| Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on February 8, 2021 2021-02-08 Last trading week ended with the most important data on the US labor market, which as a rule, are published on the first Friday of each month. In this article, we will summarize the results of this significant event for the world financial markets, and also try to predict the future direction of the main currency pair of the Forex market. According to the US Department of Employment, in January, the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sectors of the US economy was slightly weaker than the forecast value of 50 thousand and in fact amounted to 49,000. As for the average hourly wage, this important indicator grew worse than expected, which was reduced to 0.3%, and the actual wage growth in January was 0.2% in the states. However, the unemployment data pleased investors as it turned out to be surprisingly very good. It was expected that the unemployment rate would remain at the previous level of 6.7%, but the data for January were much stronger, and the indicator came out at 6.3%. Given that both Non-farm Payrolls report and wage growth were slightly worse than forecast values, and the unemployment rate showed a significant decline, in general, the data on the US labor market could not be considered negative for the US currency, but the market regarded it differently. Weekly 
Taking into account the previous, almost weekly, growth of the US dollar, as well as the last trading day of the outgoing week, investors began to take profits on purchases of "green," which led to a corrective pullback of the main currency pair of the Forex market, which still managed to finish the trading week significantly above the psychological level of 1.2000, at 1.2043. In addition to the expected profit-taking and not so unambiguous US labor reports, from a technical point of view, the blue line of the Ichimoku Kijun indicator played a very important role, which provided the quote with quite strong support and provoked a significant rebound from the lows of 1.1952. This development of events was quite possible to assume. It is not for nothing that in almost every review of a particular currency pair, I pay attention to the Ichimoku indicator, or rather to the boundaries of its cloud, as well as to the Tenkan and Kijun lines. In the author's personal opinion, this indicator is most effective on the weekly and daily charts, but on the four-hour chart, for example, there are quite a lot of false signals and noise. Going back to the results of the past week, it turned out to be extremely ambiguous against the US dollar. About half of the main competitors strengthened, and the other half showed a weakening against the US currency during the week's trading. The euro also fell into the second category, with the pair losing 0.71% in trading on February 1-5. If we summarize the description of the weekly EUR/USD timeframe, then the last candle with a long lower shadow and a confident close above 1.2000 leaves more questions than answers about the price direction of the quote at the auction of the current five-day period. To continue the downward trend, the bears on the pair need to update the previous lows at 1.1952 and close trading on February 8-12 below this level and, accordingly, under the Kijun line. In turn, the players on the increase in the course of the task is radically different. Euro bulls need to return the rate above the price zone of 1.2050-1.2060, pass up the strong mark of 1.2100 and finish the current week above the red line of Tenkan, which passes at 1.2150. Given the strength of this technical level, as well as the very difficult mark of 1.2100, it will not be easy to do this. But when was everything easy, clear, and simple in the market? Daily 
On the daily chart of the main currency pair, as a result of Friday's growth, a reversal candle signal "Bullish absorption" appeared. At the same time, the pair returned above the 50th fibo level from the growth of 1.1601-1.2349, and also closed trading on February 5 above the black 89 exponential moving average. This factor once again confirms the hypothesis that one candle closed above or below the level, line, or moving average is clearly not enough to consider the overcoming of these obstacles (their breakdown) true. In case Friday's growth continues, the nearest target for the EUR/USD bulls will be 1.2063, where the fibo level is 38.2, where the red line of the Ichimoku Tenkan indicator is located, which can add a headache to the players for an increase in the exchange rate, since in this particular case it will act as a rather strong resistance. However, even the passage up of 38.2 fibo and Tenkan will not give an accurate answer regarding the further direction of the quote. In order for the bullish sentiment on the euro/dollar to take a clearer shape, it is necessary to break through the resistance line 1.2344-1. 2155 (plotted on the chart), then output the price up from the daily Ichimoku cloud, right on the upper border of which are 50 MA and the blue Kijun line. It is characteristic that 50 MA with Kijun are in the area of 1.2150, which will most likely be the key if the quote can rise to it. Trading recommendations for EUR/USD Despite the ambiguous closing of weekly trading and Friday's reversal candle pattern "Bullish absorption," at this stage, sales retain their priority and continue to be the main trading idea for the euro/dollar. Expected levels for opening short positions: 1.2070, 1.2088, 1.2100, 1.2110, 1.2135, and 1.2150. If we consider possible purchases, technically they look good from 1.2020, 1.2000, 1.1977, and 1.1963. In tomorrow's article, we will look at smaller time frames, and if necessary, we will make adjustments to these trading recommendations. Good luck! Analysis and Forecast for GBP/USD on February 8, 2021 2021-02-08 Good day, dear traders! Despite the strengthening of the British pound against the US dollar by 0.33%, the future prospects of the GBP/USD currency pair remain in doubt. We will talk in detail about this and other nuances in the technical part of the analysis of the pound/dollar pair, but for now, briefly