| | | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Presented by Facebook | Hello and welcome to Thursday. 2020 BY THE NUMBERS — So far, 4,066,974 vote-by-mail ballots have been cast for the November election, according to the latest information on the state Division of Elections website. Of those, 1,888,415 have come from Democrats and 1,267,507 have come from registered Republicans. Overall, there are nearly 1.93 million mail ballots requested but not yet returned. Of those, nearly 793,000 are held by Democrats and more than 602,000 are with Republicans. A total of 2,854,384 voters have cast ballots at an early voting site. Of those 1,328,312 were Republicans and 953,316 are Democrats. Danger signs — A new poll out this morning from Telemundo shows that Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a narrow lead among Hispanics in Florida, writes POLITICO's Sabrina Rodriguez. Five points — Biden leads Trump among Hispanics by just 48-43 percent, numbers that could mean trouble for the former vice president in the nation's biggest swing state. While Florida isn't a must-win state for Biden the way it is for Trump, a failure to generate stronger numbers among Hispanics could ensure he loses the state's 29 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton received 62 percent of Florida's Hispanic vote in 2016, according to exit polls, and still lost. Saving Trump? — Part of Trump's better numbers this time around are due to strong support from Cuban American voters. Trump has long touted his support within that community after winning 54 percent of the their vote in 2016. Now, he is leading among them by 71 percent to 23 percent, according to the new poll. "That might be the thing that saves Donald Trump in Florida," Brad Coker, pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy said. Coker said Venezuelans and Colombians registered similarly strong support for Trump. However, Biden leads with Puerto Ricans in Florida, 66 percent to 23 percent, a fast-growing group in the state that has traditionally lower turnout rates. Contrary numbers — A Univision poll released Wednesday painted a different picture. It showed Biden doing markedly better among Florida Hispanics, leading Trump by 20 points, 57 to 37 percent. A CBS News Battleground poll released last week had Biden leading among Hispanics in Florida by 27 points. — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis, The daily rundown — Between Tuesday and Wednesday, the number of Florida coronavirus cases increased by 4,115 (0.5 percent), to 790,426; active hospitalizations went down 10 (0.4 percent), to 2,337; deaths rose by 66 (nearly 0.4 percent), to 16,571. | | | | A message from Facebook: A vote counted is a voice heard
Check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and get access to the latest, official information from election authorities in our Voting Information Center on Facebook and Instagram.
Explore the Voting Information Center now | | | |  | TRAIL MIX | | IMPORTANT — "Poll: Biden holds narrow lead among Florida Hispanics," by POLITICO's Sabrina Rodriguez: "Even if he were to pull most of the undecided vote still out there, Trump is going to do better this time than he did last time," [Pollster Brad] Coker added. Trump received 35 percent of the Florida Hispanic vote in 2016 exit polls. The Florida poll results follow months of criticism from Hispanic Democrats. Biden's campaign was late in ramping up its efforts to build Hispanic support and fight GOP messaging that Biden, Sen. Kamala Harris and Democrats are socialists — a message that has resonated in South Florida's Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian and Nicaraguan communities. AMERICA'S NEXT GREAT CITY — "Trump's path in Florida," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo: Hello from the state of election cliffhangers, where on Thursday, in a rare crossing of paths, President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden will campaign in the same city, Tampa. It's the heart of the Tampa Bay media market, which forms the westernmost barbell end of the I-4 Corridor, which is geographically and politically in the center of the state (but more on that later). The dueling visits underscore how the path to the White House runs through the region. Tampa Bay's mix of urban, suburban, rural, white, Black, Hispanic, working-class and retired voters gives Tampa Bay an Everywhere, USA feel. Dueling — And its central importance to the swing region of the swing state — one Trump needs to win for a second term — heightens the importance of their visits. Trailing by various margins in most polls of most swing states, Trump is still essentially tied with Biden in Florida. If the president is going to have another come-from-behind victory, it starts here. And if Biden wants to kill Trump's chances in one place, Florida is the MAGA horcrux and Tampa is the place to smash it. 2024 WATCH — "Scott opens up his wallet for Trump in Florida," by POLITICO's Marc Caputo: Florida GOP Sen. Rick Scott is rallying behind President Donald