Monday, January 25, 2021

Biden to lift transgender troop ban — Guard to stay in D.C. a while longer — Cooper headlines POLITICO military space event

Presented by Northrop Grumman: Delivered daily by 10 a.m., Morning Defense examines the latest news in defense policy and politics.
Jan 25, 2021 View in browser
 
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By Bryan Bender and Sarah Cammarata

Presented by

With Jacqueline Feldscher and Connor O'Brien

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Quick Fix

President Joe Biden is expected to lift the ban on transgender troops as early as today, re-establishing the Obama-era policy on open service.

The National Guard deployment in D.C. is likely to last through mid-March amid concerns about possible threats during a second impeachment trial.

Join POLITICO this week for a live event on national security and space policy in the Biden administration with Space Force architect Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.).

IT'S MONDAY AND WELCOME BACK TO MORNING DEFENSE, where we remember the victims of the Marias Massacre , or more aptly, the Baker Massacre. On Jan. 23, 1870, U.S. Army Major Eugene Baker ordered his troops to wipe out hundreds of sleeping Blackfeet Indians — most of them women and children — in northern Montana. "After the firing was over, the soldiers gathered up the bedding, clothing and subsistence, and piled them up with a lot of wood and set fire to the pile and burned everything up," their guide recounted in testimony before the Indian Claims Commission . "I myself counted 217 bodies." No one was ever court martialed or disciplined. We're always on the lookout for tips, pitches and feedback. Email us at bbender@politico.com and scammarata@politico.com. And follow on Twitter @bryandbender, @sarahjcamm, @morningdefense and @politicopro.

 

A message from Northrop Grumman:

A squadron of unmanned aircraft working together as one is impossible. Until it's not. The Northrop Grumman MQ-Next multi-mission autonomous strike aircraft is capable of teamwork, extreme mission endurance and carrying out missions even if human communication is lost. Learn more about autonomy.

 
Driving the Day

'KIND OF GOOFY': It's the latest complication of a 50-50 Senate split: Democrats hold the Senate majority, but Republicans are still in charge of committees while Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell negotiate a power-sharing agreement, POLITICO's Marianne LeVine reports.

And those talks are already hitting a snag. McConnell is calling for the resolution to include protections for the legislative filibuster, which Democrats have rejected. Meanwhile, the Senate is preparing to hold a second impeachment trial for former President Donald Trump.

"It's kind of goofy at the moment," acknowledged Senate Minority Whip John Thune.

SASC in limbo: The holdup means that Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, has still had to call Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) "Mr. Chairman," even though Reed expected to be in charge by now.

Happening Today

The German Marshall Fund of the United States hosts a roundtable on transatlantic security with former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel at 9 a.m.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies convenes a discussion on Army modernization with Gen. John Murray, head of the Army Futures Command, at 11 a.m.

 

THE UNOFFICIAL GUIDE TO OFFICIAL WASHINGTON: The new Playbook team got off to fast start last week with a series of big scoops. The reporting foursome of Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Tara Palmeri will roam every corner of Washington, bringing you the big stories you need to know–and the insider nuggets that you want to know–about the new power centers and power players in Washington. "This town" has changed. And no one covers this town like Playbook. Subscribe today.

 
 
Happening This Week

#POLITICOSPACE IS THE PLACE: Join us on Wednesday for a POLITICO Live event, sponsored by the nonprofit Aerospace Corp., on the Biden administration's national security space policy. The event will feature Cooper, chair of the House Armed Services Committee's strategic forces panel and Victoria Samson, Washington director for the Secure World Foundation, among others. Tune in at 1 p.m.

Some other highlights this week:

On Tuesday, the American Enterprise Institute holds a webinar with Vice Adm. Andrew Lewis, commander of the Navy's 2nd Fleet, at 10:30 a.m.

The Mitchell Institute hosts a webinar with Gen. James Dickinson, head of U.S. Strategic Command, at 10 a.m.

On Wednesday, the Association of Old Crows will host a discussion with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown at 1 p.m.

And the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee holds its nomination hearing for Denis McDonough to be the next secretary of Veterans Affairs at 3 p.m.

