Wednesday, November 4, 2020

POLITICO Playbook: What blue wave?

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POLITICO Playbook

By Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer

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DRIVING THE DAY

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP and JOE BIDEN are locked in the tightest presidential contest in decades, with TRUMP threatening to drag the race to the Supreme Court. BIDEN is ahead by a sliver in Wisconsin, TRUMP is up in Michigan and Pennsylvania -- but it's close, with plenty outstanding. Nevada is suddenly tight. Georgia is too close to call. We'll get to this all in a minute. But let's start with what we know:

TUESDAY WAS AN ABJECT DISASTER for Democrats in Washington. To imagine the amount of soul searching and explaining the party will have to do after Tuesday is absolutely dizzying. The infighting will be bloody -- as it should be. We fielded text after text from Hill Democrats Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning with existential questions about their leadership and the direction of their party.

DEMOCRATS TOLD US in the weeks and months leading up to Election Day that they were on track to win the majority in the Senate, and they don't appear poised to do that. Donors gave $90 million to lose to Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL, $108 million to lose to Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) and $24 million to lose to Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas). GOP Sen. STEVE DAINES won in Montana. GOP Sen. THOM TILLIS is up in North Carolina. GOP Sen. DAVID PERDUE is above 50% in Georgia, at the moment. Sen. SUSAN COLLINS is narrowly ahead in Maine -- despite Democrat SARA GIDEON raising $69 million. Iowa Sen. JONI ERNST won her bid for a second term. Andrew Desiderio and James Arkin on the state of play in the Senate

DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS TOLD US that Dems would win a dozen seats in the House, and knock off a whole host of Republican incumbents, and that was completely wrong. Instead, Republicans -- powered by the NRCC and CLF -- beat a bunch of Democratic incumbents. The GOP added women to their ranks. They beat Minnesota Rep. COLLIN PETERSON after a few decades of trying. Republicans beat two Democratic incumbents in the Miami area -- DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL and DONNA SHALALA. NANCY MACE beat Rep. JOE CUNNINGHAM in South Carolina. Democratic Rep. MAX ROSE appears to be done in Staten Island. Democratic Reps. XOCHITL TORRES SMALL of New Mexico and KENDRA HORN of Oklahoma both have lost.

INSTEAD OF SITTING SOMEWHERE in the 180s, Republicans have north of 200 House seats, making themselves an extremely powerful minority no matter who wins the White House.

AND, TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY, the chair of the DCCC, Rep. CHERI BUSTOS, is struggling to hang on in her Illinois district. Speaker NANCY PELOSI and her leadership team will have a lot to think about -- and explain -- in the next few weeks. Republicans could have a net gain of 10 House seats. Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris on where things stand in the House

HOUSE MINORITY LEADER KEVIN MCCARTHY told JOHN BRESNAHAN early this Wednesday morning: "We defied the odds. It's the night of the Republican women. … The Democrats never solved one problem in their majority. They promised they would govern differently, and they didn't."

THE POLLING INDUSTRY is a wreck, and should be blown up.

NOW ONTO THE BIG SHOW: TRUMP threatened to drag the Supreme Court into the presidential race with a number of states still counting. It feels like Bush v. Gore all over again. "We were going to win this election," TRUMP told supporters in the East Room of the White House around 2:30 a.m. "Frankly we did win. So we'll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. As far as I'm concerned, we already did win."

NO, HE HAS NOT WON.

THE REALITY is TRUMP and BIDEN remain locked in a slow-motion brawl with both sides still awaiting final results from several states. The race is not over.

IN PENNSYLVANIA, as many as 2 million mail-in ballots still have to be counted. Michigan also has outstanding ballots, and there's no deadline for them to finish.

VP MIKE PENCE took a decidedly softer tone on the process, saying: "While the votes continue to be counted, we're going to remain vigilant, as the president said. The right to vote has been at the center of our democracy since the founding of this nation, and we're going to protect the integrity of the vote."