about the external background and macroeconomic indicators that can and have already affected the price dynamics of the trading instrument in question. To begin with, the data last Friday on the US labor market showed a mixed trend. Let me remind you that the number of newly created jobs in the non-agricultural sectors of the American economy fell slightly short of the forecast value of 50 thousand, and came out at the level of 49 thousand. In principle, the same applies to wage growth, which in the first month of the new year was 0.2%, even though the average hourly wage was expected to grow by 0.3%. The only thing that really impressed me was the sharp drop in the unemployment rate from 6.7% to 6.3%. Thus, we can conclude that the US economy is not recovering as fast as many economists expected. Although there is nothing unusual or extraordinary not because Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and several other high-ranking officials of the U.S. Central Bank has repeatedly noted that the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy fell slightly, and maybe the recovery from the negative effects of the pandemic COVID-19 will require a longer period of time. The more that the United States was hit by the epidemic of coronavirus, what is called, in full and keep the sad leadership in the number of deaths from COVID-19. It is worth remembering that last Thursday, a regular meeting of the Bank of England was held, following which no changes were made to the monetary policy. The key interest rate, as expected, remained at 0.10% and the volume of bond purchases did not change and remained at 875 billion pounds. Since the accompanying statement and the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, did not have a pronounced "dovish" tone, which many market participants expected, the British currency received support and, largely due to this, ended last week with an increase against the US dollar Weekly 
Immediately it is worth noting that the last weekly candle, which was drawn on the corresponding time frame does not give a clear understanding for the further price direction of the pound/dollar currency pair. Despite the small bullish body of this candle, its shape is very close to the reversal pattern of the "Hanged" or "Hanged" Candle Analysis. In addition, it appeared at the very top of the upward trend and the strong resistance of sellers at 1.3757 remained unbroken. On the other hand, the last weekly candle can be viewed from a different angle. A long lower shadow (or tail) with lows at 1.3565, clearly demonstrated the reluctance of market participants to continue moving the quote in the south direction. As of this moment, the pair is trading in the range of 1.3757 to 1.3565, and the further direction of GBP/USD will depend on which side the exit from the designated range will take place, possibly even in the medium term. A confident close of the current weekly trading above the resistance level of 1.3757 will indicate the subsequent pull of the pair to growth. If the bears on the pound manage to update the previous lows at 1.3565 and close the week below this level, it is likely that the British currency will decline further against the US dollar. Daily 
As we can see on the daily chart, it is very clear that the pair found strong support near the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator last Friday, after which it showed an impressive growth. Trading on the first day of the current five-day trading period, the quote also began with a strengthening. At least, at the end of this article, the pair is trading with a fairly good increase, near 1.3737, and, apparently, it will once again test the resistance level of sellers at 1.3757. Once again, I want to draw your attention to the fact that the closing of one daily candle above 1.3757 will be clearly insufficient reason to consider this level truly broken. But the consolidation of three consecutive daily candles above 1.3757 and the subsequent pullback to the price zone of 1.3760 - 1.3750 will be a good reason to open a pair of long positions. Since if this happens, which is clearly not today, I suggest that we take a pause to open a new position in the pair. You will agree that buying under the resistance is not the best trading idea. Although, those traders who use a breakout strategy can try to buy on the breakout of the resistance level of 1.3757, but with small goals, from 20 to 45 points. Another option for purchases looks technically justified and at more favorable prices after a short-term decline in GBP/USD in the price zone of 1.3700 - 1.3685 and the appearance of bullish candlesticks on smaller time intervals, to a detailed analysis of which we will return in tomorrow's article on the pound/dollar pair. For possible sales, it is also worth waiting for the corresponding signals that will appear under 1.3757 on the hourly and (or) four-hour charts. Good luck! Trading idea for GBP/USD 2021-02-08  GBP / USD increased in price, trading near 1.37600 last Friday.  As a result, sellers are forced to place their stops at 1.37600, which suggests that it is a bad idea to open short positions in GBP, especially since there is a high chance that the quote will break above 1.37600 (by around 20-50 pips). But of course, traders still need to carefully assess the situation before placing any position. As we all know, trading is very precarious, but profitable as long as a correct strategy is used. The plan above follows Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. Good luck! EUR/USD: plan for the US session on February 8 (analysis of morning trades) 2021-02-08 To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2047 and recommended that you make decisions on entering the market from it. On the 5-minute chart, I highlighted the area where a false breakout was formed, and I advised opening short positions when forming it. However, at the time of writing, this did not lead to a major downward movement of the euro. The fundamental data released in the first half of the day also did not affect the exchange rate of the EUR/USD pair, which continues to trade in a narrow side channel. 
