News: What’s left to call in the battle for the House

Monday, November 18, 2024

What’s left to call in the battle for the House

Nov 18, 2024

TOP LINE

Republicans clinched the House majority. But the size of their conference is still up in the air as a handful of key races remain uncalled.

Republicans have won 218 seats and Democrats have won 212, as of early Monday morning. But with some Republican vacancies on the way, thanks to Donald Trump’s picks for his administration, the margin for the early weeks of Congress will be very tight. Democrats boosted their numbers over the weekend when The Associated Press called CA-09 for Democratic Rep. Josh Harder , who fended off a challenge from Republican Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln. The AP also called ME-02 for Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, who narrowly prevailed over Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault. Because of the slim margin, Theriault’s campaign requested a recount, which “would begin around Thanksgiving and continue into December,” per The AP. Recounts rarely change the outcome of a race.

Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska).

Democratic Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola's race is still uncalled. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Here are the races we’re still waiting on. All vote totals and percentages are from The AP:

— AK-AL: Vote counting is still underway in Alaska, which relies heavily on mail-in ballots. Vote counting goes through Nov. 20, and the state elections department has estimated that there are around 9,000 ballots remaining. If no candidate earns a majority of the vote on Wednesday, ranked choice tabulation will be conducted.

Although this process is still underway, Republican Nick Begich declared victory over the weekend. He is currently ahead of Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola by more than 2 percentage points , though he is still short of the 50 percent threshold to avoid the ranked choice runoff. Eric Hafner, the other Democrat on the ballot who is currently in prison in New York, is currently in last place, meaning his votes will be reallocated, depending on who his voters chose as their second pick. If no candidate hits 50 percent at that point, it will go to another round, in which Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe’s votes will be reallocated to either Begich or Peltola.

Results are also outstanding for an initiative that would repeal the state’s open primary and ranked choice voting system. The vote to repeal it is currently 0.2 percentage points ahead of the vote to keep the system.

— CA-13: California is notoriously slow with its vote count, due to election officials having 30 days after Election Day to complete the count.

In this race between Republican Rep. John Duarte and former Democratic state Assemblymember Adam Gray, Duarte leads by around 1 point — around 2,000 votes — with 86 percent of the expected vote in. Thousands of ballots remain to be counted, and the next results from counties in the district are expected in the evening today, tomorrow and Wednesday, per the secretary of state.

A recount may be requested within five days of Dec. 6.

— CA-45: Democrat Derek Tran and Republican Rep. Michelle Steel are tied at 50 percent, with 94 percent of the vote in. Tran currently has 36 more votes than Steel.

The district includes parts of Los Angeles and Orange counties, where there are more than 140,000 ballots remaining (though they are not all for this district). Expect the next batch of results this evening.

— IA-01: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is slightly ahead of former Democratic state Rep. Christina Bohannan, 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent, or just over 800 votes, with 99 percent of the vote in.

Miller-Meeks has already declared victory, though Bohannan said she will be requesting a recount. Recounts must be conducted “as expeditiously as reasonably possible,” according to Iowa state law.

— OH-09: Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur narrowly leads Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin by over 1,000 votes, 48.1 percent to 47.8 percent, with 99 percent in.

Kaptur has declared victory, but the race could go to a recount. There were around 8,000 outstanding provisional and absentee ballots as of Friday, and the final counties are expected to certify their results on Wednesday. If the result falls within half a percentage point, it will head to an automatic recount. A recount can also be requested within five days of results being certified if the result is larger than a half percentage point margin.

— Non-House races: The AP called the Pennsylvania Senate race for Republican Dave McCormick a while ago, but the race is subject to a recount because he finished less than half a percentage point ahead of Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. The recount results will be posted Nov. 27.

Republicans are also waging a legal battle, arguing that counties should not count undated or misdated mail-in ballots, as is the law in the state, which has been the center of a yearslong legal fight. But four county election boards have voted to count those ballots, anyway.

In the Wisconsin Senate race, Republican Eric Hovde last week said he was considering requesting a recount, which would have to come this week if he decides to do so. The AP previously called the race for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

A nail-biter of a race is also still underway in North Carolina, where Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs faces a challenge from Republican Appeals Court Judge Jefferson Griffin. Republicans flipped the court in 2022, clinching a 5-2 majority. Griffin was ahead of Riggs during most of the aftermath of Election Day, though a batch of votes on Friday gave her a 24 vote lead . Some counties still need to complete their final canvassing this week. The deadline for the trailing candidate to request a recount is Tuesday, should the race remain within half a percentage point or fewer than 10,000 votes.

Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the 2025 election: 351

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

SPECIAL ELECTION SCRAMBLE — Republican John Frankman is running in FL-01 in the upcoming special election to succeed former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned after Trump tapped him to be attorney general. Frankman, a former Green Beret, highlighted being “forced out of the military for refusing to take COVID shot” in announcing his bid.