AT 12:45 A.M., BIDEN said he would win the race when it's all said and done, not TRUMP. "We knew this was going to go on, but who knew we were going to go into maybe tomorrow morning, maybe even longer?" Biden said at a Wilmington, Del., car rally. "But look, we feel good about where we are. We really do. I'm here to tell you tonight we believe we're on track to win this election."

HERE'S A SHORT LIST of what Democrats are going to wonder: Was BIDEN too cautious? Is the party too far to the left? Is it too closely hewed to the center? Is the leadership in Congress too stale? BUT CHIEFLY, what they will be asking themselves is how and why this race was so close against a president who they so badly misjudged.

WHAT'S CLEAR: If BIDEN wins the White House, he will likely face a Republican Senate and an emboldened House minority. If TRUMP wins, he will be backed up by MCCONNELL and MCCARTHY, and the GOP will have a huge say in governing.

IMAGINE IF BIDEN DOES WIN -- and that's a big, big if: Think about how he'll get a Cabinet approved. Think about Democratic wishes-- raising corporate taxes, capital gains, packing the Supreme Court, blowing up the filibuster -- and those seem absolutely impossible. Gridlock is likely.

FRONT PAGES: NYT: "TURNOUT SOARS, ALONG WITH SUSPENSE, AS NATION IN TUMULT DELIVERS VERDICT" … N.Y. POST: "NAILBITER" WAPO: "A nation divided"

NYT'S ALEX BURNS and JONATHAN MARTIN: "As of early Wednesday morning, the race remained shrouded in uncertainty, as Mr. Biden failed to achieve any early breakthroughs, and as Mr. Trump clung to a lead in a number of Southern states that Democrats had hoped to flip into their column.

"Mr. Trump dashed Democrats' hopes of picking up both Florida and Ohio, two swing states that have tilted to the right in recent years, and that Mr. Trump carried four years ago. He also turned back a challenge from Mr. Biden in Iowa, a smaller state where Mr. Biden made a late effort to pick up its six Electoral College votes.

"Mr. Trump did not have a clear upper hand, but the prolonged suspense was, at least at the start, something of a victory for the president, who was at risk of being eliminated from contention if one of the big, historically Republican states of the Southeast had defected to Mr. Biden. That was still a possibility in North Carolina or Georgia, where the vote tally was closely divided."

WSJ'S JOHN MCCORMICK and CHAD DAY: "The portrait of America revealed in Tuesday's presidential election was one of a deeply divided nation split between men and women, white and nonwhite voters, urban and rural residents, college graduates and those who didn't graduate from college, and differing views on the importance of controlling the coronavirus pandemic versus preventing further damage to the economy.

"A national voter survey conducted for The Wall Street Journal and other news organizations showed President Trump with his strongest support among men, white voters without a college degree, rural residents and those who said the government should put a higher priority on the economy even if it increases the spread of the coronavirus.Democrat Joe Biden was more heavily favored by women, urban and suburban residents, nonwhite voters and college graduates."

BIG PICTURE -- JOHN HARRIS column: "Once Again, a Nation Cuts It Too Close for Comfort": "Before Election Day, Democrats had an answer for how they intended to deal with President Donald Trump's hold on his most-devoted partisans, or the possibility of widespread challenges to absentee ballots, or the fear that conservative judges might come to the aid of Republicans with supportive court rulings.

"The answer was that they were going to soar over all these obstacles by mobilizing their own partisans to devastating effect. In 2020, unlike 2016, they weren't going to cut it close. Well, so much for that plan.

"The country is, once again, cutting it close in a presidential election. As in: Very, very close. Too close to declare a winner on Tuesday evening, and possibly for much longer. Too close to give comfort to either Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden. Too close to avoid Trump's charge on Twitter after midnight that 'they are trying to steal the election.' Too close that American politics has turned a partisan or ideological or demographic corner in any decisive way." POLITICO

THE SENATE …

-- DES MOINES REGISTER: "Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield"

-- DENVER POST: "John Hickenlooper defeats Cory Gardner in U.S. Senate race"

-- ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION: "Presidential, U.S. Senate race nailbiters in Georgia": "Georgia Republicans began to rally around U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler after she edged out Congressman Doug Collins for a spot in a Jan. 5 runoff against Democrat Raphael Warnock. Collins conceded the race and pledged full support to his once-bitter rival.

