| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | With help from Quint Forgey, Phelim Kine, Betsy Woodruff Swan, Cristina Gallardo, David Herszenhorn, Nahal Toosi, and Andrew Desiderio
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"Every indication we have is they're prepared to go into Ukraine," President Joe Biden told reporters today. "My sense is this will happen within the next several days." | Alex Wong/Getty Images | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint A parade of top U.S. officials sounded their loudest alarm bells to date that Russia soon will invade Ukraine, even as Western governments rallied to expose Moscow's military plans and keep the diplomatic initiative alive. LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told reporters this morning and then tweeted that "The evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion." An hour later, President JOE BIDEN addressed the White House press pool before flying to Cleveland: "Every indication we have is they're prepared to go into Ukraine," he said. "My sense is this will happen within the next several days." While Biden asserted the diplomatic door is still open to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, he said the threat of an invasion is "very high." And an hour after that, Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) went on MSNBC to say "From all accounts, it seems that Vladimir Putin is headed towards conflict instead of diplomacy." "I'm getting more and more concerned that the window for diplomacy is being shut by Putin and his moving forward would be a tragic mistake for the Ukrainians but also a tragic mistake for Russia," the lawmaker continued. These comments reflect the pessimism NatSec Daily is hearing on both sides of the Atlantic. Many in Washington, D.C., Brussels, London, Berlin or Kyiv now say diplomatic prospects are dwindling. Russia today finally responded to America's written stances on Ukraine and European security, and per state-controlled local media, the Kremlin is unhappy. "In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees to ensure our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including by implementing measures of a military-technical nature," the document reportedly reads. Nearly everyone we talk to is more resigned to the unfortunate likelihood of Putin sending some of his 160,000 troops across the Ukrainian border. Western officials have released what they claim is Russia's " axis of invasion ." Moscow's troops in the east and others in Crimea would aim to seize parts of Ukraine up to Dnieper River, targeting towns like Nikolaev, Kherson and Mariupol along the way. That's easier said than done, as Mariupol alone is a city of 500,000 people that would cost the Russians dearly to occupy, hold and support. Still, the eastern campaign could keep Ukrainian forces so busy that they'd struggle to repel an advance on Kyiv from Belarus. U.S. and Western officials assess Russia could reach the Ukrainian capital within days of launching the incursion, possibly with the goal of deposing the government and installing a puppet regime. A person familiar with Ukrainian officials' thinking said Kyiv expects an attack in the east any day now, likely beginning in the Donbas' Luhansk area and then expanding from there. Before that could happen, however, the Kremlin may seek to create a pretext for invasion, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG reiterated to reporters today. We may have gotten a preview of what it could look like: Russian-backed separatists injured three people across the line of contact in Ukraine's east. DMITRY PESKOV, the top Kremlin spokesperson, then commented that "the situation near the borders of Russia can ignite at any moment," insisting without evidence that Ukraine's forces had taken "provocative actions that have only intensified in the last day or several days." Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, during his surprise appearance at the U.N. Security Council today, claimed Russia could be prepping other false-flag operations such as "fabricated so-called terrorist bombing inside Russia" with fake graves and drone strikes, or a "fake, even a real, attack using chemical weapons." "I am here today not to start a war but to prevent one," Blinken said.
