| | | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Monday. The daily rundown — Between Saturday and Sunday, the number of Florida coronavirus cases increased by 2,539 (0.3 percent), to 755,020; active hospitalizations went down 37 (1.8 percent), to 2,009; deaths rose by 50 (0.3 percent), to 15,967. Do it again — Well, here comes Round 2. Catch a wave — As Democrats have racked up a large lead in mail-in ballots in Florida the last few weeks, the message from Republicans has been, 'Just wait.' Today, early voting will start in 52 out of 67 counties and this will be a chance to see the first signs of the "red wave" President Donald Trump promised last week during a campaign swing through the state. I know there's an answer — Four years ago, Republicans edged Democrats in vote-by-mail while Democrats bested Republicans at early voting. Polls showed this year that most Florida Republicans said they planned to vote in-person, an apparent nod to Trump's invective against mail-in voting (although he later clarified he wasn't talking about this adopted home state). Whatever the reason, more than 1.22 million Democrats have mailed in ballots so far, compared to more than 754,000 Republicans. Here today — One adviser to Joe Biden in Florida — noting a surge of Democratic enthusiasm — said this about the start of early voting: "Let's see if GOP argument of all these [vote-by-mail] holders are just sitting on their ballots because they want to return them in person is accurate." Democrats say that even with their emphasis on vote-by-mail this year they will be ready for early voting. They plan to deploy vans, umbrellas, water and thousands of volunteers. Sen. Kamala Harris will be in the state today, where she is scheduled to be at an early voting drive-in rally in Orlando and a "mobilization event" in Jacksonville. I Get Around — But Republicans counter that their voters in Florida are fired up and will be mobilized. They point to their massive voter contact efforts, their boat and car caravans, and the GOP narrowing the Democrats' voter registration advantage as proof that they will swamp Democrats again just like they did four years ago. So here we go. — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis. ELECTIONLAND: POLITICO is partnering with Electionland , a ProPublica project that works with newsrooms to track voting issues around the country. The Electionland project covers problems that prevent eligible voters from casting their ballots during the 2020 elections. We're part of a coalition of newsrooms around the country that are investigating issues related to voter registration, pandemic-related changes to voting, the shift to vote-by-mail, cybersecurity, voter education, misinformation, and more. Tell us here if you're having trouble voting. | | | | THIS WEEK - NEW EPISODES OF POLITICO'S GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST : The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, but many of those issues exploded over the past year. Are world leaders and political actors up to the task of solving them? Is the private sector? Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe now for Season Two, launching Oct. 21. | | | | |
|  | TRAIL MIX | | 'IT'S ABOUT PATRIOTISM' — "Will flag-waving Latinos win Florida for Trump?" by POLITICO's Sabrina Rodriguez: President Donald Trump has long known that his reelection hinges on him winning the battleground state of Florida — and part of that strategy means getting Cuban Americans in South Florida to the polls in large numbers. But in Hialeah, a working-class, predominantly Cuban city just outside of Miami, a vote for Trump has become about more than just him, or even the Republican Party. It's about patriotism. A drive past the city's biggest intersections shows vendors selling Trump 2020 swag and American flags. And car caravans with dozens of Trump supporters around the city have become a regular occurrence, filled with loud honking and Trump and American flags flung outside windows. — "Ahead of early voting, dueling campaign caravans parade through Miami-Dade County," by Miami Herald's Bianca Padro Ocasio THE APPRENTICE — "Trump jokes he'll fire DeSantis if he loses Florida. 'I'll find a way,'" by Tampa Bay Times' Josh Solomon: "The governor introduced the president on stage at Ocala International Airport. Then [President Donald] Trump got some laughs at [Gov. Ron] DeSantis' expense from the crowd — especially the line where Trump threatened to figure out a way to fire Florida's governor should the president lose the Sunshine State on Election Day. 'You know if we don't win it, I'm blaming the governor,' Trump said. 'I'll fire him somehow. I'm going to fire him. I will find a way.'" | 
President Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally on October 18, 2020 in Carson City, Nevada. | (Stephen Lam/Getty Images) | ON EDGE — "Voter intimidation looms as a concern. Here's how South Florida will fight it," by Sun Sentinel's Lisa J. Huriash: "With early voting about to start Monday in Florida, it's too early to say which particular problems could surface. Marsha Ellison, a South Florida and statewide NAACP leader, said she fears far-right groups, including those supportive of President Donald Trump, would intimidate Black voters as they head to the polls in predominantly Black communities, all to keep them from voting." COLLISION COURSE? — "Will COVID surge before the election in Florida? 'Everybody wants to know the answer,'" by Miami Herald's David Smiley and Ben Conarck: "Political campaigns in the nation's preeminent battleground state are watching two sets of numbers as Election Day approaches: ballot returns and cases of the novel coronavirus. As Floridians begin voting in person Monday — and a flurry of political rallies, sporting events and school re-openings bring scores of people together in one of the worst-hit states by the pandemic — both epidemiologists and candidates are bracing for the possibility of a pre-Election Day surge. 'Everybody wants to know the answer to that question: Are we going to see changes in key COVID-19 metrics prior to the election that could influence voting one way or the other? That really remains a big question mark,' said Jason Salemi, a University of South Florida associate professor of epidemiology who monitors state and federal COVID-19 data. 'You'd be unrealistically disconnected not to be paying close attention with all the things that have transpired of late.'" — "At indoor event Florida event, Trump urges seniors to shield themselves from Covid," by POLITICO's Quint Forgey — "Byron Donalds tests positive for COVID-19, ahead of Trump event in Fort Myers," by Fort Myers News-Press' Amy Bennett Williams — "Okaloosa County supervisor of elections and employee test positive for COVID-19," by WEAR PROXY — "Puerto Rico, unable to vote, becomes crucial to US election," by Associated Press' Danica Coto and Adriana Gomez Licon: "The campaigns of President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are rallying people in a place where U.S. citizens cannot cast ballots but have the ear of hundreds of thousands of potential voters in the battleground state of Florida. The candidates are targeting Puerto Rico in a way never before seen, with the U.S. territory suddenly finding itself in the crosshairs of a high-stakes race even though Puerto Ricans on the island cannot vote in presidential elections despite being U.S. citizens since 1917." RISK FACTOR — "Post investigation: These Florida voting machines ripe for Russian hackers, experts say," by Palm Beach Post's John Pacenti: "Florida may be ripe for the picking, computer scientists say, because numerous counties rely on voting machines that are drawing fire for their vulnerability to a cyberattack. These computer scientists along with election integrity groups familiar with the model that Palm Beach and 48 other counties use, say there are potentially numerous ways for a foreign entity to alter results. They say that state election officials have accepted wholesale the spin from the manufacturer that these machines — which voters at polling places feed ballots into after marking candidates of their choice — are secure." WHAT'S IN YOUR WALLET? — "City of Jacksonville expects reimbursement for $153,000 in GOP convention planning costs," by Florida Times-Union's David Bauerlein: "The city of Jacksonville expects the 2020 Jacksonville Host Committee will cover about $153,000 the city spent to prepare for the Republican National Convention that was slated for Jacksonville before coronavirus concerns forced its cancellation. Mayor Lenny Curry and his staff had said during the run-up to the convention that local taxpayers would not bear any cost for the convention because the host committee and a federal security grant would foot the bill. Jordan Elsbury, chief of staff for Curry, said Friday the host committee has said it will make a payment to the city." GETTING READY — "Trump, Biden muster army of lawyers, poll-watchers for Florida election fight," by Sarasota Herald-Tribune's John Kennedy: "Thousands of poll watchers and attorneys are being deployed in Florida and other battleground states as the Donald Trump and Joe Biden campaigns ready for an Election Day unlike any other – one already sparking a firestorm of court challenges. With an unprecedented 300-plus lawsuits in various stages across key states over the conduct of the election, both presidential camps are bracing for a Nov. 3 contest whose outcome may not be known for days." DISPATCH FROM DORAL — "The rise of 'Magazolano' and the battle for the Venezuelan vote," by POLITICO Magazine's Jesus A. Rodriguez: Many of these voters are not just Trump supporters but impassioned fans of the president. The most fervent among them call themselves magazolanos, a portmanteau of "MAGA" and the Spanish word for "Venezuelan." Online, magazolanos sometimes go to extremes to defend the president's record, including embracing conspiracy theories about Democratic nominee Joe Biden and others in his party. As Trump fell ill with Covid-19 in early October, members of a Facebook group called "Venezolanos con Trump 2020" posted prayers for his recovery, and one user said the president was the "anointed son of God." One recent video posted on the group's page called the Black Lives Matter movement a Marxist group and alleged that the George Floyd protests had been pre-planned to destabilize the country. Nonetheless, the magazolano worldview offers a glimpse into Trump's appeal in the decisive state of Florida: With almost two weeks until the election, this new crop of highly engaged voters just might help deliver the state to the incumbent. 