Playbook PM: The coming reckoning

POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington

Nov 04, 2020 View in browser   By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun WHERE WE STAND … NYT'S MARK LANDLER and MICHAEL COOPER: "Mr. Biden's prospects have brightened a bit, amid signs that he held narrow leads in several states that could propel him to the critical threshold of 270 electoral votes. Mr. Trump's path to winning a second term appeared narrower … "With millions of votes yet to be counted across seven key states — there is a reason that news organizations and other usually impatient actors were waiting to declare victors — Mr. Biden was clinging to narrow leads in Arizona, Nevada and Michigan, as well as in Wisconsin." WHAT WILMINGTON IS SAYING: THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN was pressing television networks all morning to call Wisconsin. This afternoon, CNN, the AP and NBC called the Badger State for BIDEN. The campaign says their lead in Nevada is going to widen, and Michigan should come in for them today with Wayne County votes expanding their lead. PENNSYLVANIA IS ONE BIG QUESTION, as there are nearly 1.5 million ballots outstanding from Dem areas like Southeastern Pennsylvania, the Lehigh Valley and Allegheny, which they believe will help erase their 600,000-vote deficit. Sen. BOB CASEY (D-Pa.) is suggesting BIDEN will win Pennsylvania in this series of videos. Georgia also remains a question mark. BUT: Biden doesn't need Pennsylvania or Georgia if he holds on to his leads in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. TRUMP WORLD is suggesting that if the legal ballots were counted, they'd win. Campaign manager BILL STEPIEN in a statement said TRUMP will "immediately" request a recount in Wisconsin. The full statement … THEY ALSO ANNOUNCED they are suing to stop counting in Michigan. … AND RUDY GIULIANI tweeted: "En route to Philadelphia with legal team." THE AFTERMATH … TWO THINGS ARE ABOUT TO HAPPEN IN WASHINGTON: 1) DEMOCRATS are beginning to grapple with what happened Tuesday night. The spin is pretty weak gruel, but here it is, for your situational awareness: The polling was bad, and Dems lost a few more incumbents than they thought they would've a year ago. Of course, a year ago, 250,000 people hadn't died from Covid-19. But that's all Hill Democrats have at the moment. THIS ANSWER is going to need to improve. The DCCC is a campaign organization that's funded by membership dues, to a large degree. They'll want to hear why the polling was so off, and why they were being told to expect a result that never came to pass. -- HEATHER CAYGLE, SARAH FERRIS and ALLY MUTNICK: "'Dumpster fire': House Democrats trade blame after Tuesday's damage" HERE IS A LIST OF DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENTS who lost: MAX ROSE (N.Y.), DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL (Fla.), DONNA SHALALA (Fla.), KENDRA HORN (Okla.), COLLIN PETERSON (Minn.), XOCHITL TORRES SMALL (N.M.), JOE CUNNINGHAM (S.C.), ABBY FINKENAUER (Iowa). DEM INCUMBENTS who are trailing: T.J. COX (Calif.), ANTHONY BRINDISI (N.Y.), ABIGAIL SPANBURGER (Va.). RECKONINGS LIKE THIS are messy. The left will say that the party was far too centrist. The centrists will say that the party was seen as too far left. Everybody will blame the polling. WILL THERE BE ANY CHANGE in the Democratic leadership either in the House or Senate? You know the saying: You can't beat someone with no one. ON THE HOUSE GOP SIDE -- MEL ZANONA and JOHN BRESNAHAN: "GOP leaders locking up support to stay atop caucus" BTW: SENATE DEM WATCHERS are whispering that this is the third straight cycle Democrats have underperformed. … AND IN MAINE -- @JamesArkin: "Susan Collins says Sara Gideon called her to concede the race. Maine Senate over, Collins reelected." HERE'S SOME INTERESTING DATA: CNN's exit polling shows that 10% of voters said health care was their top priority. (Of course, take initial exit polls with several grains of salt, especially this year.) Democrats' electoral message has been centered around health care for several election cycles. Some Democrats are now questioning that. 2) NOW, HOW DO THEY GOVERN? We hit at this in Playbook this morning, but almost any governing configuration currently imaginable will be a slog for BIDEN or TRUMP. Democrats could have a nearly ungovernable House of Representatives, where the majority will be licking their wounds from a tragic underperformance, and Republicans will be nipping at their heels, trying to split them at every turn. The margin in the House is likely to be something around eight to 10 seats, leaving the Democratic majority little room for error. THE SENATE, at this point, looks to be trending toward the GOP, with something like a 52-48 breakdown in the cards. IN SHORT, the leftward drifting House Dem Caucus is going to collide with an emboldened Senate Republican Conference which kept the majority against all odds. The filibuster will remain intact. The Supreme Court will remain at nine seats. No tax increases on the horizon. Green New Deal is dead for the time being. All of those ambitious Democratic agenda items will be tamped down. IS CORY GARDNER the only Republican who was punished for an allegiance to TRUMP? Good Wednesday afternoon.   