| | | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | JUDGMENT DAY IN CALIFORNIA — After a campaign that saw his poll numbers trace the rough arc of a bow tie — a thick margin at the beginning and a tight squeeze in the middle before another dramatic divergence — Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM is on track to survive today's recall election if polls hold. — The spread: ~16 points. On the final night of the campaign, FiveThirtyEight's polling average saw 57.4% of voters opposed to the recall, and 41.5% supportive of removing Newsom. The final L.A. Times poll, released Friday, showed opposition to the recall with a 21-point lead. A polling error of that size in an election of this magnitude would be historic. — If Newsom prevails, he will have breathed new life into his own political career while also offering Democrats a potential strategy as they head into the midterm headwinds: tapping into vaccinated voters' frustrations with the ongoing pandemic. — In an election eve rally in Long Beach, President JOE BIDEN hammered that point home, as Jeremy B. White and Alexander Nieves report. "Voting 'no' will be protecting California from Trump Republicans trying to block us from beating this pandemic," Biden said. "We need science. We need courage. We need leadership. We need Gavin Newsom." POLICY-PALOOZA: THE CLIMATE FIGHT HEATS UP — Reconciliation is a little bit like a 1980s battle royale. Back then a staple of the old WWF was to throw 20 wrestlers together to fight simultaneously. It was hard to keep up with all the skirmishes. You might be watching ANDRE THE GIANT pummell HILLBILLY JIM in the center of the ring and easily miss that KING TONGA was just then tossing THE IRON SHEIK through the ropes and onto the concrete. So it is with the Dems' $3.5 trillion piece of legislation. Fights over health care and taxes — still unresolved — have been the focus, while major policy areas like climate have received little attention. On climate, that's about to change. House committees have now marked up the key pieces of climate policy. And with the Senate's return this week, all eyes will once again be on JOE MANCHIN, the coal-state Democrat who, as chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, is responsible for writing the single most important piece of climate legislation. It's a bill that could determine whether the United States meets an aggressive emissions-reduction target scientists say is needed to avert a global catastrophe (no pressure). Climate policy can be thought of as a math problem. President Biden has committed the U.S. to reducing carbon emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. The whole ballgame for Democrats is putting together a package in reconciliation that achieves as much of that 50% goal as possible. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER recently said that the menu of policies put forward by Democrats, including in BIF, would get the United States to 45%. But there are really only two major policies to watch because together they provide some two-thirds of the carbon reductions in the bill. So while there are a lot of interesting and important side debates about a Civilian Climate Corps, agriculture conservation and even the proposed methane polluter fee, these are the two to keep an eye on: 1) Clean energy tax incentives. Nothing fancy about this: just use the tax code to massively ramp up the use of renewables. There are tax credits for renewable electricity (solar, nuclear), for renewable fuels (biodiesel, clean hydrogen), for getting homes and businesses to run on green energy, for buying electric vehicles so they will be as affordable as gas-powered cars, for electric bicycles and to create a greener workforce. — Biggest concern from progressives: that the House's $235 billion package gets whittled down. — Biggest concern from moderates: The EV tax incentives are not means-tested and can be used by the wealthy to subsidize the purchase of high-end electric cars, a political attack Republicans have been using against vulnerable House Democrats. 