Trump in signature fashion: with a big TV ad buy. Scott's political committee announced Wednesday he was making a "significant six-figure buy" boosting Trump and attacking Democrats on the airwaves in the president's must-win state, where the Republicans have been outgunned in spending in recent months. Scott's direct-to-camera ad isn't only about advancing the president's interests. It also raises the first-term senator's profile as he seeks to become the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Scott — who has an eye on a potential presidential bid in 2024 and his own reelection that year — has run two other ads during this presidential cycle, one attacking Joe Biden that aired in Iowa and another attacking Sen. Bernie Sanders that aired in Miami. | 
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 05: Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) questions Homeland Security Deputy Secretary Ken Cuccinelli and Assistant HHS Secretary for Preparedness and Response Robert Kadlec during a Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing on the government's response to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on March 5, 2020 in Washington, DC. COVID-19 has taken hold in the United States and national and local governments are rushing to contain the virus and finding a cure. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images) | Samuel Corum/Getty Images | SURPRISE — "Florida man charged after altering governor's voter registration," by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was briefly unable to vote this week because a 20-year-old Naples man altered the Republican governor's home address in the state's voter registration database. Florida authorities arrested Anthony Steven Guevara late Tuesday and charged him with two counts, including felony voter fraud for changing someone's registration without their consent. MESSAGING — "Ratcliffe went off script with Iran remarks, officials say," by POLITICO's Natasha Bertrand and Daniel Lippman: Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe went off script when he alleged during a press conference last week that Iran was sending intimidating emails to Americans in order to "damage President Trump," according to two senior administration officials with knowledge of the episode. The reference to Trump was not in Ratcliffe's prepared remarks about the foreign election interference, as shown to and signed off by FBI Director Chris Wray and senior DHS official Chris Krebs, the director of the department's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency... Ratcliffe attributed the emails to Iran but said they were "designed to intimidate voters, incite social unrest, and damage President Trump," raising immediate questions about how threatening Democrats to vote for Trump could be aimed at damaging the president's re-election bid — and how the intelligence community had made that determination within 24 hours of the messages. LOOKING BACK — "How unpredictable could this election be? Five lessons from the Florida recount," by Madeline Kaplan and Leon Neyfakh for POLITICO Magazine: It's not what they teach you in school about the workings of American democracy, but in the year 2000, it seemed distinctly possible that the entire presidential election would turn on whether or not a single government office in Tallahassee, Florida, was open on a Sunday. The race between Al Gore and George W. Bush had deadlocked, and Florida's 25 electoral votes would determine who won. The all-important office in Tallahassee belonged to the Florida secretary of state, whose duties included certifying Florida's official vote total." | | | | HAPPENING TODAY - CONFRONTING INEQUALITY IN AMERICA: POLITICO Live is convening physicians, advocates, and policymakers for its second town hall in the Confronting Inequality in America series. Join the group to discuss the policy and public health solutions needed to solve the inequalities in the U.S. health care system that have a disproportionate impact on Black and other patients of color. REGISTER HERE TO JOIN THE CONVERSATION. | | | | |
EVERY VOTE COUNTS — "Florida Democrats look to increase Black voter turnout as Biden visits Broward County," by Miami Herald's David Smiley: "But before heading to Central Florida, [JOE] Biden will hold a get-out-the-vote rally in Democrat-heavy Broward County, his second 'drive-in' rally there this month. The county is Florida's bluest, and home to 310,000 mostly Democratic Black voters — a critical voting bloc in Biden's base. 'There's still a lot of work left to do to mobilize black voters,' Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Democrat tech firm Hawkfish, told reporters on a call Wednesday. So far, Black voter turnout is up statewide over the same period in 2016, as is most every other demographic in an election that has already seen a record number of early votes cast. But it's also true that Black voters are casting ballots at lower rates than their white counterparts, setting up a crucial final five days heading into Nov. 3.
