| Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair on February 9, 2021 2021-02-09 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Tuesday, the market from the level of 1.2049 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to continue moving up with the target of 1.2102 - the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). After testing this level, the price can continue to work up with the target of 1.2176 - the resistance level (blue bold line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up
- Fibonacci levels - up
- Volumes - up
- Candlestick analysis - up
- Trend analysis - up
- Bollinger bands - up
- Weekly chart - up
General conclusion: Today, the price from the level of 1.2049 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to make an upward movement with the target of 1.2102 - the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). After testing this level, the price can continue to work up with the target of 1.2176 - the resistance level (blue bold line). Unlikely scenario: the price from the level of 1.2049 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to move up with the target of 1.2102 - the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). After testing this level, the price can continue to work downwards with the target of 1.1975 - the 50.0% retracement level (red dotted line). AUD/USD pair hovers around the level of 0.7800 again 2021-02-09 The US dollar index continues to decline, returning to January's range of 90.07 - 90.70, wherein it fluctuated for several weeks, alternately pushing off from its borders. The general weakening of the US currency was also reflected in the major dollar pairs. During the Asian session, there was an increased volatility in the currency market: the EUR/USD pair broke through the resistance level of 1.2060 (Tenkan-sen line on D1) and approached the borders of the 1.20 mark. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair fully updated its 32-month price high, being in the area of the 38th level. The AUD/USD pair did not stand aside either, which is rising for the third trading day in a row, after recently falling to two-month lows. Since Friday, it has already managed to gain more than 200 points, and has already returned to the price range (0.7710-0.7790), from which it was traded throughout January. Unlike many other dollar pairs, the Australian dollar is not only growing due to the weakening of the US currency, but also shows character (including in cross-pairs), amid a favorable fundamental picture. 
It should be recalled that the Reserve Bank of Australia expanded the volume of the incentive program, deciding to additionally buy back bonds for $ 100 billion, after the results of its last meeting were released. These purchases will begin in April, when the current incentive program ends. Such action was quite unexpected on the part of the RBA, since most experts were confident that the Central Bank would announce that the stimulus program would end this spring. Despite such a "dovish" outcome of the February meeting, the Australian dollar resisted its impact – AUD/USD pair remained above the support level of 0.7600. This is mainly because of RBA's optimistic rhetoric. The members of the Central Bank emphasized that this step was the last "dovish" decision. This assumption is consistent with RBA forecasts for the current year and 2022. According to the Central Bank, the level of Australia's GDP will return to 2019 level by the middle of this year. At the same time, the dynamics of inflation and wages are expected to grow positively, but slowly. Therefore, if the key macroeconomic indicators follow the set course, the regulator will maintain a wait-and-see position in the near future. It is also noteworthy that in additional comments, RBA's Chairman, Philip Lowe, ruled out the option of reducing the interest rate in the negative area. Meanwhile, the latest data on the growth of Australian inflation and the labor market were released in the positive area, reflecting the recovery processes. Such a fundamental background allows the AUD to rise, including in pair with the USD. However, it still depends on the US currency, moving in the wake of the quoted currency. The sharp strengthening of the US dollar, which was observed in late January and early February amid turbulence in the stock market and uncertainty about Biden's "American Rescue Plan", did not allow buyers of AUD/USD to develop the upward trend. The dollar bulls were in control, dominating the entire market. Since last Friday, the situation has changed. Several fundamental factors such as disappointing Nonfarm, growth of the stock market and Congress' adoption of a budget resolution, which may lead to the approval of the US economy aid package, lowered the demand for the safe US dollar. In addition, key data on the growth of US inflation will be published tomorrow, and a little later, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to make a speech, who will comment on the current situation in the monetary policy prospects. 
