Monday, November 8, 2021

☕️ Unreal headline

Musk's tweet sparks conversation over taxes...
November 08, 2021 View Online | Sign Up

Morning Brew

eToro

Good morning. This weekend…

  • MJ Eberhart, who goes by the trail name Nimblewill Nomad, became the oldest person ever to complete the 2,193-mile Appalachian Trail at age 83.
  • Larry Tractenberg finished the NYC Marathon in just over five hours, 51 years after he ran the city's first marathon in 1970.

So there you have it: You're never too old. Brb about to shoot some jumpers.

Neal Freyman

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MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

15,971.59

S&P

4,697.53

Dow

36,327.95

10-Year

1.453%

Bitcoin

$63,059.30

Oil

$81.81

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 7:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: The three major indexes have gained for five straight weeks, so please, whatever you've been doing recently, don't change a thing.
  • Covid: President Biden's vaccine requirement for large US companies hit a legal snag when a federal appeals court temporarily suspended it. The judges wrote they have "grave statutory and constitutional issues with the mandate."

AUTO

2021 in a Headline

Headline saying "Twitter has spoken: Musk should sell $21 billion Tesla stake"

Screenshot of Bloomberg.com

*Record Scratch* *Freeze Frame* You're probably wondering how we got here.

On Saturday, Elon Musk proposed selling 10% of his Tesla stock, which is worth roughly $21 billion. And instead of, you know, consulting with advisors or lawyers, he did it the Elon Musk way: by creating a poll on Twitter and asking his followers to vote. He said he would "abide by the results of this poll."

3.5 million votes later, and 58% of respondents said he should sell.

So what happens next?

If Musk sticks to his word and unloads the stock, then he could end up with long-term capital gains tax liability of $6.69 billion, according to estimates by economics researcher Ryan Radia. Can you think of a bigger individual tax bill in history? We can't.

Tesla's stock price will be interesting to watch this morning, but experts say Musk's $21 billion tweet may not be too much of a curveball for current shareholders, because his intentions to sell some of his Tesla shares are well known:

  • Speaking at the Code Conference in September, Musk said he'd sell a "huge block" of his expiring stock options in Q4.
  • And two weeks ago he said he'd sell $6 billion worth of stock and donate it to the UN's World Food Programme (WFP), provided they open their books and prove that that amount would end world hunger.

Reading between the lines: Musk appears to have already made up his mind about selling Tesla stock, but he wanted to have some fun on Twitter before doing it.

The tax angle

Musk's rising fortune ($338 billion at last count) has been the focus of a proposed "billionaire's tax" that would hit the unrealized gains of the richest 700 or so Americans. While that proposal faces an uphill battle in Congress, it reflects growing concern about tax avoidance by the top 0.01%, whose riches are tied up in investments that aren't taxed until they're sold.

Sen. Ron Wyden, who introduced the billionaire's tax, said, "Whether or not the world's wealthiest man pays any taxes at all shouldn't depend on the results of a Twitter poll."

        

ECONOMY

Why the BIF Is a BFD

The House passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, known as BIF, late Friday night, putting an end to the long-running joke that Congress could never close the deal on an infrastructure bill. It'll head to President Biden's desk for his signature.

Why it matters: If the supply chain mayhem has taught us anything, it's that the economic machine can't function without the right nuts and bolts in place. The Business Roundtable, an influential group of US execs, called the bill "vital for the economy" and urged its passage.

  • Plus, even in an era where Democrats and Republicans are going at it like rival San Diego TV stations, the bill earned bipartisan support. In the summer, the Senate passed it on a 69–30 vote.

BIF 101: The bill provides $550 billion in new funding for infrastructure projects like bridges, broadband, and EV charging stations—and represents the biggest federal investment in infrastructure in more than a decade. It'll be paid for mostly by Covid relief funds that haven't been spent and a crackdown on taxes for crypto trading.

Looking ahead...with Part 1 of their economic agenda done and dusted, Democrats turn to Part 2: the $1.75 trillion social spending bill. Before voting, lawmakers are waiting to hear from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office about how much it would cost American taxpayers.

        

TRAVEL

Make America Touristy Again

Squid game character saying we're excited to welcome you

Netflix

Beginning today, the US is relaxing its restrictions on nonessential international travel for the first time since the pandemic began.

  • Visitors must be vaccinated by a shot approved by the FDA or WHO, and must present a negative Covid test within 72 hours of departure. There are a few exceptions for youngsters and people who live in countries where vaccines aren't as accessible.

