Friday, October 16, 2020

Sector Analysis and Key Events for Friday

INO.com  INO Morning Markets Report

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Summary
The Dow Future has gained 77 points to 28460. The US Dollar Index declined 0.235 points to 93.621. Gold has gained 4.68 dollars to 1910.62. Silver is up 0.1595 dollars to 24.4230. The Dow Industrials retreated 19.80 points, at 28494.20, while the S&P 500 eased 5.33 points, last seen at 3483.34. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 54.86 points to 11713.87. Streaming charts of these markets are available at MarketClub

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Key Events for Friday

5:30 AM ET. IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings plenary session

8:30 AM ET. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Mfg Idx (expected 12.0; previous 17.0)

Employment Idx (previous 2.6)

New Orders Idx (previous 7.1)

Prices Received (previous 6.5)

8:30 AM ET. October Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

Business Activity (Expected 14.0; previous 15.0)

Prices Paid (previous 25.1)

Employment (previous 15.7)

New Orders (previous 25.5)

Prices Received (previous 18.4)

Delivery Times (previous 12.2)

Inventories (previous -10.8)

Shipments (previous 36.6)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

Jobless Claims (expected 830K; previous 840K)

Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)

Continuing Claims (previous 10976000)

Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -1003K)

8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes

Import Prices (expected +0.1%; previous +0.9%)

Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)

Petroleum Prices (previous +2.9%)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3831B)

Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +75B)

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 492.927M)

Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.501M)

Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 226.747M)

Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.435M)

Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 171.796M)

Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.962M)

Refinery Usage (previous 77.1%)

Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.345M)

Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.898M)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank

8:30 AM ET. September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.6%)

Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)

Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1225.7K)

Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2590.7K)

Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 568K)

9:15 AM ET. September Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)

Capacity Utilization % (expected 71.8%; previous 71.4%)

Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)

10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

Total Inventories (expected +0.4%; previous +0.1%)

10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary

Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 80.4; previous 78.9)

Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 73.3)

Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.5)

4:00 PM ET. August Treasury International Capital Data



 
Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
US DOLLAR INDEX 93.621 -0.235 -0.25%
Invesco DB US Dollar Index 25.33 +0.13 +0.52%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.319850 -0.003795 -0.29%
Euro/US Dollar 1.173425 +0.003135 +0.27%
JAPANESE YEN Oct 2020 0.009498 +0.000016 +0.17%
SWISS FRANC Dec 2020 1.0966 +0.0015 +0.14%
US Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar 7.75002 -0.00004 -0.00%
CURRENCIES:http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed down 56 points at 1.1710 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-week low today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The December Japanese yen closed down 245 points at .94960 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.

The December Swiss franc closed down 20 points at 1.0950 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The Swissy bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The December Canadian dollar closed down 51 points at .7557 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on a pullback after hitting a five-week high Tuesday. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

The December British pound closed down 99 points at 1.2929 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are still working on a price uptrend on the daily chart.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 0.459 at 93.825 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling downtrend line on the daily bar chart was negated today.




 
Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Nov 2020 40.62 -0.30 -0.74%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Nov 2020 1.1762 -0.0115 -1.01%
NATURAL GAS Nov 2020 2.783 +0.002 +0.08%
RBOB GASOLINE Nov 2020 1.1632 -0.0193 -1.64%
Invesco DWA Energy Momentum ETF 13.5295 +0.2325 +1.70%
United States Gasoline 20.0395 -0.2505 -1.32%

ENERGIES

ENERGIES: November Nymex crude oil closed down $0.85 at $40.18 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has turned choppy and there are still stiff chart resistance levels that lie just overhead.

November heating oil closed down 201 points at $1.1724 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.2500.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 324 points at $1.1647 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.

November natural gas closed up 15.1 cents at $2.787 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Trading has turned choppy and highly volatile again. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.




 
Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COFFEE DECEMBER 2020 110.70 +1.20 +1.10%
SUGAR #11 WORLD MARCH 2021 14.38 +0.20 +1.41%
SUGAR #16 JANUARY 2021 27.37 -0.13 -0.47%
ORANGE JUICE - A NOVEMBER 2020 116.70 +0.90 +0.78%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG SUGAR SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 42.5500 -0.0257 -0.07%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG SOFTS SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 37.6529 -0.1271 -0.33%

FOOD & FIBER

SOFTS: March sugar closed up 10 points at 14.30 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a seven-month-high close. The sugar bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

December coffee closed up 30 points at 109.90 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December cocoa closed down $57 at $2,334 a ton today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a 2.5- month low today. The cocoa bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for three weeks.

December cotton closed down 6 points at 68.87 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 6.5- month-old price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

November orange juice closed up 110 points at $1.1690 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. FCOJ bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are gaining momentum.