Ahead of these events, the US dollar was hit by a wave of sales, allowing the AUD/USD bulls to strengthen the upward impulse. It should be noted that most experts predict positive dynamics of US inflation (weak, but still growth), so if the data is released in the "red" zone, then the US dollar will come under additional pressure, while the Australian one will be able to test the level of 0.78. This is the main upward target. Last month, the pair's buyers tried to consolidate in this price area, but they failed. Therefore, it is early to discuss higher price values at the moment. Nevertheless, long positions can be considered from the current levels of the AUD/USD pair in the medium term, with the main target set at 0.7800 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). On both the daily and weekly charts, the price is between the middle and upper lines of this indicator, as well as above all the lines of the Ichimoku trend indicator, which formed a bullish signal "Parade of Lines". All this indicates the priority of the upward trend. Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 02/09/21 2021-02-09 Yesterday, the pair moved down, tested the 13 average EMA of 1.3682 (yellow thin line). After that, the price went up, testing the upper fractal of 1.3757 (red dotted line), closing the day at 1.3736. Today, the upward movement will perhaps continue according to the economic calendar news, it is expected at 12.00 and 15.00 UTC (USD). Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.3736 (the close of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3822 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line Indicator (the black dotted line). If this line is reached, the upward movement will continue with the target of 1.3944 - a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis – up - Fibonacci Levels – up - Volumes – up - Candle Analysis – down - Trend Analysis – up - Bollinger Bands – up - Weekly Schedule – up General Conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.3736 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3822 at the upper limit of the Bollinger Line Indicator (the black dotted line). If this line is reached, the upward movement will continue with the target of 1.3944 – a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). Unlikely scenario: when moving up and reaching the level of 1.3822 – the upper limit of the Bollinger Line Indicator (black dotted line) will go down with the target of 1.3695-13 average EMA (yellow thin line). Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 9. COVID-19 is retreating. Euro is trading upwards. 2021-02-09 
COVID-19 is clearly retreating. Global incidence has already dropped significantly, which is a very good news. In fact, the largest decline is in the United States, as it recorded new cases below 100,000 for several days. In total, COVID-19 incidence has fallen to below 350,000, which is two times lower than the recorded peaks. Did the vaccines cause this decline? Unfortunately, no. No more than 5% of the population has been vaccinated, and this is in developed countries. In fact, third world countries (except China) have not received any drug yet. 
EUR/USD - euro is trying to grow amid optimism in the markets. Open long positions from 1.2060. Euro must overcome the extremely important average (highlighted in blue in the chart above), which is 1.2090. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 9. COT reports. Euro buyers are serious, ready to break the 1.2087 high 2021-02-09 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Several signals to enter the market appeared yesterday. Let's take a look at them. Let's take a look at them. I marked the entry point for short positions that appeared in the morning on the 5 minute chart. I mentioned the 1.2047 level in my morning forecast and advised you to make decisions on entering the market. A false breakout was formed in this range during the European session. However, the euro did not sharply fall and the pair went down by around 25 points, afterwards the bulls tried to take control of the market. After a breakout and the pair settled above 1.2047, this level was tested from top to bottom in the afternoon, but there was no quick upward rebound and the pair fell below this level, which resulted in taking losses. Before talking about the further prospects for the EUR/USD movement, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions changed. Everyone had already forgotten about the problems with vaccination, and it would seem that it was solved. Disappointing fundamentals were not a reason to sell the euro for a long time now. Another thing is a decline in the EUR/USD pair and a more attractive rate for buying by medium-term investors. The COT report for February 2 revealed a sharp rise in short positions and a reduction in long positions, which reflects the pair's downward correction in late January and early February this year. Weak fundamentals for the eurozone economy and lower economic estimates from the European Central Bank limit the euro's growth potential, so does the fact that vaccinations in the eurozone will proceed at a slower pace than expected. All of this will lead to a double recession in the European economy in early 2021, but it is unlikely to seriously affect the medium-term prospects for the EUR/USD recovery. Therefore, with each significant downward correction, the demand for the euro will only increase, and the lower the rate, the more attractive it will be for investors. The prospect of canceling quarantine will clearly keep the market positive in the future. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions fell from 238,099 to 216,887, while short non-commercial positions rose from 72,755 to 79,884. Due to the sharp decline in long positions, the total non-commercial net position fell to 137,003 against 165,344 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.2067 against 1.2142. 
