Thursday, December 3, 2020

Axios Generate: China's coal finance — OPEC+ meeting drama — Battery storage surge

1 big thing: Why some Asian countries keep building coal plants | Thursday, December 03, 2020
 
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Generate
By Ben Geman ·Dec 03, 2020

Good morning! Today's Smart Brevity count: 1,117 words, 4 minutes.

šŸ„µ 2020 will likely be among the three warmest years on record, per World Meteorological Organization analysis that also notes, "the last five-year (2016–2020) and 10-year (2011–2020) averages are also the warmest on record."

šŸ›¢️"OPEC+ is closing in on a deal to gently ease output curbs after days of fractious negotiations that revealed deep cracks at the core of the cartel." (Bloomberg)

šŸŽ¶ And at this moment in 1976, Brick had the #1 song on Billboard's R&B charts with today's intro tune...

 
 
1 big thing: Why some Asian countries keep building coal plants

Coal-fired power's persistence in Asia is a big climate problem, but the reasons some countries can't quit coal — even as other parts of the world are gradually breaking up with the fuel — aren't always so obvious.

Driving the news: Enter a new paper in Energy Research & Social Science that explores what's driving demand for China's financing of coal-fired power plants in the region, even as other power sources are cost-competitive.

Why it matters: It notes building coal plants that lack CO2-trapping tech is "incompatible" with holding global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels — the very longshot goal of the Paris agreement.

And the International Energy Agency's main projection shows coal demand growth in India and Southeast Asia over the coming decade, even as it levels off in China and falls elsewhere.

The big picture: Here are some findings from the study led by Tufts University scholars and focuses on India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh...

  • China is a willing source of finance, even as multilateral development banks have moved away from coal-fired power, and Chinese policy does not push investors and companies to go beyond host-country environmental standards.
  • There's a suite of existing relationships between Chinese financiers and suppliers on one hand and countries' energy ministries and power companies.

Yes, but: Looking only at Chinese decisions provides a very incomplete picture, because countries receiving finance tend to have several characteristics that favor coal.

  • The list includes absent or limited emissions control policies tailored specifically to the power sector.
  • There are also "monopolistic utility structures," protections for coal-related jobs, and more.
  • Costs for clean power sources are "perceived to be a barrier," though India's posture is changing.

The intrigue: The analysis also explores wider socio-political forces.

For instance, they see policymakers in countries building new plants acting under a "stop rule" mindset in which they make decisions "once a minimally-acceptable option emerges."

In these cases, that means readily available Chinese finance and cheap tech that helps provide a solution to fast-rising demand.

The bottom line: China's Belt & Road Initiative could do more to unlock markets for Chinese clean energy tech while also meeting the needs of developing countries in a climate-friendly way.

But this will only happen if countries "exercise more agency and/or if Chinese overseas investment policies change," the paper argues.

What we're watching: The incoming Biden administration. Per the Financial Times, President-elect Joe Biden has "vowed to hold China accountable for coal investments through its Belt and Road programme."

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2. A nuclear vote that previews debates to come
In this illustration, a three leaf clover is shaped like a nuclear power symbol.

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

 

Axios' Amy Harder reports...A bipartisan Senate bill subsidizing existing nuclear power plants to keep them running and backing new nuclear technologies passed a congressional committee on Wednesday.

Why it matters: It won't become law before year's end, but it's likely to resurface in 2021 as an example of the type of bipartisan compromise expected under a divided Congress with President-elect Joe Biden in the White House.

Where it stands: 16 senators on the Committee on Environment and Public Works supported the measure, and five (all Democrats) opposed the bill, called America's Nuclear Infrastructure Act.

  • A spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) declined to comment on whether he would bring it to the floor before this Congress wraps in the coming weeks, but it's unlikely.
  • The firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note to clients that it's likely to be reintroduced and "may represent an initial area of potential cooperation. Indeed, this year's action may be positioning it for inclusion in next year's likely climate-conscious stimulus debate."