On Thursday, the Office of Strategic Services Society hosts a discussion with former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and former Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Mike Vickers at 6 p.m.

On Friday, the American Bar Association hosts a seminar titled "Civil-Military Relations and the Law, Post-2020" at 11 a.m.

And the Atlantic Council hosts a webinar on U.S. military involvement in the Middle East with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) at 3 p.m.

Check out the Pro calendar for a full schedule of events.

 

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Pentagon

AUSTIN TAKES CHARGE: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin got right to work on Friday after he was overwhelmingly confirmed by the Senate by a vote of 93-2, our colleague Connor O'Brien and your Morning D anchor reported.

"The way I see it, my job as Secretary of Defense is to make you more effective at doing yours," he wrote in his "Day One Message" to the troops. "That means ensuring you have the tools, technology, weapons, and training to deter and defeat our enemies. It means establishing sound policy and strategy and assigning you clear missions. It means putting a premium on cooperation with our allies and partners. And it means living up to our core values, the same ones our fellow citizens expect of us."

On Saturday he also ordered the department to quickly review its efforts to combat sexual assault and harassment.

Austin is asking all major Pentagon components to provide a summary by Feb. 5 of all actions they have taken in the last year to address sexual assault and harassment. He also made a round of calls over the weekend to the head of NATO and his counterparts in South Korea, the United Kingdom and Japan.

Related: For 1st Black Pentagon chief, racism challenge is personal, via The Associated Press.

And: Macron and Biden discuss NATO, climate change in first call, via Bloomberg.

NEXT UP — LIFTING TRANSGENDER BAN: Biden is expected today to reverse the ban on transgender personnel serving in the military that was imposed by President Donald Trump in 2017, which happened just a year after then-President Barack Obama mandated transgender troops be allowed to serve.

One knowledgeable source tells Morning D that the ban reversal is likely to come today, when Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley meet with Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in the Oval Office at 11:30 a.m.

"It's a uniquely simple opportunity to modify military policy and the reason is that the gold-standard inclusive policy is already in effect," Aaron Belkin, director of the Palm Center, a think tank that studies gender and sexuality in the military, tells us. "It is already on the books. And so all the administration has to do is cancel the Trump ban. They don't need to put anything new in place. They can literally take an eraser to the regulations."

Afghanistan

'INTENTION TO REVIEW': The Biden administration says it is reviewing the peace agreement with the Taliban that laid the groundwork for withdrawing all American forces from Afghanistan by May.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan, in a call with his Afghan counterpart Hamdullah Mohib on Friday, "made clear the United States' intention to review the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban agreement, including to assess whether the Taliban was living up to its commitments to cut ties with terrorist groups, to reduce violence in Afghanistan, and to engage in meaningful negotiations with the Afghan government and other stakeholders," National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said in a statement.

Related: Pakistan urges Biden to stick to Afghan troop withdrawal, via Al Jazeera.

And: The forgotten people fighting the forever war, via The Atlantic

 

HAPPENING TUESDAY - DRAWING THE ETHICAL LINE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: As AI becomes increasingly ingrained in our everyday lives, there are concerns about biases in these systems and ethical standards to guide their fair use. Without an international framework or set of principles governing AI, the ethical guidelines for its use vary across countries and cities and sometimes even come down to individual policymakers, elected leaders, the private sector, and grassroots advocates' work. Join POLITICO for a conversation to explore the pace of global AI innovation and development and what it means for the future of ethical standards in this space. The virtual program features an executive conversation between POLITICO CEO Patrick Steel and Workday EVP of corporate affairs Jim Shaughnessy. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
National Guard

DIGGING IN: Trump's upcoming Senate impeachment trial means as many as 5,000 National Guard troops will remain on duty through mid-March to deter violence, POLITICO's Andrew Desiderio, Lara Seligman and Natasha Bertrand report.

But let's hope that also means more preparations are being made to ensure the U.S. Capitol complex can accommodate such a large force. Hundreds of troops who descended on D.C. after the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol have tested positive for Covid-19, and concerns are growing that the deployment is turning into a superspreader event, the trio reported separately.