EXCLUSIVE: "THE CIRCUS" & POLITICO TEAM UP TO PULL BACK THE CURTAIN ON THE MOST UNPRECEDENTED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN HISTORY: It's been the most unconventional and contentious election season of our lifetime. The approach taken by each candidate couldn't be more different, yet the stakes couldn't be higher as we cross the finish line. Join POLITICO's John Harris, Laura Barrón-López, Gabby Orr and Eugene Daniels in a conversation with John Heilemann, Alex Wagner, Mark McKinnon and Jennifer Palmieri of Showtime's "The Circus" on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 8 p.m. EST for an insiders' look at the Trump and Biden campaigns, behind-the-scenes details and nuggets from the trail, and the latest on where things stand and where they are heading. DON'T MISS THIS! REGISTER HERE.     MORE WAY-TOO-EARLY POST-MORTEM THOUGHTS … -- IF BIDEN WINS: Democrats will still have seriously underperformed their polls and hopes, and they'll need to take a hard look at why. BIDEN will bear much of the blame. But establishment Democrats who lacked his personal baggage still lost in swing-state Senate races. And progressives not named KATIE PORTER showed again that they can't really win federal races in swing districts. In other words: Every faction of the party will have something to reinforce their own narrative. MEANWHILE, REPUBLICANS will have won the popular vote -- i.e., convinced the American public -- precisely once since the 1980s. But the Electoral College will still be close enough for them to avoid any introspection. Having almost fully remade themselves in TRUMP'S image over the past four years, the party will have ended up with the first one-term president in decades. -- IF TRUMP WINS: Basically everything above except the last sentence will still apply to both parties. VOTERS ARE COMPLICATED … FLORIDA decided to raise the minimum wage to $15 even as it boosted Trump. … CALIFORNIA voted against reinstating affirmative action despite the obvious big Biden victory. WHAT EVERYONE AGREES ON: Ballot measures legalizing or decriminalizing various drugs won all over the country. WATCH THIS SPACE … Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL told reporters in Louisville that he wants another Covid relief/stimulus package THIS YEAR. "The Senate goes back in session next Monday. Hopefully the partisan passions that prevented us from doing another rescue package will subside with the election, and I think we need to do it and I think we need to do it before the end of the year." -- SO LET'S PLAY THIS OUT A BIT: If MCCONNELL wants a bill before the end of the year, that means TRUMP will have to sign it. Do you think he will? The White House sent signals before the election that they didn't think he'd be interested. KYLE CHENEY: "'Someone may have to pay a price': Judge lashes Postal Service for defying ballot order": "Judge Emmet Sulliivan … expressed frustration [at] the Postal Service's decision to ignore his order — meant to ensure that undelivered ballots reached state officials on Election Day — and not to inform him about it until after the fact. … "Sullivan, who is overseeing a civil rights suit related to the Postal Service, demanded testimony from senior officials at the Postal Service later Wednesday afternoon, and DOJ offered Kevin Bray, the Postal Service's lead official responsible for mail processing. Sullivan, though, indicated he thought DeJoy may ultimately be required to deliver testimony. 'The postmaster's going to have to be deposed or appear before me,' Sullivan said, adding, 'I'm not going to forget it.'" THE LATEST IN PA -- "GOP effort to block 'cured' Pennsylvania ballots gets chilly reception from judge," by Katherine Landergan and Josh Gerstein in Philadelphia: "A federal judge gave a skeptical reception Wednesday to a Republican lawsuit seeking to throw out votes in a Pennsylvania county that contacted some voters to give them an opportunity to fix — or 'cure' — problems with their absentee ballots. "During a morning hearing in Philadelphia, U.S. District Court Judge Timothy Savage said he was dubious of arguments from a lawyer for GOP congressional candidate Kathy Barnette, who argued that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court had concluded that the law prohibits counties from allowing voters who erred in completing or packaging their mail-in ballots to correct those mistakes." POLITICO   KEEP UP WITH THE PEOPLE AND POLITICS DRIVING GLOBAL HEALTH IN GLOBAL PULSE: This year has revealed just how pivotal it is to keep up with the politics and policy driving global health. Our Global Pulse newsletter connects leaders, policymakers, and advocates to the people and politics making an impact on our global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today.     