Monday, October 19, 2020

Stimulus: The never ending story — Corporate America preps for higher taxes — Central bankers stay gloomy

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By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

Stimulus: The never ending story — President Trump on Sunday said he wanted a bigger stimulus package than the $2.2 trillion one pushed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and congressional Democrats. "If she would go along, I think [Republicans] would too." Really?

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been very clear that his caucus does not want a bill bigger than the roughly $500 billion package he will put on the floor this week. And if Trump really wanted this kind of massive stimulus he could have pushed for it months ago instead of obsessing over aid to blue states. It all feels like theater of the absurd at this point.

Pelosi said on Sunday that talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin would continue Monday and that the White House had two days to come up with a deal. But even if that happens, how is that going to get through a GOP Senate that is now worried about its own survival in the majority and has — to some extent — written off Trump as a lost cause.

We can only assume given past experience that Wall Street may bite on Trump and Pelosi's comments. But getting this thing done pre-election still seems like a near impossibility. And frankly it's exhausting to keep doing this dance. Could a miracle happen? Sure. Don't yell at us if it does. We live in weird times. But the odds seem insanely long. Where is the incentive for Pelosi to agree to something in the final days of an election Democrats are increasingly confident will be a major romp for them?

Driving some of the hope: McConnell's statement on Saturday: "If Speaker Pelosi ever lets the House reach a bipartisan agreement with the Administration, the Senate would of course consider it." But as Jake Sherman and our Playbook colleagues noted over the weekend, McConnell doesn't expect a deal or think if there somehow is one that it would clear the Senate.

Compass Point's Isaac Boltansky: "When it comes to the stimulus talks we are still where we have been for months: absolutely nowhere. Even the moments of slight progress, such as the White House moving on testing, are little more than mirages in the swamp"

GOOD MONDAY MORNING — Well, here we go again. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

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Driving the Day

DRIVING THE WEEK — Biggest event comes Thursday night in Nashville, Tenn. with the final debate between Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Trump needs a game changer. Biden needs to just be OK … Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks Monday morning at 8:00 a.m. at the virtual IMF/World Bank meeting on crypto currencies and cross-border payments …

ALSO THIS WEEK — SIFMA holds its annual meeting starting Monday with speakers including SEC Chair Clayton, Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman, JPMorgan U.S. Wealth Management CEO Kristin Lemkau, CFTC Chair Heath Tarbert, TIAA President and CEO Roger Ferguson, Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles and many more.

AND ALSO THIS WEEK — The American Bankers Association hosts an Unconventional Convention Monday and Tuesday featuring ABA president and CEO Rob Nichols, Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida, FDIC Chairman Jelena McWilliams and many more.

THE NEXT CRISIS: EMPTY COMMERCIAL SPACE — Our Katy O'Donnell: "Commercial real estate is in trouble, and turbulence in the $15 trillion market is threatening to bleed over into the broader financial system just as the U.S. struggles to emerge from a recession.

"The longer the pandemic paralyzes hotels, retailers and office buildings, the more difficult it is for property owners to meet their mortgage payments — raising the specter of widespread downgrades, defaults and eventual foreclosures. As companies like J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus and Pier 1 file for bankruptcy, retail properties are losing major tenants with no clear plan to replace them, while hotels are running below 50 percent occupancy."

BANKS STRUGGLE WITH LACK OF FRESH STIMULUS — Our Victoria Guida: "The battle in Washington over the size and scope of a coronavirus relief package has piled on more uncertainty for the nation's banks as they try to plan for an already wildly unpredictable future.

"In calls with investors … executives of some of the biggest U.S. lenders voiced concern about the strength of the recovery, including the pace at which unemployed people are returning to work, and said that without more help from Congress, the economy's struggles are likely to continue. But they also slowed the pace at which they're socking away funds to cover coming losses on their loan books"

TOUGH NEWS FOR TRUMP IN WISCONSIN — Kenosha News' Mitchell Schmidt following Trump's visit to Janesville: "For some, Trump's words rang hollow. The state — much like the rest of the nation — continues to reel from the pandemic, which has forced businesses to shutter and unemployment rates to skyrocket. …

"Trump's economic message carried extra weight in Janesville, a community all too familiar with economic hardship. The Janesville General Motors plant, once located a few miles from where the president spoke, shuttered its doors two days before Christmas 2008 and left the community and thousands of residents in turmoil amid the last economic recession."

