Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Corporate America under pressure on Trumpism — Dems battle over stimulus — Left wins on direct payments

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By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

First in MM: More pressure on corporate America over TrumpThe Lincoln Project , which took on former president Donald Trump the last several years, has a new six figure ad buy going up this morning on CNBC, Bloomberg TV and Fox Business targeting corporations as risking their brands and reputations if they continue to support politicians who backed Trump and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. You can see the ad here. Strong stuff.

And it's just one small piece of a much larger story that will play out over the next two years as the internal GOP war continues over Trump and Trumpism and corporate America struggles to reckon with the fallout. Most C-suite executives would like to eventually go back to relatively balanced political giving. And they hope Trump will just recede into the shadows. Not likely.

Instead, it's going to be increasingly uncomfortable for them to deal with workforces and customer bases that recoil at any association with Trump or the Jan. 6 insurrection attempt. And that attempt will return to the center of the news cycle today with the start of Trump's impeachment trial in the Senate. Trump will almost certainly be acquitted and continue to exert heavy influence on the GOP. And big companies will have some tough choices to make.

Via Lincoln Project's Rick Wilson : "This spot speaks the language of corporate America … with a twist that reminds them of the reality that their financial support for violent, Trump extremist insurrectionists and those who sought to disenfranchise millions of African American voters will have dire consequences for their bottom line."

Summers vs Sperling — The infighting among Democrats also continues with a new Gene Sperling op-ed in the FT firing back at Larry Summers questioning the size of Biden's stimulus package:

"Rather than trying to tailor the response to one's best guess of the precise size of today's crisis, go big enough to buy insurance for economic recovery efforts with the recognition that things might go wrong and might already be worse than expected."

The fight already has ex-Obama officials joking about a steel cage match between Sperling and Summers (though the policy implications are actually quite serious). One said: "I'm thinking a pay per view 'Larry versus Gene' debate live from Bradenton."

And another: "Larry would have a height advantage but Gene is crafty. To be fair, it takes a little more courage to take on your friends than to support them."

If it goes wrong — Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "It's entirely possible … to both to worry about the potential inflationary consequences of a relief bill that's much bigger than the likely output gap, and at the same time to think it's probably the right thing to do. A bigger package now is an insurance policy against Covid choosing not to cooperate with forecasts …

"We appreciate that a Fed which sees downside inflation risk under every rock might be slower than we'd like in dealing with rising inflation, but the memories of the inflationary era have not faded completely, and ultimately they'll do what's necessary."

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING — Congrats to Dave Herta, of Burton, Michigan, who won the MM Super Bowl prediction contest with his call of Bucs 31, Chiefs 23 with Tom Brady as MVP. Others picked the Pats and Brady but Dave got closest to the score. ...

He informs MM he is fine with the non-existent steak knives prize because he doesn't eat steak! Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. … Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

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Driving the Day

Senate impeachment trial kicks off at 1:00 p.m. with arguments from the House managers and Trump's lawyers. Senate plans to vote after the arguments – with a simple majority needed – on the constitutionality of trying a former president. … NFIB survey at 6:00 a.m. expected to rise to 97.9 from 96 …

BEWARE THE ACTING HEADS? — Via CapAlpha's Ian Katz: : "President Biden's initial Cabinet picks, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, skewed toward the moderate side and looked like an Obama 2.0 lineup. Since then, financial regulator nominees including Gary Gensler at the SEC, Rohit Chopra at the CFPB, and yes, Michael Barr at the OCC, have been more progressive.

"The acting agency heads named to serve for the time being have been assertive about pushing ahead with the Democratic agenda and clearly don't see themselves as seat-warmer … Investors should understand that temporary regulators, particularly Dave Uejio at the CFPB, are trying to ramp up oversight of financial firms faster than most expected."

DEMS DIVIDED ON IMMIGRATION — Our Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine: "It took fewer than three weeks of Washington control for Democrats to confront the vexing politics of immigration. An effort to restrict stimulus checks to undocumented immigrants is blowing a hole in Democrats' unity in the Biden era, after a bloc of Democrats sided with Republicans over their more progressive colleagues last week.

"The immigration status of those seeking new stimulus payments is shaping up as a major point of contention among Democrats as the House and Senate write their coronavirus relief bills, presaging the tough fights ahead among the party's tight majorities in Congress on a politically volatile issue."

PROGRESSIVES WIN ON STIM PAYMENTS — Our Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris: "House Democrats will move ahead with a coronavirus stimulus package that would keep the existing income limits for Americans who receive stimulus checks, while tightening eligibility for higher-earning Americans — a major win for progressives.

"The plan … would keep $1,400 stimulus checks flowing to Americans making up to $75,000 a year — rather than the $50,000 threshold that some moderate Democrats had proposed. It would, however, tighten eligibility for those making over $75,000 as an individual — a higher-earning group that previously qualified for smaller checks. Couples making $150,000 would also qualify for direct payments, with that eligibility phasing out for earners making up to $200,000."

CORPORATE AMERICA BATTLES DEMS ON CLIMATE — Our Zachary Warmbrodt: "Corporate America is entering the Biden era with bold public pledges to fight climate change. But as Democrats seek to hold businesses to those promises, they're facing a big battle.