FINGERS CROSSED — "Florida's botched-election history spurs bid to make it a model," by Bloomberg's Todd Shields: "Florida, known for its voting flubs and hanging chads since an excruciating recount in the 2000 presidential contest, has remade itself into a model of election efficiency for the Covid era of mail-in voting. Votes cast at early-voting sites or via the mail there are already being loaded into counting equipment and most will have been tabulated as Election Day begins on Nov. 3. Computers are primed to spit out results almost as soon as polls close at 7 p.m. That means it's set to deliver results quickly — in contrast to other battlegrounds including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, where laws don't let officials tally the stacks of mailed ballots until Election Day, possibly setting up days of tense counting." BUT THEN THERE'S THIS — "Black and Hispanic voters more likely to have ballots rejected," by Sun Sentinel's Mario Ariza and Andrew Boryga: "A disproportionate number of vote-by-mail ballots cast by Blacks and Hispanics in South Florida are being flagged for errors by election officials, an analysis shows. In Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade counties, the rate of ballot rejections for Black voters is almost twice as high as for white voters, according to an analysis of state data by America Votes Florida, a progressive nonprofit. For Hispanic voters, it's more than double. A total of 1,132,084 votes by mail have been cast in the three counties as of Thursday. Some 7,505 ballots have been flagged for errors such as missing signatures or signatures that don't match those on file. Flagged ballots can be fixed, but only 3,965 flagged ballots had been fixed so far. Flagged ballots that are not fixed by the Nov. 5 deadline are thrown out." DUVAL DISPATCH — "In Florida's Old South, a new political battleground emerges," by Associated Press' Bobby Caina Calvan: "The farther north you go in Florida, the saying goes, the deeper South you'll get. For generations, the Old South flourished in Duval County, a sprawling metropolis on the state's northern Atlantic coast that is home to Jacksonville and was once a reliable bastion of Republican power. But when the Democratic gubernatorial candidate won the county two years ago, it energized Democrats and community activists aspiring to turn Jacksonville into another hub in the new, more Democratic South." DRAW BACK THE CURTAIN — "Cigarette giant Reynolds American gave $80,000 in 2018 to secretive group behind controversial constitutional amendment," by Orlando Sentinel's Jason Garcia: "Cigarette giant Reynolds American Inc. gave $80,000 in 2018 to the secretive group that now wants to make it harder to amend Florida's constitution, according to tax records obtained by the Orlando Sentinel. The North Carolina-based Big Tobacco company, which makes Newport and Camel cigarettes and Vuse e-cigarettes, is the first known corporate contributor to Keep Our Constitution Clean Inc., the nonprofit that has spent more than $9 million in support of a proposed amendment that, if approved by voters, would require all future constitutional amendments to go through two statewide votes." 'WE'LL DO OUR THING LOCALLY' — "Rights of nature are on the ballot in Florida, in defiance of the Legislature," by POLITICO's Bruce Ritchie: Voters in Florida's Orange County are being asked to grant legal rights to rivers, lakes and other players in the ecosystem. If they approve the charter amendment, the county could become the largest municipality in the nation to join the budding rights of nature movement. But even if the central Florida county unites behind the ballot measure, it has a long road to becoming law, thanks to a defensive move pushed by GOP state lawmakers earlier this year. "The Legislature can think they have done their job to kill this nascent effort," said Chuck O'Neal, chair of the Right to Clean Water, a political committee that pushed the ballot initiative, and president of an environmental group suing the state. "They can think that, and just mind their own business," he said, "and we'll do our thing locally." CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — The Trump campaign on Wednesday began airing Spanish-language ads in south and central Florida that coincide with the release of the president's "American Dream plan" for Hispanics … Mike Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC is airing new ads in Florida during the final week of the election. "Like We've Never Seen It" assails Trump's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, while "Middle Class First" focuses on how Joe Biden's tax plans will affect the middle class … Latino Victory Fund said Wednesday it was spending more than $500,000 on digital ads in several battleground states for "First Latinas" candidates, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is running in Florida's 26th Congressional District …. Independence USA PAC started airing a Spanish-language ad in the Miami market featuring Cuban-born anti-communist author Carlos Alberto Montaner. In "Ellos Lo Son", Montaner says that Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris are not communists or socialists … A new ad from Democrat Pan Keith in the race for Florida's 18th Congressional District attacks GOP Rep. Brian Mast over not wearing a mask. — "Pete Buttigieg visits Tampa Bay to boost Biden, warns of attack on equal rights," by Tampa Bay Times' William March — "Despite Trump's call, the army of poll watchers in South Florida is on Biden's side," by Sun Sentinel's Brittany Wallman\ | | | |   | | |
