Monday, January 25, 2021

Impeachment means 2022 is already here

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POLITICO Nightly logo

By Renuka Rayasam

Presented by Facebook

With help from Myah Ward

THREE HUGE WEEKS — Before they try to get reelected in the midterm elections on Nov. 8, 2022, nearly three dozen senators will have to navigate the next three weeks, a calendar that includes confirming President Joe Biden's Cabinet nominees, negotiations over pandemic relief and former President Donald Trump's second impeachment trial. The House delivered its article of impeachment to the Senate tonight.

The coming weeks are all but certain to loom large over whether senators in both parties up for reelection —14 Democrats and 20 Republicans — will survive brutal primary challenges in solidly red and blue states or a tough general election fight in swing states.

Already some lawmakers are tapping out.

Republican senators know that voting to convict Trump would almost certainly earn them a primary challenger. Just ask Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in the House. But senators will also have to answer to moderate voters who are expected to still be horrified that Trump-supporting rioters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6.

Ohio Republican Rob Portman surprised many when he announced today that he was not running for a third term . The timing of the decision means that Portman, known as a moderate Republican and a key part of Sen. Mitch McConnell's caucus, can decide whether to convict Trump without worrying about electoral consequences.

Capitol Police officers stand in a doorway to the Rotunda before the impeachment managers from the House of Representatives deliver the articles of impeachment to the Senate.

Capitol Police officers stand in a doorway to the Rotunda before the impeachment managers from the House of Representatives deliver the articles of impeachment to the Senate. | Getty Images

Even before the Trump trial, pandemic relief is likely to provide the first big test of how Republicans make the case that they should win back the majority in two years. "There's a tension between wanting to deliver and making an argument that Republicans should be back in control," Congress reporter Marianne LeVine told Nightly today.

If they stymie Biden's $1.9 trillion proposal, they could argue that Democrats can't get things done. But Indiana Republican Todd Young, who is trying to win his second term in 2022, is taking the opposite approach: He's part of a bipartisan group of 16 senators trying to hammer out a more targeted relief bill that they can sell to people at home. If a slimmed-down bill passes, he could argue that he served as a check on the Biden administration's more left-leaning aspirations.

Democrats likewise have to figure out how to preserve their no-margin-for-error majority. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock will be on the ballot again after winning special elections.

And New York's Chuck Schumer has his own fight for survival. Less than a week into his tenure as Senate majority leader, Schumer still has to hash out a power sharing agreement with McConnell, who wants a pledge to preserve the filibuster as part of the agreement. If Schumer holds out, Republicans would retain control of key committee positions for now, potentially torpedoing some of Biden's nominees like his budget office pick Neera Tanden or his HHS Secretary nominee Xavier Becerra. But if he gives in, Schumer could invite a longshot primary challenge to his left. Either way, the choice may not be up to him: West Virginia's Joe Manchin ruled out killing the filibuster in an interview with POLITICO today.

Listen to Renu's chat with Marianne about which Cabinet members will get confirmed this week, what snags Democrats are hitting before they can get the gavel on committees and the reaction to Portman's retirement.

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How the Senate will shape a Biden presidency

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. A German effort to return objects looted by Nazis hits a roadblock: a foundation with a looted violin is refusing to pay. Reach out at rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

 

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First In Nightly

DOSAGE DETOUR — Some states trying to stretch their limited supply of coronavirus vaccines are planning to reroute doses earmarked for nursing homes, as they face mounting pressure to get shots into arms more quickly, health care reporters Rachel Roubein and Brianna Ehley write.

The states say tens of thousands of coronavirus shots designated for nursing homes and other long-term care facilities through a federal program are going unused, while health officials are speeding through the weekly supply of vaccines for the broader public after vastly expanding eligibility for the shots. States including Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and Oklahoma are now insisting they must reclaim a portion of shots meant for the long-term care facilities or refuse allotting doses to them until they use up more supply.

"We are stressing to our districts to get vaccine moved from freezer to Oklahomans, preferably within a seven-day time period," said Keith Reed, deputy commissioner of Oklahoma's health department. "And this vaccine is really just sitting right now."