Buyers will be focused on the 1.2087 level since there won't be any significant fundamental reports today. A breakout and consolidation above this area, along with being able to test it from top to bottom will create a good entry point to long positions, which will lead to a new wave of growth for the euro so it can reach a high of 1.2129, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be the high at 1.2175. The support measures offered by the new US president will certainly continue to weaken the position of the dollar against a number of world currencies. For this reason, betting on a succeeding decline in the EUR/USD pair will not be an entirely correct decision. In case the euro falls this morning, the emphasis will be placed on the 1.2047 level. Moving averages that play on the buyer's side also pass in this range. Forming a false breakout in that area creates a good signal to enter long positions as we expect the euro to strengthen in the short term. If buyers are not active at this level, it is best to postpone long positions until a larger low of 1.2003 has been tested, from which you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: I recommend opening short positions against the upward trend this morning in case a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.2047, which will generate a signal to sell the euro. Weak data on the euro area and the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on the slower recovery of the European economy are likely to weigh on EUR/USD during morning trading. This will make it possible for the bears to return EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2003, since the pair's succeeding direction depends on whether the price surpasses it. A breakout and being able to test this level from the bottom up will create a new entry point for short positions, which will pull down EUR/USD to the annual low of 1.1952, where I recommend taking profit. If we continue to observe an upward correction from the euro in the first half of the day, and the bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2047, then it is best to postpone short positions until the 1.2087 high has been tested, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound in order to 20-25 points within a day. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to continue the upward correction of the pair. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2085 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator around 1.2010. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 9. COT reports. Pound surpasses new annual highs and is ready to test the 38th figure 2021-02-09 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Several signals to enter the market were created yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break it down. You can clearly see how the bears are trying to break through 1.3723, afterwards the pound started to fall with renewed vigor. Unfortunately I didn't wait for the 1.3723 level to be tested from the bottom up, which would allow us to enter short positions, so I missed the signal. Then the bulls tried to defend the 1.3688 level and it seemed to be successful, but this did not lead to a rapid large growth for the pair, which forced me to exit long positions. The bulls regained control over the 1.3723 level in the afternoon and after this level was tested from top to bottom, a signal to open long positions emerged as the pair continued to rise. As a result, the upward movement was around 35 points. Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market. The demand for the pound continued to increase even though the pair remained in a wide horizontal channel. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for February 2 revealed an increase in both long and short positions. This time there were more buyers, which led to an increase in the positive delta. The bulls' desperate attempts to surpass annual highs will lead to success sooner or later, so buyers do not lose hope that the bullish trend will continue in February. Each major decline in the pound prompts major players to raise long positions in anticipation of a more active GBP/USD recovery in the future. Long non-commercial positions rose from 47,360 to 53,658. At the same time, short non-commercial positions increased from 39,395 to 44,042, which prevented bears from taking control of the market. As a result of this, the non-commercial net position rose to the level of 9,616 against 7,965 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3675 against 1.3676. The fact that the bulls held their positions at such a high volatility within the week, once again suggests that the pair is clearly set to overcome annual highs. I recommend betting on the pound's succeeding growth. The demand for the pound will only increase as quarantine measures are lifted, which are expected to be phased out in February this year. The support for the population and the labor market, which will be announced in March, will also have a positive effect on the pound's rate. All the talk about negative interest rates from the Bank of England was postponed indefinitely last week, which allows the pound to spread its wings. 