| | CORONAVIRUS UPDATES | | THE REAL TOLL? — "COVID-19 is claiming more lives than official data indicates," by Sun Sentinel's Mario Ariza: "Patrick Hidalgo died on the second day of March, in his apartment, at 41 years old, after complaining to his family of waking up in the middle of the night and gasping for breath. The Miami-Dade county medical examiner attributed the death of this former Obama staffer to heart disease. His family says it was COVID-19. Hidalgo isn't counted as a virus death in Florida, but he illustrates that the pandemic has claimed far more people than the official death count indicates. Today, official coronavirus deaths stand at 16,505 in Florida. Yet the true number of dead from the pandemic could be up to 25% higher if you include people who are listed as having died of other causes brought on by the pandemic, according to a new study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention." FORGET LOCAL SCHOOL BOARDS — "State may order students back to classrooms in January," by Sun Sentinel's Lisa J. Huriash: "The state of Florida may force all students to return to school buildings in January, even as COVID-19 cases are increasing. About 37% percent of students in Florida are attending school virtually this year, many because they fear they won't be safe at school. The state is deciding whether they will continue to have that option after the current semester. Gov. Ron DeSantis closed school buildings in March as the coronavirus pandemic grew, but he ordered districts to offer the option of in-person learning for the current school year. His order allowing at-home learning will expire Jan. 8." BUT OH BY THE WAY — "Hundreds of students at three Miami-Dade public schools quarantined due to COVID-19," by Miami Herald's David Goodhue and Colleen Wright: "Hundreds of Miami-Dade high school students at two campuses, as well as dozens of teachers at each of those schools, have been quarantined because of increased cases of COVID-19, according to the teachers union. The schools are Miami Senior High School and Barbara Goleman Senior High in Miami Lakes, said Karla Hernandez-Mats, president of United Teachers of Dade. Additionally, a teacher at Palmetto Middle School in Pinecrest told the Miami Herald on Wednesday that more than 200 students and 24 teachers there are quarantined for two weeks." DESANTIS WANTED STADIUM FULL — "Super Bowl 55 likely to feature limited audience at Raymond James Stadium," by Tampa Bay Times' Joey Knight and Rick Stroud: "The NFL is considering a plan for Raymond James Stadium to be only 20 percent full for Super Bowl 55 early next year, with the possibility it also could expand that figure in coming months. The 22-year-old stadium has a capacity of 65,618. The audience would be a little more than 13,000 at 20 percent, which is similar to what Tampa Bay Buccaneers home contests currently permit, based on social-distance protocols established by the team and Tampa Sports Authority, which operates the stadium." FALLOUT — "Walt Disney World layoffs slash entertainment, leaving big shows in limbo," by Orlando Sentinel's Matthew J. Palm: "Walt Disney World laid off entertainers from its highest-profile shows Tuesday night in what some described as a 'bloodbath' as the scale of the layoffs rocked the Central Florida arts community. The deluge of pink slips showed the theme park has no foreseeable plans to remount marquee attractions such as 'Festival of the Lion King' or 'Finding Nemo: The Musical,' both of which have been dark since COVID-19 shut the parks this spring." — "Florida changes COVID-19 data on the percent of tests coming back positive," by Miami Herald's Ben Conarck — "Pinellas-Pasco public defender: Coronavirus too big a risk for trials to resume," by Tampa Bay Times' Kathryn Varn | | | | DONT MISS - NEW EPISODES OF POLITICO'S GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST: The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, but many of those issues exploded over the past year. Are world leaders and political actors up to the task of solving them? Is the private sector? Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe for Season Two, available now. | | | | |
| | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | DEADLINE — "Deportation looms for immigrants in Tampa Bay who are losing protected status," by Tampa Bay Times' Juan Carlos Chavez: "The clock is ticking for Marco Antonio Arita. Unless something changes, the 47-year-old Honduran immigrant loses his standing as a legal resident of the United States in nine weeks. So do some 411,000 other people who were granted what's known as Temporary Legal Status because of wars or natural disasters in the 10 countries they called home. The Trump administration imposed a Jan. 4 deadline to begin phasing out the program because conditions in those countries have changed. Arita, who has lived in the United States more than two decades and whose two children were born here, has no plans yet for what he'll do next." | | | | A message from Facebook: Explore Facebook's Voting Information Center
More than 39 million people have visited our Voting Information Center, which makes it easy to check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and prepare to vote safely.
Explore the Voting Information Center now | | |
| | ODDS, ENDS, AND FLORIDA MEN | | — "'F*ck you, Linder!' Broward lawyer to apologize for cursing out prosecutor in Zoom court," by Miami Herald's David Ovalle: "A Broward assistant public defender has been asked to apologize after he yelled out "F*ck you, Linder!" to a prosecutor during a recorded Zoom court hearing on Wednesday morning. The outburst shocked lawyers and observers during the routine morning calendar, which has been held remotely for months because of the coronavirus pandemic. The lawyer, Dale Miller, said he thought his microphone was off." BIRTHDAYS: Former Sen. Connie Mack is 8-0 … State Rep. Melony Bell … Kristen Bridges, communications director for GrayRobinson … Caroline Rowland …. Rivers Buford III, former legislative affairs director at the Department of State.
| Want to make an impact? POLITICO Florida has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Sunshine State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.
| | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment