Please send your tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com MARS POPULATION SET TO EXPLODE: You wait all decade for a space bus, and then three come at once. Of the 20 or so earthly objects that have reached the surface or orbit of Mars since 1971, only a handful are still operating, but all that is set to change over the next week. A United Arab Emirates' orbiter (think satellite) reaches Mars orbit on Tuesday, China's combo orbiter-rover is due Wednesday, while NASA's rover is expected Feb. 18, and will soon after attempt to land, " the first leg in a U.S.-European effort to bring Mars samples to Earth in the next decade." The Chinese vehicle will attempt a landing in May. DEMOCRACY DENIED Haiti, Myanmar, Russia, the United States, Hong Kong and Ethiopia are an unlikely grouping of countries: but they've all faced complex challenges to democratic rule in recent weeks. In one it's an out-and-out coup (Myanmar), in others an insurrection (Haiti and the United States). In Hong Kong an international treaty — the Sino-British Declaration protecting democracy until 2047 — is violated, in Russia the opposition leader jailed, and in Ethiopia it's armed conflict over a disputed election. What all six examples show is democracy denied or poisoned, and struggling to breathe. Increasingly fingers have been pointed at China's campaign to make the world safe for non-democracy (the International Republican Institute has a new report on Chinese Communist Party tactics here). President Joe Biden isn't mincing words: on Sunday, he said that after 25 hours of private meetings in recent years with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, he's confident Xi "doesn't have a democratic 'small D' bone in his body." The problem is bigger than China: Freedom House documents in a new report that at least 31 governments are working in 79 countries to physically repress democracy activists: "reaching beyond national borders to silence dissent," including in the U.S. and U.K. The chorus urging democracies to band together is loud. The core problem in recent years was that they lacked effective U.S. leadership to force the issue, a point underscored by the passing of George Shultz, the former U.S secretary of State who did so much in the 1980s to provide both the vision and vehicles for the last great tectonic shift in global power. But even with a Biden administration that prizes alliances, democracies lack an organizing forum that fits the post-Cold War era, and there's no emerging consensus on what it should be. There's already an Alliance of Democracies non-profit (Joe Biden was a founding member of its election integrity commission), and an Alliance for Multilateralism (democracy isn't a membership criteria). Boris Johnson is pushing for an expanded G-7 that includes India, South Korea and Australia, Biden wants to host a summit of democracies (but who to invite?), while NATO is running PR campaigns arguing it's more than a military alliance. SMALL-D DEMOCRATS GET ORGANIZED-ISH The US has proposed the first summit between the leaders of the "Quad," Japanese media reported on Sunday. Conceived as a China containment forum, and made up of the U.S., India, Japan and Australia, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said last week that the White House sees the Quad as "a foundation upon which to build substantial American policy in the Indo-Pacific region." 60,000 protestors in Yangon: "We don't want military dictatorship," they chanted. While internet access was cut and violence was mostly avoided over the weekend, the coup leaders Monday warned they would use force against protesters. There's no news on Aung Sung Suu Kyi. Baltics vs. Beijing — Lithuania, Estonia snub Xi's eastern summit: President Xi Jinping's annual effort to strengthen its ties with 17 Eastern European countries is stumbling this year. Baltic countries — keen to signal to Washington their preference for democratic alliances, thanks to Russian aggression on their doorstep — are sending only lower level representatives to Tuesday's summit. A spokeswoman for Estonia's new Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told POLITICO that they prefer "to address China via EU common policies," rather than risk a divide and conquer approach from China. Brussels vs Moscow: The EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell bombed badly on Friday when he tried to play nice with the Kremlin. WHAT'S THE MATTER WITH HAITI? Prime Minister Joseph Jouthe said Sunday that 23 people have been arrested — including a supreme court justice and police inspector — for allegedly plotting to overthrow President Jovenel Moïse. It's not so simple: Moïse's term ended Sunday, and he's ruled by presidential decree for nearly a year after suspending most parliamentarians and all mayors from exercising their powers. He also wants to expand his constitutional powers in an April referendum. Moïse argues that he wasn't sworn in for a year after a chaotic 2016 election, and that his term therefore runs to 2022. The U.S. State Department agrees but isn't writing any blank checks: "The Haitian people deserve the opportunity to elect their leaders and restore Haiti's democratic institutions," said State Department spokesman Ned Price. ECUADOR — PRESIDENTIAL VOTE GOES TO RUN-OFF : Socialist candidate Andres Arauz clearly led first-round voting but fell well short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a second round of voting Apr. 11. Indigenous leader Yaku Pérez and conservative banker Guillermo Lasso are neck-and-neck in the race for the second spot in the run-off, BBC reported. BIDEN MEETS WORLD NO IRAN PROGRESS: The U.S. won't lift sanctions on Iran as bait to get the Iranian government back to the nuclear negotiating table, President Biden said Sunday, while Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told CNN that it was the U.S. that left the table, so the heavy lifting is now on Biden. HOW TO CHARM A U.S. PRESIDENT: Jack Blanchard, founding author of POLITICO's London Playbook, dives into how to forge a strong personal bond with the occupant of the White House, based on the British prime ministers who did it best. Article | Podcast U.S. TO OBSERVE U.N. HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL: The U.S. withdrew from this fledgling Geneva-based U.N. committee in 2018, which has been dogged by claims of human rights hypocrisy since its creation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken today called the body "flawed" but said the U.S. would rejoin as an observer. GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS BY THE NUMBERS — GLOBAL GROWTH: The IMF is now cautiously predicting 5.5 percent global GDP growth in 2021 (up from 5.2 percent in their previous forecast), on the back of vaccine approvals in countries that make up two-thirds of global GDP. And yet, "there is a great deal of uncertainty about this forecast," said Gita Gopinath, who leads the Fund's research department. Ireland's distorted economic numbers: Ireland repeatedly appears in lists as one of the five richest countries on the planet, but a new report from its Patrick Honohan, Ireland's former central bank governor, says it's not even in the top 10 in Europe . That's because "Ireland's GDP is principally distorted by the presence of more than 1,500 multinationals, among them most of the world's top tech and pharma firms. Ireland is also the world's top hub for aviation leasing." The companies book profits in Ireland, though the profit-generating activity takes place elsewhere. Ireland is also reporting its "traditional unemployment rate" at 5.8 percent, but when all those benefiting from the country's "Pandemic Unemployment Payment" are included, unemployment rises to 25 percent. Luxembourg tax haven under the spotlight: The country that routinely tops European rich lists, and which the EU itself has slammed for its systems of tax evasion, is now the subject of the OpenLux leaks, a new investigation from the Organized crime and corruption reporting project (OCCRP). EVERY DAY THROWS NEW COVID, AND NOW EBOLA, CHALLENGES THE GOOD — Delaying vaccine second dose saves lives, UK study shows: Anthony Fauci isn't convinced though.
— Bangladesh the latest developing country to start vaccinations THE BAD — U.K. coronavirus variant is doubling its prevalence among confirmed U.S. infections every week and a half. THE UGLY — South Africa is suspending a planned rollout of AstraZeneca's vaccine, because it says new data showed it rarely gave protection against mild to moderate infections caused by the country's dominant coronavirus variant.
