News: The path forward for Dems

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

The path forward for Dems

Jan 26, 2021

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Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has agreed to a power-sharing agreement with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer after two Democratic senators vowed to protect the legislative filibuster, paving the way for Democrats to finally begin organizing the Senate committees, among other orders of business for the new majority.

But Democrats are still staring down some tough political calculations ahead, including whether they will utilize a procedural maneuver to bypass Senate Republicans and push through a new Covid package. And their next move will signal how Democrats will work with Republicans -- and the Biden administration -- moving forward.

Let's get to it:

SAVE IT OR FIlI-BUST-ER: McConnell said in a statement Monday night he has agreed to an organizing resolution with Schumer after moderate Dem Sens. Joe Manchin (W.V.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) "publicly confirmed" they won't vote to scrap the legislative filibuster.

"With these assurances, I look forward to moving ahead with a power-sharing agreement modeled on that precedent," McConnell said, noting that their organizing resolution is based off of the Senate's last 50-50 power-sharing agreement in 2001, under Senate leaders Trent Lott and Tom Daschle.

While some Democrats thought they could use the threat of killing the filibuster as a bargaining tool with Republicans who choose to block their priorities, Manchin came out and told Burgess there is no scenario where he will change his mind: "None whatsoever that I will vote to get rid of the filibuster." Sinema remained firm as well, with her office confirming that she is "not open to changing her mind" on the matter.

The timing comes as Democrats were becoming increasingly more angry with McConnell. And Schumer did not appear like he had plans to budge from his position, saying earlier Monday: "All I can tell you is we're not letting McConnell dictate how the Senate operates. He's minority leader." Marianne has more: http://politi.co/3ogdDu1

RECONCILIATION NATION? That is still the question. Biden is not discounting the use of reconciliation to pass Covid aid, but he is tying his decision to the ticking clock hand.

"The decision to use reconciliation will depend upon how these negotiations go," Biden said Monday, while noting "time is of the essence" about passing additional pandemic relief. He also said this is a decision that House and Senate leaders will make -- though his greenlight carries weight.

The reconciliation process itself is not a particularly speedy one. It actually could take a few weeks with both the House and Senate having to go through the motions of processing the budget changes.

It will be an early test for Biden. Does he negotiate, negotiate, negotiate or does he decide to bypass the GOP by mustering his Covid package through, which is receiving bipartisan pushback at the moment? And with Cabinet confirmations and the Senate impeachment trial, the administration's timeline to pass Covid relief in March could make this, as Burgess put it, "a very chaotic exercise."

Related Reads: Biden says he's willing to negotiate parameters of coronavirus deal, but 'time is of the essence' by WaPo's Erica Werner and Jeff Stein: http://wapo.st/2M7SEN5 | 9 questions about budget reconciliation you were too afraid to ask by Vox's Dylan Scott: http://bit.ly/2YhMY5r

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PORT ONE OUT: Weighing on the situation? The surprise announcement on Monday from Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) that he will not be seeking reelection next year.

To be clear: It is a loss in many ways for both parties. Portman's departure comes amid the dwindling number of centrists in the upper chamber, and he's considered one of the most effective legislators in the Senate who could bring coalitions together.

The reason he's leaving?: "It has gotten harder and harder to break through the partisan gridlock and make progress on substantive policy, and that has contributed to my decision," he said in a statement.

While he has two years left in his term, Portman's pending departure still marks a setback for Republicans who are angling to take back control of the Senate. But it also means Portman is a key vote to watch during the Senate impeachment trial now that he doesn't have to worry about a primary.

Burgess and James Arkin have the story: http://politi.co/36bPpuU

PICK ME, PICK ME: So who will jump in to fill his seat? Spoiler alert: There is a long list of names, from GOP Reps. Jim Jordan, Brad Wenstrup, David Joyce, Steve Stivers, Bill Johnson and others as well as Dem Rep. Tim Ryan.

But that list doesn't even include author J.D. Vance or state officials like Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, former Treasurer Josh Mandel, Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, and Attorney General Dave Yost, who are also considered possible contenders for the seat.

Related Reads: Rob Portman: From both President Bushes, to Congress and the Senate, here's the retiring Ohio Senator's career at a glance by Cincinnati.com's Scott Wartman: http://bit.ly/3oiSOhE | Portman planned exit sets off Ohio free-for-all by The Hill's Cristina Marcos: http://bit.ly/3pnfPBe

THE UNOFFICIAL GUIDE TO OFFICIAL WASHINGTON: The new Playbook team got off to fast start last week with a series of big scoops. The reporting foursome of Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Tara Palmeri will roam every corner of Washington, bringing you the big stories you need to know–and the insider nuggets that you want to know–about the new power centers and power players in Washington. "This town" has changed. And no one covers this town like Playbook. Subscribe today.

