News : POLITICO California Playbook: POLL: Recall would FAIL today — SCOOP: STEYER polling for recall — PRINCE HARRY joins SILICON VALLEY firm

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

POLITICO California Playbook: POLL: Recall would FAIL today — SCOOP: STEYER polling for recall — PRINCE HARRY joins SILICON VALLEY firm — STEINBERG won’t be AG, but who will?

Mar 24, 2021

By Carla Marinucci, Jeremy B. White, Graph Massara and Richard Tzul

THE BUZZ — RECALL MADNESS: There's some good news and bad news for Californians who want to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The good news: The recall campaign has celebrated what looks like a victory in delivering 2.1 million voter signatures — almost certainly enough to qualify an election this year.

The bad news: The attempt to oust Newsom would fail if it went before voters today, a new poll released Tuesday shows.

THE TAKEAWAYS: Pollster Adam Probolsky and Around the Capitol's Scott Lay released the poll, which surveyed 900 California voters between March 13-16, and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. Some trends to watch:

— Newsom's fav/unfav rating: The governor is still above water. Among all voters, Newsom has a 42 percent favorable vs. 39 percent unfavorable rating. The gap is even bigger among voters likely to vote in the recall election — 47 percent favorable to 37 percent unfavorable, which Probolsky notes is "not really typically a rich environment for canceling someone, or for getting them unelected."

— Recall, pass or fail: Forty-six percent of all voters said they'd vote no on the recall, versus 40 percent who'd vote yes. Among likely voters, again, there was an even bigger gap: 52 percent yes to 34 percent no, the poll shows.

— Gender gap: Forty-four percent of men said they'd vote yes to the recall, but just 37 percent of women said the same — even though recall proponents have said half of those who've signed petitions are women.

— Ethnicity: Latino voters seemed the most receptive to the recall in California, with 45 percent saying they back it. And it was downhill from there: 39 percent of white voters were in favor of the recall, as well as 29 percent of Asian voters and 19 percent of Black voters. GOP strategist Luis Alvarado said that's a warning sign: "Either side would be guilty of political malpractice if they do not have a robustly funded [and] well staffed Latino strategy behind this race."

— Geography: The Central Valley is the recall backers' best bet currently — the only region of California to back it at 52 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: California Democrats enjoy a 22 percent advantage in voter registration this year, and "there are at least 10 Democratic majority counties,'' including Los Angeles (5.8 million voters) and Alameda (962,000), Probolsky and Lay noted. By contrast, there are just two GOP-majority counties in the state: Lassen (15,500 voters) and Modoc (5,000).

That means the recall backers — having just done all that hard work of collecting signatures — have a lot of really, really hard work ahead of them.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning and happy National Equal Pay Day.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: A roster of California employers have signed on to first partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom's Equal Pay Pledge, including Adobe, Blue Shield of California, Genentech, Nextdoor, Edison International, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District and Twitter, POLITICO has learned.

"By signing, they agree to: conduct an annual company-wide gender pay analysis; review hiring promotion processes and procedures to reduce bias and structural barriers; and promote best practices that will close the pay gap to ensure equity for all workers," according to the first partner's office.

Bottom line: "California women lose a combined total of $78.6 billion each year because of the wage gap — dollars that could help pay for basic necessities at a time when women have lost 5.4 million jobs nationwide."

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Those blaming the Biden administration for this situation are not serious about addressing the issues at the border. … As imperfect as this process is, we must recognize how much more humane it is than the alternative. The choice of the last administration was to turn our backs on these children and send them back to the gangs, criminals and cartels waiting for them on the other side of the border and back in their home countries." — Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), commenting on recently released video and photographs of children in the custody of U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Newsom strategist Sean Clegg @CleggSean: "Tom Steyer does not want to be the cynical, vulture-investing billionaire who bet against Democratic unity so Trump Republicans can take CA. Like President Joe I welcome @TomSteyer 'back into the fold' @StopRepRecall."

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

JOIN US ON CLUBHOUSE — Tonight! The latest on California's school reopening efforts. POLITICO California education expert Mackenzie Mays and California editor Kevin Yamamura explain where things stand on school reopening in the nation's most populous state ... Wednesday, March 24 at 4:30 p.m. PDT.

SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TO JOIN AN IMPORTANT CONVERSATION : Power dynamics are shifting in Washington and across the country, and more people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that all politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. "The Recast" is a new twice-weekly newsletter that breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics, policy, and power in America. Get fresh insights, scoops, and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country, and hear from new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out on this new newsletter, SUBSCRIBE NOW . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.

TOP TALKERS

POLITICO SCOOP — Steyer polls the Newsom recall — offering himself as an alternative, by POLITICO's Christopher Cadelago, Sam Stein and Carla Marinucci: The billionaire environmental activist and erstwhile presidential hopeful has included his own name among the list of possible contenders to succeed Newsom, according to three people familiar with the recent survey.

Steyer's decision to poll himself as a possible replacement does suggest he's entertained the possibility. At a minimum, it is one of the few concrete examples of a Democrat weighing the opportunities and landscape of a post-Newsom California. Antonio Villaraigosa, Newsom's primary opponent in 2018, sidestepped questions about the recall, and has taken no formal steps to test his viability.

RECALL AND MORE — " QAnon now pushes alarming conspiracy myths targeting China and Jewish people," by the LA Times' Anita Chabria: "New world order theories will likely play a role if the state holds a recall election for Gov. Gavin Newsom this fall. Newsom is already being featured in recall-related memes that portray him as a 'puppet' of the Chinese Communist Party and complicit in the global takeover. At rallies, he has been portrayed as Hitler and called a tyrant."

UBI? — "Oakland launches one of the largest guaranteed income programs in the country. Here's how it will work," by the SF Chronicle's Sarah Ravani: "Through the pilot program, residents will receive $500 a month for at least 18 months with no strings attached, Mayor Libby Schaaf said at a Tuesday news conference."

ROYAL GIG — " Prince Harry Is Taking on a New Job Title: Chief Impact Officer at BetterUp," by WSJ's Chip Cutter: "The Duke of Sussex will become chief impact officer of BetterUp Inc., the fast-growing coaching and mental health firm, the company plans to announce Tuesday."

GRANNY HERO — "After raising nearly $900,000, woman attacked in S.F. to donate back to Asian American community ," by the SF Chronicle's Michael Williams: "The campaign has raised about $897,000 as of Tuesday, with an original goal of $50,000. More than 30,000 people have donated."

PORN PLAY — "Katie Hill's revenge porn suit says all you need to know about privacy laws,'' by Jessica Levinson via MSNBC: "When it comes down to it, the law protects media from censorship before individual privacy rights."

ROAD TO RECALL

AD WARS: Facebook ad tracker: Newsom launches anti-recall ads, by POLITICO's Zach Montellaro: Newsom kicked off a formal campaign opposing the effort to recall him, dropping over $150,000 in Facebook ads in a week to raise more funds and sign on supporters.

National Republicans have also started to roll out recall ads, but on a much smaller scale thus far. The Republican Governors Association launched new ads on the page Fire Gavin Newsom, spending just short of $3,000 in ads in the same time frame.

GROWING SUPPORT: California agricultural giants and water war combatants Stewart and Lynda Resnick have channeled $250,000 toward fighting the Newsom recall, per a new filing; the two had previously donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to Newsom's statewide campaigns. Another $100,000 came from Motor Vehicle Software Corp. chief Kelly Kimball and his wife, Carla Kimball; the company spent about $165,000 lobbying Sacramento last session. A reminder here that Newsom's allies face no limits on donations.

REFRESHER — "How does a California recall election work? It's complicated," by the Sac Bee's Lara Korte.

GAVINLAND

SO WHO WILL IT BE? — Steinberg told he will not be named California attorney general, by POLITICO's Carla MarinuccI: Sacramento has been abuzz this week about speculation that Newsom would reveal his choice to fill the post vacated by Xavier Becerra, who has now assumed his new job as President Joe Biden's Health and Human Services secretary. Becerra replaced Kamala Harris, who moved on to become U.S. senator and now vice president.

SHOT IN THE ARM — Gavin Newsom feared a vaccine nightmare. So he outsourced California's rollout, by POLITICO's Victoria Colliver: Newsom, facing a recall threat and under immense pressure to get the doses out quickly, turned to Blue Shield soon after vaccination problems surfaced, suggesting he deemed the task of rapidly vaccinating tens of millions too complex for government to handle.