2020 BY THE NUMBERS — So far, 2,497,514 vote-by-mail ballots have been cast for the November election, according to the latest information on the state Division of Elections website. Of those, 1,222,436 have come from Democrats and 754,346 have come from registered Republicans. Overall, there are nearly 3.3 million mail ballots requested but not yet returned. Of those, nearly 1.37 million are held by Democrats and nearly 1.05 million are with Republicans. IT'S A SECRET — "Mystery donor spends $180k on Florida political mail," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: It calls itself "The Truth," but little else is known about a new Florida political committee, its seemingly untraceable donor, or $180,000 in mail it funded just days after its formation. WHAT WILTON'S WATCHING — "The battle for eyes and votes: Unprecedented 'air war' over Panhandle state senate seat," by Tallahassee Democrat's James Call: "The campaign for a North Florida state Senate seat has produced a wave of political television advertising — an "air war," as some consultants call it — unlike anything Tallahassee has recently experienced. To be sure, the thousands of commercials aired in the race to succeed term-limited Sen. Bill Montford, D-Tallahassee, offer few new policy proposals from either candidate. … [Marva] Preston went on the air first, with an introductory ad about attending the first desegregated high school in Wakulla, then launched an offensive questioning [Loranne] Ausley's ethics, family wealth and ties to the Democratic Party. Once Ausley responded to Preston's attacks, the two began funneling hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy air time. This Monday closes out a three-week run which aired 2,793 spots on the ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX affiliates (Sept. 28-Oct. 19)." 11TH HOUR — "Late guidance from Florida's elections chief could affect counties' plan for mail ballot drop boxes," by Tampa Bay Times' Allison Ross: "Late guidance this week from the Florida Department of State on mail ballot drop boxes has forced many county elections officials to reconsider their plans only days before the start of early voting in the 2020 general election. Vote-by-mail drop boxes must be staffed at all times they are in use by either an elections employee or a sworn law enforcement officer, according to a Wednesday memo from the department's general counsel, Brad McVay, to Florida's 67 supervisors of elections." — "Florida's election may hinge on mail ballot signatures: 'The hanging chad of 2020,'" by Miami Herald's Mary Ellen Klas — "Ad claims defense attorney Kagan, in HD 29 race against Plakon, is 'on the criminals side,'" by Orlando Sentinel's Annie Martin — "Brother weighs against Scott Plakon in HD 29 battle with Tracey Kagan," by Florida Politics' Scott Powers — "Trump flotilla, complete with tribute barge, flows from Jupiter to Mar-a-Lago," by Palm Beach Post's Hannah Winston — "Ivanka Trump to attend fundraiser in Naples on Wednesday," by Naples Daily News Devan Patel — "Burt Bacharach, singing and rallying Florida seniors for Biden, doesn't hold back on Trump. 'I can't stand this man,'" by Sun Sentinel's Anthony Man — "Donald Trump Jr. holds campaign rally for father, GOP in West Palm Beach," by Palm Beach Post's Julius Whigham II — 'We have lost a lot': James Clyburn, Al Lawson make 'rural' pitch for Joe Biden," by Florida Politics' A.G. Gancarski | | | | GLOBAL PULSE, GLOBAL PURPOSE: At a high-stakes moment when global health has become a household concern, it is pivotal to keep up with the politics and policy driving change. Global Pulse connects leaders, policymakers and advocates to the people and politics driving global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today for this new weekly newsletter. | | | | |
| | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | BROKEN SYSTEM — "Florida took thousands of kids from families, then failed to keep them safe," by USA Today Network's Michael Braga, Pat Beall, Daphne Chen and Josh Salman: "Six years ago, Florida lawmakers embraced a tough new approach to stop parents from abusing their children. They approved millions of dollars to hire more child welfare investigators and rewrote rules to make it easier to seize children from their parents. Then they told investigators to rewire their thinking. Instead of looking for every way possible to keep families together, they had a new priority: protect children at all costs. The plan, signed into law by then-Gov. Rick Scott, was widely embraced as a historic stand against child abuse, a crucial rethinking of philosophy that had made regulators soft on abusers. But there was a problem. No one had figured out where to put all the children. In a matter of months, the foster care system found itself drowning in hundreds of new cases." Tried to keep it a secret — "DCF and the nonprofit agencies in charge of foster care repeatedly