After thousands of troops were forced to sleep in an unheated parking garage, Biden also called Gen. Daniel Hokanson, head of the National Guard, to apologize, while first lady Jill Biden paid a visit to some of the troops on Friday.

Related: Several governors order National Guard troops out of D.C., via POLITICO.

Photo gallery: The Capitol under guard, via POLITICO.

Industry Intel

'CLOUD OF UNCERTAINTY': The Pentagon's top five contractors will report fourth quarter earnings this week, along with their full 2020 round-ups. The impact of Covid-19 is again expected to be a big topic among CEOs and investors.

Investors are also eager to hear CEOs' expectations for the new administration, including what they expect from the fiscal 2022 and 2023 defense budgets and all the chatter about Biden's plans to replace the nuclear arsenal, said Byron Callan, an analyst with Capital Alpha Partners.

"That cloud of uncertainty is going to hang over the group until we get some clearer markers out of the Biden administration about what they're going to do and what Congress will let them do," he said.

Here's the earnings schedule: Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin will release their earnings on Tuesday, Boeing and General Dynamics on Wednesday and Northrop Grumman on Thursday.

COVID LAWSUIT PROTECTIONS UNLIKELY: Now that Democrats control the Senate, it's doubtful Congress will consider protections for companies against lawsuits over exposures to Covid-19 — an issue that nearly derailed last year's Covid-19 relief bill, our colleague Jacqueline Feldscher reports.

Businesses worry that they will be sued if employees catch Covid-19 while at work, even if they are following safety protocols such as masks and social distancing. But Democrats criticized past efforts to provide liability relief as giving employers a free pass to put workers in danger.

"While it was downplayed by some, there are real concerns over frivolous lawsuits and liability protections," said Wes Hallman, the senior vice president of strategy and policy at the National Defense Industrial Association. "The Senate flipping means that could get less of a hearing. I hope that's not true."

 

A message from Northrop Grumman:

How can artificial intelligence increase human effectiveness?
At Northrop Grumman, we're pushing the boundaries of unmanned aircraft capabilities, and the result is our groundbreaking MQ-Next multi-mission autonomous strike aircraft. The unmanned aircraft work together in a squadron of identical aircraft, moving in perfect harmony and staying connected even in low level communication environments. It can autonomously allocate tasks between forces and is capable of changing mission mid-flight. Plus, with a mission endurance of over 24 hours and long unrefueled range, it can tackle missions more extreme than any other aircraft we've built. Learn more about autonomy.

 
Speed Read

Lawmakers move to oust extremists from military: The Hill

White House launches 'comprehensive threat assessment' on domestic extremism: POLITICO

The border emergency is canceled, but thousands of troops there aren't scheduled to go home: Military Times

"The president threw us under the bus": embedding with Pentagon leadership during Trump's chaotic last week: Vanity Fair

Sen. Tom Cotton campaigned on his "experience as an Army Ranger" — but he didn't have any: Salon

Russia welcomes U.S. offer to extend nuclear treaty: The Associated Press

Putin's Russia faces rising discontent: The Wall Street Journal

China flies warplanes near Taiwan, prompting U.S. warning: The Wall Street Journal

Israel allows U.S. to deploy Iron Dome missile defense in the Gulf: Haaretz

War avoided, Biden transition brings 'opportunity' for new Iran relations, top general says: Defense One

Iranian supreme leader's tweet suggests a revenge drone assassination of a golfing Trump: The Drive

Why was the U.S. Air Force B-21 first flight delayed? Aviation Week

For wars of the future the Pentagon looks to distant past: the B-52: The Wall Street Journal

Walter Bernstein, scriptwriter who skewered McCarthy-era blacklist in 'The Front,' dies at 101: The Washington Post

Iran wants the nuclear deal it made, by Mohammad Javad Zarif: Foreign Affairs

Why the United States should support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, by William Perry: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

What our forever wars will look like under Biden: The Nation

— BOOK REVIEW: "America and Iran": The New York Times

 

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Bryan Bender @bryandbender

Connor O'Brien @connorobriennh

Jacqueline Feldscher @jacqklimas

Lara Seligman @laraseligman

 

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