Monday, November 23, 2020

Trump’s path to nullify the election gets slimmer yet — Outgoing president threatens the future of the GOP — Republican super PACs book $70 million for Georgia Senate races

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Nov 23, 2020 View in browser
 
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By Zach Montellaro

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Quick Fix

— President Donald Trump's attempts to usurp the results of an election he lost hit several barriers over the weekend, with certification in Georgia and a losing lawsuit in Pennsylvania.

— Trump is threatening Republican election officials who don't play along with his baseless claims of systemic fraud, while GOP officials worry about what a restless Trump out of the White House would do to party politics.

— Republican super PACs made a major buy in the pair of Georgia Senate runoffs, dropping $70 million on TV reservations.

Good Monday morning. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com, amutnick@politico.com and srodriguez@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin, @allymutnick and @sabrod123.

Days until the LA-05 runoff: 12

Days until the Georgia Senate runoffs: 43

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections: 343

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 715

TopLine

THE RESULTS — Trump's attempts to override the election ran into significant barriers over the weekend, with Georgia certifying results and a resounding defeat in court in Pennsylvania. And as this week progresses, several other states could also certify their results.

In Georgia, Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger certified results on Friday, tossing aside Trump's unfounded claims of fraud in the state. "Working as an engineer throughout my life, I live by the motto that numbers don't lie," Raffensperger, said at a brief press conference. "The numbers reflect the verdict of the people, not a decision by the secretary of state's office, or of courts, or of either campaigns." And GOP Gov. Brian Kemp later certified the state's Electoral College electors. (Kemp did so quite begrudgingly, seemingly doing his best to avoid getting sucked into the same maelstrom in which Raffensperger is at the center.)

Trump requested the recount to which he is entitled in Georgia late on Saturday. But the Trump campaign and both of the state's Republican senators — Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue — want to go beyond the recount and have called for an audit of signatures. "We must match and verify absentee ballot signatures to their corresponding voter registration signatures, investigate all voting irregularities, and count only the votes that were legally cast," Loeffler tweeted. But that's not what will happen in the recount: The recount will be a machine recount, which followed a hand re-tally of the ballots during the statewide audit, and there's no way to tie signatures back to the individual ballots. Signatures in the state are checked twice — when a voter initially requests a ballot, and on the outer envelope when the ballot is returned — but after that the envelope is separated from the ballot to ensure ballot secrecy.

Today is another big day for certification. Michigan's state board of canvassers is set to meet. There's been considerable fighting within the state over if the board should indeed certify its results. "By law and by practice, certification by the Board of State Canvassers — comprised of two Democratic appointees and two Republican ones — is supposed to be a routine sign-off," the Detroit Free Press' Paul Egan, Dave Boucher and Clara Hendrickson wrote. But, as the Freep wrote, "these are not normal times." Both the national and state Republican parties called for certification to be delayed, POLITICO's Stephanie Beasley reported, alleging widespread malfeasance with scant evidence. Relatedly: Trump failed to convince Republican legislative leaders in the state that they should intervene or that there was widespread fraud in the state after a Friday White House meeting, POLITICO's Nick Niedzwiadek, Gabby Orr and Meridith McGraw wrote.

In Pennsylvania, today is also the last day for counties to file returns with Secretary of the Commonwealth Kathy Boockvar, an appointee of Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, who is responsible for final certification. Meanwhile, a federal judge nuked a case from Trump that tried to delay certification, POLITICO's Josh Gerstein, Kyle Cheney and I wrote. "This Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence," U.S. District Judge Matthew Brann wrote. "In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more." The Trump campaign made a very limited appeal to the Third Circuit on Sunday.

— The Trump legal team gave one of its attorneys the heave-ho: Sidney Powell. Powell was given the boot on Sunday, POLITICO's Kyle Cheney reported, with a statement from the rest of the team. "Sidney Powell is practicing law on her own," Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani and campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis said in the statement. "She is not a member of the Trump Legal Team. She is also not a lawyer for the President in his personal capacity." Powell has spread some of the wilder conspiracy theories from the campaign.

 

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Presidential Big Board

GOING DOWN WITH THE SHIP — On his way out of the White House, Trump is wreaking havoc on the GOP. He has targeted Republican election officials who won't entertain his conspiracy theories of systemic fraud, I wrote . And no official has caught more flak that Raffensperger. But Raffensperger said he will run for another term in 2022, though other Republicans "probably have notions" of primarying him now, he said in an interview with me last week. "And right now, emotions are pretty high. That'll be what it is. I'm going to do my job. And my accounting is to the Georgians that put me in office here, and really all Georgians."