HAPPY TUESDAY! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill on this Jan. 26, where you can tell your boss, who wants that report on their desk yesterday, that at least you are crushing it on social media.

MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Axios' story on Kevin McCarthy's rude awakening was the big winner.

COMPETITION TIME: Today is your Huddle host's birthday and as such, I would like to ask all you Huddlers to send as a gift your best haikus about Sen. Bernie Sanders' Inauguration gloves. The more ridiculous the better. I'll pick a winner (or maybe even two) to be featured in tomorrow's Huddle.

PHOTO OF THE DAY: NYT's Erin Schaff captures the impeachment managers walking the article of impeachment to the Senate: https://bit.ly/2Mr0q4e

MESSAGE DELIVERED: The impeachment trial is now in the hands of the Senate, after the impeachment managers transmitted the article of impeachment against Trump to the upper chamber last night. And the latest move comes just after Trump's team relayed a message of their own to Senate Republicans over the weekend: He's not going anywhere.

Brian Jack, Trump's former political director at the White House, spent the weekend telling Republican senators that no, the former president has no plans to start a third party. He will be keeping his focus on the GOP. While Jack never mentioned impeachment explicitly, the calls are seen as the latest sign to Senate Republicans that Trump may come after them in upcoming primaries if they vote to convict him.

"The president wanted me to know...that anything he would do politically in the future would be as a Republican," recounted Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). Burgess, Marianne and Meridith McGraw have the story: http://politi.co/3sVZiXk

AND YET: Amid the push and pulls centered around the trial, there are still a lot of TBDs.

The two Senate leaders still need to iron out the basic structure of the trial, including length of arguments, motions to call witnesses and a possible motion to dismiss the trial at its outset.

As Andrew and Marianne report: "The procedures — outlined in an organizing resolution — will foreshadow the likelihood, or not, of convicting Trump, which will require the support of at least 17 GOP senators."

There is also a split in the Senate over whether to call witnesses, though Schumer said last night on MSNBC: "I don't think there's a need for a whole lot of witnesses. We were all witnesses." Here's their breakdown of the witness debate: http://politi.co/2MrKyyp

TURN AROUND, NOW SWITCH: Sen. Patrick Leahy, the president pro tempore of the Senate, will preside over Trump's second impeachment trial, rather than Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts since Trump is not the current president.

While the most senior Democrat received a little pushback from Senate Republicans -- who may argue his vote should not count during the trial -- the Vermont Democrat in a statement vowed to "administer the trial with fairness, in accordance with the Constitution and the laws."

NOT A NO...: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) in a new statement Monday did not tip her hand on how she would vote during the impeachment trial: "As I've said, President Trump exhibited poor leadership and holds some responsibility for the anarchy that ensued at the heart of our democracy."

Meanwhile, on the other side of the chamber…

MCCARTHY'S MISSTEPS: Kevin McCarthy wants to get back into Trump's good graces, but his efforts to appease everyone could wind up making more people unhappy as he waffles on how much blame Trump shoulders for the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

First: Shortly after the Capitol attack, McCarthy said that Trump bears some responsibility for the attack, and even floated the possibility of censuring the then-GOP president.

Then: McCarthy softened his tone last week by publicly stating that Trump didn't "provoke" the violence and that "Trump continues to have that ability to lead this party and unite." The shift came after Trump reportedly grew so angry over McCarthy's floor speech that he called the California Republican the "P" word. And no, I don't mean Puppy.

Sunday: McCarthy took a more critical stance on Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), whose impeachment vote infuriated Trump and his allies. In an interview with Gray TV, the GOP leader voiced "concerns" with her vote and called out Cheney for not giving him a heads up about her position.