For families who haven't seen each other in years, this is a big deal.

For industries that rely on international travel, this is also a big deal.

  • Airlines are relieved that their critical transatlantic routes will return. Pre-Covid, British Airways booked $1 billion in revenue for flights between London Heathrow and New York's JFK airport—the most lucrative route in the world, per Bloomberg.
  • Hospitality: Home rental platform VRBO reported an increase of more than 160% in searches for US vacation homes by foreign travelers since the announcement was made, according to Travel + Leisure.
  • Retailers hope international travelers will give a boost to what's already expected to be a record holiday shopping season. Of all shopping fueled by travel and tourism in 2019, global travelers accounted for 27%, per the International Trade Administration.

Bottom line: The relaxation of the travel ban will mend the US' strained relationship with Europe, which has allowed Americans to visit for months but didn't get reciprocity.

        

TOGETHER WITH ETORO

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GRAB BAG

Key Performance Indicators

New York Times list of marathon runners

New York Times

Stat: On the day following the New York City Marathon, the New York Times's city edition sees a boost in retail sales of nearly 50% over a typical Monday. That's because the paper prints a list of the names and finish times of as many of the marathon's runners as it can, a tradition that began in 1994. About 30,000 people ran this year.

Quote: "Big Bird is a communist."

Arizona State Senator Wendy Rogers, a conservative, weighed in on a tweet by Big Bird that promoted Covid-19 vaccines for kids. And Oscar is clearly a libertarian.

Read: A stunning look inside the fast-food workers' season of rebellion. (Washington Post)

        

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

Starbucks union: Employees at three Buffalo, NY, area Starbucks shops will begin voting on whether to unionize on Wednesday. It'll be closely watched nationwide, as Starbucks remains one of the most famous nonunion companies in the US.

E-IPO: Rivian, considered the pack leader of recent EV startups, could go public this week...and it'll be one to watch. Seeking a valuation of up to $65 billion, Rivian will be in the same league as legacy carmakers Ford ($77b) and GM ($85b). It's looking to raise a mammoth $10 billion in the IPO.

Inflation data: October's Consumer Price Index, which drops Wednesday, is expected to show the biggest increase in prices yet since the pandemic began.

Earnings: We're in the back half of earnings season, but big names are still reporting this week, including PayPal, AMC, Coinbase, Palantir, and Disney. Curious to learn more about AMC's pivot to popcorn.

Everything else:

  • Veterans Day is on Thursday.
  • The COP26 climate conference rolls into its second week.
  • Red Notice, starring Dwayne Johnson, Ryan Reynolds, and Gal Gadot, hits Netflix on Friday.
        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Eight people were killed when a crowd rushed the stage at the Astroworld music festival in Houston Friday night.
  • Marvel's Eternals took in a disappointing $71 million at the domestic box office, but still managed to score the fourth-best weekend of any pandemic-era opening.
  • Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile has hit a record: $149.2 billion.
  • Bomb threats led to evacuations at Columbia and several other Ivy League schools. They were later deemed not credible.

TOGETHER WITH ROUTE

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BREW'S BETS

Hear from biz leaders: On Tuesday and Wednesday, the NYT is interviewing the biggest names in business, from Tim Cook to Meghan Markle, to yes, even Adam Neumann, at the DealBook summit. It's free and virtual—check it out.

Dive back into the week:

  • Shallow dive: The greatest trick play in college football history?
  • Medium dive: How the soup base of a Chinese hot pot is made
  • Deep dive: Ridiculous egg rankings
  • Cannonball: A fun book reflecting on the craziness that was 2020
  • Bonus: Retail Brew's event all about customer experience is coming up on Wednesday. Register here.

GAMES

The Puzzle Section

Turntable: You can make 32 words from the jumble in today's Turntable puzzle. Can you get them all? Play it here, then send it to your coworkers for a little friendly competition.

Leaderboard

The following cities are the top-ranked for which category?

  1. Utrecht, Netherlands
  2. Zwolle, Netherlands
  3. Groningen, Netherlands
  4. Amsterdam, Netherlands
  5. Provincetown, Massachusetts
  6. Copenhagen, Denmark
  7. Sevilla, Spain
  8. Gatineau, Quebec
  9. Longueuil, Quebec
  10. Montreal, Quebec

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ANSWER

Best cities for biking, per the Adventure Cyclist magazine.

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Written by Neal Freyman

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