 

TRACK THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION: A new president occupies the White House and he is already making changes. What are some of the key moments from Biden's first week in office? Find out in Transition Playbook, our scoop-filled newsletter tracking the appointments, people, and emerging power centers of the first 100 days of the new administration. Subscribe today.

 
 
The Global Fight

OLD VIRUS, NEW TRICKS Moderna today said laboratory tests show its vaccine still offers protection against the new variants of the-no-longer-all-that-novel coronavirus. But Moderna also said its vaccine is more effective against the variant first found in the U.K. than the one in South Africa. The Biden administration is collaborating with the company to develop booster shots — one specifically aimed at the variant in South Africa.

The news follows a study from researchers in South Africa who took blood samples from 44 people who had recovered from Covid. Half of the people didn't have the necessary antibodies to protect against the new strain, while the other half had reduced antibody levels. Lead researcher Penny Moore, a virologist at South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases, talked with Nightly's Myah Ward about what researchers know about the variants so far. This conversation has been edited.

Can you explain why it appears that this particular mutation may allow the virus to evade antibody treatments and vaccines?

In a very simple sense, it's changing its coat at exactly the spot where the antibodies prefer to bind to the virus.

But what's happened is that the amino acid that sits at that location has completely changed its charge. It's gone from being a negatively charged thing to being a positively charged thing. And essentially, that switch is enough to deflect antibodies that are trying to bind to it.

Are researchers concerned they might see the same effects with the variant in Brazil?

Potentially, because it shares one of the mutations that we, and many others, have shown is problematic in the South African variant.

The fact that it's popping up independently in two different lineages is also an indication that it's an efficient way for the virus to escape.

Today the variant first detected in Brazil was found in Minnesota. And Biden is said to be banning travel from South Africa. Do you think that variant is already in the U.S., too?

I'd be astonished if it's not.

I would bet my children's education on the fact that there are variants circulating in the U.S. With the number of infections going on constantly in the U.S., it is inevitable that there are variants emerging in the U.S. and that just haven't been picked up yet.

What do your study results mean for the vaccine booster shots? An entirely new vaccine?

Potentially all of the above.

Obviously, that makes rolling out vaccines in countries such as mine very difficult — where we already have an infrastructural problem in rolling out a vaccine. Three shots, four shots, that makes life very, very difficult, particularly for less resourced countries.

But the first thing we need to do is confirm that it does result in reduced vaccine efficacy.

They're lab studies, and they come with big caveats. We don't know how well that translates in real life — to real people being exposed. Unfortunately, we don't know how much antibody is enough to protect. So we don't know if the losses that we're seeing will really translate into reduced vaccine efficacy.

When will we know whether or not these findings translate in real life, as you put it?

It should be a matter of weeks, because many of these vaccines trials are coming to an end now. We'll be able to take the viruses that infected people who had the vaccine and sequence them and see whether they were the old variant or the new variant. And more simply, we'll be able to see whether the vaccines worked in areas where the new variant is increasingly emerging.

There are a lot of unknowns with the mutations. Why is it still important to get the vaccine?

If I was offered a vaccine, now in South Africa where the new variant is coming to dominate, I would take the vaccine, no doubt about it. Whichever vaccine I could get, I would take it. We do not know yet whether we've lost efficacy or even just reduced efficacy.

And the way we stop more variants from coming out is by stopping the number of infections that we have. So even if we vaccinate with a vaccine that is less than perfect, as long as we start bringing down the numbers, then we can get this virus under control.

 

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Around the Nation

RESTRICT AND REPLACE — If you can't win, change the rules? "Republicans now are reexamining election laws across the country, especially in light of President Trump's election fraud claims that are completely bunk," campaign reporter Zach Montellaro says in the latest POLITICO Dispatch. Zach reports on how Georgia is leading the effort to push for new voting restrictions.