And Now: While it appears McCarthy's efforts to smooth it over with Trump are working, at least to some degree, the GOP leader needs to strike the perfect balance of pleasing the MAGA wing and protecting moderates in his conference if he wants to cement his future leading the party. Melanie and Tara Palmeri with the good read: http://politi.co/3qQXZqL

Related Reads: As Trump seeks to remain a political force, new targets arise by NYT's Maggie Haberman and Reid Epstein: http://nyti.ms/3a72fvs | Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz coming to Wyoming as anti-Cheney effort grows by the Casper Star Tribune's Nick Reynolds: http://bit.ly/3oqmSYU | Conservative SC district jolted by Rep. Tom Rice's vote to impeach Trump by The Post & Courier's Tyler Fleming and Jamie Lovegrove: http://bit.ly/36cJO7F

MOURNING & MANAGING: 'Carrying Tommy in my heart': Amid personal tragedy, Raskin leads House's impeachment case by CNN's Jeremy Herb and Lauren Fox: http://cnn.it/3sUD1sX

Related Reads: House Democrats plan to focus impeachment trial on how rioters reacted to Trump's remarks by WaPo team: http://wapo.st/3caZw6O | Trump impeachment 2.0 is as flawed as the first, John Bolton writes in a National Review Op-Ed: http://bit.ly/3sZUxft

FIRST IN HUDDLE: The Campaign for Accountability is filing ethics complaints against Rep. Andy Harris. The D.C. based watchdog is asking the D.C. U.S. Attorney's Office and the Office of Congressional Ethics to investigate the Maryland Republican for potential firearms offenses after he reportedly attempted to bring a gun onto the House floor last week.

A Harris spokesperson has previously told news outlets that the gun was for self-defense, but the watchdog is raising questions as to whether he violated any laws. Read the full letter here: http://bit.ly/3oj7kpx

DON'T BANKS ON IT: Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), chairman of the Republican Study Committee Chairman, is leading most of the House GOP conference (think 200 out of 211) in warning Democrats and the Biden administration that they will vote against any government funding bill that attempts to repeal or weaken "the Hyde Amendment or other current-law, pro-life appropriations provisions."

"No president in American history has ever vetoed an appropriations bill due to its inclusion of the Hyde Amendment," they argued. Read their full letter here: https://bit.ly/3qRnojZ

THOSE PESKY OLD TWEETS: https://bit.ly/2Yf1ET1

IMMIGRATION LEGISLATION?: Biden open to breaking his immigration bill into piece and Hill allies may be fine with that by Laura Barrón-López, Anita Kumar, and Sabrina Rodriguez: http://politi.co/39iZOGX

CONFIRMED: The Senate confirmed Janet Yellen in an 84-15 vote to be Biden's Treasury Secretary, making her the third of the new president's nominations to be confirmed since he took office. Today, the Senate is expected to confirm Biden's pick to lead the State Department: Antony Blinken.

THIS HEADLINE: 'THIS IS ME': Rioters flaunt involvement in Capitol siege by the AP: http://bit.ly/36gIVuy

HAPPENING TODAY - DRAWING THE ETHICAL LINE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: As AI becomes increasingly ingrained in our everyday lives, there are concerns about biases in these systems and ethical standards to guide their fair use. Without an international framework or set of principles governing AI, the ethical guidelines for its use vary across countries and cities and sometimes even come down to individual policymakers, elected leaders, the private sector, and grassroots advocates' work. Join POLITICO for a conversation to explore the pace of global AI innovation and development and what it means for the future of ethical standards in this space. The virtual program features an executive conversation between POLITICO CEO Patrick Steel and Workday EVP of corporate affairs Jim Shaughnessy. REGISTER HERE.

TRANSITIONS

Rachel Bombach is now legislative director for Sen. Dianne Feinstein, after previously working as a legislative assistant covering foreign affairs and military issues for the California Democrat.

Louise Bentsen is now chief of staff to Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), the congressman announced Monday. Bentsen was formerly Gonzalez's LD.

Olivia Kurtz, who most recently served as the chief of staff to Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), is leaving the Hill after nearly two decades to become a principal at S-3 Group, where she says she is ready for a "new challenge."

Steve Guest is now a special adviser for comms for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), after previously working as the RNC's rapid response director.

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House is adjourned until Thursday.

The Senate convenes at 10:00 a.m.

AROUND THE HILL

10 a.m. After the Senate convenes, it will proceed to executive session to begin consideration of Biden's nomination for secretary of State, Antony Blinken.

TRIVIA

MONDAY'S WINNER: Ruth Simpson was the first person to correctly guess that President Kennedy turned down an invitation to speak at the 100th anniversary ceremony of the Gettysburg Address, which was at the request of the Gettysburg Centennial Commission and the National Park Service.

TODAY'S QUESTION: From Ruth: Who was the first president to have served in the House of Representatives. AND from your Huddle host: How many House members have served as president?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answer to obeavers@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

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