From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. Given that in the second half of the day, important macroeconomic statistics are not released, most likely the bulls will try to keep the market on their side, having taken a second test of the resistance of 1.2047 already during the US session. A test of this level from top to bottom forms an excellent signal to buy the euro with the aim of further growth in the area of the maximum of 1.2087, where I recommend taking the profits. The longer-range target of the bulls remains the maximum of 1.2129. If the pressure on the euro only increases in the second half of the day, and we see a normal downward correction, then buyers will need to focus on protecting the support of 1.2003, where the moving averages play on the side of the bulls. The formation of a false breakout forms a good entry point into long positions in the expectation of continuing the upward correction of the pair. If there is no activity of buyers at this level, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the minimum of the year in the area of 1.1952, from where you can buy the euro immediately on the rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to: The bears worked in the first half of the day, achieving the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2047. Even though there was no major downward movement, as long as trading is conducted below the level of 1.2047, the pressure on the euro will remain. And though the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has not had a major impact on the European currency, the bears can count on the return of EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2003, from the breakdown of which will determine the future direction of the pair. A breakout and a test of this level from the bottom up will form a new entry point for sales, which will push EUR/USD to the annual minimum in the area of 1.1952, where I recommend fixing the profits. If in the second half of the day we continue to observe the upward correction of the euro, and the bears do not show any activity during the next test of resistance at 1.2047, then it is best to postpone short positions until the renewal of the maximum 1.2087, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound to reduce by 20-25 points within the day. 
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for January 26 recorded a sharp increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones. The incoming data limits the upward potential of the euro, as does the fact that vaccination in the euro area will take place at a slower pace than expected. This is sure to affect GDP for the 1st quarter of this year, however, it is unlikely to seriously affect the medium-term prospects for the recovery of EUR/USD. With each significant downward correction of the pair, the demand for the euro returns, and the lower the exchange rate, the more attractive it will become for investors. The prospect of lifting the quarantine will keep the market positive in the future. However, the risk of extending the quarantine measures in February of this year is still a deterrent to the growth of the euro. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions increased from the level of 236,533 to the level of 238,099, while short non-profit positions decreased from 73,067 to the level of 72,755. Due to the continued growth of long positions, the total non-commercial net position rose to 165,344 from 163,466 a week earlier. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the growth of the euro in the short term. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2025 will increase the pressure on the euro. A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2047 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pair. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the US session on February 8 (analysis of morning trades) 2021-02-08 To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need to: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3723 and recommended opening short positions from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. It is visible how the bears achieve a breakout of 1.3723, after which the pound begins to fall with a new force. Unfortunately, I did not wait for the reverse test of the level of 1.3723 from the bottom up, which would allow entering short positions, thus, the signal was missed. Now the bulls are trying to defend the level of 1.3688, but at the first test, a strong rebound up did not happen. If the pound does not form a false breakout in this range in the near future, then long positions will need to be abandoned. 
