Wednesday, October 21, 2020

FX Strategy 21 Oct 2020

 
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FX Strategy 21 Oct 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and NZD are the top gainers today, up 0.72% and 0.56% versus the dollar while JPY and USD are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading stronger today. The US 10-year was trading at 0.824, up 3.8bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.211, up 2.3bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.032, up 1.2bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.59, up 0.8bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading stronger today. The Hang Seng was trading at 24790.5, up 0.9%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23639.46, up 0.31%. The Kospi was trading at 2370.86, up 0.53%. In the European equities, indices were trading mixed today. The DAX 30 was trading at 12739.35, up 0.02%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3228.63, up 0.02%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5888.65, down -0.01%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the SP500 Futures was trading at 3447.38, up 0.44%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3220.0, down -0.19%. The FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5859.0, down -0.24%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 41.28, down -0.43%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 42.69, down -1.09%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already had Australian Westpac Leading Index MoM for September (Actual 0.2% v Forecast 0.2%). We have also seen multiple UK data releases for September, these included Inflation Rate YoY (Actual 0.5% v Forecast 0.4%) and MoM (Actual 0.4% v Forecast 0.3%) plus Public Sector Net Borrowing (Actual £-36.1B v Forecast £-32.4B) alongside Retail Price Index MoM (Actual 0.3% v Forecast 0.1%) and YoY (Actual 1.1% v Forecast 0.9%). For this morning's session, we have ECB's Lagarde, Lane and Guindos speaking at 07:30 GMT, 07:45 GMT and 10:00 GMT respectively. Mexican Unemployment Rate for September (Actual 5.2% v Forecast 5.2%) is released at 11:00 GMT.

 

Moving into the afternoon session, we start with Canadian Inflation RateYoY (Previous 0.1% v Forecast 0.3%) and MoM (Previous -0.1% v Forecast -0.1%) for September alongside August's Retail Sales MoM (Previous 0.6% v Forecast 1.1%) and YoY (Previous 2.7% v Forecast 4%). Bundesbank's Balz and Fed's Mester are then speaking separately at 14:00 GMT. Weekly US Oil data is then released at 14:30 GMT with ECB's Guindos speaking again at 16:00 GMT. The Fed's Beige Book is released at 18:00 GMT with RBA's Debelle speaking later at 22:30 GMT.

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1808 for 1.1889
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1808 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1889 enter at 1.1835. Below 1.1808 to open 1.1774

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.2946 for 1.305
Short-term view: GBPUSD support comes in at 1.2946 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.305 enter at 1.298. Below 1.2946 to open 1.2913

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 105.54 for 104.92
Short-term view: USDJPY resistance comes in at 105.54 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 104.92 enter at 105.34. Above 105.54 to open 105.72

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7047 for 0.71
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.7047 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 0.71 enter at 0.7064. Below 0.7047 to open 0.7021

 
 
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