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Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast

Palace Intrigue

THE CASE OF THE MISSING BUTTON ... SOLVED! A few news outlets and journalists reported last week that the red "Diet Coke" button that Trump had on the Resolute Desk was nowhere to be found after Biden was photographed without it last Thursday. But a White House official, when asked by POLITICO's Daniel Lippman, clarified that the usher call button is actually still on the president's desk.

The person unfortunately wouldn't say what Biden will use the button for. "Don't have anything for you on that," the official said. Nightly has previously reported that Biden is a big fan of Orange Gatorade. Trump used the button to order Diet Cokes. "Everyone does get a little nervous when I press that button," Trump once told a journalist.

A former Trump White House official said Trump didn't actually use the famous button very often. He would usually just verbally ask the valets, who were around all day, for what he needed. The former official said there's another similar button next to the chair by the fireplace.

So if Biden needs something during his next meeting with a world leader, he could press that button too.

Ask The Audience

DEAR NIGHTLY — Curious about safer ways to shake up your pandemic routine? Or how to navigate daily life during this stage of coronavirus? Do you have a question about the pandemic or the virus that hasn't been answered? We'll try to answer it. Send your thoughts to nightly@politico.com , and we'll publish answers to select ones later this week.

 

GET THE SCOOP ON CONGRESS IN 2021 : Get the inside scoop on the Schumer/McConnell dynamic, the new Senate Bipartisan Group, and what is really happening inside the House Democratic Caucus and Republican Conference. From Schumer to Pelosi, McConnell to McCarthy and everyone in between, our new Huddle author Olivia Beavers brings the latest from Capitol Hill with assists from POLITICO's deeply sourced Congress team. Subscribe to Huddle, the indispensable guide to Congress.

 
 
On The Economy

MADAM SECRETARY — The Senate tonight overwhelmingly confirmed Janet Yellen's nomination for Treasury secretary. The vote clears the way for Yellen to begin working with Congress to advance Biden's plan for an additional $1.9 trillion economic relief package.

JACKSON TO TUBMAN IS BACK Biden is looking to resume work to redesign the $20 bill to feature abolitionist Harriet Tubman.

"The Treasury Department is taking steps to resume efforts to put Harriet Tubman on the front of the new $20 notes," White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters today. She added that America's currency should "reflect the history and diversity of our country, and Harriet Tubman's image gracing the new $20 note would certainly reflect that."

Nightly video player on Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill

Nightly Number

56 percent

The percentage of Americans who approve of the House of Representatives impeaching Trump for his role in inciting the insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6, according to a Monmouth University poll . The figure represents a slight uptick compared with his first impeachment — 53 percent of those surveyed by Monmouth University in January 2020 approved.

Parting Words

UPDATE OR UPSHOT Health care editor at large Joanne Kenen emails:

Last week , I wrote about how time-consuming, frustrating, fruitless and anxiety-producing it had been to get my 86-year-old mom an appointment for a coronavirus vaccination. Just as it posted, my mom got an email from the New Jersey vaccination website. She's still pretty healthy and can use her computer — but I still ran upstairs to help. The site was a tad glitchy (telling her she'd have to travel 100 miles for the shot before offering her one a mere 9.6 miles away, offering a time slot and then telling her it was unavailable) and the 80-second window to book the appointment, type in a code, etc., might be pretty challenging for other older people.

She got the shot Sunday but they didn't give her an appointment for the second shot, which needs to be in four weeks. She received an email about scheduling it last night, from another glitchy signup site that won't let us book it. At least we have four weeks before we have to panic.

In the meantime, having her get even one shot brought an incredible, deep sense of relief.

It's also, I have learned as I work at her dining room table within earshot of the kitchen landline (remember those?), absolutely, positively the only thing the 80-plus crowd talks about these days. Every phone call, every freezing cold, socially distanced outdoor encounter all vaccines, all the time. Who got Pfizer. Who got Moderna. Who can't get through the website, whose son-in-law figured it out. Who got a call through at midnight, who started dialing at 6 a.m. Sort of like Peyton Place for the older set, but instead of immorality, the hot topic is immunization.

 

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