The intrigue: The bill garnered an unusually broad coalition of lawmakers and interest groups, including labor groups and some environmentalists, who support the jobs and carbon-free power nuclear provides.

Yes, but: At least two letters were sent by two different sets of environmental groups expressing opposition, including some of the most influential organizations.

Quick take: Given Democrats still control the House, it's likely any deal over this measure in the next Congress would need to have a hefty renewable-energy component too to pass.

Read more

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3. Electric vehicle news: Tesla, GM, Lucid

Markets: "Goldman Sachs upgraded red hot electric vehicle stock Tesla Wednesday after the bell, saying in a note to clients that the stock could surge more than 30% from here." (CNBC)

Views: Ken Morris, a senior General Motors EV exec, tells Axios' Dan Primack that he sees eventual consolidation ahead for the sector that's now flush with startups, many of which are going public.

  • "I would expect that because it's so capital-intensive to build battery packs and build ground-up architectures so that you use those battery packs as efficiently as possible," he said on the latest episode of the Axios Re:Cap podcast.
  • šŸŽ§They cover a lot more ground, and you can listen to the whole discussion here.

Manufacturing: "Electric automaker Lucid Motors has completed the initial phase of its $700 million factory, a milestone required to begin production of its first luxury all-electric Air sedan this spring." (TechCrunch)

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A message from General Motors

You answered the call
 
 

When America needed ventilators, masks, and face shields, GM and UAW workers answered the call. You delivered 30K critical care ventilators in just 4 months. You used your skills to help save lives.

So from GM, from the UAW, and from your nation: thank you.

 
 
4. Energy storage surges despite COVID-19
Data: U.S. Energy Storage Monitor report by Wood Mackenzie and the U.S. Energy Storage Association; Chart: Axios Visuals

Amy reports...America deployed a record amount of energy storage in the third quarter of 2020, increasing 240% over the previous high set in Q2, new data shows.

Why it matters: Storing electricity to back up wind and solar is key to ensuring increases in these variable energy sources goes smoothly. That upsurge is a central part of combating climate change.

Driving the news: New battery storage installments in Q3 reached a record 476 megawatts, according to a report released Wednesday by Wood Mackenzie and the U.S. Energy Storage Association.

What they're saying: "These eye-catching deployment totals represent only the beginning of a long-anticipated scale up for the U.S. storage market," said Dan Finn-Foley, Wood Mackenzie's lead storage expert.

"Considering the scale of systems anticipated for 2021 we do not expect this record, as remarkable as it is, to stand for long."

How it works: Battery price declines and supportive government policies are behind the big rise, which would have been even larger absent the pandemic.

  • Most storage, and the majority of the increase, is coming from large-scale systems installed directly onto the electricity grid (as opposed to, say, a 5-kilowatt Tesla Powerwall that individuals can install in their homes).
  • For context, 476 megawatts, when deployed, equals about 95,000 of those Tesla Powerwalls.
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5. Catch up fast: Offshore wind, shale, China

Election 2020: The developer of Vineyard Wind, a big proposed project off the Massachusetts coast, is pausing its effort to win a federal green light — and may have brightened its prospects.

  • Why it matters: It's slated to be the first big coastal wind development in the U.S., which has lagged far behind Europe.
  • "The first commercial-scale US offshore wind power project has delayed its application for federal approval in a move that will leave a final decision in the hands of a renewables-friendly Biden administration," the Financial Times reports.

Oil-and-gas: "Pioneer Natural Resources Co. is targeting a 25% drop in greenhouse-gas emissions per unit of oil and natural gas production by 2030." (Bloomberg)

Climate: "China's CO2 emissions have rebounded from a steep, but short-lived, fall due to the Covid-19 lockdown to reach a new record high, analysis of the latest quarterly data reveals." (Carbon Brief)

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A message from General Motors

These videos are preparing kids to be future engineers
 
 

Using everyday items, kids can recreate STEM projects in the comfort of their homes.

Here's how: Electrifying Engineering, a series of online videos from GM, is helping students learn about electric car motors, autonomous vehicle sensors, electric car charging and more. Get started.

 
 

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