The initial task of the pound buyers is to settle above the resistance level of 1.3791. Testing this level from top to bottom creates an additional signal to open long positions in sustaining the upward trend, which may result in renewing highs in the area of 1.3825 and 1.3879, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a downward correction in GBP/USD in the morning amid the absence of important fundamental data, it is best not to rush into long positions, but wait for a false breakout in the support area of 1.3757, which previously served as a fairly powerful resistance limiting the pair's growth potential. If buyers are not active, I recommend waiting for the 1.3721 low to be tested, afterwards you can buy the pound from there on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-30 points within the day. The moving averages, playing on the side of the buyers of the pound, are also located there. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Forming a false breakout in the 1.3791 area will return the pressure to the pair and lead to forming a small downward correction in the first half of the day. An equally important task for the bears is to regain control over support at 1.3757. However, there are no fundamental reasons for this. Therefore, only a breakout and the ability to test this level from the bottom up can create an entry point into short positions, as we aim to pull down GBP/USD to a low of 1.3721, where I recommend taking profits. There are also moving averages, playing on the side of buyers of the pound. In case the pair grows during the European session and bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.3791, I recommend not to rush to sell, but to wait for the 1.3825 high. I also recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound in the resistance area of 1.3879 with the aim of a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the pound's succeeding growth in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator at 1.3791 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the 1.3721 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 9, 2021 2021-02-09 Everything seems to be quite logical if we analyze the chart of the Euro currency. There was a small rebound (about half of this decline) after weakening for quite some time, which is a common technique. However, the unanswered question is why did this rebound begin on Friday, when the US Department of Labor report was published, and whose content exceeded all the forecasts? It was known that the US labor market is recovering steadily. Now, the same question becomes even more relevant if you look at the pound, which has risen to record values over the past two or three years. So, the answer to the question of what makes European currencies grow lies in a slightly different condition. And oddly enough, it's all about the usual comparison of what the authorities are doing on both sides of the Atlantic. If you look closely, you can see that the European Union and the United Kingdom are primarily concerned with the implementation of the vaccination program. The main issue, which is surely a priority for Europe, is the fulfillment of contractual obligations by the vaccine manufacturers, who clearly do not cope with them. But what about the United States, where the epidemiological situation is almost the worst in the world? The issue of vaccination there seems to be fading into the background. Rather, it is discussing the issue of considering impeachment of Donald Trump, who is no longer the US President, and who exactly to distribute checks for $ 1,400. This means that instead of trying to get the entire population vaccinated as soon as possible, the Capitol and the White House are concerned about the removal of the Republican Party from power and the lack of money distribution to everyone and everything, which is simple and uncomplicated populism. In general, the United States does anything but what is really necessary, which is the reason for the weakening of the US dollar. 
Today, some macroeconomic data will be published, but they are not expected to affect the mood of investors in any way. First, the data on open vacancies in the United States will come out after the close of the European session, which means that the market activity will be insignificant. Second, the decline in the number of open vacancies from 6,257,000 to 6,400,000 is fully consistent with the recent decline in the unemployment rate, and so, they will not show anything new. All this suggests that the European currencies may slightly rise. After all, the market simply does not have any new information yet. Job Openings (United States): 
The EUR/USD pair is in the pullback stage from the low of the correction course of 1.1950, where market participants have already managed to reach the level of 1.2080. We can assume that the area of 1.2100/1.2150 will restrain buyers, which will lead to a slowdown and followed by the restoration of the corrective course. 
The GBP/USD pair updated the high of the mid-term upward trend again. As a result, the quote remained above the level of 1.3780. The pound's high value leads to an overbought status, which eventually causes the risk of a technical correction. Currently, further price fluctuations at the high of the trend is likely. 
