Monday, November 18, 2024

Will the Trump resistance go digital?

Presented by Phenomena Global: Inside the Golden State political arena
Nov 18, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook Newsletter Header

By Tyler Katzenberger and Dustin Gardiner

Presented by Phenomena Global

State Sen. Scott Wiener watches a vote in the Senate.

State Sen. Scott Wiener, a San Francisco Democrat, told Playbook he's had a "series of meetings" with supporters and opponents of his sweeping AI safety bill from earlier this year "to try to figure out what kind of common ground we can come up with." | Rich Pendroncelli/AP

THE BUZZ: KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON — California lawmakers are gearing up for another push to regulate the tech industry, and some see President-elect Donald Trump’s reelection as a possible political advantage.

State lawmakers and others who want to protect data privacy, rein in social media and put guardrails on artificial intelligence have long argued it’s California’s job to push the envelope on tech policy when Congress doesn’t step up to the plate. That dynamic is unlikely to change in a Republican-controlled Washington, multiple Golden State tech watchers told Playbook — especially given Trump’s notoriously erratic governing style has a history of sowing disruption in Congress rather than order.

“I have no confidence it will be handled at the federal level because Congress has not passed significant tech regulation, other than banning TikTok, in more than 25 years,” said state Sen. Scott Wiener. “Trump's election takes it to the next level.”

The San Francisco Democrat has already said he plans to continue fighting to mitigate potential risks AI poses to the public after his controversial bill that would have required large-scale models to undergo safety testing failed to win Gov. Gavin Newsom’s favor last session. Newsom paired his veto with a promise to convene a working group to develop “common sense guardrails” for AI but didn’t give specifics.

Wiener's argument — that Sacramento needs to step up where Washington won’t — looks stronger this time around. Trump is likely to repeal President Joe Biden’s 2023 executive order aimed at increasing government oversight of AI companies, killing one of the few federal actions taken so far to check the emerging technology. And late last week, the president-elect declared that North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, his pick to lead the Interior Department, will head a new council to achieve “ENERGY DOMINANCE” and “win the A.I. arms race.”

“If he's talking about rolling back what's even in the Biden executive order, then that's a negative, right?” said Kristina Bas Hamilton , a consultant for labor and progressive groups who worked in support of Wiener’s AI safety bill. “Hopefully it would add more urgency to those members that didn't want to take action or voted no on the bill.”

Other issues of concern for California lawmakers are data privacy and internet equity protections, both of which lack support from key Republican decision-makers in Trump’s orbit.

Assemblymember Mia Bonta, a Bay Area Democrat whose push to codify internet access rights for minority groups fell short last session, is already “deep in conversation” with state leaders and broadband equity advocates about next steps, Bonta spokesperson Daniel McGreevy said in a text message.

And on the privacy front, Assemblymember Rebecca Bauer-Kahan told Playbook she’s concerned about protections for health care tools, including AI-powered tools, that collect patient data about reproductive health in case congressional Republicans pass a national abortion ban. Trump in October vowed to veto any federal abortion ban, but the Bay Area Democrat isn’t letting her guard down.

“They want to take our rights away in California,” she said. “I don't know what that will look like, but I'm concerned that we need to protect people who are accessing that much-needed health care.”

Yet don’t expect opposition to Trump to be the driving force behind California’s tech regulation efforts. Assemblymember Josh Lowenthal, who pulled legislation that would have fined social media companies for negligently harming kids after it was watered down this summer, said he’s willing to “work with anybody” — even the Trump administration — open to protecting youth mental health from dangers posed by social media.

“If the administration is willing to work on these things and welcomes the state of California to lead the way, then we're happy to do it,” the Long Beach Democrat told Playbook. ”The only metric that matters here is outcomes for youth mental health.”

It’s unclear whether Lowenthal will have a helping hand in Washington. Republicans in Congress have been open to bills that protect kids’ safety online, but Trump’s approach to social media policy has historically focused on protecting free expression and limiting content moderation.