2) Clean Electricity Performance Program. To climate policy wonks, this is the big one. The new CEPP would pay utilities that switch to clean energy and penalize utilities that don't. In the House bill the threshold is 4% — utilities get a big check from the government if they increase clean energy by that much each year and they get hit with a fine if they don't. Here's the problem: Manchin (W.Va.), who's in charge of writing the bill, said on CNN on Sunday that he thinks the CEPP is a terrible idea because the switch to clean energy doesn't need a push from the government. "The transition is happening. Now they're wanting to pay companies for what they're already doing," Manchin said. "It makes no sense to me at all for us to take billions of dollars and pay utilities for what they're going to do as the market transitions." The key to getting Manchin on board may run through the United Mine Workers of America, which opposes the CEPP. UMWA President CECIL ROBERTS recently wrote to Manchin saying that his party's climate policies would kill coal and utility jobs in a state that relies on coal for 95% of its electricity and would have "severe impacts on families, communities, and the local and state tax revenues." Mine workers and environmentalists are poised for a big fight over how coal can be accommodated without severely diluting the bill's carbon reduction targets. Other issues: Environmentalists and industry are battling over whether natural gas should be included as a clean energy source in the CEPP. The House version, which progressives love, excluded gas, but the industry hasn't given up the fight. A piece of good news for Dems: House moderates who usually cause trouble for Speaker NANCY PELOSI are generally climate hawks. Reps. STEPHANIE MURPHY (Fla.) and HENRY CUELLAR (Texas) recently wrote a letter saying they want the reconciliation bill fully paid for "with the possible exception of measures to combat climate change." A piece of bad news for Dems: Nobody knows if the CEPP will survive the Byrd rule. RELATED — Schumer insisted Monday that Democrats would pass sweeping climate change provisions via reconciliation — but, as Anthony Adragna notes, "offered no concrete plans for winning over centrists who've expressed reservations." P.S. If you're enjoying these policy deep dives and are a professional who'd like more, consider subscribing to POLITICO Pro. | | A message from Google: Google blocks 100 million phishing attempts every day. To keep hackers out of your inbox, Gmail uses industry-leading technology to automatically detect threats, blocking more than 99.9% of spam, phishing attempts, and malware from ever reaching you. Learn more. | | | Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line and tell us how you think Dems can craft a CEPP that appeases both Manchin and BERNIE SANDERS: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri. GENEALOGIST: BIDEN ANCESTORS OWNED SLAVES — Biden has long played up his Irish roots, but the story of his ancestry is more complicated. Ben Schreckinger dives into that story in a new excerpt from his forthcoming book on the Biden family that includes this previously unreported fact: Some of Biden's paternal ancestors owned enslaved people. "Biden's great-great-great-grandfather, JESSE ROBINETT … enslaved two people in Allegany County, Maryland, in the 1800 census. Another 3rd-great-grandfather, THOMAS RANDLE, enslaved a 14-year-old male in the 1st District of Baltimore County, Maryland, in 1850, [genealogist ALEXANDER BANNERMAN ] said, citing census records and slave schedules, which were separate headcounts of slaves conducted alongside the census in 1850 and 1860. In 1860, census records show that Randle and his family had moved to Baltimore County's 13th District, Bannerman said, and an 1860 slave schedule for the 13th District again shows Randle enslaving a single man. (The spelling of Randle varies in some records, as is common for that period, and the spelling of Robinette, which is Biden's middle name, has changed over time)." It is common for Americans with colonial-era roots to have ancestors who enslaved people, Bannerman told Schreckinger. At the same time, he writes, "Such ties can be especially fraught for a white Democrat who must attract overwhelming support from Black voters to win a national election." The White House did not respond to requests for comment. Ben's book, "The Bidens: Inside the First Family's Fifty-Year Rise to Power," is out Sept. 21 | | | | A message from Google:   Google's Password Checkup detects if any of your saved passwords are weak or have been compromised, and helps you easily change them if needed. | | | BIDEN'S TUESDAY (all times EDT): — 1:10 p.m.: The president will leave Long Beach, Calif., for Denver, arriving at 3:10 p.m. — 4:50 p.m.: Biden will visit the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., delivering remarks about infrastructure, climate, jobs, environmental justice and his agenda at 5:30 p.m. — 7:10 p.m.: Biden will depart Colorado, arriving back at the White House at 10:20 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS' TUESDAY: The VP will speak at a fundraiser for TERRY MCAULIFFE's Virginia gubernatorial campaign at a private home in Great Falls at 7:10 p.m. Principal deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle on Air Force One on the way to Denver. The SENATE is in. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will testify on Afghanistan before the Foreign Affairs Committee at 10 a.m. SEC Chair GARY GENSLER will testify before the Banking Committee at 10 a.m. The HOUSE is out. The Ways and Means, Transportation and Infrastructure, and Homeland Security committees will hold markups on the reconciliation bill at 9 a.m., 10 a.m. and noon, respectively. | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | 
