Tuesday, January 26, 2021

☕️ Feeling dangerous

GameStop goes on the ride of a lifetime...
January 26, 2021 View Online | Sign Up

Daily Brew

Masterworks

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MARKETS

NASDAQ

13,635.99

+ 0.69%

S&P

3,855.36

+ 0.36%

DOW

30,960.00

- 0.12%

GOLD

1,855.00

- 0.06%

10-YR

1.033%

- 5.30 bps

OIL

52.87

+ 1.15%

*As of market close

  • Markets: This section is getting more repetitive than "Baby Shark." The S&P and Nasdaq once again closed at all-time highs.
  • Covid-19 update: California lifted its stay-at-home order for all regions in the state as ICU projections look more favorable. Restaurants can now operate outdoor dining, and retailers including gyms can reopen with extra precautions.

STOCKS

Amateur Traders Woke Up Feeling Dangerous

Reddit meme

Toby Howell

Imagine if Tyler Durden, the Tasmanian Devil, and your bitcoin-obsessed cousin all started trading stocks. That's what yesterday was like as shares of struggling video game retailer GameStop jumped as much as 145% before closing the day 18% in the green. It's now up 307% on the year. 

What the heck is going on?

GameStop's stock initially popped on Jan. 11 after the company announced it was adding the savvy cofounder of e-comm pet brand Chewy to its board. But many professional investors took a look at GameStop's sales (down 40% in the last two years), debt ($486 million as of Oct. 2020), and product (physical video games), and opened short positions against the stock, betting that it would fall. 

Enter r/WallStreetBets: Users on the Reddit forum, which has come to embody the hyperactive amateur investor, banded together to spoil the short positions taken by "the establishment," causing a short squeeze of epic proportions.

  • A squeeze occurs when a heavily shorted stock rises, forcing the short sellers to buy more shares in order to minimize their losses...which drives the price even higher. 
  • In fact, the squeeze got so intense that it caused hedge fund Melvin Capital to seek emergency funding yesterday after incurring losses of 30%, mostly stemming from short positions, to start the year. 

Other r/WSB favorites (that are also among the most heavily shorted stocks) are Bed, Bath & Beyond and AMC Entertainment, which both jumped as much as 40% yesterday and have gained over 70% on the year. 

Zoom out: A hint of mania seems to be creeping into the stock market. Companies in the small-cap Russell 2000 index with a negative operating profit outperformed the broader index by nearly 50% over the last year, according to an analysis by Reuters. 

But for all the breathlessness, the market may not be as frenzied as it appears. The amount of cash parked in less risky money market funds or savings accounts is higher than before the pandemic, meaning everyone isn't actually opening up a Robinhood account. "The picture is nuanced—heavy activity in certain stocks and options, but less extreme overall investment flows," Andrew Sheets, a strategist for Morgan Stanley, told clients.

        

LEADERSHIP

Arrivals and Departures

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 17:  Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Y...

Win Mcnamee/Getty Images

Arrival

After winning confirmation from the Senate, Janet Yellen was sworn in as the first woman to serve as US Treasury secretary. Yellen's used to making history—in 2014, she became the country's first female Fed chair. 

  • Her priorities include coronavirus relief, confronting China, and climate change. Once she's got all those figured out, she'll focus on standard Treasury responsibilities, like tax policy and sanctions. 

Departure

Leon Black will step down as CEO of private equity giant Apollo Global Management after an internal review found he paid convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein more than $150 million—far more than was previously disclosed. The review found no evidence of wrongdoing on Black's part.

Marc Rowan, Apollo's cofounder, will become the next chief executive before July 31. Black will remain as chairman.

        

PHARMA

Moderna Works on Its 3-Pointer

Good news in the fight against teenage mutant ninja coronaviruses: Moderna says its vaccine still protects against the highly contagious B117 strain first identified in the UK and the B1351 variant first identified in South Africa. 

There's always a disclaimer

Against the B1351 strain, Moderna's vaccine is less effective than its usual 94%. So the company is looking to add a third booster shot (on top of the two it already requires) to increase its power. But even with reduced effectiveness, the vaccine produces enough of an antibody response to offer some protection. 