"Georgia's other marquee races also hung in the balance as dozens of Democratic-leaning precincts surrounding Atlanta had yet to report. That included U.S. Sen. David Perdue's reelection battle against Democrat Jon Ossoff, as well as a U.S. House contest that was seen as bellwether for Vice President Joe Biden's strength in the suburbs."

-- BANGOR DAILY NEWS: "Susan Collins poised to win 5th term after opening wide lead on Sara Gideon"

MEANWHILE … THE CORONAVIRUS IS RAGING -- 9.3 MILLION Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus. … 232,627 Americans have died.

-- "With Winter Coming and Trump Still in Charge, Virus Experts Fear the Worst," by NYT's Michael Shear and Sheryl Gay Stolberg: " Regardless of the election's outcome this week, President Trump will be the one steering the country through what is likely to be the darkest and potentially deadliest period of the coronavirus pandemic, and he has largely excluded the nation's leading health experts from his inner circle.

"Mr. Trump will still have control of the nation's health apparatus and the bully pulpit that comes with the Oval Office until Jan. 20, as infections approach 100,000 a day and death rates begin to rise as hospitals are strained to their breaking points.

"But the president has largely shuttered the White House Coronavirus Task Force and doubled down on anti-science language, telling voters that the country is 'rounding the corner' in the fight against the virus that has claimed nearly a quarter of a million lives."

-- "Virus hospitalizations surge as pandemic shadows U.S. election," by AP's Alexandra Olson

THE PRESIDENT has nothing on his public schedule.

 

NEW EPISODES OF POLITICO'S GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST: The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded in 2020. Are world leaders and political actors up to the task of solving them? Is the private sector? Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe for Season Two, available now.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

A woman putting up a

PHOTO DU JOUR: A "VOTE" sign points the way to the polls in Huntington Beach, Calif., on Tuesday. | Apu Gomes/Getty Images

BEYOND THE BELTWAY -- "How Miami Cubans disrupted Biden's path to a Florida win," by Sabrina Rodríguez in Miami: "President Donald Trump's obsession with Cubans has paid off. After four years of non-stop outreach to Miami's Cuban exile community, Trump cruised to victory in Florida thanks to their heavy turnout that also helped the GOP flip two congressional seats and win big in state House and Senate races.

"Cuban Americans have long been Republican leaning but began drifting toward the Democratic fold during Barack Obama's successful presidential campaigns and Hillary Clinton's run in 2016, when she blew Trump away in Miami-Dade. Republicans responded by focusing more on the community and stepping up their anti-socialist messaging, often depicting Democrats as radical leftists and socialists, labels that former Vice President Joe Biden and his campaign struggled to shake off.

"Republicans attribute the good night to four years of staying on message in Miami-Dade, with the president and administration officials repeatedly coming to Miami to roll out crackdowns on Cuba and Venezuela. And now some question whether Miami-Dade should be considered a liberal bastion at all." POLITICO

TRADE WARS -- "Market ties between China, U.S. set to deepen regardless of who wins White House," by Reuters' Samuel Shen and Andrew Galbraith in Shanghai: "As the world awaited definitive results from the U.S. presidential election, Chinese investors betting on the re-election of Donald Trump sent shares of a Shenzhen-listed air traffic control software firm soaring on Wednesday.

"Wisesoft Co Ltd, whose Chinese name sounds like 'Trump's big win', saw its shares jump as much as 9.8% after early returns showed few signs of a conclusive Democratic victory in U.S. polls, making the stock a rare clear winner on the day. Analysts and investors widely expect a win by Trump, who launched a trade war with China that will soon enter its 28th month, to weigh on Chinese shares in the short term."

-- "China shapes a new U.S. economic era: The return of industrial policy," by Luiza Ch. Savage

VALLEY TALK -- "California Voters Exempt Uber, Lyft, DoorDash From Reclassifying Drivers," by WSJ's Preetika Rana: "Uber Technologies Inc., Lyft Inc. and DoorDash Inc. won a pivotal vote in California that exempts them from reclassifying their drivers as employees, according to the Associated Press.