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 9, 2021 2021-02-09 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has broken through the supply zone located between the levels of 1.3757 - 1.3779 and made a new swing high at the level of 1.3(at the time of writing the article). The momentum on the H4 time frame chart is strong and positive, but the market conditions had hit the overbought levels already. Please notice, that only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.3779 would open the road towards the next target seen at the level of 1.3889, so the bulls can't stop at the current market levels. The level of 1.3757 and 1.3739 will now act as an intraday technical support. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4004 WR2 - 1.3871 WR1 - 1.3816 Weekly Pivot - 1.3685 WS1 - 1.3620 WS2 - 1.3497 WS3 - 1.3434 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3756 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 9, 2021 2021-02-09 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has broken above the level of 1.2071, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The next target for bulls is the technical resistance level located at the level of 1.2088 (technical resistance level) and 1.2098 (61% Fibonacci retracement level). The intraday technical support is located at 1.2060 level now. Please notice, the momentum on the H4 time frame chart is strong and positive and market is picking up from the oversold conditions, which support the short-term bullish outlook for this pair. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2314 WR2 - 1.2227 WR1 - 1.2130 Weekly Pivot - 1.2038 WS1 - 1.1949 WS2 - 1.1857 WS3 - 1.1765 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
GBP/USD. February 9. COT report. Exports from the UK to the European Union fell by 68% in January 2021 2021-02-09 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the British dollar and resumed the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.3820. I also built an upward trend corridor yesterday, which characterizes the current mood of traders as "bullish". The most important thing that happened over the past day is the closing of quotes above the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3744), near which the pair has been moving in recent weeks and which significantly increased the chances of the British dollar for further growth. However, closing the pair's exchange rate under the corridor will work in favor of the US currency, and some fall. Meanwhile, the British Association of Carriers has released data showing that the volume of exports from the UK to the EU countries has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year. The organization reports that the volume of exports in January 2021 fell by almost 70% compared to January 2020. The statement also says that it was not the coronavirus pandemic that caused such a strong drop, but a new mechanism for controlling goods at borders and various bureaucracies. However, the official position of the government differs from that of the association of carriers. "Thanks to the hard work of carriers, violations at the border have so far been minimal, and freight traffic is now close to normal levels, despite the COVID-19 pandemic," the British government said. However, it seems that the trade turnover has seriously decreased. Many drivers note the need to carry a health certificate when crossing the British border with the EU. All this only complicates and slows down the process of cargo transportation. Demand for the British currency has increased again, and now the currency can target the level of $ 1.4. It is still difficult to make an accurate conclusion about the reasons for the new growth of the British, but it seems that they should be looked for in America, not in the UK since there is simply no positive news from Britain. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the British dollar and closed over the rectangle that displays the sideways corridor of the last few weeks. Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% (1.3977). Today, the divergence is not observed in any of the indicators. I recommend paying more attention to the hourly chart, where there is a trend corridor. GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). GBP/USD - Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound//dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Monday, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, made a speech in the UK, but again he did not report anything remarkable. In the US, the economic news calendar was empty. News calendar for the United States and Great Britain: On February 8, the calendars of economic events in Great Britain and America are again empty, thus, the influence of the information background will be absent. This, however, does not prevent traders from continuing to buy the British. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from February 2 for the British was much more "calm" than for the Europeans. During the reporting week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 5.5 thousand long contracts and only 2 hundred fewer short contracts. Thus, the mood of the major players, according to the COT report, has not changed. Speculators continue to maintain a very restrained "bullish" mood, which can not be said by the behavior of the Briton itself, which continues to remain very high and does not show any signs of having a desire to start falling. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the British dollar at the close above the level of 1.3744 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3820. These trades can be held now, and the second target is added to the first target – 1.3895. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling when closing quotes on the hourly chart below the trend line with targets of 1.3698 and 1.3625. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Why is it necessary to wait for a new wave of the US dollar's fall? Pound buyers are set for new highs, while Labour is pushing for more programs to support the economy 2021-02-09 After the Democratic Party published details of a new bill proposed by Joe Biden to combat the coronavirus on Monday, the US dollar lost ground against the euro and the British pound. We are talking about a $1.9 trillion aid package, which, according to Democrats, the economy so urgently needs. Against this background, the US stock market has already recovered all the losses that were observed last week, and went on to update historical highs. The British pound also hit new highs, while Labour is pushing for more programs to support the UK economy.  