Wednesday, October 28, 2020

FX Strategy 28 Oct 2020

 
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FX Strategy 28 Oct 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, JPY and AUD are the top gainers today, up 0.22% and 0.06% versus the dollar while NOK and EUR are the top losers, down -0.36% and -0.29% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.022, flat 0.0bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.631, down -0.9bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.758, down -1.3bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.216, down -1.8bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Kospi was trading at 2345.26, up 0.62%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23418.51, down -0.29%. The Hang Seng was trading at 24664.0, down -0.5%. In the European equities, indices were trading weak today. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3011.64, down -1.92%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5647.35, down -1.43%. The DAX 30 was trading at 11800.6, down -2.18%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3352.38, down -0.91%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3002.0, down -2.15%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5620.8, down -1.6%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 40.62, down -1.41%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 38.39, down -2.98%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already seen Australian Inflation Rate YoY Q3 (Actual 0.7% v Forecast 0.6%) and QoQ Q3 (Actual 1.6% v Forecast 1.4%). Earlier we have also had September German Import Prices YoY (Actual -4.3% v Forecast -4.2%) and MoM (Actual 0.3% v Forecast -0.4%) alongside Turkish Economic Confidence Index for October (Actual 92.8 v Forecast 85.1), the CBRT Inflation Report plus French Consumer Confidence (Actual 94 v Forecast 91) for October and the South African Inflation Rate YoY (Actual 3.0% v Forecast 3.2%) for September. Spanish Retail Sales for September MoM (Actual -0.3% v Forecast -2.7%) and YoY (Actual -3.3% v Forecast -4.3%) was also just released onto the wires.

 

Looking forward to the morning session, Italian PPI for September YoY (Previous -3.3% v Forecast -4.3%) and MoM (Previous -0.3% v Forecast -2.7%) is released at 10:00 GMT with the MPC Meeting Summary from Turkey released at 11:00 GMT.

 

This afternoon we start with US Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv (Previous 0.4% v Forecast 0.2%) and US Goods Trade Balance Adv (Previous $-83.11B v Forecast $-80B) both for September. Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision follows at 14:00 GMT with US Weekly Oil data released at 14:30 GMT.

 

This evening, the Brazilian Interest Rate Decision is at 21:00 GMT with no change expected from current 2%, alongside the Business Confidence data release from South Korea (Previous 68 v Forecast 68) for October. Japanese Retail Sales YoY (Previous -1.9% v Forecast -6.0%) and MoM (Previous 4.6% v Forecast 1.5%) for September follows at 23:50 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.1809 for 1.1732
Short-term view: EURUSD resistance comes in at 1.1809 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1732 enter at 1.1784. Above 1.1809 to open 1.1825

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2963 for 1.3042
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.2963 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3042 enter at 1.2989. Below 1.2963 to open 1.2926

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 104.57 for 103.74
Short-term view: USDJPY resistance comes in at 104.57 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 103.74 enter at 104.3. Above 104.57 to open 104.74

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7146 for 0.7113
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 0.7146 and we see a dip to 0.7113 enter at 0.7135. Above 0.7146 to open 0.7163

 
 
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