Meet the new vulnerable Dems

Presented by Food & Water Action: Inside the Golden State political arena

Dec 13, 2024 View in browser   By Blake Jones and Dustin Gardiner Presented by  Adam Gray is among the Democrats who could soon be in Republicans’ crosshairs for 2026. | Rich Pedroncelli?AP Photo THE BUZZ: TO THE FRONT LINE — Democrats Adam Gray and Rep. Josh Harder defied a red shift in California this cycle, winning congressional districts that President-elect Donald Trump carried. But that feat could also place them in Republicans’ crosshairs for 2026. Incumbents whose district voted for the opposing party’s presidential candidate are often on the frontlines of the battle for House control. Such was the case for four GOP incumbents this year in California — three of which Democrats managed to oust. In an about-face from 2022, not one Republican scored a district in California this year that was also won by Vice President Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, Harder secured reelection by 3.6 percentage points in a district that Trump won by 1.8 points. And Gray ousted incumbent GOP Rep. John Duarte by less than 0.1 percentage points in CA-13, even as Trump flipped that district, winning it by 5.4 points, according to the election data analysis website California Target Book. That’s a testament to Trump’s improvement on his 2020 run in California, but also to Democrats’ successes in the state’s congressional battlegrounds in spite of the president-elect’s swelling support. Looking to the midterms, Republicans might salivate at the potential to make more inroads in California, where Trump took four more congressional districts this cycle than last. (Harris didn’t win any districts in her home state that Trump won in 2020.) National Republican Campaign Committee spokesperson Ben Petersen did not directly address the two Democrats’ vulnerability when asked. Instead, he said, “whether Democrats in tough districts survive 2026 depends whether they side with their extreme party to obstruct tax cuts and border security, or actually deliver for the American people.” Still, there remains an obvious obstacle for the GOP heading into the midterms: Trump won’t be on the ballot. And midterms are typically rough for the party that controls the White House. Just look at the Democratic wave that swept California's House races in 2018. Instead, California’s race for governor stands to be the main driver of turnout. It remains to be seen how much enthusiasm Democrats in that race will draw, but it’s difficult to conceive of any Republican who could enter and motivate conservatives to vote more than Trump did this year. Democrats who spoke with Playbook warned that the governor’s race, actions by the Trump White House, and the unpredictable ebbs and flows of the economy could all upend the 2026 congressional map — but they projected some qualified optimism. “The Republicans are going to come after those seats, but we feel we’re in a position to not only play defense but go on offense in other races,” said House Majority PAC spokesperson C.J. Warnke, naming Republicans Reps. Ken Calvert and Kevin Kiley among the organization’s 2026 targets. — with help from Melanie Mason GOOD MORNING. Happy Friday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and bjones@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @jonesblakej. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.   A message from Food & Water Action: Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals, endangering public health. Governor Newsom vowed to shut down Aliso Canyon, but his Public Utilities Commission appointees voted to expand it. The PUC will decide Aliso Canyon’s future on December 19th. Learn more.   ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON WHOSE TIMELINE? — Academics serving on Gov. Gavin Newsom’s artificial intelligence working group laid out a timeline this week to release their findings — but don’t expect lawmakers in Sacramento to wait with bated breath. Newsom created the working group in September after he vetoed SB 1047, state Sen. Scott Wiener’s major AI safety bill that drew attention beyond California’s borders for its potential to set national safety-testing standards for the largest AI models. Wiener told Playbook on Thursday that he plans to move forward on some form of AI safety legislation early next year. “We have a legislative calendar, and we’re going to stick to it,” Wiener said. “We’re a coequal branch. We’ll do our work, and we really look forward to seeing the work product coming from this task force.” As our boss Julia Marsh reported for POLITICO Pro, the study group expects to release a draft report this spring. But its final report could come as late as next summer — a tight timeline to shape AI regulatory bills before the end of the Legislature's session on Sept. 12. Newsom’s task force, the Joint California Policy Working Group on AI Frontier Models, is charged with studying the technology’s latest risks and capabilities. The panel includes experts at Stanford, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and UC Berkeley. Wiener said he’s still drafting his latest AI legislation and wasn’t ready to share details. The deadline for lawmakers to introduce bills is in mid-February (though they can use special procedures to sub in late proposals). “Obviously, in an ideal world, the recommendations would come earlier in the year,” Wiener said. “But the timing is what it is.”   Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today.     REPUBLICANLAND ‘BROKEN’ GOP? — Newly elected Assemblymember Carl DeMaio is out with a plan to reshape the California Republican Party in his image. Calling his party “broken,” he’s pushing for changes preferred by grassroots GOP activists including the elimination of proxy voting — in which delegates can have someone else vote on platform changes and other decisions on their behalf. He also wants to qualify an initiative for the 2026 ballot that would require voters to show proof of identification when casting their ballots. CLIMATE AND ENERGY TRUMP CARD — California’s climate policies are already falling prey to the next administration. Find out which regulations are feeling the squeeze in last night’s California Climate.   A message from Food & Water Action:   Top Talkers State Sen. Susan Rubio. | Leon Bennett/Getty Images for OneLegacy DEAL UNSEALED — A recently unsealed plea agreement suggests state Sen. Susan Rubio was tied to a sprawling bribery scheme involving marijuana dispensary permits while she was on the Baldwin Park City Council, the Los Angeles Times’ Anabel Sosa reports. Rubio, who matches the description of the official in the plea but is not explicitly named, denied wrongdoing through a spokesperson. DEADLY PURSUITS — The San Francisco Chronicle published an extensive investigation into fatalities resulting from police pursuits. As the paper’s Susie Neilson and Jennifer Gollan report, Black people account for more than a third of the people killed in police car chases — including fleeing drivers, passengers, bystanders and officers. Nationwide, more than 3,000 people died in police pursuits between 2017 and 2022.   Write your own chapter in the new Washington. From the Lame Duck Congress Series to New Administration insights, POLITICO Pro delivers intelligence across 22+ policy areas to help you anticipate and navigate change. Discover how a Pro subscription empowers you. Learn more today.     AROUND THE STATE — Netflix was once hailed for its generous parental leave policy. Not so much anymore. (The Wall Street Journal) — La Mesa, a suburb of San Diego, has achieved a rare feat: Women now make up a supermajority of the City Council, holding four out of five seats. (The San Diego Union-Tribune) — San Francisco’s budget analyst released a scathing report Thursday detailing accounting problems in the police department, including supervisors approving their own overtime. (The San Francisco Standard) — SF Muni Director Jeffrey Tumlin plans to resign next week, ending his five-year tenure leading the embattled transit agency. (KQED) PLAYBOOKERS PEOPLE MOVES — San Francisco Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie announced three key staff appointments: Staci Slaughter as his chief of staff (she was previously vice president for the SF Giants); Matthew Goudeau as deputy chief of staff (he’s a veteran City Hall adviser); and Han Zou as director of public affairs (he was Lurie’s campaign manager). BIRTHDAYS — Jose Torres at TechNet … Andrea Rosenthal, district director for Assemblywoman Pilar Schiavo … Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) … Todd S. Purdum … Google’s Riva Sciuto … Norbert Funke …  BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Thursday): Mayim Bialik WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.   A message from Food & Water Action: Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals. SoCalGas’ disaster forced thousands to evacuate their homes to avoid further exposure to cancer-causing benzene and other chemicals. SoCalGas took four months to seal the gas leak. Families near Aliso are still suffering the consequences. Instead of shutting it down like Gov. Newsom promised, the PUC allowed Aliso to expand by 3,000%, perpetuating the public health threat. Over 150 organizations have come together to call for a shutdown of Aliso by 2027, but the PUC is considering kicking the can down the road instead of protecting communities. Gov. Newsom and allies should stand with families, not SoCalGas’ profits. On December 19th, the PUC will decide the future of Aliso Canyon. Learn more.   CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.   Follow us on Twitter Dustin Gardiner @dustingardiner Tyler Katzenberger @TylerKatzen   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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