Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. expected to stay highly elevated at 775K, down only slightly from 778K … ISM Services Survey at 10:00 a.m. expected to dip to 56.0 from 56.6 … THE RISKS AHEAD — S&P's Beth Ann Bovino and Satyam Panday: "The U.S. economy, which has recouped two-thirds of the economic losses from the COVID-19 recession, is now showing signs of weakness this holiday season in the midst of climbing COVID-19 infection rates. - S&P Global Economics expects real GDP to contract 3.9% this year and not get back to precrisis levels until the third quarter of 2021 "The U.S. unemployment rate won't reach its precrisis low until after 2023. - We have said, since June, that it's not a far-fetched possibility the U.S. economy could see a scenario of no more fiscal stimulus and a COVID-19 resurgence that cripples growth in the fourth quarter, which we are seeing now." NEW ON THE PODS — Listen to the newest episode of POLITICO's Global Translations podcast, where hosts Luiza Savage and Ryan Heath look at cobalt and how supply challenges could impact tech and the green energy transition. The show airs this Wednesday, check it out here." ALSO NEW: The Becker Friedman Institute (BFI) at UChicago will launch a new economics podcast, The Pie "which will draw from the expertise of the full Chicago Economics community to address economic issues of the day." Check it out here. HAPPY/SAD NEWS: NANCY COOK TO BLOOMBERG — Very sorry to see our wonderful colleague Nancy Cook moving on but she's landed a sweet gig at Bloomberg, per an internal memo: "We are so excited to announce that Nancy Cook … will be joining our White House team to cover the Biden administration. "Nancy is someone whose work we've admired for years. Her deep sourcing inside the Trump White House was matched only by a keen eye and deft writing that combined to bring the inner workings of the administration to life" FIRST LOOK: BANKS FACE TOUGH 2021 — Per Deloitte's 2021 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook out today: "[B]ank leaders will likely need to make some hard decisions on optimal talent models." … 35% of respondents indicated their firms plan to rationalize compensation and headcount over the next six to 12 months. In addition, 33% plan to "rationalize their real estate footprint," while 42% plan to implement technology that "enhances efficiency." In an update from our forecasts in July, we're now estimating that the US banking industry may have to provision for a total of $318 billion in net loan losses from 2020 to 2022, representing 3.2% of loans" SENATE NARROWLY VOTES TO ADVANCE FED NOMINEE WALLER — Our Victoria Guida: "The Senate … voted 50-45 to advance President Donald Trump's nomination of Christopher Waller to be a board member at the Federal Reserve … "Waller, who serves as research director at the St. Louis Fed, saw his candidacy held up for over a year after being tapped for the central bank alongside Judy Shelton, whose unorthodox views in favor of the gold standard and shifting policy stances have stalled her nomination. His confirmation and her rejection would leave … Biden only one empty seat on the Fed's seven-member board to fill immediately" More from Victoria on Waller : No Democrats voted to advance Waller's nomination, despite the fact that some did in committee back in February. But we've had a pandemic since then, and according to a Senate Dem aide, it's partially because they're worried that Waller might not support strong and creative actions to support the economy" |
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