| | | RUSSIA EXPELS U.S. EMBASSY'S NO. 2: There's some confusion surrounding the expulsion of BART GORMAN , America's deputy chief of mission at the U.S. embassy in Russia. An embassy spokesperson confirmed the departure to our own NAHAL TOOSI, adding "DCM Gorman's tour had not ended; he had a valid visa, and he had been in Russia less than three years." The reporting initially made it seem that Gorman was just pushed out, possibly as a way to weaken an already depleted embassy ahead of a Russian invasion. But POLITICO's world and national security editor BEN PAUKER found out that's not the case: "He left more than a week ago and the notice to depart came back in January," he tweeted. "State may have just confirmed this, but I'm told [Bart] Gorman left on Feb. 9 and the notice came at least 10 days before that," he also posted in response to a New York Times article. Gorman's departure is still provocative. The tit-for-tat of diplomatic dismissals between the U.S. and Russia continues and underscores just how low relations have sunk. But the timing here still matters, and, no, Gorman wasn't just told to leave Russia. He left a while ago. LAST U.S. TROOPS ARRIVE IN POLAND: The last of the roughly 5,000 members of the 82nd Airborne Division have arrived in Poland, the New York Times' ERIC SCHMITT reported, adding to the Biden administration's simultaneous assurance and deterrence mission on NATO's eastern flank. "Another 1,000 American troops — a Stryker squadron from the Army's 2nd Cavalry Regiment — are moving from Germany to Romania, and should be in place by Saturday, a U.S. military official said. The Air Force has sent more than a dozen additional fighter jets to Eastern Europe in recent days to bolster aerial defenses there," Schmitt continued. "The reinforcements would more than double the number of American ground troops in the two countries, to roughly 9,000 in Poland and nearly 2,000 in Romania, putting U.S. soldiers and Russian troops in perhaps the closest proximity in years outside of drills." There remains zero appetite in the U.S. to send troops into Ukraine to fend off the Russians during an invasion, with Biden recently saying such a scenario amounts to a "world war." The administration's main goal with the deployments is to steel allies and signal to Putin that he can only go so far. WHERE THE RUSSIANS ARE: A new Janes analysis, obtained by NatSec Daily, provides some more insight as to what Russian troops are up to. "[A]nalysis of social media and satellite imagery indicates that Russian forces have left the equipment stores established during the ongoing build-up and have moved to new positions significantly closer to the Ukrainian border," a Janes analyst reported on Feb. 16. "Janes has identified the likely deployment of district-level S-300V air defence systems and 2S4 and 2S7M long-range artillery, along with forces from the 1st Guards Tank Army's 4th Tank Division and 2nd Motorised Division deploying to two or three sites less than 30 km from the Ukrainian border in Belgorod. At least 17 helicopters, including Mi-8AMTSh attack transports and Mi-24 attack helicopters, have also deployed to a site north of Belgorod city, less than 40 km from the Ukrainian border." "Janes has identified potential similar movements by Russian troops stationed at the 36th Combined Arms Army camp in Rechitsa, eastern Belarus, which satellite imagery from 14 February showed to be almost empty. The 41st Combined Arms Army camp in Yelnya, Smolensk, has also seen a significant drawdown since early February, with no sign of the troops returning to their permanent bases," the bulletin continued. Furthermore, fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft have been forward deployed to "multiple sites near the border" while the Russian Navy has bolstered forces in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. "As of 16 February, Russia had moved one Kilo-class patrol submarine and six additional landing ship tank (LST) vessels from the Northern and Baltic Fleet into the Black Sea, bringing the total in the Black Sea to 13 LSTs, supported by at least five smaller landing craft from the Caspian Flotilla." In the Med, Russia has a "significantly expanded naval presence comprising two Slava-class cruisers and two Udaloy-class destroyers from the Pacific and Northern Fleets, as well as a sizeable Black Sea Fleet force of frigates, corvettes, minesweepers, and two additional Kilo-class submarines." KREMLIN RESPONDS TO NATSEC DAILY: Loyal readers will remember we reported yesterday how experts think the period shortly after Feb. 20 — the day the Russia-Belarus exercises end and the Munich Security Conference concludes — was always more important than the hype around a supposed Feb. 16 invasion. A reporter asked Peskov about this today, and he essentially called us fake news: "Probably, another fake has appeared. I hope that at least we will not believe and trust such fakes," he said. To be clear, we never reported that Feb. 16 was invasion day, just that Biden told his Western counterparts the U.S. had intelligence Russia might launch an invasion that day. In public, though, no administration officials would confirm that comment, insisting instead that an attack could come "at any day." As for our piece Wednesday, we also didn't report that an invasion would happen shortly after Feb. 20. We did report that experts see that time period as helpful since we can observe if Russia will keep its promise by removing 30,000 troops from Belarus then. If not, we'll all have a greater insight into Putin's