VALLEY TALK -- "Silicon Valley braces for election misinformation after Trump's false victory claim," by Steven Overly: "The country's largest social networks are bracing for confusion among their millions of users and a potential torrent of misinformation in the days to come after President Donald Trump falsely claimed victory over former Vice President Joe Biden despite the many votes yet to be counted. … "They'll be on alert for foreign or domestic misinformation that exploits the moment of uncertainty, as well as hostile rhetoric from far-right groups that were agitated even before the election." POLITICO -- WAPO: "Confusion and conflict stir online after Trump's premature claim of victory," by Craig Timberg, Tony Romm, Isaac Stanley-Becker and Drew Harwell: "It was unclear whether the furious talk would prove to be anything more than anonymous chatter on the Web. Far-right influencers lined up behind Trump, praising him for going 'on offense' and lashing out at social networking services for applying labels to his posts noting that the count was still ongoing. "There were notable exceptions, however. Ben Shapiro, a conservative pundit with a vast online following, wrote in a tweet shortly after the president's remarks from the White House, 'No, Trump has not already won the election, and it is deeply irresponsible for him to say he has.'" WaPo -- THE PRESIDENT and others in his orbit are continuing to try to push false claims of voter fraud, while some Republicans are resisting that wrong narrative. WHAT BLOOMBERG'S MONEY BOUGHT … CNBC: "Mike Bloomberg takes big losses after spending over $100 million in Florida, Ohio and Texas," by Brian Schwartz: "Democratic leaders were privately becoming more convinced that they were going to defeat Trump [in Florida], in part on the basis that Bloomberg was flooding the airwaves with ads, according to people familiar with the matter who declined to be named. They believed that Bloomberg's messaging machine was enough to push Biden over the edge and flip Florida back to the Democrats after losing there in 2016. "There were even discussions that some Democratic leaders were going to try to convince Biden to offer Bloomberg a Cabinet post, these people added. Those efforts appear to be no longer in motion and it's unclear if either Biden or Bloomberg would even entertain the idea." TRADE WARS -- "U.S. trade deficit falls to $63.9 billion in September," by AP's Matt Ott in Silver Spring, Md.: "The U.S. trade deficit fell in September after hitting a 14-year high the previous month as exports outpaced imports. The gap between what the U.S. sells and what it buys abroad fell to $63.9 billion in September, a decline of 4.7%, from a $67 billion deficit in August, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. September exports rose 2.6% to $176.4 billion, while imports ticked up 0.5% to $240.2 billion. "Year to date, the goods and services deficit has jumped $38.5 billion, or 8.6%, to $485.6 billion. The total deficit for goods and services for the same period in 2019 was $447.1 billion. Total exports are down 17.4% this year from 2019, while imports have declined by 12.4% as the coronavirus pandemic has sabotaged global commerce this year and disrupted global supply chains everywhere." AP RYAN LIZZA ANALYSIS: "Biden looks screwed even if he wins" : "There are few hints in the 2020 results of a realignment akin to what Ronald Reagan achieved when he made Jimmy Carter a one-term president in 1980 and ushered in the era of modern conservatism. There is no sense that Biden has reformed and re-invented the Democratic Party to be more competitive the way Bill Clinton did in 1992, when he defeated George H.W. Bush. There aren't yet hints that Biden has assembled a new coalition the way that Obama did in 2008. … "Democrats may fail to realize widespread predictions of re-taking the [Senate]. … The Democrats' anti-filibuster movement and its interest in expanding the Supreme Court and the Senate, or any other process reforms to maximize a new Democratic president's power and influence, would be placed on pause. A President Biden's agenda would be defined by his ability to win over the entire Senate Democratic caucus, from Bernie Sanders to Joe Manchin, and then as many as 10 Republicans. Ultimately, Biden would have to deal with McConnell." OH YEAH, THIS IS HAPPENING TODAY TOO … "As of Now, the U.S. Is Officially Out of the Paris Climate Agreement," by the NYT's Lisa Friedman: "On Nov. 4, 2019, the earliest possible day under United Nations rules that a country could begin the final withdrawal process, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo filed paperwork to do so. It automatically finalized a year later. … Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has pledged that he would recommit the United States to the Paris Agreement on Day 1." NYT   Follow us on Twitter Anna Palmer @apalmerdc Jake Sherman @JakeSherman Eli Okun @eliokun Garrett Ross @garrett_ross   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters Follow us

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