Keith Gross, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Rick Scott in the GOP primary earlier this year and largely self-funded his bid, filed with the FEC for the seat.

A date for the special primary election and special election for this deep-red seat has not been determined yet. Gaetz is not planning to endorse in the primary, his father (a state senator) told Florida Politics’ Peter Schorsch .

… RELATED: RNC co-chair Lara Trump said she would “strongly consider” joining the Senate, should Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis choose her to succeed Sen. Marco Rubio, whom Trump asked to be secretary of state. “I think it would be great to have another young mom, alongside [Alabama Sen.] Katie Britt, there in the United States Senate,” she said on “Fox and Friends Weekend ,” adding that she hasn’t been asked yet. Scott, among others, have expressed their support for her.

COMEBACK SEASON? — Outgoing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who lost his reelection bid to Republican Sen.-elect Bernie Moreno, said he has “not ruled anything out” when it comes to running in the special election to fill the rest of Vice President-elect JD Vance’s term in 2026, he told POLITICO’s Eugene Daniels. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine will appoint a successor — almost certainly a Republican — after Vance resigns, until the 2026 special election.

… Former Republican Reps. Madison Cawthorn and Chris Collins are both interested in FL-19, should Republican Rep. Byron Donalds “pursue the governorship or other opportunities,” per Punchbowl News’ Melanie Zanona. DeSantis is term-limited and can’t run for reelection in 2026. Cawthorn represented North Carolina when he was in Congress, and Collins, who served time in prison for insider trading, represented New York. Both now live in Florida.

THANKS, BUT NO THANKS — Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) is planning to stay in the Senate and run for reelection in 2026, amid rumors that Trump could pick her to serve as agriculture secretary.

IN THE STATES — Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer launched his bid for next year’s race for New Jersey governor. Gottheimer, “a centrist House Democrat and prolific fundraiser who has won races in tough election cycles while angering his party’s progressives,” POLITICO’s Matt Friedman writes, is up against a crowded Democratic field to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.

PULL UP A CHAIR — Democrats whose names have been floated for DNC chair are shooting the prospect down. California Sen. Laphonza Butler told POLITICO’s Melanie Mason that “it is not a prospect for me at this time.” And Murphy isn’t interested either, according to NJ Advance Media’s Brent Johnson.

… Rep. Nikema Williams (D-Ga.), the chair of Democratic Party of Georgia, is “setting the stage to step down as chair … amid growing pressure from prominent donors, activists and officials who demanded she relinquish the role ahead of tough 2026 midterm elections,” per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein . “Williams, first elected to the volunteer role in 2019, said Friday that she endorsed a new policy that makes the party chair a paid full-time job. If those changes are adopted by party activists, as expected, it would likely mean Williams would bow out as chair early next year rather than heed the more immediate requests to quit.”

THE CASH DASH

PAC IT UP — “Trump’s team — convinced that the Senate GOP campaign arm and its top allied super PAC are hiring ‘Never Trumpers’ for key roles — is preparing to launch its own super PAC to compete in the next round of Senate races in 2026, according to two close allies of the president-elect,” POLITICO’s Natalie Allison, Ally Mutnick and Adam Wren report . “The plan, if carried out, would upend the party’s traditional method of competing in Senate races and could cause major discord among powerful GOP financial players — pitting Trump and his new regime against longtime GOP donors seeking to influence competitive Senate races. The move could disperse money across multiple entities and hinder the Senate Leadership Fund, a group that was created to be a centralized GOP clearinghouse for Senate spending.

“Neither the NRSC nor SLF have publicly confirmed who will be running the organizations for the 2026 cycle,” though Stephen DeMaura, a former campaign adviser to Mike Pence, “is expected to be the next executive director of the NRSC, according to three people familiar with the decision” and “longtime Republican consultant Kevin McLaughlin is under consideration to be the next president of SLF. Three people who have spoken with McLaughlin told POLITICO that he said he is in the running for the position. … Any decision on the SLF president for the 2026 cycle is weeks away, according to a person familiar with the hiring process.”

Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy.

STAFFING UP

— Pollster J. Ann Selzer is leaving election polling and ending her decadeslong partnership with The Des Moines Register, she said Sunday. She’ll be “transition[ing] to other ventures and opportunities.”

“The Iowa poll has taken on a near-mythical status over the past two decades, mostly driven by the state’s role in the presidential nominating process,” POLITICO’s Steve Shepard writes . “The Register is ‘evaluating the best ways to continue surveys that will provide accurate information and insight about issues that matter to Iowans,’ the paper’s editor, Carol Hunter, wrote in a column published Sunday.”

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I just moved into my new office! Yes it’s a bare wall windowless transition space in the basement that looks like the set of the show Severance, but that won’t stop me from being proud of what it took to get here to the Senate and excited for the opportunity.” — Sen.-elect Andy Kim (D-N.J.) on his new digs.

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