true intentions. Hat tip to Puck News' JULIA IOFFE for letting us know about our newfound fame in the Kremlin. IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | GAO: GAPS IN PENTAGON CHINA STRATEGY: The U.S. Government Accountability Office warned Tuesday of gaps in the Department of Defense's strategy to counter China's national security threats, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. A GAO National Security Snapshot report flagged five areas in which the Pentagon could bolster U.S. strategic advantage against China, including addressing issues with the F-35's central logistics systems, implementing measures to ensure "cyber hygiene" and analysis of factors contributing to "sailor fatigue" in the U.S. Navy. "For the U.S. to be poised for success in facing threats from China, DOD will need to take timely actions and congressional oversight will be important as these efforts proceed," the report noted. It's possible both the new National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy will address some of these gaps. But, as NatSec Daily previously reported , the Russia-Ukraine crisis has delayed the release of those documents. CHINA'S U.N. AMB HAS HARSH WORDS FOR U.S.: During the U.N. meeting on the military standoff on Ukraine's border, the Chinese ambassador to the body opted to target Washington — and not Moscow — with his words. "There's one country that refuses to renounce its Cold War mentality. It says one thing and does another in order to seek absolute military superiority. It has been planning up in the Asia-Pacific region, creating some trilateral, quadrilateral small circles or peaks bent on provoking confrontation," Amb. ZHANG JUN said, adding American policy "threatens the region's peace and stability to the detriment of the countries in the region, while getting nothing for itself, either." Zhang didn't specifically say the words "The United States," but it was clear what he was talking about. His comments reflected not only the animosity between Washington and Beijing these days — especially as the Biden administration aims to counter China in multiple arenas — but also the regime's visible support for the Kremlin during the crisis. However, there's some internal discord in the Chinese capital over how, exactly, to back Moscow. "China's top leaders have spent days weighing how far Beijing should go to back Russian President Vladimir Putin and how to manage a partnership many call a marriage of convenience as opposed to one of conviction," The Wall Street Journal's LINGLING WEI reported Wednesday. "Behind closed doors … one topic of intense discussion is how to respond to the Russian-Ukraine crisis and back Moscow without hurting China's own interests."
| | | RUSSIAN CYBER ACTORS TARGETED DEFENSE INDUSTRY: Russian state-sponsored hackers for at least two years targeted U.S. defense contractors in the hopes of acquiring sensitive information, three U.S. agencies said Wednesday. From at least January 2020 to February 2022, these actors "have used common but effective tactics to gain access to target networks, including spearphishing, credential harvesting, brute force/password spray techniques, and known vulnerability exploitation against accounts and networks with weak security. These actors take advantage of simple passwords, unpatched systems, and unsuspecting employees to gain initial access before moving laterally through the network to establish persistence and exfiltrate data," the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation and the National Security Agency said in a joint bulletin. "These continued intrusions have enabled the actors to acquire sensitive, unclassified information, as well as [defense contractor]-proprietary and export-controlled technology. The acquired information provides significant insight into U.S. weapons platforms development and deployment timelines, vehicle specifications, and plans for communications infrastructure and information technology. By acquiring proprietary internal documents and email communications, adversaries may be able to adjust their own military plans and priorities, hasten technological development efforts, inform foreign policymakers of U.S. intentions, and target potential sources for recruitment," the bulletin continued. It's another indication of how serious Russia's cyberintrusions can be, how good their state-sponsored hackers are and how vulnerable the U.S. remains to foreign hacking.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | CNO WANTS MORE ALLIED COOP ON TECH: Adm. MIKE GILDAY, the chief of naval operations, wants to work alongside allies as the U.S. develops tech to counter China, per Defense News' MEGAN ECKSTEIN. "Those allies and partners continue to be a key focus for me. We're exposing them [to] and collaborating with them in areas like [Project] Overmatch, and every area where I can collaborate more closely," Gilday told reporters recently. Speaking on how French and U.S. aircraft carriers worked together in the Middle East, Gilday said, "They have invested in fourth-generation aircraft, they're not moving to fifth yet. I want to make sure that our fourth- and fifth-gen squadrons can operate seamlessly together. So that's an area where we want to work closely with them." As Eckstein pointed out, the most notable example of this kind of partnership is the AUKUS nuclear-submarine agreement. It's an example of the U.S. working closely with an allied nation to produce highly capable and sensitive technology that's serviceable during a confrontation in the Indo-Pacific.