And officials who have caught his ire have also faced serious threats. The threats "started out fairly general in nature," said Al Schmidt, a Republican elections commissioner in Philadelphia. "But then regrettably, after the president tweeted my name, there were more of them, and they were far more specific in nature. So, referencing my children, and what they're going to do to them."

— Trump's attack on officials, including Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, "has led to broader concerns within the party that he will use his post-presidency to exact revenge on perceived enemies and insert himself into races in ways that are not helpful," POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. Some names being folated as potential primary challengers to DeWine: Trump aide Max Miller and former Rep. Jim Renacci, who lost a Senate race in 2018.

FUTURE OF THE PARTY — Trump has endorsed Ronna McDaniel for another term as chair of the RNC, but that hasn't quelled the behind-the-scenes jockeying for the post, which will be up for a vote early next year. The New York Times' Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman : "Her intention to run with Mr. Trump's blessing has incited a behind-the-scenes proxy battle, dividing Republicans between those who believe the national party should not be a political subsidiary of the outgoing president and others happy for Mr. Trump to remain in control of it."

No one has publicly stepped forward to challenge McDaniel, but check out this trial balloon: "Some influential Republicans are trying to stir support for Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado, who has just lost his re-election bid and is well-liked among pro-Trump and Trump-skeptical Republicans alike in Washington." (Gardner did not respond to The Times.)

THE CASH DASH — Sixteen Thirty Fund, one of the most prominent liberal dark-money groups, raised $137 million in 2019, according to its 990 form obtained by POLITICO's Scott Bland.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — Trump improved his margins in three-quarters of the country's majority-Hispanic counties. How'd he do it? POLITICO's Marc Caputo dives in: "In interviews with more than a dozen experts on Hispanic voters in six states, no factor was as salient as Trump's blue-collar appeal for Latinos. 'Most Latinos identify first as working-class Americans, and Trump spoke to that,' said Josh Zaragoza, a top Democratic data specialist in Arizona, adding that Hispanic men in particular 'are very entrepreneurial. Their economic language is more aligned with the way Republicans speak: pulling yourself up by your bootstraps, owning your own business.' And then there's the way the left spoke — or were framed by Trump's campaign for speaking."

WHAT'S NEXT? — Trump has not yet given up on his efforts to overturn this election. But he has already privately started discussing a run in 2024, The Washington Post's Philip Rucker, Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey reported. "Trump has told confidants he could announce a 2024 campaign before the end of this year, which would immediately set up a potential rematch with President-elect Joe Biden," The Post wrote. "Trump also has been exploring ways to make money for relatively little work, such as giving paid speeches to corporate groups or selling tickets to rallies. In addition, he may try to write a score-settling memoir of his time as president and appear on television, in a paid or unpaid capacity."

 

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Down the Ballot

ON MY MIND — American Crossroads and Senate Leadership Fund, two interconnected Republican super PACs focused on the Senate, laid out some big money on TV. POLITICO Campaigns' James Arkin reports that they made a new $70 million reservation: $35 million from American Crossroads to defend Loeffler in the special election, and $35 million from SLF in the Perdue race.

— Loeffler is self-quarantining after a series of coronavirus tests. A test she received on Friday came back positive, but then a subsequent test was found negative, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein reported. She is awaiting results of subsequent tests.

The state board of elections is also considering a series of emergency rules for the January runoff, including authorizing drop boxes, mandating early processing of ballots and determining the residency of new voters, The AJC's David Wickert reported.

THE SENATE MAP — Republicans are already hustling to defend their seats in 2022. "Ahead of another brutal fight for Senate control and a 2022 map tilted against the GOP, Republicans are racing to persuade their incumbents to run again. Leadership is already getting some positive results, with a number of GOP senators signaling they will run for reelection in battleground states," POLITICO's Burgess Everett and John Bresnahan wrote. One interesting nugget: Incoming NRSC chair Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is hoping to get New Hampshire GOP Gov. Chris Sununu to run against Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan.

— The jockeying for the seat retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) is underway. The Washington Post's Paul Kane names two candidates considering a run: freshman Democratic Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, and former GOP Rep. Ryan Costello.

THE VELVET HAMMER — A seismic shift may be underway in Illinois, where Democrats are turning on state House Speaker Mike Madigan, a longtime Democratic powerbroker. POLITICO's Shia Kapos : "Democrats began to publicly turn on Madigan over the summer, after the inquiry into influence peddling by a local electric utility company came to light. But the revolt against Madigan accelerated this week, and by Thursday enough legislators had fled Madigan to deny him his title in January, potentially stripping him of the post he's largely held since 1983."

CODA — 'SIGN OF THE TIMES' HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Staff of U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn says she misspoke by calling Biden 'president-elect'" — from the Nashville Tennessean.

 

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