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Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN Dec 2020 406.00 +2.25 +0.61%
OATS Dec 2020 295.50 +2.50 +0.92%
WHEAT Dec 2020 621.00 +1.75 +0.32%
Teucrium Corn Fund ETV 13.550 +0.120 +0.93%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG GRAINS SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 47.3400 +0.7257 +1.69%
ELEMENTS Linked to the ICE BofAML Commodity Index eXtra Grains Total Return 2.96 -0.11 -3.94%
SOYBEANS Nov 2020 1068.00 +6.25 +0.62%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Nov 2020 1068.000 +7.625 +0.75%
SOYBEAN MEAL Dec 2020 374.1 +2.5 +0.77%
Teucrium Soybean Fund ETV 16.18 +0.03 +0.19%

GRAINS

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 5 3/4 cents at $4.02 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a nine-month high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

January soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents today at $10.60 3/4 a bushel. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A six-month-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

December soybean meal closed up $7.20 at $370.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a new contract high. The meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

December bean oil closed down 70 points at 33.18 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 34.00 cents.

December SRW wheat closed up 16 1/2 cents at $6.13 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a two-year high close. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

December HRW wheat closed up 16 3/4 cents today at $5.52. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a 15- month high. HRW bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chat.




 
Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 28494.20 -19.80 -0.07%
NASDAQ Composite 11713.87 -54.86 -0.49%
S&P 500 3483.34 -5.33 -0.16%
SPDR S&P 500 347.54 -0.39 -0.11%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF 162.77 +1.68 +1.10%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: U.S. stock indexes closed lower again today. Global stock markets were mostly down overnight. The worrisome spread of the Covid-19 virus in major industrialized countries and elsewhere, with Europe getting hit extra hard, has traders and investors in more risk averse modes late this week. France declared a state of emergency on Wednesday, regarding the spreading virus. Reports Wednesday the U.S. Congress is nowhere close to a second, new major stimulus package for Americans has also dampened trader and investor sentiment. The marketplace is also getting a bit more jittery ahead of the U.S. elections in less than three weeks. Reports this week say China is looking to punish foreign nations and companies by restricting their access to rare earth minerals. The National People's Congress is expected to review draft legislation on the matter ahead of its potential decree and implementation next year. The law would be a serious threat to western manufacturers, even though China has been limiting the availability of key rare earth minerals for some time by using export quotas and selling mainly to companies with manufacturing bases in China. The important outside markets early today saw the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices were lower and trading around $40.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10- year Treasury note is 0.698% today.



 
Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Dec 2020 175.28125 +0.12500 +0.07%
iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF 50.687 -0.002 -0.00%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Dec 2020 125.875000 +0.031250 +0.02%
ULTRA T-BONDS Dec 2020 219.84375 +0.31250 +0.14%
Invesco Senior Loan Portf 21.79 -0.04 -0.18%

INTEREST RATES

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 4/32 at 175 16/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bond market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 0.5 (32nds) at 139.06.5 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The note market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field.




 
Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE Oct 2020 139.050 +0.650 +0.46%
LEAN HOGS Dec 2020 69.850 +1.550 +2.51%
LIVE CATTLE Oct 2020 107.875 -0.625 -0.59%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG LIVESTOCK SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 34.7034 +0.3334 +0.98%

LIVESTOCK

LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.72 at $109.55 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a four-week low. Bulls still have the overall near- term technical advantage but are fading this week and need to show fresh power soon.

November feeder cattle closed up $0.02 at $136.35 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the overall level near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower.

December lean hogs closed up $0.97 at $69.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a nine-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. A 10-week-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in place.




 
Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Oct 2020 1906.3 -0.6 -0.03%
SPDR Gold Trust 178.91 +0.64 +0.35%
SILVER Oct 2020 24.255 +0.062 +0.23%
PALLADIUM Dec 2020 2344.8 -18.2 -0.76%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares 17.64 +0.54 +3.33%
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund 52.3897 +0.1130 +0.21%

PRECIOUS METALS

METALS: December gold futures were down $0.30 at $1,907.00 in midday trading today and nearer the session high. The gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as trading has turned choppy.

December silver futures were down $0.195 at $24.205 at midday today and nearer the session high. Silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

December N.Y. copper closed up 265 points at 307.70 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid choppy trading at higher levels.




 
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Top Futures
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1. ES.Z20 S&P 500 INDEX (E-MINI) Dec 2020 3484.75 +9.25 +0.27% 193,082 +100    Entry Signal
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5. QG.X20 NATURAL GAS (E-MINI) Nov 2020 2.785 +0.010 +0.38% 1,263 +100    Entry Signal
6. BZT.Z20 CRUDE OIL BRENT LAST DAY (TAS) Dec 2020 0.50 0.00 0.00% 887 +100    Entry Signal
7. @MW.H21 HARD RED SPRING WHEAT MARCH 2021 571.50 0.00 0.00% 311 +100    Entry Signal
8. NG.Z22 NATURAL GAS Dec 2022 2.793 +0.027 +0.98% 142 +100    Entry Signal
9. NG.M22 NATURAL GAS Jun 2022 2.455 +0.019 +0.77% 120 +100    Entry Signal
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