The new bill proposed by Joe Biden affects all economic and social spheres, from education to financial services and the labor market. But it was not the details of the bill that weakened the dollar's position, but the information that the Democratic Party, immediately after approving this aid package, was already aiming for another round of stimulus payments in the coming years. It is expected that a vote on the new bill will be held in the near future, after which it will go to the Senate, where Democrats and Republicans have an equal number of votes. The expectation is that Vice President Kamala Harris will vote for the new aid package and launch a more expedited procedure for its adoption. The new project provides for a $1,400 payment to citizens with a total annual income of up to $75,000, or to couples earning less than $150,000 for two. Eligibility for payments will depend on income for 2019 or 2020. The account also provides a $1,400 payment to dependent adults and children. Also, the unemployment benefits will also be increased. The bill provides for an increase in the weekly federal benefit from $300 to $400. The payments will be valid until the end of August 2021. Benefits for the self-employed will also be expanded. As for the additional benefits, the new president Joe Biden recently announced that he is preparing a package of measures to reduce tax payments to families with children. The decision to increase child benefit payments was also supported by a number of representatives of the Republican Party. From yesterday's fundamental statistics, I would like to highlight several reports. Data from Destatis on the volume of industrial production in Germany was clearly disappointing, as the indicator was worse than economists' forecasts. Industrial production remained unchanged in December 2020 after rising 1.5% in November. Economists had forecast growth of 0.3% in December. On an annualized basis, the decline in industrial production was 1.25%. It pulled down the overall production indicator in the manufacturing sector, where the reduction was 8.5% compared to 2019. Another report from Sentix on Monday indicated that eurozone investor confidence fell in February 2021. This was due to a slowdown in the rate of vaccination, which affected both the assessment of the current situation and the expectations of the economic outlook. According to the data, the index of investor sentiment fell to -0.2 points in February after rising to 1.3 points in January this year. Economists had forecast the index to rise to 1.9 points. The current situation index fell to -27.5 points from -26.5 points in January. The expectations index fell to 31.5 points from 33.5 points.  As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, after yesterday's breakout of the 1.2050 resistance, the mood among buyers of risky assets has become much better than it was before. A break of 1.2050 suggests that the bullish momentum may continue further, with the next target being a maximum of 1.2090. Going beyond this range will certainly lead to a more powerful movement of the euro up to the area of 1.2130 and 1.2180, where the market will see profit-taking on long positions. It will be possible to talk about the return of pressure on the European currency only after the sellers push the trading instrument back under the support of 1.2050. This will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders of the bulls and to a larger movement of the trading instrument in the area of the lows of 1.2000 and 1.1950. GBP The British pound is not experiencing any problems with growth, even against the background of warnings from the UK Labour Party, which said that it is necessary to extend state aid programs in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, which end in March this year. If this does not happen, the economy could lose up to 50 billion pounds. The argument was that many firms were running out of cash, and therefore needed to provide additional liquidity. The party has already called on UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak to act now, rather than wait until March 3, when a budget approval meeting will be held, at which benefits and various programs to support business and the labor market are expected to be extended. Labour expects that after the expiration of the support programs, English businesses will immediately face additional costs of about 50 billion pounds, which will blow a hole in the economy. Lucy Powell, the party's spokeswoman, said yesterday that a smarter scheme to support businesses and businesses was needed, which would save jobs and provide a faster path for the UK economy to recover. As expected, the lifting of quarantine measures will not happen until March of this year, ergo, it is necessary to think about how to further protect the employment market, which is unlikely to show growth at one point. Representatives of the Labour Party also reminded the Finance minister about the value-added tax, which is about 34 billion pounds. After the cancellation of the benefits, it must be paid by March 31, 2021, which only increases the debt burden on enterprises and companies.  The British pound was disregarded by today's report from the British retail consortium trade, which declined for the first time since the spring of last year. The restrictions in place since November 2020 have caused more damage to retailers than expected. Total sales decreased 1.3% year-on-year in January 2021 compared to 2020, when sales increased 7.1%. The current quarantine measures undermine consumer confidence and force buyers to rein in their spending, especially on clothing and shoes. As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, going beyond the resistance of 1.3760 provoked a number of active purchases from major players, which strengthens the position of the British pound and leaves a fairly high probability of continuing growth in the future. Buyers are now looking at the resistance at the base of the 38th figure, a break of which will surely lead to a test of new highs in the area of 1.3840 and 1.3880. It will be possible to talk about the return of pressure on the trading instrument only after the bears regain control of the level of 1.3750. In this scenario, it will be possible to observe a repeated decline of the pair to the lows of 1.3720 and 1.3680. Forex forecast 02/09/2021 on USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USDX and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga 2021-02-09 Let's take a look at the US Dollar toady: USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USDX and BTC/USD analysis is here.
Author's today's articles: Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Mihail Makarov  - Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Alexandr Davidov  No data Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Pavel Vlasov  No data
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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