tried to prevent USA TODAY from obtaining information about foster parents and the allegations against them. They would not provide a list of parent names and demanded $50,000 for search and copy fees for disciplinary records. In reaction to one USA TODAY records request, DCF officials pressed legislators to pass a law making foster parent names secret from the public – an effort that ultimately failed. In a January statement, DCF Secretary Chad Poppell said many problems in Florida's system stem from the decision to privatize foster care in the early 2000s, putting decision-making in the hands of 17 nonprofits across the state." — "Florida officials investigate 'malicious activity' in state business regulation system," by Miami Herald's Ana Ceballos | | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | TEAR IT DOWN? — "Developer makes offer on Jeffrey Epstein's Palm Beach house with plans to raze it," by Palm Beach Daily News' Darrell Hofheinz: "Developer Todd Michael Glaser has made an offer to buy the Palm Beach home of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein with plans to raze it and build a house there on speculation, Glaser has told the Palm Beach Daily News. But any sale is still in the early stages and not yet finalized. Glaser has put down an initial deposit on the property, but he wouldn't disclose the amount or how much he has offered to pay for the house." CORCORAN TIME — "Fla. education chief moves to strip license from principal in Holocaust furor," by Palm Beach Post's Andrew Marra: "Florida's education commissioner inserted himself into the roiling controversy over the reinstatement of a Palm Beach County principal who declined to call the Holocaust a fact, directing his administration to strip the principal's educator certificate. Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran said Friday that former Spanish River High School Principal William Latson "took advantage of his position of trust" and that state officials had a duty to remove the certificate that authorizes him to educate public school students." 'YOU HAVE TO FILL OUT A FORM' — "Woman who gave birth in in jail cell: 'They just wanted to see how much pain I could endure,'" by Sun Sentinel's Rafael Olmeda: "The woman who recently gave birth to her baby boy in a Broward jail cell says she begged in vain for anyone to come help. She says she was terrified of having a miscarriage — left alone until minutes before her child was born. Stephanie Bretas, in an exclusive interview with the South Florida Sun Sentinel, on Friday gave a harrowing account of delivering her son in jail, describing squalid conditions and decrying the indifference of nurses and detention deputies who failed to help her until it was nearly too late." DISMISSED — "Judge cites 'Stand Your Ground,' drops charge against Broward deputy in rough teen arrest," by Miami Herald's Charles Rabin: "A judge on Friday cited the state's Stand Your Ground law in dismissing a battery charge against a Broward sheriff's deputy who was involved in the rough arrest of a Black teen in early 2019 that made national headlines." SECRETS OF THE VAULT — "Big banks entrusted money to GardaWorld. I secretly lost track of millions," by Tampa Bay Times' Bethany Barnes: "Brian Newell had been a manager at one of GardaWorld's armored truck branches for about a year when a high-ranking supervisor called in 2018 with a bizarre order: Load all the coins stored at his branch in Connecticut onto a truck bound for Massachusetts. Auditors from Bank of America were coming to Garda's Dedham, Mass., branch to count money that Garda was being paid to protect. And some of it was missing." — "Hundreds march in Fort Lauderdale to support equal rights, maximum voter participation, justice for all," by Sun Sentinel's Wayne K. Roustan — "Call to action: Hundreds demonstrate in downtown Fort Myers, 'We are seeing these rights threatened,'" by Fort Myers News-Press's Kaitlin Greenockle | | ODDS, ENDS, AND FLORIDA MEN | | — "Orange Circuit Judge Alan Apte accused of molestation, governor's order says," by Orlando Sentinel's David Harris and Monivette Cordeiro: "Orange Circuit Judge Alan Apte has been accused of molestation, according to an executive order by Gov. Ron DeSantis. The order, signed Wednesday, assigns the case to Daytona-based State Attorney R.J. Larizza because Orange-Osceola State Attorney Aramis Ayala has a conflict of interest as Apte is a judge in her circuit and used to work for the State Attorney's Office." BIRTHDAYS: State Rep. Ramon Alexander … State Rep. Brett Hage … (Was Sunday) State Rep. Amber Mariano … former Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Fla.) is 6-0 .... CBS' Caitlin Conant (h/t husband Alex) … Dara Kam, senior writer/editor with the News Service of Florida ... Richard Lobo, former director of International Broadcasting Bureau … Alma Gonzalez, former general counsel at AFSCME … Valerie Soto Orama … (Was Saturday) Mark Hollis, associate state director communications and outreach at AARP Texas and former comms director for Florida House Democrats ... Scott Randolph, Orange County tax collector and former legislator
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