CORPORATE AMERICA PREPARES FOR HIGHER TAXESWSJ's Rich Rubin: "As the election nears, companies are closely examining Mr. Biden's plans and modeling higher tax rates … The possibility has always existed, but Democrats' polling leads moved those considerations from back-burner to front of mind …

"'It was always a matter of when and not so much if,' said Albert Liguori, managing director at consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal Taxand. 'Every time we make plans, we make contingency plans.'"

 

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Fly Around

IMF CHIEF SAYS 'MUCH MORE DECISIVE' ACTION NEEDED — Reuters' Andrea Shalal: "The head of the International Monetary Fund on Sunday called for significant steps to address the increasingly unsustainable debt burdens of some countries, urging creditors and debtors to start restructuring processes sooner rather than later.

"IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said a six-month extension of the Group of 20 major economies' freeze in official bilateral payments would help low-income countries hammered by the COVID-19 pandemic, but more urgent action was needed."

VIRUS RESURGENCE SEES WORLD CENTRAL BANKERS STICK TO GLOOMY TONE — Bloomberg's Fergal O'Brien and Piotr Skolimowski: "Global central bankers are under no illusion that they're through the fallout from the coronavirus, issuing fresh warnings about new government restrictions, struggling recoveries and threats to jobs.

"Monetary chiefs from the euro area, Japan and the U.K. were united in their concern about their economies in an online seminar hosted by the Group of 30. They all said risks to the outlook remain to the downside and signaled support is going to be needed for some time. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda even warned that his economy is at risk of a recession if things turn sour."

ICYMI: TREASURY ENCOURAGED BANKS TO PRIORITIZE EXISTING CUSTOMERS FOR PPP LOANS — WSJ's Amara Omeokwe and Ryan Tracy: "The Treasury Department privately encouraged lenders to prioritize existing customers when issuing loans for the federal government's small-business coronavirus aid program, according to a report released Friday by a Democratic-led congressional oversight subcommittee.

"The Treasury Department's actions were one of several ways the Trump administration and several large banks put underserved businesses, including those owned by women and minorities, at a disadvantage when applying for the $670 billion Paycheck Protection Program, said the report from the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis. Banks and other lenders issued PPP loans, and the Small Business Administration guaranteed them."

WHAT WOULD BIDEN'S TAX PLAN MEAN FOR A WEAK ECONOMY? — NYT's Jim Tankersley and Thomas Kaplan: "Mr. Biden and his advisers say tax increases now would accelerate growth by funding a stream of spending proposals that would help the economy, like infrastructure improvement and investments in clean energy.

"At least one independent study supports those claims, finding that Mr. Biden's full suite of plans would bolster economic growth. Researchers at some conservative think tanks project that his tax increases would exert only a modest drag on the economy. Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans say otherwise, arguing that tax increases of any kind threaten to derail the rebound from recession."

A HAWKISH FED BET IS CREATING BUZZ IN KEY PART OF RATES MARKET — Bloomberg's Edward Bolingbroke and Elizabeth Stanton: "In the corner of the U.S. rates market that's most attuned to Federal Reserve policy, a bet has emerged that will deliver a handsome payoff if traders move up the timing for when they expect the next tightening cycle to begin.

"The trade is via options on eurodollar futures, and it's been building in size over the past week. The ramp-up coincides with polls suggesting a growing chance of a Democratic sweep of both the White House and Congress in the Nov. 3 elections. For many investors, that scenario would pave the way for a significant fiscal-spending package, potentially hastening the economy's rebound from the pandemic and causing inflation to accelerate toward the Fed's goal."

COVID TANKED THE ECONOMY, BUT THEN CREDIT SCORES WENT UP — WSJ's AnnaMaria Andriotis: "Millions of Americans lost their jobs and skipped debt payments this year. You wouldn't know it looking at consumer credit scores. While the coronavirus was pummeling the U.S. economy, Americans' credit scores — a metric used in nearly every consumer-lending decision — were rising.

"The average FICO credit score stood at 711 in July, up from 708 in April and 706 a year earlier, according to Fair Isaac Corp., the score's creator. Early estimates suggest the average score has held steady through mid-October at the July level, which is the highest since FICO began keeping track in 2005."

FED'S BOSTIC CAUTIONS THAT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS VERY UNEVEN — Bloomberg's Alister Bull: "Some parts of the U.S. economy are coming back strongly while others are still struggling because of the coronavirus pandemic, said Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic.

"'In some segments the economy is recovering and rebounding in a very robust way,' Bostic said Sunday in an interview on CBS's 'Face the Nation.' 'But in other segments, things like hotels and restaurants, small businesses, particularly in minority and lower-income communities, those places are seeing much more difficult situations.'"

 

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