongly consider" climate change in the National Defense Strategy and shift the budget accordingly. "Our present national security investments and strategies fail to protect Americans from the worsening climate crisis and do not address DoD's role as the world's largest consumer of fossil fuels and emitter of greenhouse gases," the lawmakers wrote in the letter exclusively obtained by NatSec Daily. "By treating the climate crisis as the existential and national security threat that it is through the National Defense Strategy, DoD can maintain national security and military readiness, avoid billions of dollars in damages and save millions of lives." The Defense Department has long considered climate change a "threat multiplier" and installations have suffered its effects in recent years. The Trump administration deemphasized the issue, but it has gained prominence during the Biden years. It remains unclear when the Pentagon will release the NDS, though it's expected within a month or two. HOUSE WATCHDOG PROPOSES 'INSIDER THREAT' PROGRAM: A draft report produced by the House's Office of the Inspector General suggests that the House Sergeant at Arms' office start a comprehensive "insider threat" program with a "behavioral monitoring" component to better protect the chamber, per our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN. House Sergeant at Arms WILLIAM WALKER said in a letter included in the draft report that he's already started developing an insider threat awareness program. But Walker told POLITICO that he "has no plans, intentions, or interests in conducting any surveillance or monitoring of people who work on the Hill as part of its effort to prevent an insider threat from materializing." As Swan notes, comprehensive insider threat programs "are widely used in the executive branch, particularly in national security agencies." These programs "generally assess typical employee behavior — the average number of pages printed per week, for instance — in an effort to gauge if someone's online activity has become aberrant. The degrees of scrutiny that these programs level can vary substantially from agency to agency."
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The Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) will enable the U.S. to hold fixed, high-value, time-sensitive targets at risk in contested environments from stand-off distances. Learn more. | | | | | | RUSSIA DENIES WHAT FRANCE SAID: French President EMMANUEL MACRON's office claimed that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN promised Moscow wouldn't execute new "military initiatives " around Ukraine and that troops would leave Belarus after an exercise ends on Feb. 20. Looks like that five-hour meeting yesterday panned out after all, right? Nyet, says the Kremlin. "Given the current situation, Moscow and Paris could not have struck any deals," Putin's spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told reporters. "It is simply impossible." "Substantive relations have been established between Putin and Macron, which allow them to spend a lot of time interacting with each other," he added. "The presentation of arguments, at least, by our president with regards to our stance, of course, needs time." Macron, however, still sees it differently. "We have now the possibility of advancing negotiations," Macron told reporters today alongside Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, per France24. "I obtained [from Putin] that there will be no degradation nor escalation." NatSec Daily briefly spoke with DAVID O'SULLIVAN, the European Union's ambassador to the U.S. from 2014 to 2019, about Macron's shuttle diplomacy. He said the French president is "just doing what needs to be done" and is offering slightly different pathways forward than his counterparts in Washington or Berlin. "Macron is tossing a few ideas out there and see if something works." Ahead of the meeting with Putin, Macron suggested that the "Finlandization" of Ukraine was "one of the models on the table." That means, essentially, that Ukraine could maintain close Western ties but the door to Kyiv's NATO accession implicitly would be closed. O'Sullivan said Macron likely didn't mean it as a "literal copy-and-paste" of Finland's situation, but rather as a more tacit acknowledgement that Ukraine is nowhere near ready to join the alliance. "Nobody thinks there's a realistic possibility of Ukraine joining any time soon," the former ambassador said, echoing comments made by both Macron and Biden.
| | | — RICK DUKE has been nominated to serve as a deputy to Special Presidential Envoy for Climate JOHN KERRY, per Reuters' VALERIE VOLCOVICI . Duke is a senior adviser to Kerry. He previously served as a special adviser on climate change to former President BARACK OBAMA and as a fellow at the Brookings Institution. — ANDREW HUNTER has assumed the duties of undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment. He was confirmed by the Senate last week to serve as assistant secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics. He will serve temporarily as the department's top weapons buyer as the Pentagon awaits the Senate confirmation of WILLIAM LAPLANTE, the president's nominee for the post. — DARCI VETTER will join The Nature Conservancy next month as global lead for policy and government relations. She most recently was a senior adviser at Edelman Global Advisory and previously served as chief agricultural negotiator at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. — JOHN R. ALLEN, PAUL J. ANGELO, ROBERT E. CLARK II, MICHELLE JANINE HOWARD, JOHN S. MCCAIN IV and AMY MCGRATH have been appointed by the president to serve as members of the Board of Visitors to the U.S. Naval Academy.
| | | — BERNIE SANDERS, The Guardian: " We must do everything possible to avoid an enormously destructive war in Ukraine" — ERICA CHENOWETH and ZOE MARKS, Foreign Affairs: " Revenge of the Patriarchs: Why Autocrats Fear Women" — MAX BEARAK, MEG KELLY and JOYCE SOHYUN LEE, The Washington Post: " How Ethiopia used a Turkish drone in a strike that killed nearly 60 civilians" |  | Tomorrow Today | | — Kerry heads to Mexico: The special presidential envoy for climate will travel to Mexico City on Feb. 9, where he will meet with Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZOBRADOR and other government officials. — State officials head to Estonia: Undersecretary for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights UZRA ZEYA and acting Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor LISA PETERSON will travel to Tallinn from Feb. 9-11 for the third Global Conference for Media Freedom. — Punchbowl News, 9 a.m.: " Cybersecurity and the Importance of Privacy and Security in All Forms of Technology — with RO KHANNA and ANNA PALMER" — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: " Saudi Arabia and Iraq: An Evolving Relationship — with RANJ ALAALDIN, KATHERINE HARVEY, KENNETH POLLACK and BRUCE RIEDEL" — The Cipher Brief's Cyber Initiatives Group, 10 a.m.: " First Quarter Summit — with JOHN CARLIN, SUSAN GORDON, MATT HAYDEN, CHRIS INGLIS and KIERSTEN TODT" — House Veterans' Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: IT Infrastructure Modernization: Addressing Ongoing Challenges and the Path Forward" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: " Briefing: Iran: Update on Vienna Discussions — with ROBERT MALLEY" — Senate Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: 'Targeted Killing' and the Rule of Law: The Legal and Human Costs of 20 Years of U.S. Drone Strikes" — The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 10:30 a.m.: " Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations: Policy Implications for Success or Failure — with MOHAMMED ALSULAMI, JOHN DUKE ANTHONY, DAVID DES ROCHES and NORMAN ROULE" — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11 a.m.: " Army Luncheon — with JASON MILLER, DOVARIUS L. PEOPLES, ANGELICA 'ANGEL' PHANEUF, PAUL PUCKETT and ROB SCHADEY" — The Center for a New American Security, 12 p.m.: " Rethinking Human Capital: Before and After Service — with JAMES ANDERSON, BISHOP GARRISON, KATHERINE KUZMINSKI and MIRIAM MATTHEWS" — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: " Germany's Worldview and the Crisis in Ukraine — with LIANA FIX, ULRIKE FRANKE, PETER ROUGH and ULRICH SPECK" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: Afghanistan: The Humanitarian Crisis and U.S. Response — with DAVID MILIBAND and GRAEME SMITH" — Senate Intelligence Committee, 2:30 p.m.: " Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters" — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 3 p.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with DIMITRI KUSNEZOV"
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