GOOD MORNING. Happy Monday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and tkatzenberger@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @TylerKatzen.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

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SAN FRANCISCO

Bilal Mahmood pic

San Francisco Supervisor-elect Bilal Mahmood appears at a victory celebration he held with supporters last week. | Courtesy Bilal Mahmood

CENTER SHIFT — San Francisco Supervisor Dean Preston , one of the most visible socialists holding a local office in America, was ousted in the election — a major blow to the Democratic Socialists of America movement in one of the most liberal major cities.

Preston was defeated by Bilal Mahmood, a moderate Democrat and tech entrepreneur, in a race that drew outsize national attention. Preston was endorsed by liberal powerhouses like Sen. Bernie Sanders and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The incumbent was also attacked by conservative firebrands like billionaire Elon Musk.

Mahmood chatted with Playbook after the ranked-choice election was called last week. Highlights from his take on what the victory means for Democrats, both local and nationally:

Playbook: You defeated a member of the DSA in one of San Francisco’s most progressive supervisorial districts (which includes the Haight Ashbury, Tenderloin and Lower Pacific Heights). What does that say to you about the direction of the party?

Bilal Mahmood: “No one cares about progressive and moderate labels. They really just want to focus on the basics. Dean never talked about safety. He never talked about the fentanyl crisis. People want to be seen on these basic issues. If you don’t focus on those basics, you’re going to be voted out.”

Playbook: Do you think there’s a national lesson for Democrats as San Franciscans shift closer to the center in recent elections, yours included?

Mahmood: “From my standpoint, I didn’t run as a progressive or moderate. I ran as a pragmatic politician. Voters didn’t change their priorities of what issues or values are most important to them. They don’t care about ending capitalism. They care about having a grocery store. They care about safely crossing the street. They need people talking about the actual issues on the ground, rather than just theoretical constructs. It’s the same progressive values, but you’re also focused on solutions that deliver on those values.”

Playbook: Progressives in the city and your opponent have focused on spending in your race, arguing that mega donors bought the election. What role did money play?

Mahmood: “That’s, I think, a mistake in the narrative because it was net neutral. Money is not the deciding factor in these races.”

(Grow SF, a moderate advocacy group with wealthy tech donors, spent $308,000 to oppose Preston through an outside independent-expenditure group. That said, Preston raised about $100,000 more than Mahmood for his candidate committee and labor unions spent another $200,000 opposing Mahmood.)

Preston, who previously worked as a tenant attorney, hasn’t said what he plans to do after leaving office. In a statement, he hinted he’s not leaving the political arena: “No doubt we are living through difficult times, and you can count on me to keep fighting for working people.”

 

The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now.

 
 
SACTOWN

BIG FISHING — Actum, the global consulting and lobbying firm led by high-powered figures in Washington, New York and London, as well as Los Angeles and Sacramento, is acquiring one of the California Capitol’s most familiar faces.

Scott Wetch and his firm — Carter, Wetch and Associates — exclusively told POLITICO’s Christopher Cadelago that he is joining Actum’s growing operations in Sacramento. Wetch, a leading lobbyist for powerful labor unions who also represents corporate giants like Amazon and Verizon, will bolster the Sacramento footprint of Actum, which was founded in late 2021 by former partners who defected from Mercury Public Affairs.

Wetch’s move to Actum follows high-profile acquisitions and mergers in the public affairs space in California, as established figures plan their successions and look for off-ramps and global companies scramble for an edge.

In May, POLITICO reported that Lucas Public Affairs, was acquired by Public Policy Holding Company for $7.5 million, including $6 million in cash and the rest in stock. That came a year and a half after the company acquired KP Public Affairs, the Sacramento-based lobbying and public affairs firm, for an initial price of $11.4 million.

But Wetch, 57, said he has no plans to leave lobbying anytime soon, predicting he’ll work for at least another decade. At Actum, he’ll be free to focus on clients — from electrical workers, and plumbers to dentists and medical groups — without needing to dedicate time to running his own business. He said he was joining a company that is prioritizing innovation and leveraging new technology to serve clients in public affairs, legislative strategy and regulatory advocacy.

“I needed to join with folks who are really at the cutting edge,” Wetch said. “What made this work well is that our client lists meshed well. There weren’t a lot of issues there.”

Read more from Chris on Wetch’s big move.