The initial task of the pound buyers will be to protect the support of 1.3688. As noted above, only the formation of a false breakout there forms an additional signal to open long positions with the aim of an upward correction in the second half of the day to the resistance area of 1.3723. Major buyers will count on building the lower border of a new ascending channel in this range, and on updating the annual maximum in the area of 1.3757, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the second half of the day, important fundamental reports are not expected, so if the pressure on the pound persists, it is best not to rush to buy but to wait for the update of the minimum of 1.3645, from which I recommend opening long positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a correction of 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to: The sellers of the pound coped with the morning task and will now count on a breakthrough and consolidation below the next support of 1.3688, which is currently being traded. A test of this level from the bottom up will form a signal to open short positions, which will only increase the pressure on the pair and push it to the minimum of 1.3645, where I recommend taking the profit. A more optimal scenario for opening short positions in the US session is an upward correction and the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3723. There, you can count on the formation of the upper limit of a new descending channel and the repeated decline of the pound in the support area of 1.3688. I advise you to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only from the annual maximum in the area of 1.3757 with the aim of a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day. 
Let me remind you that the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 26 recorded an increase in both long and short positions. This time, there were much more sellers, which led to a decrease in the positive delta. The unsuccessful attempts of the bulls to break above the annual highs still do not pass without a trace, forcing traders to increase short positions in the expectation of a more active downward correction of the British pound. Long non-profit positions rose from the level of 45,904 to the level of 47,360. At the same time, the short non-profit jumped from the level of 32,199 to the level of 39,395, which is a very significant increase. As a result, the non-profit net position declined to 7,965 from 13,705 a week earlier. And although traders are trying to take a more wait-and-see position in the area of annual highs, and this is a consequence of the fact that it is very difficult for the bulls to update them, the demand for the pound will still be quite high. As the quarantine measures are lifted, which were strengthened due to the new COVID-19 strain, the upward movement of the GBP/USD pair will be more active. The support of the population and the labor market, which may last until the beginning of the summer of 2021, will also have a positive impact on the British pound. All the talk about negative interest rates from the Bank of England has no real basis yet. In the near future, a large report of the English regulator on this topic will be published, which can describe in more detail the picture with the further course of interest rates. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands If the pair grows, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.3723 will act as a resistance. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
EUR/USD analysis for February 08 2021 - Rejection of the neckline and potential for the downside continuation towards 1.1950 2021-02-08 Dennis Gartman: Inflation is on its way Gartman speaks to Bloomberg - Investors should buy gold in euro terms
During his prime, Gartman was known as the commodities king but now he just offers a couple of thoughts on the market since retiring the Gartman Letter in 2019. Since July last year, he said that inflation will be the economic reality of 2021 and he had touted gold as being 'undervalued' when trading below $1,800 at the time, so he's getting a bit of vindication at least. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that there was the perfect test and reject of the neckline of Head and Shoulders pattern, which is good sign for further downside continuation. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the first downside target at 1,195 and 1,1810. Stochastic is in overbought zone, which is another indication that there is potential for the downside movement. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2055 Support levels: 1,195 and 1,1810. Analysis of Gold for February 08,.2021 - Potential for the rally to complete and new downside wave towards $1.810 and $1.786 2021-02-08 Eurozone February Sentix investor confidence -0.2 vs 2.0 expected Euro area investor morale surprisingly slips in the latest Sentix survey as lockdown measures as woes surrounding the vaccine rollout weigh on sentiment. The current situation index fell from -26.5 in January to -27.5 while the expectations index declined from an all-time high of 33.5 in January to 31.5 in the latest reading. Sentix notes that: "The lockdowns in may European countries are leaving their mark. As a result, the EU economy is losing touch with the other regions of the world, which are continuing their recovery course in the month of February." Adding that broader sentiment was held back by the slow vaccine rollout across the EU and that the US is looking at a much stronger recovery path than Europe. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that there is the upside movement and correction in creation but that you should watch for eventual downside opportuntiies. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the first downside targets at $1,810 and $1,786. Stochastic is in overbought zone and got bear divergence, which is another indication that there is potential for the downside movement. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,830 Support levels: $1,810 and $1,786.
Author's today's articles: Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
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