"Democrats are vowing to go through the Securities and Exchange Commission to impose sweeping financial disclosure rules on climate risk that would force thousands of businesses including banks, manufacturers and energy producers to divulge information to investors. Lenders are set to get even more scrutiny from their own regulators like the Federal Reserve, including potential stress tests … Now, the backlash is beginning."

SHELBY RETIRING — Our Caitlin Emma and James Arkin: "Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) announced … he won't seek reelection to a seventh term after more than four decades in Congress. Shelby, who chaired the Senate Appropriations Committee until Democrats won control of the chamber last month, has long been seen as likely to retire in 2022.

"The 86-year-old Republican is the fourth most senior member of the upper chamber and the longest-serving senator from Alabama. He has chaired several committees over the course of his career, including the powerful Appropriations Committee, where he's still the top Republican, and the Banking Committee, of which he's the longest-serving member."

 

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Markets

STOCKS PUSH TO MORE GAINS AND RECORD HIGHS — AP's Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: "U.S. stocks notched more gains and pushed to new highs Monday, extending a winning streak that just gave the market its best weekly gain since November. The S&P 500 rose 0.7 percent, its sixth straight gain. The three major indexes climbed to an all-time high, as did a benchmark of smaller company stocks.

"Technology and financial stocks helped lead the broad rally. Energy sector companies surged the most following a 2 percent jump in the price of U.S. crude oil. Treasury yields mostly rose. Investors have been encouraged by surprisingly good corporate earnings reports, news that a recent surge in new coronavirus cases is easing, and progress in the distribution of vaccines."

 

TUNE IN TO GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS: Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded over the past year amid a global pandemic. This podcast helps to identify and understand the impediments to smart policymaking. Subscribe and start listening today.

 
 
Fly Around

COMMODITIES BURST — Via Joe Deaux in Bloomberg on rising interest in low co2 aluminum (produced with hydro or solar): "Aluminum producers have long touted more environmentally friendly methods to make the metal as the way of the future, but no one has been willing to pay extra for it -- until now.

"Multiple transactions of so-called 'green aluminum' as well as billet and foundry products fetched a premium over standard prices in Europe this week, according to researcher Harbor Intelligence. … [P]roducers who use lower carbon-emitting power generation are branding the aluminum as such. Companies with low-carbon options include Alcoa Corp., Rio Tinto Group, Norsk Hydro ASA, Emirates Global Aluminum and United Co. Rusal International PJSC"

BIGGEST BANKS KEEP LENDING LESS AND LESS OF THEIR MONEY — Bloomberg's Shahien Nasiripour: "The biggest U.S. banks reduced the portion of their collective balance sheets they're dedicating to loans to a new low, extending a trend that's seen the largest lenders put less and less of their firepower behind everyday borrowers."

FED TO WEAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK INTO BANK OVERSIGHT — Reuters: "The U.S. Federal Reserve is beginning to incorporate the impacts of global warming into its regulatory writ, following in the footsteps of its global peers, according to a paper published Monday by the San Francisco Fed."

 

JOIN WEDNESDAY – A PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW ON TRUMP'S SECOND IMPEACHMENT TRIAL: After weeks of tension following the January insurrection at the Capitol, all eyes are on the Senate as the second impeachment trial against former President Trump begins. Join Playbook co-author Rachael Bade for a discussion on the ins and outs of the historic proceedings with former Ambassador Norman Eisen, a senior fellow in Governance Studies at The Brookings Institution, and a former special counsel to the House Judiciary Committee. What arguments will Trump's lawyers and House impeachment managers use? Where will this leave things on Capitol Hill? REGISTER HERE.

 
 

CBO: $15 WAGE WOULD REDUCE POVERTY, INCREASE DEBT — AP's Kevin Freking, Alan Fram and Josh Boak: "Increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour would reduce the number of Americans living in poverty and boost wages for millions of Americans while adding to the federal debt and joblessness, a new report from the Congressional Budget Office projects."

"The federal deficit would increase by about $54 billion over 10 years under a Democratic proposal to gradually increase the federal minimum wage to $15, largely because the higher wages paid to workers, such as those caring for the elderly, would contribute to an increase in federal spending, the estimate found."

TESLA TURNS TO BITCOIN — Reuters' Subrat Patnaik, Anna Irrera and David Randall: "Bitcoin took another large stride toward mainstream acceptance on Monday after billionaire Elon Musk's electric vehicle company Tesla Inc revealed it had bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency and would soon accept it as a form of payment for cars - sending the cryptocurrency shooting higher."

YIELD ON 30-YEAR TREASURY HITS 2 PERCENT FOR FIRST TIME SINCE PANDEMIC — WSJ's Matt Wirz: "The yield of the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond pushed past 2 percent Monday for the first time since February 2020, before the coronavirus pandemic roiled government-debt markets. The move comes amid a recent surge in yields of longer-term Treasury bonds compared with short-term debt, as traders bet that government stimulus will accelerate a rebound in economic growth."

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