  • Pfizer and BioNTech have yet to release data showing whether their vaccine is equally effective against B1351. 

Zoom out: Virus mutations and accompanying vaccine tweaks are normal, though the recent pace of mutations has pushed up the timeline for expected changes, STAT reports.

+ While we're here…Moderna and Pfizer made it look easy, but sometimes pharma companies come up with pyrite. Yesterday, Merck dropped development of its two vaccine candidates because of insufficient immune responses.

        

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GOVERNMENT

Biden Makes Money Moves

On Day 6 of his presidency, Joe Biden hopped off an Ally Love HIIT and Hills ride and launched some new executive orders and initiatives, including...

Changing the $20 bill by resuming efforts to replace POTUS #7 Andrew Jackson with famed abolitionist Harriet Tubman. The change to the new $20 bill, which drops in 2030, was first proposed by the Obama administration then delayed by the Trump administration. 

Juicing domestic manufacturing by updating "Buy American" rules so the federal government sources more products from domestic companies. Biden's order also creates a White House position to oversee these rules and calls for a review of waivers and clarification around what portion of a good needs to be Made in the USA for it to count as "American."

Reinstating travel restrictions on visitors from 28 European countries, Brazil, and South Africa (that last one's new), where new coronavirus strains are spreading

Lifting a ban on transgender people serving openly in the military, which was put in place by Trump. 

For more...here's a running list of Biden's executive orders from NBC News.

        

MARKETING

Budweiser Says Clydesdales Can Work-From-Stable

Budweiser

YouTube/Budweiser

Yesterday, Budweiser said it wouldn't advertise its beer during this year's Super Bowl, citing the Covid-19 pandemic. Instead, it'll donate money and airtime to promote vaccine awareness.

Zoom out: Budweiser has appeared in more Super Bowls than Tom Brady. And its marketing game, honed through 37 consecutive years of SB commercials, consistently produces iconic moments (remember when you strictly answered the phone with "whasupppppp"?).

The brand's absence shows how the pandemic has disrupted the undisruptable. And it's not alone—Coca-Cola and PepsiCo won't be advertising their trademark sodas during the Super Bowl. Regulars Hyundai and Avocados from Mexico are also sitting this one out. 

But don't get the idea there's widespread advertiser pullback from the US' biggest TV event.

  • Anheuser-Busch, Budweiser's parent company, is still spending a boatload on Super Bowl advertising—just for other brands like Bud Light Seltzer Lemonade and Michelob Ultra. 
  • Plus, Pepsi is still sponsoring the halftime show. 

Bottom line: Despite the uncertainty around advertising during a pandemic, Super Bowl ad prices are actually up 7% this year, Marketing Brew reports. 

        

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Dominion Voting Systems filed a $1.3 billion defamation suit against Rudy Giuliani for pushing "demonstrably false" allegations of voter fraud. 
  • Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will resign today, then seek to form a new government. 
  • Four times as many jobs were lost last year as during the worst part of the Great Recession in 2009, according to the UN.
  • Kobe Bryant and eight others were killed in a helicopter crash one year ago today.
  • Twitter is piloting a new "community-driven approach" to misinformation called Birdwatch.
  • SPAC deals yesterday alone totaled more than $15 billion. 

BREW'S BETS

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The future of AI: Emerging Tech Brew asked nine experts to name the single biggest obstacle facing AI and algorithms over the next five years. Here are their answers.

Tech Tip Tuesday: You can watch Moonlight, Lady Bird, and more award-winning films for free on Kanopy if you have a public library card or are a student or professor at a university. Prefer reading? Library cards also let you access a library of free books on Kindle.

Clever charts: clever chart #1 and clever chart #2.

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GAMES

Guess the Company

A major company just dropped its stats for 2020. Can you guess the company? 

  • It employs 275,000 people worldwide and has 795 locations
  • Its gasoline business did $14 billion in sales
  • Sales of beer, wine, and spirits gained 17%
  • E-commerce grew 50%
  • It sold 101 million rotisserie chickens

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ANSWER

Costco

** A Note From Masterworks

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Written by Alex Hickey, Toby Howell, and Neal Freyman

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