| | | SENATE RESOLUTION BACKS UKRAINE: A bipartisan group of six senators introduced a resolution to show America's support for "an independent and democratic Ukraine" as it faces a major military threat from Russia. The measure, led by Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio), doesn't provide Ukraine with anything or punish Russia in some way — it's a symbolic gesture to show that Republicans and Democrats back Kyiv and condemn Moscow. It carries extra weight since the top two members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — Chair Menendez and ranking member JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) — signed on to the bill. "It is not a question of 'if' but 'how' we will respond to Putin, and there continues to be a bipartisan desire to do so. Our resolution reaffirms that commitment and is a direct message to both Ukraine and Russia about where the United States stands," Shaheen said in a statement. "This resolution allows us to speak with one voice in denouncing the buildup of Russian troops at Ukraine's border and reaffirming our bipartisan commitment to impose significant costs on Russia in the event they choose to invade our ally," Portman added. To pass their non-binding resolution, the lawmakers needed all 100 senators to approve it. But Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) plans to reject the measure, telling our own ANDREW DESIDERIO he wants to add amendments to it so that it neither turns into a de facto declaration of war nor commits U.S. troops to Ukraine. The resolution, though, doesn't allow either of those things. GALLAGHER'S PLAN TO DEFEND TAIWAN: Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), a former Marine and current House Armed Services Committee member, today released his blueprint for how the U.S. can defend Taiwan against a possible future Chinese invasion, per our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!). Job one is to grow the Navy, according to Battle Force 2025: A Plan to Defend Taiwan Within the Decade, published by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The Biden administration's first shipbuilding plan "began to step away from the Navy's long-held goal of 355 ships," it says. "Early indications suggest that next year's budget will further shrink the size of the fleet." The plan also calls for using available vessels until planned light amphibious warships are ready, including the Army Transportation Command's LCU-2000 Runnymede-class, the General Frank S. Besson-class logistic support vessels, as well as "maritime prepositioning force vessels, Coast Guard vessels, airborne insertion, and available commercial options." Gallagher also urges a new buildup on U.S. territories in the Pacific. "Many of these islands contributed to America's defense during World War II, and they can do so again," he writes. "The Pentagon should immediately review how best to use this dry ground, and should undertake the required environmental remediation and military construction to restore an American military presence in these islands." | | | |   | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– VANDENBERG COALITION WANTS AMNESTY'S ISRAEL REPORT DENOUNCED: Nearly 50 right-leaning national security professionals sent a letter to Amnesty International's global and U.S. boards demanding they "denounce" a recent report asserting Israel is committing the crime of apartheid against Palestinians. "This report is untruthful, deceptive, and antisemitic," wrote the group, organized by the nonpartisan Vandenberg Coalition and featuring former Sen. JOE LIEBERMAN, former Amb. ERIC EDELMAN and ELLIOTT ABRAMS . "The report goes to great lengths to manipulate the definition of apartheid laid out in international law in order to apply it to Israel. In doing so, it creates a standard for apartheid that is substantively different–and significantly less stringent–than that which the organization applies to other countries, such as Myanmar." Here's Amnesty's definition of apartheid in the 278-page report compiled over four years: "A system of apartheid is an institutionalized regime of oppression and domination by one racial group over another." The report's authors say that "Israel enforces such a system against Palestinians through laws, policies and practices which ensure their prolonged and cruel discriminatory treatment." "Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has pursued a policy of establishing and then maintaining a