PHOTO OF THE DAY: An honor guard carries the casket of Navy Hospital Corpsman Max Soviak, one of the 13 U.S. service members killed in the suicide blast in Kabul, at the funeral in Milan, Ohio, on Monday, Sept. 13. | Matthew Hatcher/Getty Images | RECONCILIATION BIG TAX MOVES — House Democrats unveiled some pieces of the tax increase for the latest budget bill, WSJ's Richard Rubin reports. — The plan falls way short of progressives' dreams for taxing the rich, writes NYT's Jonathan Weisman. Notably, it also breaks from the Senate Finance Committee's plans. — WSJ's editorial board has some strong feelings about it: "If Republicans don't pound away on this assault on small business, they should retire from politics on grounds of incompetence." THE LATEST — While Manchin and Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) aren't on board with the $3.5 trillion package, Burgess Everett and Marianne Levine write that other Democratic lawmakers are refraining from criticizing the pair because their votes are essential to any movement. "While many members of the caucus weren't enthusiastic about the [infrastructure] bill, they supported it nonetheless, with the understanding that their priorities would be addressed in a second bill," Burgess and Marianne write. "It's now likely that Democrats will miss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's Sept. 15 goal for committees to complete bill text for that budget reconciliation bill, which can evade a GOP filibuster and pass with a simple majority. And progressives' hope to pass the social spending package by Sept. 27, the date Speaker Nancy Pelosi set for the House to take up the bipartisan infrastructure package, increasingly looks like a long shot." QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Asked if he was aligned with Manchin on reconciliation, Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) cracked: 'Are you crazy? Are you trying to get me shot? I'd never, ever want to be aligned with Joe Manchin. My wife would divorce me.'" THE WHITE HOUSE IMMIGRATION FILES — The Biden administration launched a new program Monday to expand efforts to find and reunite migrant families separated at the border during the Trump administration, AP's Ben Fox reports. FOR YOUR RADAR — Australian PM SCOTT MORRISON, Indian PM NARENDRA MODI and Japanese PM YOSHIHIDE SUGA plan to come to Washington on Sept. 24 and meet Biden in person to discuss Covid-19, climate change and more, AP's Darlene Superville reports. CONGRESS FROM CNN REPORTER TO CONGRESSIONAL INVESTIGATOR — POLITICO Pentagon reporter Lara Seligman writes in with a scoop: Rep. MICHAEL MCCAUL (Texas), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is ramping up oversight of the Biden administration's handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal by tapping former CNN reporter RYAN BROWNE as the lead investigator for the minority. Browne worked for CNN from 2015 to 2021, reporting from the Pentagon and countries around the world including Afghanistan, Bahrain and Iraq. From 2011 to 2013, he deployed with the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan as an embedded contractor adviser to the Afghan National Army. He also studied NATO's role in Afghanistan during a stint at the Center for the Study of the President and Congress as director of international security studies. "It is crucial we discover what led to the chaos of the emergency evacuation, and examine the administration's failed efforts to evacuate all American citizens, green card holders, local allies and other vulnerable Afghans fearing reprisals from the Taliban," Browne said in a statement obtained by POLITICO. HEADS UP — The Senate Judiciary Committee announced witnesses for its Wednesday hearing on the LARRY NASSAR sexual abuse scandal: SIMONE BILES, MCKAYLA MARONEY, MAGGIE NICHOLS, ALY RAISMAN, Justice Department I.G. MICHAEL HOROWITZ and FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY. | | A message from Google: Google protects 4 billion devices from malicious sites every day. Safe Browsing, one of