| | | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Monday. 2020 BY THE NUMBERS — So far, 4,587,454 vote-by-mail ballots have been cast for the November election, according to the latest information on the state Division of Elections website. Of those, 2,086,121 have come from Democrats and 1,432,512 have come from registered Republicans. Overall, there are more than 1.4 million mail ballots requested but not yet returned. Of those, 598,459 are held by Democrats and 440,648 are with Republicans. A total of 4,115,132 voters have cast ballots at an early voting site. Of those 1,884,408 were Republicans and 1,325,124 were Democrats. 2-minute warning — And now, the finale. Start the clock — Some 36 hours from now, polls in Florida will close and sometime after that (no predictions on when) the nation will know how one of the nation's battleground states voted. Where it stands for now — Early voting wrapped up this weekend (save for Bay County) and it appears that Democrats did enough between in-person voting and vote-by-mail the last two days to stop Republicans from cutting any further in their raw vote total. The official numbers will be posted later this morning, but an informal estimate concludes that as of Sunday, Democrats will have a roughly 100,000-advantage over Republicans in the overall number of ballots cast (but not yet tabulated.) No answers — Does that mean we know what will happen? Nope. The polls show a tight-as-ever race. And as one Democratic operative told Playbook Sunday night: "Gonna be tight. White knuckles." Democrats hope to squeeze out more votes by encouraging those who still have mail-in ballots to take them to drop boxes maintained by local elections supervisors. Meanwhile, Republicans are expecting that their voters will show up in greater numbers than Democrats on Election Day. But by how much a big unknown. Most ballots are already in — The new totals this morning are expected to show that roughly 8.8 million Floridians have already voted. That is a remarkable number given that 9.58 million, total, voted four years ago. If the turnout percentage matches last time, then about 10.75 million votes will come in when all is said and done. But there are signs that the turnout could be even higher. — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis, The daily rundown — Between Saturday and Sunday, the number of Florida coronavirus cases increased by 4,865 (0.6 percent), to 807,412; active hospitalizations went up 84 (3.7 percent), to 2,357; deaths rose by 28 (nearly 0.2 percent), to 16,789. ELECTIONLAND: POLITICO is partnering with Electionland , a ProPublica project that works with newsrooms to track voting issues around the country. The Electionland project covers problems that prevent eligible voters from casting their ballots during the 2020 elections. We're part of a coalition of newsrooms around the country that are investigating issues related to voter registration, pandemic-related changes to voting, the shift to vote-by-mail, cybersecurity, voter education, misinformation, and more. Tell us here if you're having trouble voting. | | | | NEW EPISODES OF POLITICO'S GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST: The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded in 2020. Are world leaders and political actors up to the task of solving them? Is the private sector? Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe for Season Two, available now. | | | | |
|  | TRAIL MIX | | STRATEGIC WAGER — "The 2 big bets that will decide Florida," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo: The presidential contest in the nation's tightest swing state, and perhaps the entire race for the White House, ultimately comes down to two big bets. Florida Democrats are placing the more complicated wager: that they can turn out enough low-propensity, new and blue-leaning independent voters — along with more senior citizens than usual — to win the day. The Republican gamble is more straightforward. It hinges on turning out their more numerous high-propensity voters on Election Day — a time-honored practice for the Florida GOP. For the past three general elections here, Republicans have prevailed with that strategy. "We have better, more reliable voters," said Blaise Ingoglia, former chairman of Republican Party of Florida. "I think that Covid, and the media hounding on that issue, could keep Democrats from heading to the polls and now it's too late to cast their votes by mail." LATE NIGHT FUN WITH 45 — "Despite COVID concerns, Trump rallies thousands of fervent fans past Miami-Dade's curfew," by Miami Herald's David Smiley, Bianca Padro Ocasio, David Ovalle and Douglas Hanks: "Less than 24 hours before the dawn of Election Day, President Donald Trump touched down Sunday night in Miami-Dade County — the coronavirus epicenter of his must-win home state — and blew the lid off COVID-19 precautions. In a hospitality-driven county bottled-up by for months by social distancing measures and mask mandates, where more than 3,600 have died in the pandemic, Trump gathered thousands shoulder-to-shoulder to cheer on his embattled reelection campaign at the Miami-Opa locka Executive airport. He blew past a midnight curfew put in place by a mayor he's endorsed. And he hammered a crucial tenet of his closing message: His belief that American economy is surging despite the pandemic caused by 'the plague from China,' and that a 'safe vaccine' is on its way soon."
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OPA LOCKA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 01: U.S. President Donald Trump makes a campaign stop at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Airport on November 1, 2020 in Opa Locka, Florida. President Trump continues to campaign against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading up to the November 3rd Election Day. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | AFTER ELECTION — "Trump threatens to fire Fauci in rift with disease expert," by Associated Press' Zeke Miller: "Speaking at a campaign rally in Opa-locka, Florida, Trump expressed frustration that the surging cases of the virus that has killed more than 230,000 Americans so far this year remains prominent in the news, sparking chants of 'Fire Fauci' from his supporters. 'Don't tell anybody but let me wait until a little bit after the election,' Trump replied to thousands of supporters just after midnight Monday, adding he appreciated their 'advice.'" — "Study links Trump rallies to more than 700 Covid deaths," by POLITICO's David Lim FINAL SUNDAY — "With Florida vote tightening, a last-minute push aimed at Black voters," by POLITICO's Gary Fineout and Sabrina Rodriguez: "Joe Biden's campaign made one final push to reach out to Florida's Black voters on Sunday as it participated in 'Souls to the Polls' events. The Democratic nominee's wife, Jill Biden, was joined by members of George Floyd's family on the steps one of Tallahassee's most well-known Black churches, Bethel Missionary Baptist Church, where supporters addressed those who protested Floyd's killing by Minneapolis police in May. Ben Crump, a Tallahassee attorney who represents the Floyd family and has become known nationally, gave a fiery speech to the crowd of roughly 200, saying the 'blood' of George Floyd, Emmett Till and Martin Luther King Jr. 'was on the ballot.' (Till was a Black teenager lynched in Mississippi in 1955.)" — "Early voting closes in Palm Beach County with record-shattering numbers," by Palm Beach Post's Jodie Wagner — 'Souls to the Polls' events for Black voters adapt to the pandemic on final day of early voting in Florida," by Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello SPECIAL DELIVERY — "USPS investigates undelivered Miami ballots," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon and Josh Gerstein: "The USPS confirmed Saturday morning six completed ballots and 42 blank ones were found after investigators were sent to the Miami location Friday afternoon. 'The Office of Inspector General special agents confirmed the presence of delayed mail and subsequently located approximately 48 pieces of election mail,' Special Agent in Charge Scott Pierce in a statement. 'The U.S. Postal Service immediately arranged for the delivery of the election mail.' BACKING THE PRESIDENT — "The push to get Haitians to 'Hexit' from Democrats," by POLITICO's Sabrina Rodriguez: In Florida — home of razor-thin election outcomes — Haitian-American leaders are making a final push to get heavily Haitian, mostly Democratic areas to turn out for the former vice president. And as they do that, they're facing a small but growing number of their compatriots mobilizing for the president. Local Democrats worry that more Haitian Americans will vote for Trump in 2020 than in 2016, despite his controversial moves to cut immigration pathways for Haitians and insulting Haiti with an expletive. Meanwhile, Haitian Trump supporters are confident that this time around, they'll see stronger numbers for the president. DECEPTIVE PRACTICES — "Video altered to make it look like Biden greeted wrong state," by Associated Press' Ali Swenson: "It's an awkward moment when a presidential candidate greets the audience at a rally and names the wrong state. Fortunately for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, that didn't happen to him this week, despite a widely shared video that appears to show him saying 'Hello, Minnesota' to a crowd in Florida. It turns out he was, indeed, in Minnesota. The video that was shared had been altered to change the text on a sign and the podium to refer to Tampa, Florida, instead of Minnesota." FLIPPABLE? — "The race for Miami's perennial tossup seat starts leaning Democratic," by New York Times Patricia Mazzei: "But making the leap from local to federal office — and from nonpartisan to partisan — can be difficult, especially when the candidate has to spend an election year dealing with a pandemic. Mr. [Carlos] Gimenez has been unable to match the fund-raising by Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the Democratic incumbent, allowing her to bolster her standing in the race. So a contest that until not long ago was considered a tossup in one of the few districts in the country where a Republican might unseat a Democrat is now seen by political analysts as one that leans slightly Democratic, a reflection of Republicans' national struggles when it comes to trying to pick up House seats." ANOTHER IMPORTANT ITEM ON THE BALLOT — "In service-heavy Florida, minimum wage boost is on ballot," by Associated Press' Mike Schneider: "Joseph Gourgue wishes he could help out his children and grandchildren financially, but his $9 an hour wage as a wheelchair attendant at Orlando International Airport doesn't let him. Gourgue, 61, is hoping a gradual increase in Florida's minimum wage paves the way for him to be able to help his children pay for weddings or buy gifts for his two grandchildren. Florida voters this election cycle are deciding whether to raise the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour over the next six years." — "Palm Bay early voting site, elections office closes because of COVID-19 among election workers," by Florida Today's Dave Berman and Tyler Vazquez — "Rick Scott says he hopes to know who wins Florida on election night," by POLITICO's Allie Bice — "Florida lawmakers briefed on foreign election interference," by Miami Herald's Ana Ceballos and Alex Daugherty — "Why Jacksonville is critical to winning the presidency," by Florida Times-Union Andrew Pantazi — "Florida GOP pulled in three times as much cash as Dems before the general election," by Orlando Sentinel's Annie Martin — "Gun-toting newcomer Anna Paulina Luna hopes to oust Charlie Crist, but it's a long shot," by Florida Politics Kate Bradshaw | | CORONAVIRUS UPDATES | | PUSHING BACK — "Miami Beach mayor accuses governor of chasing herd immunity," by NBC 6's Alyssa Hyman: "COVID-19 cases across the country are soaring yet again, with the U.S. hitting a single day record of more than 98,000 cases, according to an NBC News tally. South Florida is not immune to the spikes, prompting Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber to write another letter to Gov. Ron DeSantis, accusing him chasing herd immunity as the state's strategy to address the coronavirus. 'These are not accusations," said Gelber in an interview with NBC 6. 'The governor is not consulting with the mainstream scientists and doctors.'" BIGGER THAN ANTICIPATED — "18,000 Walt Disney World employees are losing their jobs as part of mass layoffs disclosed last month," by Orlando Sentinel's Gabrielle Russon: "Last month, the Walt Disney Co. revealed it was laying off 28,000 employees across its U.S. theme parks division, but the company wouldn't break down exactly where the cuts were coming: Disneyland or Disney World? New federally required government filings give more insight: Orlando's numbers are much higher than California, where Disneyland remains closed because of the coronavirus pandemic." | | | | SPEND ELECTION NIGHT WITH POLITICO FOUR SQUARE: People have been voting for weeks, but Election Day is finally upon us! Join us for a special election night episode of POLITICO "Four Square," where host Eugene Daniels will break down the latest developments from across the country with Chief Political Correspondent Tim Alberta, Chief Washington Correspondent Ryan Lizza, and one of our top political reporters and CNN contributor Laura Barrón-López. Joined by colleagues from across the newsroom throughout the show, expect the group to share the latest exit poll readouts, analyze the closing Trump and Biden campaign strategies, and to share their favorite moments of this long and winding election. Tune in at 9:00 p.m. EST here. | | | | |
| | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | A DEEP DIVE — "Trump, Venezuela and the tug-of-war over a strongman," by New York Times' Nicholas Confessore, Anatoly Kurmanaev and Kenneth P. Vogel: "Mr. Trump, a mutual object of interest, had unformed views but was curious about Venezuela, piqued by its vast oil wealth and by the country's dominance of the Miss Universe contest, which he once owned, according to two former White House aides. He was also focused on re-election. 'Trump saw Venezuela 110 percent through the prism of Florida's electoral votes,' said a former senior U.S. official, who requested anonymity to characterize private conversations. Mr. Trump heard often from Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American senator from Florida, who advised tougher sanctions. Under Mr. Maduro's leadership, the economy of the once-wealthy country had cratered, its health system failed and opposition was often met with violence. But Mr. Trump swung between belligerence that unnerved even his hawkish aides and supreme confidence in his negotiating skills. In summer 2017, while musing publicly about invading Venezuela, he also asked advisers whether he should meet with Mr. Maduro, according to one of the aides." The Ballard connection — "In spring 2017, Brian Ballard, a lobbyist and top Trump fund-raiser from Florida, hosted a meeting with two people who would play a role in the struggle over Venezuela's future. One was Raúl Gorrín, who had amassed a fortune under Venezuela's socialist government while building close ties to both Mr. Maduro and the opposition. He was among a wave of foreign interests reaching out to Mr. Ballard, who had recently opened a Washington office to meet the demand for lobbyists close to the new administration. The other guest was Mauricio Claver-Carone, a longtime lobbyist on Cuba policy and a ferocious defender of the embargo. He had landed at the Treasury Department after working on the Trump campaign but had ambitions for a foreign policy role. Mr. Claver-Carone declined to comment." — "If Biden wins, campaign says he won't talk to Maduro without changes after GOP attacks," by Miami Herald's Alex Daugherty SECRETS — "Venezuela coup plotters met at Trump Doral. Central figure says U.S. officials knew of plan," by El Nuevo Herald's Antonio Maria Delgado and McClatchy's Kevin G. Hall, Shirsho Dasgupta and Ben Wieder: "In a challenge to denials of government involvement, the ex-U.S. special operations sergeant whose security firm took part in a botched Venezuelan coup last May said two Trump administration officials met with and expressed support to planners of Operation Gideon, a Bay of Pigs-type operation that tried to oust Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. It's a story of bungling, bravado and cloak-and-dagger plotting, with plans shared in clandestine meetings in the back of limousines while rolling through Miami, in restaurants and even at dusk on the 12th fairway of the Red Course of Trump Doral, the Miami Herald/McClatchy has learned. Details have been elusive, even as Gideon's planning and execution happened in the nation's capital, South Florida and across the Caribbean Sea in coastal Venezuela." BEHIND THE CURTAIN — "The son of Lev Parnas offers one more Trump tell-all," by POLITICO's Natasha Betrand: But the picture that emerges is arguably as instructive as the insider accounts about policymaking in Trump's Washington. In the first chapter, [Aaron] Parnas describes sitting in on a phone call between Republican Congressman Pete Sessions — who is running for reelection in Texas — and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as they attempted, from a private room on the second floor of BLT Prime, to negotiate a back-channel deal for Maduro to leave Venezuela and travel to the U.S. peacefully. "Maduro jokingly replied: 'I want to watch the Dallas Cowboys,'" Parnas writes. LOCAL MAN — "The Trump effect in Palm Beach County: His presidency altered business and politics; his personality affected the people," by Palm Beach Post's Antonio Fins, Christine Stapleton, Wendy Rhodes and Alexandra Cough: "Today, almost four years and nearly three dozen presidential visits later, Trump's Southern White House years have indelibly changed Palm Beach County. And the way outsiders also view the region, [Kelly] Smallridge said. 'Palm Beach County typically has been viewed as the place you either go to retire or you go to vacation,' said Smallridge. 'What is happening is there is a new life and a new image that is being painted every time you see Air Force One land. It's this new conversation.'" | | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | INVOICE COMING — "Another stiff pension bill looms for Florida schools," by POLITICO's Andrew Atterbury: Florida school districts could see another sizable pension bill in 2021 on top of a sixfold increase in local retirement contributions this year as the state's unfunded obligation to retirees grows. The pain is being felt statewide. The Florida Retirement System's pension liability jumped nearly 6 percent this year, to $32.1 billion, and actuaries are predicting another down year for investment returns that could force school boards, colleges, universities and other state employers to kick in a combined $380 million in new pension contributions in 2021. The ballooning liability has caught the attention of Senate leadership ahead of the 2021 session, with incoming Senate President Wilton Simpson (R-Trilby) calling it "the biggest eyesore that we have." "I hope this year will be the year that we can address that shortfall within the budget," Simpson said last week at the Florida Chamber Foundation's Future of Florida Forum. | | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | BRINGING IT TO LIGHT — "Story of Ocoee Massacre finally being told — 100 years after it happened," by Orlando Sentinel's Stephen Hudak: "Allen Franks was just 18 when he led five siblings hand-in-hand and carried a sixth, his disabled brother, on his back through swampy woods out of Ocoee, away from a mob of white men firing rifles and burning Black homes 100 years ago on Election Night. The kids followed the getaway plan their parents made in the wake of Ku Klux Klan marches just weeks earlier in Orlando, Winter Garden and Ocoee as a warning to Blacks thinking of voting in that year's presidential election, said Gladys Franks Bell, Allen's daughter. 'They knew trouble was coming,' said Bell, now 81, and living in Plymouth." — "Nazi-themed posters found at FGCU; university president issues warning," by Fort Myers News-Press's Michael Braun — "Army Corps of Engineers: Lake Okeechobee rise is slowing, but discharges will continue," by Treasure Coast Newspapers Tyler Treadway | | ODDS, ENDS, AND FLORIDA MEN | | — "10-foot python removed from under car hood in Florida," by Associated Press: " Authorities say a 10-foot Burmese python was removed from under the hood of a car in Florida. The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission said in a tweet Thursday that the snake was coiled up inside the engine compartment of a Ford Mustang in Dania Beach, which is adjacent to Fort Lauderdale. 'Our officers responded and safely captured and removed the approximately 10-foot invasive snake,' the tweet said." BIRTHDAYS: (Was Sunday) State Rep. Cary Pigman … Jesse Panuccio of Boies Schiller Flexner … (Was Saturday) Former Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño …. POLITICO's Michael Kruse ... former Rep. David Jolly (R-Fla.)
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