Friday, December 13, 2024

A Crazy Way to Make Money

Total Wealth

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Like It or Hate It... Crypto Is Here to Stay

Shah Gilani

Shah Gilani
Chief Investment Strategist

Here's a simple fact...

Cryptocurrencies, for all the hoopla and hype around them, don't have any real intrinsic value.

Not even Bitcoin, the so-called "king" of the digital currencies.

Sure, Bitcoin has a reputation... a backstory... and a sizable market cap. But at the end of the day, it's a speculative asset, driven by volatility, hype, the perception of scarcity, and the whims of traders.

It's not a store of real value or a productive asset like a company's stock.

The plain truth is, cryptocurrencies are priced on the expectation of future demand.

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Seattle Spheres on May 2018
 

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People trade them because they want to get rich - quick. And that's not a bad thing in a speculative market.

But let's not kid ourselves into thinking these digital tokens are somehow "backed" by anything tangible... or that they hold any inherent value that will stand the test of time.

Bitcoin's main claim to fame is its limited supply. Only 21 million Bitcoins will ever be mined.

This fixed supply is supposed to give Bitcoin a form of "digital scarcity," something that proponents tout as a hedge against inflation, similar to gold.

But scarcity alone doesn't make something valuable.

Bitcoin's value comes from the belief that other people will want it in the future, not from any intrinsic qualities of the Bitcoin network itself.

There is no underlying cash flow, no dividends, no physical asset tied to it - just faith that people will continue to want it.

And then there's the blockchain technology behind Bitcoin, which is often hailed as a revolution.

What's the Use?

Blockchain, as a decentralized ledger, has potential applications in many industries. However, the majority of cryptocurrencies don't actually serve as the end-user application in the way that, say, a smartphone serves as a useful tool.

Now, you might point to cryptocurrencies that enable smart contracts, like Ethereum, and say, "Well, there's real utility there."

And you'd be right... to a degree. Smart contract platforms have legitimate use cases, and blockchain technology could revolutionize industries like finance, supply chain, and healthcare.

But here's the thing... Ethereum and its ilk are still speculative assets.

People are betting on their future utility, not actually using the coins for anything practical right now.

The "Ethereum killer" coins? Even more speculative.

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The Mysterious VC Firm Behind Nvidia's Secret Weapon

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The market's full of copycats that promise to deliver the same technology but faster or cheaper, but who knows if any of them will work out in the long run.

The main thing going for crypto right now is the fact that the Trump administration, for all the political chaos it may bring, has already shown signs that it wants to legitimize cryptocurrencies.

Will they be regulated, legitimized, and taxed to the point of stripping away their speculative edge?

Or will they remain trading vehicles, driven primarily by hype and speculation?

It doesn't matter. I'm convinced cryptocurrencies will be legitimized one way or another.

Can't Be Stopped

Governments like the U.S. will not ignore them. They simply can't. We are likely to see more regulatory frameworks in the near future that will create a more structured environment for digital assets, reducing some of the risk of fraud and manipulation that's plagued the space.

While these measures might dampen the speculative exuberance a bit, it won't eliminate it. The more legitimacy crypto gets, the more institutional money will flow in, and the more liquid and volatile the market will become.

Again, crypto traders aren't holding these assets for dividends, cash flows, or real-world utility - they're holding them for price appreciation. And why not?

Everyone wants to get rich, and the volatility of the crypto markets offers opportunities to make big gains (or catastrophic losses).

This brings us to an important point...

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Trump Border Wall
Source: Wikimedia Commons

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The Trump administration isn't just going to make crypto a "real" asset class because anyone thinks it's the right thing to do. They'll do it because crypto can generate massive amounts of taxable income.

It's no secret that the government is looking at cryptocurrencies as a revenue stream. With crypto already being traded in massive volumes, the potential for taxes and regulatory fees is enormous.

The more crypto is legitimized, the more people will jump in, hoping to catch that magic bullet of fast wealth.

As long as people believe they can make money, they'll keep trading these coins.

It's a self-perpetuating cycle.

Whether you like it or hate it... crypto will continue to be a vehicle for getting rich.

Just don't ignore it.

Cheers,

Shah

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