Google's many privacy and security protections, is designed to automatically detect threats and can alert you when you might visit a risky site. To make the internet safer for everyone, Google makes this technology free for other companies to use in their browsers. Learn more. | | | POLITICS ROUNDUP RECALL ME MAYBE — It's election day in California. — The L.A. Times' frontpage story this morning highlights Biden's speech in Long Beach: "California, I'm not sure you know it but if you didn't know it, you should," he said. "This is not hyperbole: The eyes of the nation are on California. Because the decision you're about to make isn't just going to have a huge impact on California, it's going to reverberate around the nation. And quite frankly, it's not a joke, around the world." — Mackenzie Mays, Jeremy White and Kevin Yamamura recap "seven of the craziest moments in the California recall campaign this year," from JOHN COX's Kodiak bear stunt to CAITLYN JENNER's turn in the spotlight. ABORTION LATEST — While Florida's legislature drums up its own abortion ban bill, Gov. RON DESANTIS has expressed hesitancy toward a key provision of the Texas law that includes "financial incentives to private citizens who file suit against anyone assisting someone with an abortion," BuzzFeed's Kadia Goba reports. AFGHANISTAN LATEST BLAME GAME — In testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Monday, Blinken blamed the Trump administration for the chaotic end of the U.S. war in Afghanistan, Andrew Desiderio reports. LAUNCHING TODAY — Welcome.US, a new initiative seeking to establish a groundswell of support for welcoming refugees, beginning with those evacuated from Afghanistan. It includes a six-figure ad buy and grants to nonprofits working on resettlement. It's chaired by CECILIA MUÑOZ and JOHN BRIDGELAND, with BARACK and MICHELLE OBAMA, GEORGE W. and LAURA BUSH, and BILL and HILLARY CLINTON serving as honorary co-chairs. TRUMP CARDS STANDING BY HER MAN — Though MELANIA TRUMP has stayed out of the spotlight since Trump's presidency, one adviser said if he runs again in 2024, she will "be right there," Daniel Lippman and Meridith McGraw write. The aide said "she's not going to have her own rallies. But did she ever?" JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THE RALLY ON SATURDAY — A Saturday rally defending rioters arrested during the Capitol insurrection is putting GOP leaders in an uncomfortable position, writes Olivia Beavers : They don't want to be seen as supporting the insurrectionists, but a substantial portion of the GOP base believes the Jan. 6 attack was justified. | | | | HAPPENING WEDNESDAY - POLITICO TECH SUMMIT: Washington and Silicon Valley have been colliding for some time. Has the intersection of tech, innovation, regulation and politics finally reached a tipping point? Join POLITICO for our first-ever Tech Summit to explore the evolving relationship between the power corridors of Washington and the Valley. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Ella Emhoff attended the Met Gala, where the theme this year was "In America: A Lexicon of Fashion." Carolyn Maloney wore a dress calling for passage of the ERA. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez either relished tweaking fellow guests or missed the irony of being at a $35,000-per-ticket event while wearing a designer dress emblazoned on the back with the words "TAX THE RICH." Richard Johnson, the longtime editor of the N.Y. Post's Page Six, is coming out of retirement to write a gossip column for the enemy. Joe Manchin and Sheila Jackson Lee were spotted chatting after the 9/11 ceremony and had people buzzing on Twitter. Suzanne Kianpour of BBC World is "hearing the Taliban is in the market for a lobbyist in DC, offering a lucrative contract." Tucker Carlson had what Paul Farhi called the "chyron of the year": "NICKI MINAJ: COUSIN'S TESTICLES BECAME SWOLLEN." (Context here.) | 
| MOOCH NOT SALT-Y ABOUT LOW GOP TURNOUT: Anthony Scaramucci's SALT investor conference is light on Republicans this year. Instead, the short-lived Trump comms director drew a lineup of prominent Democrats, including Eric Adams, Ron Klain and Reps. Mikie Sherrill (N.J.) and Ro Khanna (Calif.). Also making appearances: H.R. McMaster and Gen. John Kelly and Jeb Bush. In the past, GOP presidential hopefuls would have been sucking up to a GOP fundraiser like Scaramcucci at his Wall Street-heavy conference. But now they "don't want to be anywhere near me," he told Playbook. Instead of dwelling on the poor GOP turnout, Scaramucci compared some of the Trump-loving potential 2024 hopefuls to types of soap — specifically, Trump detergents. (Bear