Jewish demographic majority, and maximizing control over land and resources to benefit Jewish Israelis. In 1967, Israel extended this policy to the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Today, all territories controlled by Israel continue to be administered with the purpose of benefiting Jewish Israelis to the detriment of Palestinians, while Palestinian refugees continue to be excluded," it continues. Amnesty isn't the only group to label Israeli's treatment of Palestinians as apartheid: Human Rights Watch did so in 2021, as has B'Tselem. That's not how the Vandenberg signees see it. "Since its founding, Israel has defended itself and its people against multiple attempts by Arab states and terrorist groups to commit genocide and wipe the Jewish homeland off the map. Yet Israel built and sustained a democracy, where Arabs are accorded more freedoms than in any other country in the Middle East," adding that the report is in "opposition to the existence of Israel." Amnesty International didn't return a request for comment. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– 40 ORGS DECRY POSSIBLE HOUTHI FTO LABEL: Forty civil society and anti-war organizations sent a letter to lawmakers today urging them to publicly oppose the potential redesignation of Yemen's Houthi rebels as a foreign terrorist organization. "While we agree that the Houthis share much blame, alongside the Saudi-led coalition, for horrific human rights violations in Yemen, an FTO designation does nothing to address these concerns," wrote the groups, including CODEPINK, the Friends Committee on National Legislation and Win Without War. "It would, however, prevent the delivery of commercial goods, remittances, and critical humanitarian assistance to millions of innocent people, greatly hurt the prospects for a negotiated settlement to the conflict, and further undermine U.S. national security interests in the region." Last February, the State Department removed the Houthis from the FTO list, namely so that food and fuel could reach the millions starving since the conflict began in 2015. But in recent weeks, the Iran-backed group has launched increasingly sophisticated attacks on coalition members like the United Arab Emirates. As a result, the Biden administration is currently weighing whether to redesignate the Houthis as terrorists. If that happens, these groups fear that the humanitarian situation — already one of the world's worst — will turn increasingly dire. "[E]ven if humanitarian exemptions are permitted, financial institutions, shipping firms, and insurance companies, along with aid organizations, are likely to find the risk of potential violations to be too high, resulting in these entities dramatically scaling down or even ending their involvement in Yemen — a decision that would have indescribably severe human consequences," they wrote.
| | | — CHUCK CASH is joining Spire as vice president of federal sales. A decorated Navy pilot, Cash was previously chief revenue officer of Govini.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — FATIMA FAIZI and NIKHIL KUMAR, Grid News: "'Delete the video': How Afghan journalists respond when the Taliban calls" — NICK FISHWICK, The Cipher Brief: "Fabrication Operations in War" — SINÉAD BAKER, Business Insider: "Russia Announced Georgia Troop Withdrawal 8 Days Before 2008 Invasion"
| | | — The 58th Munich Security Conference begins: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, Secretary of State Blinken and Special Presidential Envoy for Climate JOHN KERRY are among the U.S. delegation in Germany. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies and The Japan Institute of International Affairs, 8 a.m.: "2022 U.S.-Japan Security Seminar — with MICHAEL J. GREEN, YOSHIMASA HAYASHI, TETSUO KOTANI, BONNY LIN and KENICHIRO SASAE" — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: "Future Foreign Policy: Where Now For U.S.-Russia Relations? –– with EMMA ASHFORD, SAMUEL CHARAP, MICHAEL KOFMAN and ALEX WARD" — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: "Ukraine on the Eve of the Munich Security Conference — with MIKE TURNER" — The Aspen Institute, 2 p.m.: " Russian Aggression Toward Ukraine: Cyber Threats — with SANDRA JOYCE, CHRIS KREBS and HERB LIN" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who is here not to allow our newsletter to go out, but to stop it. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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