— "Forget the recall, California's EDD mess poses bigger challenge to Gov. Gavin Newsom," by the Sac Bee's Gil Duran: "Nearly six months after Newsom boldly promised to clear a backlog of 1 million unemployment claims at the EDD, the problem continues to worsen."

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

IT'S WORKING — "California isn't seeing COVID-19 spikes like New York and Florida. Can we keep it up?" by the LA Times' Luke Money: "Over the last week, the state has reported an average of 2,766 new coronavirus cases per day, a 35% decrease from two weeks ago, data compiled by The Times show.'"

— "Despite months of alarm, many O.C. Latinos are still unvaccinated," by the LA Times' Hannah Fry: "Just over 3% of Latinos in the county have received at least one dose of the vaccine, compared with 10% of white residents, according to county statistics."

— " Parents may be in for a rude awakening as they start to return to work and seek child care," by the OC Register's Linh Tat, Hayley Munguia, Theresa Walker and Brian Whitehead.

MADAM VP

— "Kamala Harris' campaign trail gun rhetoric meets Biden's reality," by CNN's Jasmine Wright and Maegan Vazquez: "It's unclear what Harris' role now is in pushing Biden to adopt policies closer to those that were once her own."

CAMPAIGN MODE

SCHOOL BOARD DRAMA— "The strange and terrible saga of Alison Collins and her ill-fated Tweets," by Mission Local's Joe Eskenazi: "The solidarity among San Francisco's political class in calling for school board vice president Alison Collins to resign is stunning in its damn-near unanimity."

POST-THURMOND? "Leyva to run for California schools chief in 2026,'' by POLITICO's Mackenzie Mays: State Sen. Connie Leyva, chair of the Senate Education Committee, will run for state Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2026, she told POLITICO on Tuesday.

TRUMP UNIVERSITY — " McCarthy hires Trump staffer to lead political operation," by the Hill's Mychael Schnell: "[Rep. Kevin]McCarthy is leading efforts for Republicans to win back the House majority in 2022 and the hiring of [Brian] Jack means McCarthy keeps a close connection to Trump and in particular, his base."

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— "The roots of anti-Asian violence can be found in California history," by the LA Times' Michael Hiltzik: "California history bristles with violent attacks on Chinese individuals, including an outbreak of lynchings of Chinese residents in Los Angeles in 1871, and on Chinese neighborhoods in San Francisco and Los Angeles."

WHAT'S THE ANSWER? — "We Must Confront Anti–Asian American Hate Crimes," by Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Hoover Institution's Lanhee J. Chen in the Atlantic.

THE BOULDER EFFECT — "California bill aims to jumpstart 'microstamps' on handguns ," by the AP's Don Thompson: "New legislation would expand the law to include weapons used by law enforcement, which are currently exempt. The thinking is that forcing police officers into the marketplace would prompt manufacturers to improve technology so they can sell the weapons to members of law enforcement."

— "Unions would gain power under a bill backed by Democrats. What does that mean for California?" by McClatchy's Kate Irby: "Unions already feel strong in the public sector, but they've lost influence among private companies. That's led to union advocates to want to push for more action in the private sector before turning to the public sector, according to Steve Smith, spokesman for the California Labor Federation."

— "Could these bills help California build more affordable housing?" by CalMatters' Nigel Duara: "Duplexes and small apartment buildings would spring up from single-family lots. Public housing projects, effectively stifled since the 1950s, would dot the landscape of the state's larger cities. Housing developments would emerge in the carcasses of vacant strip malls and abandoned big-box stores."

LANDMARK MOVE — "California may end 'spousal rape' distinction in punishment," by the AP's Don Thompson: "California is one of 11 states that still distinguish between spousal rape and rape. "

— "Politically connected appointees win confirmation to California medical watchdog board," by the SF Chronicle's Alexei Koseff: "Consumer Watchdog, which is in a battle with doctors over the monetary limit for medical malpractice settlements, argued that filling the board with former presidents of an organization that lobbies for doctors would be contrary to its oversight mission."

— "Waiting for California's new COVID unemployment payment? You may have to be patient," by the Sac Bee's David Lightman.

FEDERAL WINDFALL — "How Will More Than $1 Billion in New Aid Be Spent in OC? And When Will the Public Get to Give Input?" by the Voice of OC's Nick Gerda.

— "The Supreme Court should side with California farmworker organizers in this case," by the LA Times editorial board: "If the court rules against the regulation, it would not only be a blow to the rights of some California workers to organize a union, but it could also have far-reaching impacts on other parties' access to private property, including health and safety inspectors."

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— "Facebook accused of taking money for ads to fake people after disabling 1.3 billion fake accounts," by the Mercury News' Ethan Baron: Advertising analysis firm Pathmatics reported that the Census Bureau in the first six months of last year put more than $51 million, or 61% of its digital-advertising budget, into Facebook."

— "Class-action suit against Facebook for selling personal information allowed to go forward," by the SF Chronicle's Bob Egelko: "The suit, filed in San Jose, involved Facebook's former practice of leaving "cookie" tracking attachments operating after a user logged off. The cookies charted the user's visits to other websites, which, according to the suit, were then compiled by Facebook and sold to advertisers to generate revenue."

GOOGLE THIS — Biden needs 'clean break' on antitrust after FTC's Google failure, activists say, by POLITICO's Leah Nylen: Citing POLITICO's reporting on the FTC's 2013 decision not to sue Google, the groups accused Washington's Obama-era antitrust enforcers of displaying poor judgment and failing to grasp the threat that the search giant posed to competition.

— "Jack Dorsey sells an NFT of his first tweet for $2.9 million, says the money will go to charity," by Steven Melendez for Fast Company.

— "Tesla's Autopilot Technology Faces Fresh Scrutiny," by NYT's Neal E. Boudette: "Federal officials are looking into a series of recent accidents involving Teslas that either were using Autopilot or might have been using it. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration confirmed last week that it was investigating 23 such crashes."

HOLLYWOODLAND

TOXIC TAKEOFF — "Ellen DeGeneres Loses 1 Million Viewers After Apologies for Toxic Workplace," by the NY Times' John Koblin: "'The Ellen DeGeneres Show,' a sturdy daytime hit, has had a steep ratings decline since the host addressed accusations by former staff members that led to firings and an internal investigation."

— "Bob Iger on Life After Disney: "I'm Not Retiring. I Can't Possibly Do That,'" by the Hollywood Reporter's Alex Weprin.

BOOK REVIEW — "Why Did Los Angeles Become a Cultural Mecca in the Early 1970s? " — Madeleine Brand in the NYT reviews Ron Brownstein's new book, "Rock Me on the Water."

CANNABIS COUNTRY

— "San Diego's push for cannabis equity is encouraging; but policy makers have a lot of work ahead," by the San Diego Union-Tribune's Charles T. Clark.

MIXTAPE

STRIKE UP THE BAND — "California changes course again, will allow bands, drumline," by the Mercury News' Evan Webeck.

— " He was arrested for sexual assault in Yosemite. Investigators now think there are more victims," by the Fresno Bee's Joshua Tehee.

LOOKING FOR LOVE — "California's gray wolf makes it all the way to Fresno County — as far south as he has been seen," by the SF Chronicle's Kurtis Alexander.

— "Attack witnessed on Zoom leads deputies to bodies of two stabbing victims in California," by NBC News' Wilson Wong.

WEIRDNESS IN LA — "The Curious Case of the Cinnamon Toast Crunch Box," by NYT's Ezra Marcus.

— "A property manager asked SFPD to move homeless — while offering officers discounts on apartments," by the SF Business Journal's Laura Waxmann.

— "Covid vaccine used on apes at San Diego zoo trialled on mink ," by the Guardian's Patrick Greenfield.

TRANSITIONS

— Samantha Schwab will be an MBA candidate at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. She most recently was deputy press secretary for former Vice President Mike Pence.

— FORMER BECERRA CHIEF JUMPS TO FEROX: Ferox Strategies has hired Debra Dixon, a former longtime aide to new HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, away from her previous firm, TwinLogic Strategies, where she lobbied since 2016.

— Rricha Mathur deCant is joining Sen. Alex Padilla's (D-Calif.) office as counsel, focusing on immigration and homeland security policy. She previously was legislative counsel to Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.).

BIRTHDAYS

Steve Ballmer … Uber's Kyle Jameson

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