with him here.) According to the Mooch: DeSantis "is completely in the tank. If Trump is laundry detergent [he's] using four cups of Trump, okay?" … Nikki Haley is on-again, off-again: She "uses two cups of Trump on Sunday, no cups on Monday, five cups on Wednesday." … Mike Pompeo is a smarter version of Trump: "He's like Tide [for] bright colors." … Mike Pence is bleach: "However white you thought Trump was, Pence is whiter." MEDIA MOVE — Ryan McCarthy is joining Vox as editorial director for politics, policy and society. He previously did investigative reporting for ProPublica and was editor-in-chief of Vice News. Announcement STAFFING UP — The White House announced several new nominations, including Rostin Behnam as Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair and commissioner, Kristin Johnson and Christy Goldsmith Romero as CFTC commissioners (more from Bloomberg), Reta Jo Lewis as president and chair of the Export-Import Bank (more from the WSJ), Jed Kolko as undersecretary of Commerce for economic affairs, Maria "Marisa" Lago as undersecretary of Commerce for international trade, Arthur Jemison as assistant HUD secretary for public and Indian housing, Alanna McCargo as president of the Government National Mortgage Association and Elaine Trevino as chief agricultural negotiator at the USTR. TRANSITIONS — Eli Woerpel is joining Apex Government Consulting as a founding partner with Jim Joice. He previously was deputy chief of staff for Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.). … Andre Barnett is now managing director of tax policy at Accenture. He previously was senior tax counsel for the Senate Finance Committee. … Londyn Marshall is now deputy director of government affairs at Carbon180. She most recently was national finance director for Jennifer Carroll Foy's Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and is a Pete Buttigieg and Planned Parenthood Action Fund alum. … … Sharon Yang is joining Building Back Together as press secretary. She most recently was comms director on Jennifer Carroll Foy's gubernatorial campaign in Virginia, and is a Jon Ossoff and Gina Ortiz Jones alum. … The Wireless Infrastructure Association is adding Sasha Galbreath and Marshall Miller as public affairs managers. Galbreath previously was at Clyde Group, and Miller previously was at DDC Public Affairs. … LSN Partners has announced a major expansion, with new additions including Tom Quinn and Jose Fuentes as partners, Neil Ohlhausen as a senior associate, Elliot "Lee" Sander as senior adviser of transportation and infrastructure, and Mike Hernández as comms partner. WEEKEND WEDDING — Brianna Manzelli, comms director for Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), and James Huddleston, senior adviser at the FAA, held a vow renewal ceremony and marriage celebration at Castle Hill on the Crane Estate. The two got married last September but postponed the celebration with family and friends due to the pandemic. Pic … SPOTTED: Jake Wilkins, Valerie Chicola, Igor Bobic, Caroline Anderegg, Adrian Arnakis, Crystal Tully, Chance Costello, Robert Arnakis, Summer Mersinger, Patrick Fuchs, Bobby Puckett, Diop Harris and Alexis DeJarnette. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Devin O'Malley, a comms adviser to Mike Pence and Glenn Youngkin, and Amanda O'Malley, director of corporate memberships at the Republican Governors Association, welcomed Clara Marie O'Malley on Sept. 7. She came in at 7 lbs, 6 oz, and joins big brother Jack. Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was Sunday): AP's Ashraf Khalil HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis … Bloomberg's Jennifer Jacobs … NYT's Matt Flegenheimer and Tim Arango … Axios' Hans Nichols … MSNBC's Alex Korson … Russell Berman of The Atlantic … Rachel Bissex of Rep. Ken Buck's (R-Colo.) office … Angela Grossfeld … Ryan Collins of Lake Partners Strategy Consultants … Nick Magallanes … Strauss Media Strategies' Richard Strauss … Elliot Berke of Berke Farah (5-0) … Jolyn Cikanek of Enact MI … NBC's Scott Foster … Luke Bolar … Rey Benitez … Jillian Hughes of Mental Health America … Ofirah Yheskel … Josh Gordon … Brittany Parker … Sandeep Prasanna of the Jan. 6 Select Committee … Paula Dobriansky … Trent Duffy … Eden Gordon-Hill … John Ladd … Ben Merkel … Bloomberg's Katie Boyce … Dave Dogan … Just the News' Sophie Mann … Brian Greer … Amy Kauffman … Howlie Davis … Joyce Brayboy … Ethan Stackpole … Paul McCarthy … Courtney Flantzer … Julia Cohen … Victoria Esser of Finsbury Glover Hering … Jay Preciado Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. 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