— DR Congo announces resurgence of Ebola. The news comes three months after authorities declared the end of the country's previous outbreak, AFP reported. CLIMATE RISK DISCLOSURE — BIG FINANCE FUMES AT THREAT OF REGULATION: Banks are fond of telling us how much they're committed to fighting climate change, but they're also committed to fighting the U.S. government telling them how to do it. Globally, banks face a range of approaches from nudges ( Japan and Australia) to deep disclosure requirements (EU), and American banks want to avoid the latter, Zach Warmbrodt reports. A "Sustainability Yearbook" from S&P Global reports more than 7,000 companies are voluntarily disclosing their impact. JOBS RECOVERY SPOTLIGHT THE $2 TRILLION DOLLAR QUESTION — WHERE WILL BIDEN'S CLIMATE CASH GO? President Joe Biden wants good-paying union jobs as a top outcome, but has also promised 40 percent of the $2 trillion he's aiming to spend on climate change will go to disadvantaged American communities. It's not clear where the money is coming from, let alone where it's going, POLITICO's climate expert Zack Colman tells me. More here. FLATLINING JOBS NUMBER POINT TO 2021 HOUSING CRISIS: Spending most of your money on rent is incompatible with long-term unemployment, but that's what millions of renters are facing in 2021. ACCELERATING AUTOMATION RISKS BIDEN'S MIDDLE-CLASS DREAM: 43 percent of American businesses anticipate reducing their workforce due to an integration of technology (more in the Global Translations podcast ). In the face of that shake-up, just $345 million (out of $5 trillion in economic stimulus in 2020) has been allocated to workforce development, and it's spread across 43 different programs. There's broad consensus that these efforts are inadequate, uncoordinated and underfunded. More from Eleanor Mueller. BRAIN FOOD — TIPPING IS A LEGACY OF SLAVERY: America's service staff are virtually alone around the world in relying so heavily on tips to generate most of their income. This isn't just a way to encourage and reward extra effort, explains Michelle Alexander (author of The New Jim Crow). It started as a post-Civil War mechanism to undercut Black incomes, and now allows people to be paid according to their race and looks, and puts women (70 percent of waiters) in especially unfair positions. The federal minimum wage for tipped workers is $2.13 an hour. GLOBETROTTERS UN — COP26 CLIMATE DAY: 140 countries have registered for a briefing today from Secretary General Antonio Guterres and U.K. climate chief Alok Sharma, who will outline the U.K. four-plank plan to get the world back on track to delivering the Paris Agreement: "emissions reductions; adaptation; finance; enhanced international collaboration," a U.K. spokesperson told Global Translations. Spoiler alert: national governments should expect the U.K. to ask them to do a lot of virtual negotiation in coming months. AMBASSADOR GUESSING GAME IS GO! Now that Biden has around half of his Cabinet confirmed, the rumor mill on ambassador postings is beginning to churn at a fast rate. The latest case study — a flurry of Twitter love for Michael Carpenter, head of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, who the Polish twittersphere suspected as Biden's nominee as ambassador to Warsaw. Carpenter's firm yet cryptic squashing of the rumors has Global Translations wondering if he hopes to be posted to Brussels (home of EU, NATO and Belgian ambassadorships) instead. h/t David Herszenhorn. Who do you hear, or hope, will be appointed to key posts around the world? Let me know at rheath@politico.com BLOOMBERG AND KERRY AS CLIMATE DYNAMIC DUO: Now that John Kerry (for Biden) and Mike Bloomberg (U.N.) are now both global climate envoys, I asked you Friday: which one is Batman and which one is Robin? Dylan Riddle , corporate comms chief at the Institute of International Finance, wrote in: "Wouldn't Bloomberg and Mark Carney be more of Robin and Batman as they're both U.N. Special Envoys? I guess that makes Kerry Superman." OECD — WE MAY HAVE A WINNER WEDNESDAY: The smart money is in on a Wednesday update from Christopher Sharrock , the U.K.'s Permanent Representative to the OECD, who is in charge of finding consensus among the club's 37 members on who should lead them for the next five years. WTO — WE ALMOST HAVE A WINNER: The Biden administration is backing Nigerian-American dual national Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, to be the first woman and African to head the World Trade Organization . Okonjo-Iweala is the African Union's Covid-19 special envoy and she chaired the board of Gavi, the vaccine alliance from 2016-2020. Once Nigeria's finance minister and a long-time World Bank official, she is also co-chair of The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. The upshot: Okonjo-Iweala's CV is so long, it would itself cause deforestation if you printed it. The other finalist candidate, South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee withdrew Friday. The WTO needs this : Brazil's Roberto Azevêdo stepped down as director-general in August, a year before his term expired. Okonjo-Iweala could start as soon as a special session of the WTO General Council is called. The next scheduled session is March 1. Thanks to editor Ben Pauker | 
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