"The companies, along with Postmates Inc. and Instacart Inc., collectively contributed around $200 million to support Proposition 22, a measure that allows them to bypass a state law intended to provide employee-like protections for their drivers. The campaign was the most expensive for any ballot measure in state history. With more than 60% of ballots counted, the vote was running 58% in favor of the measure and 42% against, prompting the Associated Press to project it would pass.

"The outcome allows the ride-hailing and delivery companies to avoid complying with a law that could have reshaped their business models and battered their business in the most populous U.S. state. It also sets the tone for gig-worker regulation in the rest of the country."

MEDIAWATCH -- "Fox News Made a Big Call in Arizona, Buoying Biden and Angering Trump," by NYT's Michael Grynbaum and John Koblin

 

EXCLUSIVE: "THE CIRCUS" & POLITICO TEAM UP TO PULL BACK THE CURTAIN ON THE MOST UNPRECEDENTED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN HISTORY: It's been the most unconventional and contentious election season of our lifetime. The approach taken by each candidate couldn't be more different, yet the stakes couldn't be higher as we cross the finish line. Join POLITICO's John Harris, Laura Barrón-López, Gabby Orr and Eugene Daniels in a conversation with John Heilemann, Alex Wagner, Mark McKinnon and Jennifer Palmieri of Showtime's "The Circus" on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 8 p.m. EST for an insiders' look at the Trump and Biden campaigns, behind-the-scenes details and nuggets from the trail, and the latest on where things stand and where they are heading. DON'T MISS THIS! REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Liz Rolnik Miller, VP of comms at CBS Studios, and Zak Miller, senior director of programs and partnerships at Landmark Ventures, welcomed Eden Leon Miller on Oct. 6. Pic

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Rima Sirota, professor of law and legal practice at the Georgetown University Law Center. How she got started in her career: "I was having a lousy day at my Department of Justice job, and so, on a whim, I sent my résumé to every law school in the area, asking if they needed an adjunct to teach legal ethics. Georgetown Law was the only school that responded. I discovered that I loved teaching, joined Georgetown's full-time faculty, and haven't looked back." Playbook Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Laura Bush is 74 … Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) is 49 … Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) is 73 … Rep. Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) is 7-0 … Avi Berkowitz … NYT's Ben Smith and Kit Seelye … Craig Stevens … Alice Tong … POLITICO's Gabby Orr, Amanda Eisenberg and Liz Davidson … WaPo's Mike DeBonis … Eric Wagner … AP's Alex Sanz … Michael Clauser … Jessica Reis, senior director at Bully Pulpit Interactive, is 37 … API's Casey Martel (h/t Ben Decatur) … Julie Siegel … Catherine Rampell … Ken Weinstein, nominee for U.S. ambassador to Japan, is 59 … WTOP's Hillary Howard … Ashley Estes Kavanaugh … Blair Latoff Holmes … Rick Ungar is 7-0 … Morgan Mohr, Nevada deputy state director for Joe Biden's campaign … Darla Bunting Liggins …

… Carlos Gutierrez, executive chair of EmPath … Jeremy Bernard (h/t Tammy Haddad) … Michael Fontneau is 36 … Kathy Griffin (h/t Hilary Rosen) ... Emma Kenyon … Will Shaw … Laylee Ghiasi … McKinsey's Max Gleischman (h/t wife Rachel Racusen) … Maggie McNerney, senior director at Dezenhall Resources, is 26 … Amanda Thayer … Jean Roseme … Katie Hughes ... Tim Saler ... Ezra Mechaber ... Florencia Iriondo ... Lucy Tutwiler Hodas … Kevin McVicker ... Trish Turner … Michael Hough is 41 ... Aaron White … WSJ's Elena Chiriboga … Kari Kant … Jeremy Chwat is 46 … Jared Kleinstein … Edward Luttwak … Massachusetts state Rep. Ken Gordon … Hal Malchow … Julie Tippens (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) … Casey Sinnwell … Lynde Uihlein ... Susan Knapp ... Jacques Haeringer

 

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