ELECTION RESULTS

Derek Tran crosses his arms and poses for a portrait.

Democrat Derek Tran, an Army veteran and attorney, currently leads incumbent GOP. Rep Michelle Steel by just 36 votes. | Tran campaign

HOUSE RACE UPDATES — All eyes are on California’s last two uncalled House races, both of which are separated by a razor-thin margin as vote tabulations come down to the wire. The results will determine the size of Republicans’ tight margin in the chamber. Here’s where things stand as of Sunday evening:

— Democrat Derek Tran is currently leading incumbent Republican Rep. Michelle Steel by a mere 36 votes in their battle for an Orange County district. Democrats have mounted a sizable volunteer ballot-curing operation to support Tran. California election data expert Paul Mitchell anticipates there are about 13,000-14,000 ballots left to count in the district, the majority of which are in Orange County.

— GOP Rep. John Duarte continues to hold a narrow lead of about 2,000 votes over Democrat Adam Gray in his bid to hold a Central Valley district. There are still about 30,000 estimated votes left to count, most of which are in Merced and Stanislaus counties, according to California Target Book.

 

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CLIMATE AND ENERGY

Jay Inslee speaks to the press.

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee and other leaders speak to the press on March 28, 2020, in Seattle, Washington. | Karen Ducey/Getty Images

HE'S STILL IN — Some say the mood at COP29 is bleaker than usual this year. Not Washington Gov. Jay Inslee. He's at U.N. climate talks in Azerbaijan burnishing his state's climate leadership as a counterpoint to Trump. Read about how he's experiencing Baku in Friday's California Climate .

 

Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy.

 
 
TOP TALKERS

Laphonza Butler speaks onstage at the CNN-POLITICO Grill.

Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) told POLITICO's Melanie Mason over the weekend that chairing the Democratic National Convention "is not a prospect" for her at the moment. | Rod Lamkey Jr. for POLITICO

OUT OF THE RUNNING — As Democrats grapple with their painful election losses, outgoing California Sen. Laphonza Butler’s name has been bandied about as a potential new leader for the Democratic National Committee. But, as she told Melanie Mason this weekend , “it is not a prospect for me at this time." Butler said her next moves are TBD, but she said she and her family will at least be staying in D.C. until the end of the school year for her daughter, who is currently in fourth grade.

NEWSOM’S NEW DIGS — The governor and First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom are moving into a $9.1 million mansion tucked away in the Marin County woodlands, the San Francisco Standard reported Friday. The six-bedroom property features a swimming pool, spa and floor-to-ceiling windows with views of nearby Mt. Tamalpais. The Newsoms will split time between Marin County and Sacramento, as our Christopher Cadelago first reported back in June.

MPOX ALERT — California Department of Health officials on Saturday announced the first U.S. case of an emerging mpox strain (formerly known as monkeypox) has been confirmed in San Mateo County, POLITICO’s Irie Senter reports for Pro subscribers . This variant, known as clade I mpox, is more severe than the clade II mpox strain that made national headlines two years ago amid a global outbreak. The San Mateo County individual had previously traveled to East Africa and is currently isolating at home.

AROUND THE STATE

— New data shows the gap in median rent prices between San Francisco and Oakland is widening. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— California and Nevada both voted on ballot measures to ban involuntary servitude. Why did one fail while the other passed? (Los Angeles Times)

— Bay Area leaders want Newsom to make BART safer, but there’s a split on how he should help. (KQED)

A message from Phenomena Global:

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PLAYBOOKERS

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Daniel Lippman, a White House and Washington reporter for POLITICO and former POLITICO Playbook co-author, and Sophia Narrett, an artist who shows with LA-based Kohn Gallery and Perrotin, recently welcomed a baby girl. Pic

BIRTHDAYS — Citlalli Ortiz of Assemblymember Jesse Gabriel’s office … California Faculty Association’s Bryan Ha Megyn Kelly

BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Sunday): consultant Tal Eslick (favorite cake: “carrot, ideally the piece with the frosting carrot”) … (was Friday): Molly O’Toole … (was Thursday): Stanley Treitel ... Edward A. Klein

WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com.

 

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